DR CHAD
5 units on GREEN BAY and INDY.
3 units on ARIZONA STATE.
TSC Rest of the 2007-2008 NFL/NCAA Football Season1/22/07
2/14/08
11/22/07
NFL
20* Featured Play: Detroit +3.5 (104)
ANALYSIS:
This play is at a price of -120.
11/24/07
CFB
20* Featured Play: Kentucky -2.5 (150)
Trushel Sports is passing in the CFB on 11/22/07
North Coast Power Sweep...
2*.....Green Bay
Projected Score:...Dallas 34-10
Northcoast
2 Dallas -14
Top Usc U 49 Marq.
Top G B -3- Marq.
Reg G B U 47
Reg Atl. + 11-
Reg Dallas U 47
Reg Alt. U 41
Reg U S C -3
Uncle Phi's Play
3 G B -3-
Gold Medal Club
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NFL: All rated 15*
Green Bay -1.5 First half
OVER 23.5
Dallas UNDER 48
Indy -11.5
OVER 41
lem banker
det-----
jets-----
atlanta
dr bob
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3* Arizona St +3.5, 2* at +3 or worse.
3* LSU -13.5 or better
Dr. Bob..2*...Detroit
Marc Lawrence
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Det
Boys
Atlanta
Johnathan Stone
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Usc -3
Neri Sports
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3* Az State
2* Detroit
2* Dallas
1* Atlanta
Confirmed
Pork Chop
3* Ariz. St.
wunderdog
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Game: New York Jets at Dallas (Thursday 11/22 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on New York Jets +14
This is a potential letdown spot for both teams. The Jets are coming off a big win vs. the Steelers. Meanwhile the Cowboys are off a tough divisional game vs. Washington with their biggest remaining game of the year on-deck (next Thursday vs. the 9-1 Packers). That game vs. the Pack will in all liklihood determine homefield advantage for the playoffs in the NFC. It would be very difficult to expect the Cowboys to be up for this game vs. the Jets. The Cowboys showed that they are susceptible to the letdown (remember the MNF game vs. Buffalo prior to the Cowboys' game vs. New England?). While most view New York as a !BAD! team, we think they are not so terrible. We saw a change earlier this season in Buffalo when they were forced to use Edwards at QB, and we are now seeing a change in the Jets under Clemens. It would be hard to think the Jets defense could keep them in the game, but this team held the Steelers to 16 points. The fact is the Jets have been in every game they have played outside of the opener vs. New England. Save that game, the Jets have played !GOOD! and have been within 11 points of everyone on their schedule. The last two weeks vs. !GOOD2! teams (Washington and Pittsburgh), Clemens was at the helm and the Jets scored evenly 39-39. One could argue they are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now, and getting 14 from an opponent that is likely to be sleeping, provides a lot of value. Double-digit road underdogs vs. a team performing very well have covered at a 74% clip including 1-0 this season. Five teams have won games outright this season as a 7+ point underdog and three of the five have covered the next game, so don't expect a Jets letdown, expect the opposite on the national stage. J-E-T-S-Jets-Jets-Jets!
Game: Indianapolis at Atlanta (Thursday 11/22 8:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +11.5
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 41 -110
Indianpolis has fallen on very hard times. After starting 7-0 and 6-1 ATS, they lost a very important game to New England at home. That was the start of a downward spiral that includes injuries to key players such as Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, Anthjony Gonzalez and Tony Ugoh. And, other players have not playing like themselves (Manning, Vinatieri, Clark). After the New England loss, they went on to lose to San Diego and had a major scare vs. Kansas City last week. Marvin Harrison will again be out and this past week, the Colts lost Dwight Freeney for the season. This is a repeat of last season when they started out invincible only to post a 2-4 mark from mid November to mid December. This team will be back come playoffs but right now they just aren't right. Peyton Manning has thrown 7 interceptions the past two weeks to just two touchdowns. And the running game has also faltered. After averaging 138 yards per game through their first eight games, the Colts gained just 141 total yards on the ground in their last two games. The Falcons are off a terrible loss to Tampa Bay. They bring back Joey Harrington which is actually a good thing as Leftwhich has been even worse. Their only wins this season have come with Harrington under center. With their stars underperforming, riddled with key injuries, and having a short week to heal and correct things, should the Colts be laying double digits on the road? We don't think so. Yes, it's scary to back Atlanta, especially after their performance last week. But, we track a system that backs certain teams after a really bad performance that's in play here. This system has hit a 61% rate long term and it's 30-16 (65%) this year! Atlanta has played solid defense all season long. They are ranked 15th in defense overall and have kept four opponents to 16 points or less. The most points they have given up was last week thanks to a rare defensive touchdown. The Colts, as mentioned, are trending downward on offense. While scoring 32 points per game in their first seven games, they have averaged just 18 per game their last three. With their offense sagging, and still suffering from injuries, we expect their offense to again be sub-par. Our computer matchup for this game predicts 39 points. We agree that this one will come in UNDER the posted total. The Colts are 6-0 UNDER the pat three seasons on the road vs. non-conference foes. The Falcons are 18-7 UNDER at home the pat two seasons including 9-1 UNDER after having lost 4+ games out of their last six. We'll take the big double digit home dog in this one as well as the UNDER.
wunderdog ncaa football
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Game: U S C at Arizona State (Thursday 11/22 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Arizona State +3
With Oregon's loss to Arizona, Arizona State holds their fate in their own hands. They lead the Pac 10 with jus tone loss. If they can win their final two games, both at home, they secure their BCS spot. So, they are sufficiently motivated to win this game on Thanksgiving. The Sun Devils are undefeated at home and 5-1 ATS. At home they are winning by an average score of 38.5 to 17. They haven't fared well against USC in the win-loss column but they have competed, having covered the last two games ATS vs. much superior Trojans teams. Last season they lost by just a touchdown in Southern California as a 19 point underdog. ASU has had two weeks to prepare for this all-important game and they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games coming off a bye. USC has won two in a row after falling to Oregon. But, the Trojans are 0-6 ATS this year and last following two straight wins. Arizona State is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 at home off a road win. Dennis Erickson, despite what you think of him, is very tough in close games. Teams he has coached are 13-4 ATS when the line is -3 to +3. He's also 31-14 ATS in all home games including 221-10 ATS vs. conference foes. We like Arizona State to win this one or keep it very close.
Game: Nebraska at Colorado (Friday 11/23 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Nebraska +4
Colorado's had an up-and down season. They put together back-to-back stinkers early in the year to Arizona State and Florida State but then turned around and beat Miami Ohio by 42 and shocked Oklahoma. They have lost four of their last five games, allowing 35.6 points per game. Nebraska has also had an up-and-down season, starting 4-1 and then losing five in a row before beating Kansas State 73-31 last week. So, these teams aren't that different. The thing that scares us about backing the team laying points here is that they are scoring just 24 points per game on the year (19.8 at home) while giving up 27.5 per game at home and over 37 per game in their last three games. This defense is crummy and getting worse. And, the offense, under a freshman QB, doesn't have the firepower to put up a lot. Nebraska's defense is also bad but they have some momentum. Teams allowing 35+ points per game coming off a 21+ point win are 34-8 ATS the past ten seasons. And the Buffs are 0-8 ATS when coming off a road game under Dan Hawkins. We think Nebraska has at least an equal shot at winning this game so we'll back them with the points cushion.
Game: Mississippi at Mississippi State (Friday 11/23 12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Mississippi +6.5
If you look at the records, this looks like a no-brainer win for Miss State. They are 6-5 and have a couple quality wins vs. league foes while Ole Miss was shut-out during SEC play with nothing to show in the win column. But we actually feel that the difference between these teams is not that great. Ole Miss has been competitive all season long. They were within 10 of LSU with under three minutes to go, lost to Florida by 6, Alabama by 3, Missouri by 13, and Auburn by 14. They, for the most part, have played great and been very competitive. Miss State is 1-8 ATS in home games off a loss to a conference rival the last three years, and 5-16 ATS in home games after gaining 100 yards or less. They are also just 5-15 ATS after a game where they have had a turnover margin of -3 or worse. Road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points returning 8+ starters on offense have covered 65% of the time (65-35) when pitted against a defense that has returned five or fewer starters. We will ride the dog in this one, as the intense rivalry is the equalizer.
Game: Toledo at Bowling Green (Friday 11/23 2:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toledo +7
This line started at 4.5 and has climbed to the magic 7 number as the money pours in on Bowling Green. BG has won three in a row in convincing fashion while Toledo is off a 21 point loss. But, we think this is an overreaction to one game for Toledo. That loss was a tough road game against a better opponent. Prior to that loss, they had won three straight SU and ATS, averaging 55 points per game. This is a big-time offense that can surpass what Bowling Green can do. Defense is another matter as BG has a clear advantage there. We just feel 7 points is too much considering BG is 1-10 ATS in their last eleven home games. We like the Rockets plus the points.
Game: Boise State at Hawaii (Friday 11/23 9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Boise State +3
There is obviously a lot at stake in this game between two 10-win teams. The outright conference Championship will be decided as well as a potential BCS berth. Boise State is no stranger to the big stage. They have a career 52-3 mark in WAC games and this team is stocked year after year. The last three weeks they have really turned it up a notch, winning by a combined 152-21 margin. Outside of their game vs. Nevada and loss to Washington, the Broncos have not been challenged. If you take out that game with Nevada they are allowing only 13.4 ppg. The big question mark for Hawaii is the status and effectiveness of QB Colt Brennan. He was forced to sit out almost the entire game last week with a concussion. Boise State has not had trouble putting away good offensive teams, as they are 18-4 ATS in their last 24 games vs. teams that average 425+ yards per game. Meanwhile Hawaii has struggled against teams that average 6.25+ yards per play as they are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. such opponents. Hawaii has been an escape artist this season, as they have had four near-misses, winning by margins of 1, 2, 7 and another game in OT. Boise State is 25-8 ATS the past decade vs. winning teams including 15-4 ATS vs. teams scoring 31+ ppg. They have better defense, just as much offense, and we expect they do what they do in big games - win!
