HAPPY THANKSGIVING !!!! THUR SERVICE PLAYS
- Thread starter goldengreek
- Start date
Steven Budin-ceo
THURSDAY'S PICK
25 DIME PLAY
GREEN BAY PACKERS
A note from Steve Budin:
Guys, since we're up 792.5 dimes with these releases I want you to spend a little extra coin and buy down the 1/2 point in the following scenarios: This line is floating between 3 and 4 points. So if you've got Green Bay at -3 I want you to buy them down to -2 1/2 so you still win if they prevail by a field goal. And if you get Green Bay at -3 1/2, buy down to -3 so you get a push with a field goal.
This is still a play at Green Bay -4 as well, but once again, we are putting our profit to work for us by buying a little insurance and maximizing the odds in our favor if the line is under 4.
Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry that too many gamblers and handicappers needlessly buy half points on all types of numbers. But the ONLY number that matters from a bookmaker's perspective is 3 because of overtime and that's why its the only number they (bookmakers) charge the extra juice for. Once again, we're using the power of money - our profit of 792 dimes - against the bookmaker in this case.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.
THURSDAY'S PICK
25 DIME PLAY
GREEN BAY PACKERS
A note from Steve Budin:
Guys, since we're up 792.5 dimes with these releases I want you to spend a little extra coin and buy down the 1/2 point in the following scenarios: This line is floating between 3 and 4 points. So if you've got Green Bay at -3 I want you to buy them down to -2 1/2 so you still win if they prevail by a field goal. And if you get Green Bay at -3 1/2, buy down to -3 so you get a push with a field goal.
This is still a play at Green Bay -4 as well, but once again, we are putting our profit to work for us by buying a little insurance and maximizing the odds in our favor if the line is under 4.
Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry that too many gamblers and handicappers needlessly buy half points on all types of numbers. But the ONLY number that matters from a bookmaker's perspective is 3 because of overtime and that's why its the only number they (bookmakers) charge the extra juice for. Once again, we're using the power of money - our profit of 792 dimes - against the bookmaker in this case.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.
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PAUL LEINER
HAPPY THANKSGIVING FULL CARD
50* comes in easily and today I have three Football winners for you.
50* Over Bobcats/Wizards
20* NFL Over 47 Det/GB
10* CFB USC -3
5* NFL Jets +14
HAPPY THANKSGIVING FULL CARD
50* comes in easily and today I have three Football winners for you.
50* Over Bobcats/Wizards
20* NFL Over 47 Det/GB
10* CFB USC -3
5* NFL Jets +14
Robert Ferringo
THANKSGIVING SELECTIONS
2-Unit Play. Take #103 Green Bay (-3) over Detroit (12:30 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 22)
I know that the Packers have had a horrendous time in Detroit as a favorite over the past few years but I think that this Lions team is reverting back to the Lions we?re used to. They can?t protect the quarterback and matchups ? pass defense vs. pass offense, etc. ? are statistically very one-sided. I think this line should be around -6.0 so we?re getting value here. I?m looking for the Packers to continue to roll.
COLLEGE SELECTIONS
5-Unit Play. Take #116 Mississippi State (-6.5) over Mississippi (12:30 p.m., Friday, Nov. 23)
Note: This is our SEC Game of the Year.
The home team has won seven of eight in this series and I just think that the Bulldogs are the more physical, more disciplined team. Ole Miss had a horrible letdown after their grueling Florida game early in the year and after a tough cover at home against LSU I?m looking for a similar deflation. Ole Miss is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games.
4-Unit Play. Take #150 Kentucky (-3) over Tennessee (1:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
It is always a huge red flag when an unranked team is favored over a ranked team. Tennessee is 1-3 on the road this year and got hammered by Alabama, California, and Florida. Kentucky has been the whipping boy in this series but are good enough to turn the tide. UK has covered three of four in this one and I?m looking for a double-digit win.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #133 Missouri (+2) over Kansas (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 23)
I believe that the Tigers are the better, more battle-tested team here and that playing in their home state is going to give them all the advantage they need. This is a value play, getting us the better team with the points, and I will be on the moneyline on this game as well.
3-Unit Play. Take #144 South Carolina (+3) over Clemson (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
Clemson had its bubble burst last weekend and I think that with two weeks to prepare Steve Spurrier is going to have his charges ready to roll in this rivalry game. The Tigers have owned this matchup recently but I think that this is a better USC team than we?ve seen in some time. This is also a statement about the SEC being better than the ACC.
3-Unit Play. Take #173 Ball State (-8.5) over Northern Illinois (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
These are two teams heading in opposite directions and Ball State has absolutely dominated on the road in this series. The Cardinals have been one of the best bets in college football this year and I think they make a statement win here to give themselves better positioning for a bowl game. NIU wants to throw the ball and play a high-scoring affair. That plays right into BSU's hands.
2-Unit Play. Take #190 Stanford (-3.5) over Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
Even though the Irish managed a win over feeble Duke last week I still think they are one of the worst teams in Division I. Stanford is no prize, but you know they?ve had this game circled and any team with the talent to beat USC is good enough to beat this Notre Dame squad.
NFL SELECTIONS
5-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 36.0 Buffalo at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The Jaguars have been a fantastic ?over? play in the 34.0 to 36.0 total range, covering nearly 80 percent in this range over their last 20. The Jaguars have the 27th ranked pass defense in the league and just lost their defensive leader, Mike Peterson. Without Peterson and Marcus Stroud the Bills should have some room to breath. Further, there is a system at work here that has hit at a 73-percent clip over the past five years that we?re going to play.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #203 Buffalo (+7.5) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The road team is 5-2 ATS in this series and Buffalo has covered four out of five. They got embarrassed last week by the Patriots, but they are an amazing 14-1 ATS in games after playing New England. Jacksonville has some injury issues and I?m not confident enough in their offense as a whole to go out and put up huge numbers. Also, Buffalo is 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
3-Unit Play. Take #217 San Francisco (+10.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The Cardinals are not used to being posted as this large of a favorite and I don?t think I trust them to cover this large number. This is a pretty intense rivalry and this is just too many points. Arizona has been winning lately, but not blowing anyone out. The road team has covered four straight, the Cards are 3-10 as a home favorite of 3.5 or more, and if Arizona can lose to Vinny Testaverde and Carolina at home they can lose to Trent Dilfer and San Fran.
3-Unit Play. Take #207 Houston (+3.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 25)
Neither team will be able to stop one another so the value is in the points. Cleveland is like Arizona - they've been winning and playing a lot of close games. I think that Houston has regained its mojo with Andre Johnson back and if they could handle New Orleans' offense last week they can get the better of the Browns, who are due for a letdown after back-to-back grueling divisional games.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #212 New York Giants (-7) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
Here is a case of just taking the better team. I think that the G-Men have toughened up against the run and that they can defend well enough to take away what the Vikings want to do.
THANKSGIVING SELECTIONS
2-Unit Play. Take #103 Green Bay (-3) over Detroit (12:30 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 22)
I know that the Packers have had a horrendous time in Detroit as a favorite over the past few years but I think that this Lions team is reverting back to the Lions we?re used to. They can?t protect the quarterback and matchups ? pass defense vs. pass offense, etc. ? are statistically very one-sided. I think this line should be around -6.0 so we?re getting value here. I?m looking for the Packers to continue to roll.
COLLEGE SELECTIONS
5-Unit Play. Take #116 Mississippi State (-6.5) over Mississippi (12:30 p.m., Friday, Nov. 23)
Note: This is our SEC Game of the Year.
The home team has won seven of eight in this series and I just think that the Bulldogs are the more physical, more disciplined team. Ole Miss had a horrible letdown after their grueling Florida game early in the year and after a tough cover at home against LSU I?m looking for a similar deflation. Ole Miss is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games.
4-Unit Play. Take #150 Kentucky (-3) over Tennessee (1:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
It is always a huge red flag when an unranked team is favored over a ranked team. Tennessee is 1-3 on the road this year and got hammered by Alabama, California, and Florida. Kentucky has been the whipping boy in this series but are good enough to turn the tide. UK has covered three of four in this one and I?m looking for a double-digit win.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #133 Missouri (+2) over Kansas (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 23)
I believe that the Tigers are the better, more battle-tested team here and that playing in their home state is going to give them all the advantage they need. This is a value play, getting us the better team with the points, and I will be on the moneyline on this game as well.
3-Unit Play. Take #144 South Carolina (+3) over Clemson (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
Clemson had its bubble burst last weekend and I think that with two weeks to prepare Steve Spurrier is going to have his charges ready to roll in this rivalry game. The Tigers have owned this matchup recently but I think that this is a better USC team than we?ve seen in some time. This is also a statement about the SEC being better than the ACC.
3-Unit Play. Take #173 Ball State (-8.5) over Northern Illinois (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
These are two teams heading in opposite directions and Ball State has absolutely dominated on the road in this series. The Cardinals have been one of the best bets in college football this year and I think they make a statement win here to give themselves better positioning for a bowl game. NIU wants to throw the ball and play a high-scoring affair. That plays right into BSU's hands.
2-Unit Play. Take #190 Stanford (-3.5) over Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
Even though the Irish managed a win over feeble Duke last week I still think they are one of the worst teams in Division I. Stanford is no prize, but you know they?ve had this game circled and any team with the talent to beat USC is good enough to beat this Notre Dame squad.
NFL SELECTIONS
5-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 36.0 Buffalo at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The Jaguars have been a fantastic ?over? play in the 34.0 to 36.0 total range, covering nearly 80 percent in this range over their last 20. The Jaguars have the 27th ranked pass defense in the league and just lost their defensive leader, Mike Peterson. Without Peterson and Marcus Stroud the Bills should have some room to breath. Further, there is a system at work here that has hit at a 73-percent clip over the past five years that we?re going to play.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #203 Buffalo (+7.5) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The road team is 5-2 ATS in this series and Buffalo has covered four out of five. They got embarrassed last week by the Patriots, but they are an amazing 14-1 ATS in games after playing New England. Jacksonville has some injury issues and I?m not confident enough in their offense as a whole to go out and put up huge numbers. Also, Buffalo is 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
3-Unit Play. Take #217 San Francisco (+10.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The Cardinals are not used to being posted as this large of a favorite and I don?t think I trust them to cover this large number. This is a pretty intense rivalry and this is just too many points. Arizona has been winning lately, but not blowing anyone out. The road team has covered four straight, the Cards are 3-10 as a home favorite of 3.5 or more, and if Arizona can lose to Vinny Testaverde and Carolina at home they can lose to Trent Dilfer and San Fran.
3-Unit Play. Take #207 Houston (+3.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 25)
Neither team will be able to stop one another so the value is in the points. Cleveland is like Arizona - they've been winning and playing a lot of close games. I think that Houston has regained its mojo with Andre Johnson back and if they could handle New Orleans' offense last week they can get the better of the Browns, who are due for a letdown after back-to-back grueling divisional games.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #212 New York Giants (-7) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
Here is a case of just taking the better team. I think that the G-Men have toughened up against the run and that they can defend well enough to take away what the Vikings want to do.
ATS FINANCIAL
3 units Over 46 GB
3 units Dallas
Hoops
1 units W Kentucky
ATS LOCK CLUB
NFL
4 units GreenBay
3 units Dallas
Hoops
3 units Cal Irvine
3 units Over 46 GB
3 units Dallas
Hoops
1 units W Kentucky
ATS LOCK CLUB
NFL
4 units GreenBay
3 units Dallas
Hoops
3 units Cal Irvine
Psychic
BIG CARD
2 units USC -3
2 units OVER 48 Det/GB
2 units over 41 Ind/Atl
3 units Green Bay -3.5
2 units Dallas -14
3 units Indianapolis -11.5
Magliosa
NFL Over Indy
College USC
BIG CARD
2 units USC -3
2 units OVER 48 Det/GB
2 units over 41 Ind/Atl
3 units Green Bay -3.5
2 units Dallas -14
3 units Indianapolis -11.5
Magliosa
NFL Over Indy
College USC
Sebastian
Hockey
20* Colorado/Edmonton Under
Baskets
10* Kansas State 1.5
10* Cal Irvine +10
NFL
7* Atlanta +12
20* Green Bay
30* Dallas/Jets Under 47.5
College Football
10* Arizona State +3
Hockey
20* Colorado/Edmonton Under
Baskets
10* Kansas State 1.5
10* Cal Irvine +10
NFL
7* Atlanta +12
20* Green Bay
30* Dallas/Jets Under 47.5
College Football
10* Arizona State +3
Charlie
nfl detroit+3 (500* )
nfl. green bay @ detroit under 47' (30*)
nfl. jets @ dallas over 47' (20*)
nfl. dallas-14 (20*)
nfl. indy @ atlanta over 41 (10*)
nfl. indy-12 (10*) free play
nfl detroit+3 (500* )
nfl. green bay @ detroit under 47' (30*)
nfl. jets @ dallas over 47' (20*)
nfl. dallas-14 (20*)
nfl. indy @ atlanta over 41 (10*)
nfl. indy-12 (10*) free play
RAS
Cal Irv +10... 1/2 unit
Wish everyone a safe and happy thanksgiving!
*One side play Thursday:
Mississippi State vs UC Irvine (+10) - 11:00am Pacific - Game #709-710
The top half of the Big West is much improved this year and I am projecting UC Irvine to finish at least in the top three. They played well in spurts vs Nevada two games back in a better than looked effort and in last game won very impressively vs former rival Utah State. Senior F/C Fells, the teams leading returning scorer, saw his first action of the season in last game after serving a two game suspension. Two newcomers F/C Bland and forward Rodenberg are playing very well and combined with the return of Fells give Irvine more than enough quality frontcourt depth. Sophomore point guard Hunter (6 assists/1 turnover last game) continues to impress and backcourt depth is also much improved from last season. Anteater senior wing Sanders is an excellent defender who will likely get the defensive assignment on MSU leading scorer Gordon. The Bulldogs are a relatively young team with a nine man rotation that includes one senior, one junior, four sophomores, and three freshman. They lost at home to a banged up Clemson team in their only test of the season. Miss State has been a suspect road team for years and just do not have enough dominant talent to be giving double digits here on a neutral court. This game is being played at the Anaheim Convention Center which is known for a poor shooting background and unfriendly rims. In addition to being just 10 minutes away, Irvine plays their conference tournament every year here and played a game vs Memphis here just 10 days ago which should give them an advantage. Expect the Anteaters to keep this game close throughout. Take the points.
Cal Irv +10... 1/2 unit
Wish everyone a safe and happy thanksgiving!
*One side play Thursday:
Mississippi State vs UC Irvine (+10) - 11:00am Pacific - Game #709-710
The top half of the Big West is much improved this year and I am projecting UC Irvine to finish at least in the top three. They played well in spurts vs Nevada two games back in a better than looked effort and in last game won very impressively vs former rival Utah State. Senior F/C Fells, the teams leading returning scorer, saw his first action of the season in last game after serving a two game suspension. Two newcomers F/C Bland and forward Rodenberg are playing very well and combined with the return of Fells give Irvine more than enough quality frontcourt depth. Sophomore point guard Hunter (6 assists/1 turnover last game) continues to impress and backcourt depth is also much improved from last season. Anteater senior wing Sanders is an excellent defender who will likely get the defensive assignment on MSU leading scorer Gordon. The Bulldogs are a relatively young team with a nine man rotation that includes one senior, one junior, four sophomores, and three freshman. They lost at home to a banged up Clemson team in their only test of the season. Miss State has been a suspect road team for years and just do not have enough dominant talent to be giving double digits here on a neutral court. This game is being played at the Anaheim Convention Center which is known for a poor shooting background and unfriendly rims. In addition to being just 10 minutes away, Irvine plays their conference tournament every year here and played a game vs Memphis here just 10 days ago which should give them an advantage. Expect the Anteaters to keep this game close throughout. Take the points.
ATSLOCKS.COM (not ats lock club)
8 units- Green Bay/Detroit OVER 47
5 units- USC/Arizona UNDER 49
Comp Play- Miami Oh- 3 over S.Alabama
Totals run is 18-5-1 run last 24
8 units- Green Bay/Detroit OVER 47
5 units- USC/Arizona UNDER 49
Comp Play- Miami Oh- 3 over S.Alabama
Totals run is 18-5-1 run last 24
does anyone have John Ryan's 5* college game tonight?
does anyone have John Ryan's 5* college game tonight?
thanks and happy turkey-day.
does anyone have John Ryan's 5* college game tonight?
thanks and happy turkey-day.
Teddy Covers
Green Bay
I see this as an absolutely brutal spot for the Lions as they have to try and pick themselves up off the mat following back-to-back losses against the Cardinals and Giants. I?m seeing signs of a team coming apart at the seams, as the Lions supposed leader Jon Kitna called out several of his teammates following Sunday's loss, rather than shouldering some of the responsibility himself. They bring zero momentum to the table in this one, and you have to think that they're feeling a ton of pressure to get the ship turned around, especially when you consider they're at home on Thanksgiving in a spot they've really struggled in over the past few years. Getting back on track is going to be easier said than done.
The Packers have been the picture of consistency this season, particularly on the road where they're a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS. The Lions are the only team that can possibly threaten them in the NFC North, so you can be sure that they'll be up for this one. A win here essentially wraps up the division for the Packers.
Having scored more than 30 points in each of their last three games, the Packers certainly come in with a full head of steam. I just don't see how this Lions defense that has been battered and bruised over the last two weeks can slow down what has become a potent Packers offense. Keep in mind, Green Bay scored 31 points in a game here at Ford Field last season. That game took place early in the season when the Packers were really struggling offensively. The Lions are a team that Brett Favre has always had success against; leading the Pack to victory in eight of the last 10 meetings.
The biggest key in this matchup is the Packers secondary. It's no secret that the Lions offensive strength is at the wide receiver position. Al Harris and Charles Woodson should be able to limit the big plays from Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, while Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald have been too inconsistent for Jon Kitna to count on. Of course, the Lions ground game has all but disappeared over the last two games.
The Lions offensive line will be outmatched for a second consecutive game. They gave up three sacks against the Giants on Sunday, and Kitna was hurried on nearly every passing play. The Packers are strong up front, having recorded 27 sacks this season. Aaron Kampman presents the Lions with a serious mismatch, regardless of who they decide to stick on him.
The Lions have dropped each of their last three Thanksgiving games by double digit margins. While they were able to get by on smoke and mirrors during the early part of the season, I feel that we've seen their true colors over the past couple of games. The Packers will relish another opportunity to prove they're for real on the national stage. Look for another complete effort from Favre and co. in what I expect to be a convincing victory.
gl
Falcons
In case you haven?t watched the Colts for the last few weeks, here?s an update on what Indy has been doing. First they lost at home to New England, despite the Pats playing, without a doubt, their worst game of the season. The Colts were held to a single field goal in the second half against the Pats. Then Indy went to San Diego. Peyton Manning threw a career high six interceptions in that ballgame, while the normally reliable Adam Vinatieri missed a pair of field goals.
Vinatieri and Manning both continued their mid-season slump last week against the Chiefs. Manning completed only half of his 32 pass attempts, throwing for a season low 163 yards without a single touchdown. Without Manning?s arm to open up the defense, Indy was held to just 66 rushing yards on 27 carries, barely escaping the upset with a 13-10 win over KC. It?s surely worth noting that the Colts would not have covered the spread even if they had shut KC out ? this offense is really hurting right now.
The Colts are still suffering from cluster injuries on their offensive line, which clearly explains both Manning?s recent struggles and the struggles of Joseph Addai and the running game. The Colts continue to suffer from cluster injuries at wide receiver as well, due to injuries to Anthony Gonzalez, Marvin Harrison and Aaron Moorehead. An offense that is averaging only 18 points per game and 310 yards per game over the last three weeks is not the same offense that took Indy to Super Bowl glory last February, nor the same offense that averaged more than 30 points per game through the first eight weeks of the season. That makes this price range a bit ridiculous for Colts backers on Thanksgiving night?.but it?s Indy in a single event national TV game, so the linesmakers are forced to compensate for the flood of public money sure to roll in on the Colts.
Atlanta stunk up the joint last week, as head coach Bobby Petrino gave Byron Leftwich the start, trying to determine Leftwich?s fate in the organization. The results weren?t pretty, and Leftwich got benched for Joey Harrington in a 31-7 home loss. But let?s not forget that prior to last week?s ugliness, the Falcons were in the midst of a 5-1 ATS run with Harrington behind center. Since their opening day loss at Minnesota, the Falcons have only two defeats by more than a touchdown, one coming last week. Look for a competitive effort from Atlanta here, against a banged up Colts team that is easy to fade in this inflated price range
Green Bay
I see this as an absolutely brutal spot for the Lions as they have to try and pick themselves up off the mat following back-to-back losses against the Cardinals and Giants. I?m seeing signs of a team coming apart at the seams, as the Lions supposed leader Jon Kitna called out several of his teammates following Sunday's loss, rather than shouldering some of the responsibility himself. They bring zero momentum to the table in this one, and you have to think that they're feeling a ton of pressure to get the ship turned around, especially when you consider they're at home on Thanksgiving in a spot they've really struggled in over the past few years. Getting back on track is going to be easier said than done.
The Packers have been the picture of consistency this season, particularly on the road where they're a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS. The Lions are the only team that can possibly threaten them in the NFC North, so you can be sure that they'll be up for this one. A win here essentially wraps up the division for the Packers.
Having scored more than 30 points in each of their last three games, the Packers certainly come in with a full head of steam. I just don't see how this Lions defense that has been battered and bruised over the last two weeks can slow down what has become a potent Packers offense. Keep in mind, Green Bay scored 31 points in a game here at Ford Field last season. That game took place early in the season when the Packers were really struggling offensively. The Lions are a team that Brett Favre has always had success against; leading the Pack to victory in eight of the last 10 meetings.
The biggest key in this matchup is the Packers secondary. It's no secret that the Lions offensive strength is at the wide receiver position. Al Harris and Charles Woodson should be able to limit the big plays from Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, while Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald have been too inconsistent for Jon Kitna to count on. Of course, the Lions ground game has all but disappeared over the last two games.
The Lions offensive line will be outmatched for a second consecutive game. They gave up three sacks against the Giants on Sunday, and Kitna was hurried on nearly every passing play. The Packers are strong up front, having recorded 27 sacks this season. Aaron Kampman presents the Lions with a serious mismatch, regardless of who they decide to stick on him.
The Lions have dropped each of their last three Thanksgiving games by double digit margins. While they were able to get by on smoke and mirrors during the early part of the season, I feel that we've seen their true colors over the past couple of games. The Packers will relish another opportunity to prove they're for real on the national stage. Look for another complete effort from Favre and co. in what I expect to be a convincing victory.
gl
Falcons
In case you haven?t watched the Colts for the last few weeks, here?s an update on what Indy has been doing. First they lost at home to New England, despite the Pats playing, without a doubt, their worst game of the season. The Colts were held to a single field goal in the second half against the Pats. Then Indy went to San Diego. Peyton Manning threw a career high six interceptions in that ballgame, while the normally reliable Adam Vinatieri missed a pair of field goals.
Vinatieri and Manning both continued their mid-season slump last week against the Chiefs. Manning completed only half of his 32 pass attempts, throwing for a season low 163 yards without a single touchdown. Without Manning?s arm to open up the defense, Indy was held to just 66 rushing yards on 27 carries, barely escaping the upset with a 13-10 win over KC. It?s surely worth noting that the Colts would not have covered the spread even if they had shut KC out ? this offense is really hurting right now.
The Colts are still suffering from cluster injuries on their offensive line, which clearly explains both Manning?s recent struggles and the struggles of Joseph Addai and the running game. The Colts continue to suffer from cluster injuries at wide receiver as well, due to injuries to Anthony Gonzalez, Marvin Harrison and Aaron Moorehead. An offense that is averaging only 18 points per game and 310 yards per game over the last three weeks is not the same offense that took Indy to Super Bowl glory last February, nor the same offense that averaged more than 30 points per game through the first eight weeks of the season. That makes this price range a bit ridiculous for Colts backers on Thanksgiving night?.but it?s Indy in a single event national TV game, so the linesmakers are forced to compensate for the flood of public money sure to roll in on the Colts.
Atlanta stunk up the joint last week, as head coach Bobby Petrino gave Byron Leftwich the start, trying to determine Leftwich?s fate in the organization. The results weren?t pretty, and Leftwich got benched for Joey Harrington in a 31-7 home loss. But let?s not forget that prior to last week?s ugliness, the Falcons were in the midst of a 5-1 ATS run with Harrington behind center. Since their opening day loss at Minnesota, the Falcons have only two defeats by more than a touchdown, one coming last week. Look for a competitive effort from Atlanta here, against a banged up Colts team that is easy to fade in this inflated price range
