Honda Classic
- Thread starter Ian
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Preview & outright plays:
As preparations for the Masters move into full swing, many of the leading players have again missed this event. Last year six of the top-30 in the World Rankings played at Heron Bay, this year there is a slight improvement to eight, with Mickelson the headline player by some distance. He has only played in this event once before - a missed cut in 1995 on a different course, so should be avoided as a single figure favorite. Maybe the headline player this week is Joe Durant, currently top of the Money List, but surely winning three in a row is beyond him.
The TPC at Heron Bay has hosted this event since 1997 and has always failed to attract the best fields. Proximity to the Masters is one reason, but also the course itself. Very flat and uninspiring is the general view, despite water coming into play on all 18 holes. Its openness can lead to severe problems with the winds and this was the case in 1999 when Eric Booker lost a five-shot lead over the back nine to Vijay Singh. Last year there were no such winds and it played as one of the easiest courses on Tour in 2000. Last year is possibly best remembered for Brian Gay's one-shot penalty on the penultimate hole. He was one shot behind Dudley Hart when his putt on the 17th hole stopped on the lip of the cup. He claimed the ball was moving and waited for it to drop. It did, but only 13 seconds and the rules dictate that he was only allowed 10 seconds. In true trial-by-television, he was not made aware of the penalty for another 20 minutes and the rest is history. The greens, by the way, are of the Bermuda strain.
Maybe it is a reflection of this event in general, but I cannot find anything inspiring in the field beyond the short-priced players. I have tried, but the three selections remain Mark Calcavecchia, Jim Furyk and Hal Sutton. Calc has won this event twice, in 1987 and on this course in 1998 and he is on a career-streak with his putter this year. He shot 60 en route to winning the Phoenix Open and defied a knee injury to finish 3rd in the Bob Hope. He had arthroscopic surgery two weeks ago to repair the tear in the medial meniscus in his left knee and is apparently eager to get back on the course to an event in which he has been an ever-present since 1987. Like Davis Love said last week, "when the putter is this hot you don't want to go home" and Calc looks a decent prospect to win here again assuming he is as fit as he says.
No fitness worries for Jim Furyk though. He comes off a reasonable finish at the Genuity when all but challenged on the last day. He has played this course twice before, finishing 4th last year and 12th in 1998 so his record here is one of the best on view this week. In a weak field, he just looks a class too high for the rest of the field and if the wind doesn't blow as strong as in 1999, the conditions should favor him.
The final pick is Hal Sutton who was extremely impressive last week, but never got into gear on Sunday. His indifferent form of the first two months of the season seems to be behind him and he is again looking a decent prospect for the TPC. In the meantime, he is obviously not a critic of Heron Bay as he has been an ever-present since its first staging here in 1997 and in the last two years he has finished 7th both times. Like Furyk, if the winds do not become too strong, he looks one of a not too many premier-quality players on view this week.
Outright plays:
Mark Calcavecchia to win 16/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler or Surrey
Jim Furyk to win 16/1 e.w @ Victor Chandler
Hal Sutton to win 20/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
As preparations for the Masters move into full swing, many of the leading players have again missed this event. Last year six of the top-30 in the World Rankings played at Heron Bay, this year there is a slight improvement to eight, with Mickelson the headline player by some distance. He has only played in this event once before - a missed cut in 1995 on a different course, so should be avoided as a single figure favorite. Maybe the headline player this week is Joe Durant, currently top of the Money List, but surely winning three in a row is beyond him.
The TPC at Heron Bay has hosted this event since 1997 and has always failed to attract the best fields. Proximity to the Masters is one reason, but also the course itself. Very flat and uninspiring is the general view, despite water coming into play on all 18 holes. Its openness can lead to severe problems with the winds and this was the case in 1999 when Eric Booker lost a five-shot lead over the back nine to Vijay Singh. Last year there were no such winds and it played as one of the easiest courses on Tour in 2000. Last year is possibly best remembered for Brian Gay's one-shot penalty on the penultimate hole. He was one shot behind Dudley Hart when his putt on the 17th hole stopped on the lip of the cup. He claimed the ball was moving and waited for it to drop. It did, but only 13 seconds and the rules dictate that he was only allowed 10 seconds. In true trial-by-television, he was not made aware of the penalty for another 20 minutes and the rest is history. The greens, by the way, are of the Bermuda strain.
Maybe it is a reflection of this event in general, but I cannot find anything inspiring in the field beyond the short-priced players. I have tried, but the three selections remain Mark Calcavecchia, Jim Furyk and Hal Sutton. Calc has won this event twice, in 1987 and on this course in 1998 and he is on a career-streak with his putter this year. He shot 60 en route to winning the Phoenix Open and defied a knee injury to finish 3rd in the Bob Hope. He had arthroscopic surgery two weeks ago to repair the tear in the medial meniscus in his left knee and is apparently eager to get back on the course to an event in which he has been an ever-present since 1987. Like Davis Love said last week, "when the putter is this hot you don't want to go home" and Calc looks a decent prospect to win here again assuming he is as fit as he says.
No fitness worries for Jim Furyk though. He comes off a reasonable finish at the Genuity when all but challenged on the last day. He has played this course twice before, finishing 4th last year and 12th in 1998 so his record here is one of the best on view this week. In a weak field, he just looks a class too high for the rest of the field and if the wind doesn't blow as strong as in 1999, the conditions should favor him.
The final pick is Hal Sutton who was extremely impressive last week, but never got into gear on Sunday. His indifferent form of the first two months of the season seems to be behind him and he is again looking a decent prospect for the TPC. In the meantime, he is obviously not a critic of Heron Bay as he has been an ever-present since its first staging here in 1997 and in the last two years he has finished 7th both times. Like Furyk, if the winds do not become too strong, he looks one of a not too many premier-quality players on view this week.
Outright plays:
Mark Calcavecchia to win 16/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler or Surrey
Jim Furyk to win 16/1 e.w @ Victor Chandler
Hal Sutton to win 20/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
72 hole match plays
Sutton over Hart -111 Simon Bold
Calc over Huston -133 Easybets
Riley over Begay -111 Simon Bold
Sutton over Hart -111 Simon Bold
Calc over Huston -133 Easybets
Riley over Begay -111 Simon Bold
One early 72 holes @ 5 dimes
Durant -110 over Houston
Durant on cruise Huston stuggling,I look for this line to reverse by am.
Durant -110 over Houston
Durant on cruise Huston stuggling,I look for this line to reverse by am.
Also will be looking hard at Furyk. 14 sub 70 rounds out of 19 this year. In a chat at pgatour.com on Monday he stated that while he feels he's still a little rusty, feels he's very close to really playing well. GLTA
Will probably take on the 21-1 @ Olympic if it's still there when they post the 'Show' lines - better than 16/1 e.w. any day
Quite a decent scalp out there at the moment and hats off to DTB for predicting it ...
Huston +130 Olympic
Durant +115 Grand Central
Quite a decent scalp out there at the moment and hats off to DTB for predicting it ...
Huston +130 Olympic
Durant +115 Grand Central
72-hole plays:
Chris DiMarco to beat Chris Smith -111 @ Ladbrokes
With just one round of twelve over par at Heron Bay, DiMarco looks a decent proposition on this course. His opponent, Chris Smith does not. He has played this course twice before, missing the cut in 1998 and finishing 78th in 1999. This is his sixth straight event and there is nothing here to suggest that his game can be raised this week
Craig Parry to beat Geoff Ogilvy -118 @ Easybets
Both come here from decent finales to the Australasian Tour, but for Ogilvy this is his first visit to Heron Bay. For Parry, this is a return to a course for which he holds the course record (64), set in 1997 when he finished 5th. Should be a decisive edge.
Chris DiMarco to beat Chris Smith -111 @ Ladbrokes
With just one round of twelve over par at Heron Bay, DiMarco looks a decent proposition on this course. His opponent, Chris Smith does not. He has played this course twice before, missing the cut in 1998 and finishing 78th in 1999. This is his sixth straight event and there is nothing here to suggest that his game can be raised this week
Craig Parry to beat Geoff Ogilvy -118 @ Easybets
Both come here from decent finales to the Australasian Tour, but for Ogilvy this is his first visit to Heron Bay. For Parry, this is a return to a course for which he holds the course record (64), set in 1997 when he finished 5th. Should be a decisive edge.
Another week with wild line discrepencies!
Along with Durant scalp there is also:
Appleby+110(ITOPS)/FLESCH+110(5dimes)
though I may side this with Appleby's record on this course and Flesch's inconsistency of late
Stankowski also looks a good dog.
Liking an unusual # of dogs that are moving to favs as the week progresses ( playing steam I guess
).
Last Friday I had a 4 player parlay and a 3 player parlay both PUSH all matches, then won a six player dog parlay on Sunday that I only had $4 on, freakin weird week!
GL
Along with Durant scalp there is also:
Appleby+110(ITOPS)/FLESCH+110(5dimes)
though I may side this with Appleby's record on this course and Flesch's inconsistency of late
Stankowski also looks a good dog.
Liking an unusual # of dogs that are moving to favs as the week progresses ( playing steam I guess
Last Friday I had a 4 player parlay and a 3 player parlay both PUSH all matches, then won a six player dog parlay on Sunday that I only had $4 on, freakin weird week!
GL
Furyk -135 over Calcavechica
Mark went under knife 2 weeks ago,he will be limping around the course,he may quit after Thursday,meanwhile Furyk should win the tournament.
Mark went under knife 2 weeks ago,he will be limping around the course,he may quit after Thursday,meanwhile Furyk should win the tournament.
Forgot about small time $275 limit @ITOPS, but Appleby scalp also available @ GCS! Hope CALC is healthy, but have limited plays on him due to health!
GL
GL
72 hole match plays:
Stankowski even over Kendall
Appleby +110 over Flesch
Durant +115 over Huston
Still thinking about Furyk -130 over Calcavecchia but need more info about his form. Is he really in bad shape?
Thanks!
Stankowski even over Kendall
Appleby +110 over Flesch
Durant +115 over Huston
Still thinking about Furyk -130 over Calcavecchia but need more info about his form. Is he really in bad shape?
Thanks!
Little objective view on this Baddeley kid from from the Euro crew please,AussieVamp remember I said objective
.
Is this kid worth worth a shot at a place only wager @ 8.75 to 1
Is this kid worth worth a shot at a place only wager @ 8.75 to 1
He did have a great first two rounds as a amateur last year, but fell away at the weekend and never fulfilled his potential all year on the PGA Tour.
Definitely a great prospect, but carrying such form from Australia to other Tours is not easy - the course setups are very different - so I would give this week a miss on Baddeley, but pencil him in as a future gravy train
Definitely a great prospect, but carrying such form from Australia to other Tours is not easy - the course setups are very different - so I would give this week a miss on Baddeley, but pencil him in as a future gravy train
Thanks Stan Reaffirmed my initial thoughts.
1st rd play @5dimes
Stankowski -110 over Kendall
Give Stankowski slight edge here plus tee time factor.
1st rd play @5dimes
Stankowski -110 over Kendall
Give Stankowski slight edge here plus tee time factor.
Will forgo outrights on pga this week.However concur that Stan has best bases covered.
Was looking for good place odds @ Oly on Estes but they did not line him,however will opt for 2 contracts each @ $4/contract on
Calc and Durant (25/1 for winner)in WSEX interactives.I always buy 2 in hopes of being selling one if it increases to recoup initial stake.
Was looking for good place odds @ Oly on Estes but they did not line him,however will opt for 2 contracts each @ $4/contract on
Calc and Durant (25/1 for winner)in WSEX interactives.I always buy 2 in hopes of being selling one if it increases to recoup initial stake.
Adding:
Hal Sutton to beat Dudley Hart -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
Hart may be the defending champion, but he comes here following two missed cuts and a disqualification (when he was a selection!) in the last three weeks. That is no preparation for a first-time defending champion and headline pick, Hal Sutton, should win this with ease
Paul Stankowski to beat Chris Smith -111 @ Simon Bold
Again opposing Smith on the grounds listed above. This time Stank is the selection who has had a good record of at least making cuts of late, though the 2nd at the Bob Hope was rather unexpected. He has decent form on this course which includes 5th place in 1997 and should be in the top-half of the field on Sunday, whereas Smith is expected to be already on the practice ground
Having to search long and hard for matchups I like this week
Hal Sutton to beat Dudley Hart -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
Hart may be the defending champion, but he comes here following two missed cuts and a disqualification (when he was a selection!) in the last three weeks. That is no preparation for a first-time defending champion and headline pick, Hal Sutton, should win this with ease
Paul Stankowski to beat Chris Smith -111 @ Simon Bold
Again opposing Smith on the grounds listed above. This time Stank is the selection who has had a good record of at least making cuts of late, though the 2nd at the Bob Hope was rather unexpected. He has decent form on this course which includes 5th place in 1997 and should be in the top-half of the field on Sunday, whereas Smith is expected to be already on the practice ground
Having to search long and hard for matchups I like this week
Agree Stan Hardest contest slate to choose from this week also IMHO.
adding 1st rd
two 3ball combo's @ Sportingbet 1/2 unit each
Elder-Estes-Gow-Baddeley $10 returns $285
& add Appleby and Sutton to above matches
$10 returns $1,568
adding 1st rd
two 3ball combo's @ Sportingbet 1/2 unit each
Elder-Estes-Gow-Baddeley $10 returns $285
& add Appleby and Sutton to above matches
$10 returns $1,568
