Houston Open

[Stanley]

Course: TPC at The Woodlands, The Woodlands, Texas
Yardage: 7018
Par: 72 (four par-fives)
USGA Rating: 73.7
Greens: Champion Bermudagrass - 7,000 sq.ft (Tour average: 6,000 sq.ft)

GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet

Weather Forecast

Best Players Last 10 Years

Past Winners:
2001 - Hal Sutton
2000 - Robert Allenby
1999 - Stuart Appleby
1998 - David Duval
1997 - Phil Blackmar
1996 - Mark Brooks
1995 - Payne Stewart
1994 - Mike Heinen
1993 - Jim McGovern
1992 - Fred Funk

 

[bettingmad]

Justin Leonard 40/1 Bet365 & Sporting Odds (limited early shows)

Only 44th last week at an event he has previously won... but for form purposes I believe the Players can be ignored,
it's too much of a lottery... Perks beating Ames... where else would that happen?
Have to follow Justin in his home state.. for the simple reason that he plays better there than anywhere else.
Since the 1998 Colonial he has played 15 times in Texas and managed 2 wins, 3 top 5's, 2 top 10's and 3 top 20's.
A total of 10 out of 15 top 20's. Three of the 5 misses were 'consecutive' outings in 2000 when he was not playing well.
Promising efforts this year include Bob Hope 6th and Genuity Doral 11th.

 

[Monarch]

The whole Leonard in Texas thing can surely not go unmissed this week. I doubt that 40/1 will last till the morning.

 

[bettingmad]

Monarch,
Don't be like that... I was hoping for some 50/1...

Anyway with no European event this week I still vote for them to play the last round in Madeira again.... I wasn't satisfied with that result... still not recovered from expecting to see scores for the first 4 or 5 holes when 15 holes were thrown at me (and all bad).... I was only in my 'possible bad start mode'... nowhere near my '**** I've blown my dosh mode'... shook me to my boots. Steved could pay the players travelling/hotel expenses out of his illgotten gains.... and with 4 days spare if we don't like the next result they could carry on until they get it right.

 

[Robbo]

How about Nick Price at 40/1? I like Leonard as well. How important do you think course form is here? I ask that because I don't think Price has played here before. At least not in the past few years. I was also thinking about Michael Campbell at 40 / 1. Steven Ames 66 /1 ? It seems to me we have another course where the scores will be high so it seems that the ball strikers and good scramblers will have an advantage.

 

[Ian]

Well after last weeks excitement (Stan James gone to the bottom of my Xmas card list for only going 4 places Ochoa!) - shall be looking again at the specialist markets - last week saw Hoch t2nd top American (pratt!) and Price top African (nice fellow) but a couple of outrights catch my eye
Franco - 80/1 Sportingbet - good record here and seems to be quietly coming back to form - price too big for a man who knows how to win
Edwards - 125/1 Centrebet - the journeyman who seems to play well here - seems over the odds to me

 

[Monarch]

This is a great course if my memory serves me correctly with that crazy 'Devil' hole 17. I'm liking DiMarco to get back on track now he's out of florida. The greens are also a little wacky here so I think they may suit him. Bettingmad, I'll be more than grateful to find 50/1 for Leonard this week. Would sure beat the hell out of glory boy Bickerton at 14/1. Hindsight is far too powerful.

Tour Insider on pgatour.com has some interesting comments on this week. Ian, 'Joel Edwards, after a tie for seventh at the Sony Open in Hawaii, has struggled of late with four missed cuts in his last six starts. "I'm doing nothing well. I have just lost it," he said. Most of the problem may be an aching back. He is having an MRI this week and may withdraw from Houston.'

 

[Robbo]

What do you guys think about course experience here? Is it neccesary? I'm thinking about taking a chance on Luke Donald if I can get some place or show odds on him with Olympic or Sports Interaction. He should be fresh and raring to go after not playing last week.

 

[Robbo]

Also looking at Jim Furyk for the same reason as Donald. He appears to be getting over his vertigo and played quite well last week. 33/1 at Bet365usa. He should be mentally strong this week because he hasn't been playing four, five or six weeks in a row like some of the other players. Here are some of the other players I will look to use in matchups due to what I think is better scheduling coming into this event and of course other factors as well. Nick Price, Chris Dimarco, David Duval, David Toms, Rod Pampling, Scott Hoch, Jerry Kelly, Vijay, and Scott Verplank. I don't have any concrete selections yet but those are some early favourites.

 

[steved]

Three for this week:
Huston 33/1 ew Surrey. Wanted more, but in form and goes well here.
Allenby 33/1 ew Surrey. Wanted more again, winner 2 years ago, blew it on 4th round here last year going for broke.
Maggert 66/1 ew Sportingodds. Ok, so he is not called Scott, but he is up there with the Scott's when it comes to not winning, but appearing that he might win...2nd three times here in past, went well last week, whilst not ever looking like winning.
Hoch should go well, but not interested at under 50/1. He will probably win!
Anyone seen any better odds? Thought Huston would be bigger. Tote have him at 20/1 though, so unlikely.

 

[bettingmad]

Steved,
Huston is 40/1 at Eurobet

 

[milpalm]

Leonard (40/1, Bet365), seems to be the consensus this week. Outstanding record in Texas events.
I couldn't resist Huston at 66/1 (Luvbet). 9th in the TPC, 3rd at Bay Hill. Good record in this event if you go back a few years.
Will add one more later.

 

[bettingmad]

steved,
yes forget the 40/1 at eurobet... is indeed 66/1 at luvbet!

 

[tartancords]

houston outrights

houston outrights

Winner outright will probably come from:
Singh, Hoch, Furyk, Toms, Price and wait for it....Monty

Picking one i would confidently say Jim Furyk

This is a course with 4 par 5s and that normally attracts the big hitters
but known stats and any informed opinion of the event
suggests that accuracy off the tee and the ability to hit the greens is
more important than distance or even flat stick stats.

On pure current form you wont get better than Price and Hoch but in both
cases they regularly come up short and will not
be high enough priced to suggest than an E/W bet will be value. Toms may be
smarting from Sunday where an average
round would have seen him in the shake up and that may affect him.

Singh is due a win but like Hoch and Price he is not winning at a
percentage rate that his regular Top 10 finishes suggests
he should. Also a bad Players championship will not help and his price wont
go up much for that so he probably wont be value.

Monty actually has the game for the track and if putting isnt as important
as it usually is then he could sneak up at a big
price and i would suggest a saver on him.

This leaves Furyk, all stats suggest big Jim, his game is coming back after
illness and injury seen him pull out of most
of the recent events. He doesnt normally play here but maybe feels this
week he has to as he doesnt have the match practice
that most have leading to the Masters. Strange though he doesnt play here
as this is a course that should suit his style.

Betting Suggestions then

2pt Win J Furyk @ 33/1 or better (curr: 35 Betfair)
1pt EW C Montgomerie @ 66/1 or better (curr: 66 Betfair)

 

[Ian]

Huston at 66/1 is way over the top - Luvbet had suspended but Bananabet (same odds) allowed me the princely sum of ?2.50 ew :violin:
They also quote 100/1 Franco - the yellow, slippery ones go 1/4 5 but have decided to have a bit more on Franco in the Top ROW category - 33/1 is big as he has finished he last 2 Houstons t4th and 1st in this category

 

[milpalm]

Final pick Jerry Kelly. He's in fine form and if you disregard his mc last year his record in this event is good. He was 6th in 97 and 98. 33/1 Sportingodds.

 

[doonhamer]

Purely on price Thomas Bjorn is my selection @ 100/1 with ladbrokes no course form but just back from a prolonged break through injury he has played twice this season finishing 20th in Dubai and 22nd last week not a bad return and finished off with a 68 on the final day of the TPC with loads of second rate journeymen pros around the 50/1 mark Bjorn is well overpriced @ 100/1 1pt EW first 5 also match bet Huston to beat Scott @ 10/11 Luvbet cheers Steffen

 

[Ian]

That is a very good match bet - shall be joining you on that one

One other bet in the ROW category - Toledo - always hangs around without achieving a great deal but has finished 6/2/3 in this category here last 3 years - 50/1

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit unless stated):

David Toms to win 20/1 e.w. @ Sports.com
Class player whose game hasn't rediscovered the heights of Hawaii. The move away from Florida to Texas should suit as he has an excellent record in this state. Since the 1999 Texas Open, he has played 11 events in the Lone Star State and barring last year's Texas Open he has finished no worse than 27th in all of them. A better closer of events than many of this week's top players.

Scott Verplank to win 40/1 e.w. @ William Hill or Eurobet [5 place option]
Hasn't played this course since 1992 when he gave up on this course having missed four cuts from four starts on it. Ten years on and Verplank is a new player, particularly since his win in the 2000 Reno-Tahoe Open. In his Texas events last year, he did finish 5th in the Byron Nelson Classic and 2nd in the Tour Championship and with accuracy at a premium this week - rainfall in Houston is barely over half of the March average - he should be well-suited to finally conquer this course before the event moves to Redlands in 2003.

Justin Leonard to win 40/1 e.w. @ Easybets
Leonard has not fared particularly well in Florida, so will relish the return to his home state which is where he makes his money. From the Texas Open in 2000, he has finished 1st, 4th, 6th, 5th and 1st (2001 Texas Open) in his home state, before finishing 22nd in the Tour Championship. That run includes 4th at The Woodlands last year and if he is to re-start his season, it will surely come this week.

 

[Ian]

Couple more lttle speciality bets - this time top Anzac player at UK Betting- basically same as other Australasian categories but no Japanese or Vijay - both have played well here before and only need one to finish in top 3 for a profit - Tataurangi and Waite - both 25/1 - who knows Mr Elliots "inspiration by comparison" might work