I guess week 17 in the NFL
- Thread starter Jord20
- Start date
The variance theory does apply, teams regress to their means. That has nothing to do with "books adjusting lines".
It is incredibly difficult to win, but no chance if you are just chasing steam and getting bad numbers on overvalued teams. Sometimes overvalued steamed up teams will win, but that is not a long term winning strategy.
And I will add it is much tougher to beat the NFL, which has incredibly tight lines in a very efficient market.
Yes I still hold Grudge on my non covers on over. I hope Texans offense coordinator taking notes from Pittsburgh college football offense with 3rd string qb. Much more dynamic with running schemes and underneath passing. Yes I digress..
Hmm, so far Detroit is covering at a 70% clip and the Giants have not been covering at a 70% clip. From what Ive seen public has been on both trends. Variance will not even this out. Maybe next year haha
Every season, every sport there will be teams that at the end of the year will cover at x% clip. But the question at that point is will they continue covering at x% clip because thats what you are betting on - the next game. If it was as easy as betting teams that "have covered this year" then everyone would win every year.
Variance does not mean everyone covers at 50% clips. It's a matter of teams that have been covering at a 70% clip then getting overvalued while those covering at a low percentage getting undervalued.
This is probably the wrong crowd for this discussion.
Not happening. He sees nothing. Doesnt get the ball out vs. blitz. Initial instinct on every play is to turn back and run.
It is a guaranteed recipe for failure. You beat the blitz by making a read and getting the ball out not running around backwards.
This. He’s so bad. Just no feel for avoiding pressure or a collapsing pocket. Sad because he’s got talent as a qb - but if he can’t fix this, he won’t make it.
This could be one of the worst games in nfl history. The line is bad, Caleb is lost, and the play calling continues to just be horrific
Punting?!?!?!??
This staff should never get another job in this league. 4-11. 2 minutes left. You run down the clock, somehow no creativity or sense of urgency. Then punt?!?!?!!!!!!!
Haaaaahaaaaaaa
This staff should never get another job in this league. 4-11. 2 minutes left. You run down the clock, somehow no creativity or sense of urgency. Then punt?!?!?!!!!!!!
Haaaaahaaaaaaa
at least they didn't punt lol and caleb n DJ both made great plays to convert for 1st down.. then nuttin.
but for a change, they covered ats! but this was winnable...
Offensive line woes, holds ball too long, need shorter crisper routes to develop some rhythm. ugly loss ~~ onward.
but for a change, they covered ats! but this was winnable...
Offensive line woes, holds ball too long, need shorter crisper routes to develop some rhythm. ugly loss ~~ onward.
