I guess week 17 in the NFL
- Thread starter Jord20
- Start date
Burrow best qb in the league. Mahomes can’t carry his water. Lamar great athlete. But chokes in big games/accuracy can go awry also. Burrow up there with Marino Montana Brady.
Mahomes is a straight up killer too! Bengals better wrs and Chiefs best offensive coordinators in league. Either one is incredible. Lamar is MVP!!! of regular season
( running from Jack)..
JOSH ALLENMahomes is a straight up killer too! Bengals better wrs and Chiefs best offensive coordinators in league. Either one is incredible. Lamar is MVP!!! of regular season
Mahomes has 3 super bowls. You think Mahomes doesnt put up numbers with this Bengals offense?
I don't get the Mahomes hate on here. I don't even like the chiefs but anointing Joe Burrow as better than 3 time Super Bowl champion, 3 time Super Bowl MVP, 2 time league MVP Mahomes is a little off and myopic.
He's awesome too! NFL is such a great brand, the greatest ever!
The year of the favorite!!!
Nice and easy cover by the Cards. But the faves keep coming up with miraculous wins/covers
Nice and easy cover by the Cards. But the faves keep coming up with miraculous wins/covers
oh that’s because i just started following you about a month ago Jord. You see, I live in a simulation and you are just a character in it. And your character is there just to ensure I don’t win betting on sports. If you want to win again I’ll need to stop following you. lol
Oh shit , S Dog you getting all technical too on us?? Mean reversion and variance 🥸
lol. As I said. Waiting. Waiting. Waiting. Anddddd Ain’tgonna happen. Unless we are talking flipping coins no I dont believe that applies here. But hey !!! I did hit my 4 teamer yesterday. Thx to jord la UConn and my nfl plays. Not how I drew up the bengals and rams. But that’s two that finally went my way.
@Jord20
You know this deep down, and it sounds arrogant to say, but losing CLOSE comes with the territory of being in the top 10-15% of ppl who try their hand at this.
I know, its easier to just be “wrong” and move on - those dont stick with most people. But they KILL ME. Like I was on Houston vs Balt, i can’t believe how f’king wrong I was. It was the wrong side, its not even debatable, and its one of my worst (by margin not $) losses in a while.
I had a 2 teamer fri night in nba -hou money line and brooklyn +8.5. Houston was up like 14 with 4 min left and lost by 1 to min. The nets lost by 9 to SA. Most would call that a bad beat, but i get over that fast because they were good positions. I dont have to look back and wonder wtf I missed that was so obvious to others.
Losing close on most of your losses is actually a badge of honor. It means to beat you, bad luck or crazy sht has to go wrong which wont happen most of the time.
When you’re losing close, and winning more than you lose, you’re more on fire than 90% of those who bet.
That said, its a kick in the dck. Dont get me wrong lol
And i know your main point is the imbalance— lose a close one, win a close one, thats to be expected. Losing a high % of the close ones goes against the assumed notion that it should even out over time. The longer the time frame and more extreme the % against you, the more ‘unnatural’ it seems. I do get it. Just sayin we all know ppl who lose 4 out of 5 and win the close 1. I’d rather be winning 3 of 5 and lose a close 1.
You know this deep down, and it sounds arrogant to say, but losing CLOSE comes with the territory of being in the top 10-15% of ppl who try their hand at this.
I know, its easier to just be “wrong” and move on - those dont stick with most people. But they KILL ME. Like I was on Houston vs Balt, i can’t believe how f’king wrong I was. It was the wrong side, its not even debatable, and its one of my worst (by margin not $) losses in a while.
I had a 2 teamer fri night in nba -hou money line and brooklyn +8.5. Houston was up like 14 with 4 min left and lost by 1 to min. The nets lost by 9 to SA. Most would call that a bad beat, but i get over that fast because they were good positions. I dont have to look back and wonder wtf I missed that was so obvious to others.
Losing close on most of your losses is actually a badge of honor. It means to beat you, bad luck or crazy sht has to go wrong which wont happen most of the time.
When you’re losing close, and winning more than you lose, you’re more on fire than 90% of those who bet.
That said, its a kick in the dck. Dont get me wrong lol
And i know your main point is the imbalance— lose a close one, win a close one, thats to be expected. Losing a high % of the close ones goes against the assumed notion that it should even out over time. The longer the time frame and more extreme the % against you, the more ‘unnatural’ it seems. I do get it. Just sayin we all know ppl who lose 4 out of 5 and win the close 1. I’d rather be winning 3 of 5 and lose a close 1.
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I agree it does sound arrogant! Lol.. I think most everyone here gets reversion and variance , I tease alot about it, but I do get it. Basically, you have to be willing to pick ugly with extra points and accept ugly losses in spots, and that's a skill to be able to accept those type of teams. I personally don't like playing against healthy top tier teams with top qbs and coaches when they are playing with momentum. I'd rather stay away or die on my sword then hope the garbage team comes in within the bigger number against top tier team that are balling. There are so many games available that I wouldn't want to battle against momentum of a dominant offense and defense even if line gives a couple points in Turd teams favor. Disclaimer: I'm not close to the level , time, work and skill you and others put into this, as for me it can cause too much negativity in my life. I've learned alot watching how you guys play these spots, and do play some jf these dogs if ive seen signs of competiveness and functionality, but I can't go to well with some of these shit teams every weekend, at some point in think it's healthier to divorce them! Also, I'm not referring to your Houston play, but I have not liked the way they played all yr, Steelers are the only team they have a shot at beating in playoffs, but dont think they would win against them.
Everyone remembers the bad beats, but not the bounces that go their way. And we all get bounces that go good and bad. If you do this long enough, you may not track it, but it does pretty much even out.
can something go away if it's never there? watch closely next time you watch a ravens game. he almost never hits a receiver in stride.
i don't think he chokes. i just think defenses get a little better in the playoffs. the windows to throw get a little tighter. his weaknesses get magnified.
but, hey, can't argue with the regular season results.
