I guess week 17 in the NFL

Real_Vision

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I agree it does sound arrogant! Lol.. I think most everyone here gets reversion and variance , I tease alot about it, but I do get it. Basically, you have to be willing to pick ugly with extra points and accept ugly losses in spots, and that's a skill to be able to accept those type of teams. I personally don't like playing against healthy top tier teams with top qbs and coaches when they are playing with momentum. I'd rather stay away or die on my sword then hope the garbage team comes in within the bigger number against top tier team that are balling. There are so many games available that I wouldn't want to battle against momentum of a dominant offense and defense even if line gives a couple points in Turd teams favor. Disclaimer: I'm not close to the level , time, work and skill you and others put into this, as for me it can cause too much negativity in my life. I've learned alot watching how you guys play these spots, and do play some jf these dogs if ive seen signs of competiveness and functionality, but I can't go to well with some of these shit teams every weekend, at some point in think it's healthier to divorce them! Also, I'm not referring to your Houston play, but I have not liked the way they played all yr, Steelers are the only team they have a shot at beating in playoffs, but dont think they would win against them.

Holding your breath and taking crap teams is not for the faint of heart.

But this is how it can go right.

I’ve bet on 5 bears games this year.

1. Wash +3500 ML two plays before the hail mary
2. Chi +6.5 and +8.5 vs GB (2 weeks laater - the one they lost on the blocked fg )
3. Chi +3.5 vs min and over 38.5. Went to OT BEARS lost 30-27 i think?
4. Bears +7.5 vs det on t’giving.
5. Bears +4 then later +6.5 vs sea this week.

Now notice they LOST EVERY ONE of the games i bet on them. They could’ve easily won 3 of the 4, and did everything but win the wash game (the one bet i made against them all yr lol)

I think thats what you’re talking about— i mean the 3 straight weeks i took chi was right into the TEETH of the nfc north - GB, MIN, DET, and i covered every one.

Thats not the way less experienced players go. I used to (like 10 yrs ago) believe u dont take a dog unless they can win. That’s crazy talk. In fact its why there’s a ML that oays more.

And this hasnt been a good season for dogs to cover and not win or cover at all.

Its not about me or that crp, im saying i like that u realize your limitations and dont try to ski the black diamond. The nfl is like a blitz of media and opinions and perception that ultimately catches everyone leaning the wrong way at the worst time. It was easy to lean against the bears, almost obvious after the wash and arz losses, thats exactly why i jumped on board after.

I had wash +3 last weekend. Because i couldnt remember the last game philly lost AND after the steelers game the narrative was that the “locker room” issues btwn AJG and hurts were “all better”.. thats where ppl lean the wrong way almost instinctively. My brain works as so : “or…. What if thats the all clear signal, we’re picking on a great team almost inventing flaws, now saying oh its fixed… thats my cue to lean against them”

Didnt always think that way, doesnt always work, but its done well for me
 
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rocky mountain

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Holding your breath and taking crap teams is not for the faint of heart.

But this is how it can go right.

I’ve bet on 5 bears games this year.

1. Wash +3500 ML two plays before the hail mary
2. Chi +6.5 and +8.5 vs GB (2 weeks laater - the one they lost on the blocked fg )
3. Chi +3.5 vs min and over 38.5. Went to OT BEARS lost 30-27 i think?
4. Bears +7.5 vs det on t’giving.
5. Bears +4 then later +6.5 vs sea this week.

Now notice they LOST EVERY ONE of the games i bet on them. They could’ve easily won 3 of the 4, and did everything but win the wash game (the one bet i made against them all yr lol)

I think thats what you’re talking about— i mean the 3 straight weeks i took chi was right into the TEETH of the nfc north - GB, MIN, DET, and i covered every one.

Thats not the way less experienced players go. I used to (like 10 yrs ago) believe u dont take a dog unless they can win. That’s crazy talk. In fact its why there’s a ML that oays more.

And this hasnt been a good season for dogs to cover and not win or cover at all.

Its not about me or that crp, im saying i like that u realize your limitations and dont try to ski the black diamond. The nfl is like a blitz of media and opinions and perception that ultimately catches everyone leaning the wrong way at the worst time. It was easy to lean against the bears, almost obvious after the wash and arz losses, thats exactly why i jumped on board after.

I had wash +3 last weekend. Because i couldnt remember the last game philly lost AND after the steelers game the narrative was that the “locker room” issues btwn AJG and hurts were “all better”.. thats where ppl lean the wrong way almost instinctively. My brain works as so : “or…. What if thats the all clear signal, we’re picking on a great team almost inventing flaws, now saying oh its fixed… thats my cue to lean against them”

Didnt always think that way, doesnt always work, but its done well for me
If it's working stay with it you know what you are doing and these are very astute points! This year has been overweight for sure. You were fortunate with Wash last weekend, with my Iggles losing Hurts. 😠
This is interesting today as their play book gets decreased by 50% without Jalen running RPO it effects everything in their offense, who would think Pickens is a threat on his feet, they will knock him into the stands if they get their shot! Plus he's injured. The Eagles will run the ball a lot today as Pickens is a liability. They are going to run like a 1960's team today and ask their offensive line to win this with some deep shots to AJ and Davante to jeep them honest. Good luck today and good information, always like to learn more and evolve!
 

rocky mountain

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Whoa. That’s a lot to read through.

Giants +7.5/4 7/4
Raiders -2/pk 5/5
Tits pk/pk 5/5
Cowboys +7.5/4 5/4
Jets +10/6.5 6/4
Your plays today's are a good sample set of Real Vision' thesis!
Current 2025 NFL Draft Order
Giants (2-13)
Patriots (3-13)
Jaguars (3-12)
Titans (3-12)
Browns (3-12)
Raiders (3-12)
Bears (4-12)
Panthers (4-11)
Jets (4-11)
 

EasyCovers

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I agree it does sound arrogant! Lol.. I think most everyone here gets reversion and variance , I tease alot about it, but I do get it. Basically, you have to be willing to pick ugly with extra points and accept ugly losses in spots, and that's a skill to be able to accept those type of teams. I personally don't like playing against healthy top tier teams with top qbs and coaches when they are playing with momentum. I'd rather stay away or die on my sword then hope the garbage team comes in within the bigger number against top tier team that are balling. There are so many games available that I wouldn't want to battle against momentum of a dominant offense and defense even if line gives a couple points in Turd teams favor. Disclaimer: I'm not close to the level , time, work and skill you and others put into this, as for me it can cause too much negativity in my life. I've learned alot watching how you guys play these spots, and do play some jf these dogs if ive seen signs of competiveness and functionality, but I can't go to well with some of these shit teams every weekend, at some point in think it's healthier to divorce them! Also, I'm not referring to your Houston play, but I have not liked the way they played all yr, Steelers are the only team they have a shot at beating in playoffs, but dont think they would win against them.
I’m with you. Maybe im not as skilled as some of the better guys here but how many times can you go with a shit team before they cover? The bad teams are just so bad and the lines will never catch up. Saints and Giants haven’t covered in weeks. I rather save the bullets.
 
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Jord20

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How was that possibly a TD in Jacksonville. Like he just didn’t get both down. Strange that they barely harped on it or showed that he wasn’t in
 

rocky mountain

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How was that possibly a TD in Jacksonville. Like he just didn’t get both down. Strange that they barely harped on it or showed that he wasn’t in
I saw it, his 2nd foot was out after it rolled. That's literally insane, starting to think you're cursed again.
 

rocky mountain

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Got Raiders over 41.5 -130
Have Thielen Live over 123.5 got lucky with getting ball back and last pass . Thought it was 2nd half play
 
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