hmmmm Immobile is still OUT for Lazio which is a little concerning as a lot of offense goes through him. I think Inter has scored at least 2 goals in their last 14 Serie A matches, I have to confirm. I think Inter will do most of the heavy lifting, but more on that soon.
ADDING
JUVE/ROMA OVER 2.5/3 -110
I am finalizing another 1 or 2 more and that will be it for the weekend.
EPL
WOLVERAMPTON/VILLA OVER 2 - 120
I sat on the sidelines and watched this line go from 2 -200 all the way down to -120, and I am jumping in. This is a gut call here, as most of the analytics don't scream Over. The Wolves got off to a slow start, but have been playing better. I saw metric that calculated scoring chances created by team. Outside of the top 4 no other team in the EPL has been creating as many quality scoring chances as the Wolves, they just haven't caught any breaks. Raul Jimenez should be back, he played in 3 Internationals , but didn't play full games, and is expected to play. The Korean kid they got from RBL has been really turning it on. I see Villas has some notables that are out, but they are shuffling things to get Buendia into the lineup for some creative attacking flow. I will take my chances here, Villa has been scoring, and has been kind to me for the most part.
SERIE A
SALERNO/SPEZIA OVER 2, 2.5 -125
This is a hold your nose play, 2 bottom feeders in the Serie A. Both of these squads will be up for this game, and they will both want 3 points. They played several times in Serie B the last 3 years with 4 of 5 going Over. The key to note here is that these 2 squads are amonst the worst in the Serie A, Spezia ranks dead last giving up 2.7 gpg, and Salernitana isn't far behind giving up over 2 goals per game. It is clear as day these teams can't stop anyone. I find in Serie A when the bottom dwellers meet up in these types of match ups, they make for some high scoring affairs. The flip side to this argument is that these teams are shit, and don't have much offensive flair, so proceed at your own risk lol. I was about to put this in at -110, and the Asian line just came into my wheel house so to lower my risk here with this scummy teams I am to play the 2, 2 1/2 line.
The other morning contest is MAN UTD/LEICESTER which I rank higher than the two I just mentioned. United really needs to figure it out, as they have been a mess only winning 1 of their last 4 games. They are still 2nd in shots, and shots on target, and 3rd in goals. Combined the teams are averaging over 3 goals per game. Man Utd is hardly a defensive stalwart, and I believe that Maguire and Verane are out today, have to check the line ups. On the other side, Leicester is piss poor on the defensive side this year. They rank 4th worst in the entire league for Goals allowed. I got this line at -125 which i felt was a bargain, I saw it at -150 today which imo is where it should have been from the start. I think we see Man U kick it into gear with a 2-1 or 3-1 win?
Good luck gents, l will chime in on the other matches when I get a moment. I have been quite busy with work, and I have been breaking down NHL games as well which has taken up some time.
Let's do it! :0corn
