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Larry Ness | CFB Side
triple-dime bet466 Missouri -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 465 Arkansas
Analysis:
Arkansas has come a long way since opening the year 0-3 in the SEC, ending the regular season with triple-OT win at LSU. Since the final game of the regular season, Arkansas has made plenty of headlines off the field. First, Houston Nutt decided to leave his post as head coach and take over at Ole Miss. Then, on December 11th, Bobby Petrino resigned as head coach of the Atlanta Falcons to fill the void left by Nutt. DC Reggie Herring will coach the Razorbacks in the Cotton Bowl. Missouri was one win away from a national title game appearance but lost to Oklahoma (for the second time TY) in the Big 12 title game. Missouri really deserved a BCS bid but was left out of the mix. Excluding Oklahoma, Missouri scored 36-plus points on EVERY opponent in '07, going 11-0 vs any school not based in Norman, Oklahoma! Daniel (4,170 YP / 69.7% / 33-10 ratio) was great at QB and when healthy, as he is now, Temple is an explosive RB. TE Rucker (81) and Coffman (51) are a deadly duo and freshman WR Maclin (9 TDs receiving, 4 rushing and 3 on kick returns) is just SPECIAL! While McFadden (1,725 yards) is the nation's best RB and Jones (1,117 / 9.1 YPC!) is a star in the making, QB Casey Dick has MAJOR limitations. His ratio went from 9-6 LY to 18-9 TY but he didn't reach 1,500 YP on the season, topping 200 yards in a game against only North Texas (Daniel topped 300 yards in EIGHT games!). The Missouri D will have no worries with Dick and over the season's final nine games, allowed just 101 YPG and 3.3 YPC on the ground. The Arkansas D allowed good but not great passing teams like Ala, Ky, Sou Car, Tenn and LSU to average 40.2 PPG. Just imagine what Daniel and Co. are capable of. Arkansas also has a terrible bowl history, going 3-12 SU (4-11 ATS) since '79, including a 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS on New Year's Day. Let's also note that so far this year, bowl teams playing after losing their head coach prior to the game, are now 0-5 SU with Fresno's win over Ga Tech (my 20* Underdog GOY!). LEGEND Play on Missouri.
triple-dime bet466 Missouri -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 465 Arkansas
Analysis:
Arkansas has come a long way since opening the year 0-3 in the SEC, ending the regular season with triple-OT win at LSU. Since the final game of the regular season, Arkansas has made plenty of headlines off the field. First, Houston Nutt decided to leave his post as head coach and take over at Ole Miss. Then, on December 11th, Bobby Petrino resigned as head coach of the Atlanta Falcons to fill the void left by Nutt. DC Reggie Herring will coach the Razorbacks in the Cotton Bowl. Missouri was one win away from a national title game appearance but lost to Oklahoma (for the second time TY) in the Big 12 title game. Missouri really deserved a BCS bid but was left out of the mix. Excluding Oklahoma, Missouri scored 36-plus points on EVERY opponent in '07, going 11-0 vs any school not based in Norman, Oklahoma! Daniel (4,170 YP / 69.7% / 33-10 ratio) was great at QB and when healthy, as he is now, Temple is an explosive RB. TE Rucker (81) and Coffman (51) are a deadly duo and freshman WR Maclin (9 TDs receiving, 4 rushing and 3 on kick returns) is just SPECIAL! While McFadden (1,725 yards) is the nation's best RB and Jones (1,117 / 9.1 YPC!) is a star in the making, QB Casey Dick has MAJOR limitations. His ratio went from 9-6 LY to 18-9 TY but he didn't reach 1,500 YP on the season, topping 200 yards in a game against only North Texas (Daniel topped 300 yards in EIGHT games!). The Missouri D will have no worries with Dick and over the season's final nine games, allowed just 101 YPG and 3.3 YPC on the ground. The Arkansas D allowed good but not great passing teams like Ala, Ky, Sou Car, Tenn and LSU to average 40.2 PPG. Just imagine what Daniel and Co. are capable of. Arkansas also has a terrible bowl history, going 3-12 SU (4-11 ATS) since '79, including a 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS on New Year's Day. Let's also note that so far this year, bowl teams playing after losing their head coach prior to the game, are now 0-5 SU with Fresno's win over Ga Tech (my 20* Underdog GOY!). LEGEND Play on Missouri.
Ben Burns' #1 BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR - New Year's Day
I'm laying the points with GEORGIA. I liked Georgia as soon as this matchup was announced and I've been thrilled to see the line dropping over the past few weeks. With the line significantly lower than what it opened at, I feel we're now getting terrific value on what I feel is the significantly better team. I had a pretty good read on the Warriors this season and I sucessfully played on them in their big win vs. Boise State. However, I also successfully played against the Warriors when they barely beat Nevada, winning 28-26. I also successfully released my WAC Conference Game of the Year on Louisiana Tech when the Bulldogs hosted the Warriors. Hawaii was laying four touchdowns but won by just a single points, 45-44. I felt that the Warriors were over-rated heading into both those games and I feel thats the case here. Sure the Warriors beat Boise State. However, that game came at Hawaii and we've since seen lightly regarded East Carolina also defeat Boise, on the same field. Looking at their road games, in addition to Nevada and LA Tech, we find that the Warriors faced UNLV, Idaho and San Jose State. To put it bluntly, none of those five teams are anywhere close to the class of Georgia. Conversely, the Bulldogs last six road games came against the likes of Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida and Georgia Tech. Those are six tough venues (well, maybe not Vanderbilt) and the Bulldogs won five of those games outright, including double-digit victories at Florida and Georgia Tech, most recently. Clearly, this is a very well-coached team which knows how to win away from home. They've also played some very tough competition in recent Bowls, most recently knocking off West Virginia last season. Additionally, the Bulldogs beat up on Florida State (26-13) when they played here at New Orleans in 2002. The Warriors' have had success in the Bowls this millennium. Those games have come at "The Hawaii Bowl" though, a major advantage for the home team. I feel that the Bulldogs 10-2 record is more impressive than the Warriors 12-0 mark. The Bulldogs closed out the year with six straight wins and the last five all came by double-digits. I look for them to prove that they're the better team with a double-digit victory, improving to 13-4 ATS their last 17 games on turf. *Bowl Game of the Year
I'm laying the points with GEORGIA. I liked Georgia as soon as this matchup was announced and I've been thrilled to see the line dropping over the past few weeks. With the line significantly lower than what it opened at, I feel we're now getting terrific value on what I feel is the significantly better team. I had a pretty good read on the Warriors this season and I sucessfully played on them in their big win vs. Boise State. However, I also successfully played against the Warriors when they barely beat Nevada, winning 28-26. I also successfully released my WAC Conference Game of the Year on Louisiana Tech when the Bulldogs hosted the Warriors. Hawaii was laying four touchdowns but won by just a single points, 45-44. I felt that the Warriors were over-rated heading into both those games and I feel thats the case here. Sure the Warriors beat Boise State. However, that game came at Hawaii and we've since seen lightly regarded East Carolina also defeat Boise, on the same field. Looking at their road games, in addition to Nevada and LA Tech, we find that the Warriors faced UNLV, Idaho and San Jose State. To put it bluntly, none of those five teams are anywhere close to the class of Georgia. Conversely, the Bulldogs last six road games came against the likes of Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida and Georgia Tech. Those are six tough venues (well, maybe not Vanderbilt) and the Bulldogs won five of those games outright, including double-digit victories at Florida and Georgia Tech, most recently. Clearly, this is a very well-coached team which knows how to win away from home. They've also played some very tough competition in recent Bowls, most recently knocking off West Virginia last season. Additionally, the Bulldogs beat up on Florida State (26-13) when they played here at New Orleans in 2002. The Warriors' have had success in the Bowls this millennium. Those games have come at "The Hawaii Bowl" though, a major advantage for the home team. I feel that the Bulldogs 10-2 record is more impressive than the Warriors 12-0 mark. The Bulldogs closed out the year with six straight wins and the last five all came by double-digits. I look for them to prove that they're the better team with a double-digit victory, improving to 13-4 ATS their last 17 games on turf. *Bowl Game of the Year
AAA
BOWL PLAY OF THE YEAR(THEY ARE USUALLY RIGHT ON WITH THIS PLAY)
OVER 50 USC/ILL
Note: It has not taken Ron Zook to long to turn this Illinois team into an offensive powerhouse. They are led by a very elusive QB, Juice Williams, who can beat you so many ways. He is going to have success verses the Trojans on New Year's Day and it is all because he is not a sitting duck like many QB's are in the Pac 10. This guy can throw, but more importantly he can beat you with the run, and he can beat you with his mobility in the pocket. As you know, I had these Trojans in their big win over AZ State, and all because of the great pressure they put on the QB. They did that very well and they followed it up with another nice effort verses UCLA to close out the 2007 campaign with a bang, winning their last 4 games, and primarily because of their defensive efforts. That fact alone has given us a super low Total Line for this one and I will thank the Oddsmakers for that. This is a different Animal coming to the West Coast though and USC is not going to be able to lay into the passer all game long. As most offensive squads do, the Iliini are peaking toward the end of the year, scoring 35 points per game over the last 4 games, and they they even managed 28 verses a very talented Ohio State team. They are going to get their points in this one. But the main reason to play this game is the USC scoring machine that has Booty back in the saddle and playing an Illinois D that has no way of stopping them. This offensive crew is performing as good as anyone in the country right now and their last two game yard margins are phenominal, with 447 verses the Bruins, and 508 verses AZ State. Those two D's are far better than what Illinois brings to the table and holding the Trojans down below 35 in this one is not going to be likely. We should not be fooled by what USC has done overall this year. They are healthy and they are hungry. It would not even surprise me if they got this total line all by themselves. Illinois is probably going to be working from behind most of this game. That is going to keep the ball in the air, and that is more than likely going to create some Boo Boo's. That very well might give us some bonus D points. Play OVER with confidence.
GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY NEW YEARS!!!
NCAAF: Wisconsin Badgers at Tennessee Volunteers - Tennessee -2 (Heavy Hitter) -110 | Unit Value: 3
Game Date: 1/1/2008
Note: I am not at all impressed with the play in the Big 10 this year and one of those teams is Wisconsin who has done quite well verses the lessor teams and no so good verses the better teams. The only real team that they beat this year was Michigan and certainly the Wolverines suffered through their worst season in a very long time. They have struggled away from the friendly confines and all 3 losses have come on the road. That is important for this game, because one of the things that I have noticed in Bowl situations, is that the Big 10 does not do so well having to always be the conference that has to travel the most. With most Bowls being in the South and West, and certainly all of the Bigger One's, the advantage lies with the squads playing in their own area, with much more familiar surroundings, local support, and a bigger fan base. Almost nobody travels as well as the Vols Fans, and this huge school also have fan support throughout the southeast. I have been to a Sugar Bowl and have seen Wisconsin play, and I have seen how many they bring to a game. It was not very impressive at all. Of course I would never play a game just based on the venue and that is not the primary reason to play this one. After a slow start, Tennessee is playing as good as anyone in the country and came a whisker away from winning the SEC championship. This team is excited about what they done and especially with the way the defense is playing. They have been as good as anyone at stopping the run over the last 6 games of the season and that is what Wisconsin brings to the table. However, they might not bring leading rusher P.J. Hill to the table suffering from a leg injury. The Vols are going to make Donovan pass the ball as they have have superior D Team Speed, and you just cannot run wide on them with any quality results. They grow'em big and fast at Tennessee and the overall speed between these two schools is overwhelming. We certainly have a huge advantage at the QB position for this one with Ainge being one of the best in the south and already breaking a few of Peyton Manning's marks at this school. He rarely makes mistakes and he is a true team leader. Ainge has 29 TDs, 10 INTs, 3,157 yards, and a 63% completion rate. His 300 completions has snapped the UT record of 287 set by Peyton Manning in 1997. That has been done playing in the best defensive conference in the country. Donovan's numbers are a far cry below that and one of the reasons is the fact that Ainge has bigger and faster recievers to throw to. There goes that team speed thing again. I suspect that while watching this game, you will take note at how quickly the Vols get to the ball on D, and how quickly they get to the endzone on O. I am laying this small number based on that fact alone.
2007 HEAVY HITTER RECORD: 205-104>66.34%
BOWL PLAY OF THE YEAR(THEY ARE USUALLY RIGHT ON WITH THIS PLAY)
OVER 50 USC/ILL
Note: It has not taken Ron Zook to long to turn this Illinois team into an offensive powerhouse. They are led by a very elusive QB, Juice Williams, who can beat you so many ways. He is going to have success verses the Trojans on New Year's Day and it is all because he is not a sitting duck like many QB's are in the Pac 10. This guy can throw, but more importantly he can beat you with the run, and he can beat you with his mobility in the pocket. As you know, I had these Trojans in their big win over AZ State, and all because of the great pressure they put on the QB. They did that very well and they followed it up with another nice effort verses UCLA to close out the 2007 campaign with a bang, winning their last 4 games, and primarily because of their defensive efforts. That fact alone has given us a super low Total Line for this one and I will thank the Oddsmakers for that. This is a different Animal coming to the West Coast though and USC is not going to be able to lay into the passer all game long. As most offensive squads do, the Iliini are peaking toward the end of the year, scoring 35 points per game over the last 4 games, and they they even managed 28 verses a very talented Ohio State team. They are going to get their points in this one. But the main reason to play this game is the USC scoring machine that has Booty back in the saddle and playing an Illinois D that has no way of stopping them. This offensive crew is performing as good as anyone in the country right now and their last two game yard margins are phenominal, with 447 verses the Bruins, and 508 verses AZ State. Those two D's are far better than what Illinois brings to the table and holding the Trojans down below 35 in this one is not going to be likely. We should not be fooled by what USC has done overall this year. They are healthy and they are hungry. It would not even surprise me if they got this total line all by themselves. Illinois is probably going to be working from behind most of this game. That is going to keep the ball in the air, and that is more than likely going to create some Boo Boo's. That very well might give us some bonus D points. Play OVER with confidence.
GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY NEW YEARS!!!
NCAAF: Wisconsin Badgers at Tennessee Volunteers - Tennessee -2 (Heavy Hitter) -110 | Unit Value: 3
Game Date: 1/1/2008
Note: I am not at all impressed with the play in the Big 10 this year and one of those teams is Wisconsin who has done quite well verses the lessor teams and no so good verses the better teams. The only real team that they beat this year was Michigan and certainly the Wolverines suffered through their worst season in a very long time. They have struggled away from the friendly confines and all 3 losses have come on the road. That is important for this game, because one of the things that I have noticed in Bowl situations, is that the Big 10 does not do so well having to always be the conference that has to travel the most. With most Bowls being in the South and West, and certainly all of the Bigger One's, the advantage lies with the squads playing in their own area, with much more familiar surroundings, local support, and a bigger fan base. Almost nobody travels as well as the Vols Fans, and this huge school also have fan support throughout the southeast. I have been to a Sugar Bowl and have seen Wisconsin play, and I have seen how many they bring to a game. It was not very impressive at all. Of course I would never play a game just based on the venue and that is not the primary reason to play this one. After a slow start, Tennessee is playing as good as anyone in the country and came a whisker away from winning the SEC championship. This team is excited about what they done and especially with the way the defense is playing. They have been as good as anyone at stopping the run over the last 6 games of the season and that is what Wisconsin brings to the table. However, they might not bring leading rusher P.J. Hill to the table suffering from a leg injury. The Vols are going to make Donovan pass the ball as they have have superior D Team Speed, and you just cannot run wide on them with any quality results. They grow'em big and fast at Tennessee and the overall speed between these two schools is overwhelming. We certainly have a huge advantage at the QB position for this one with Ainge being one of the best in the south and already breaking a few of Peyton Manning's marks at this school. He rarely makes mistakes and he is a true team leader. Ainge has 29 TDs, 10 INTs, 3,157 yards, and a 63% completion rate. His 300 completions has snapped the UT record of 287 set by Peyton Manning in 1997. That has been done playing in the best defensive conference in the country. Donovan's numbers are a far cry below that and one of the reasons is the fact that Ainge has bigger and faster recievers to throw to. There goes that team speed thing again. I suspect that while watching this game, you will take note at how quickly the Vols get to the ball on D, and how quickly they get to the endzone on O. I am laying this small number based on that fact alone.
2007 HEAVY HITTER RECORD: 205-104>66.34%
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Spylock
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1 Texas Tech
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1 Texas Tech
Aurthur Ralph Sports
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Superpick
Wisconsin
900 Daily BEST BETS
Missouri
Hawaii
Virginia
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Superpick
Wisconsin
900 Daily BEST BETS
Missouri
Hawaii
Virginia
Purelock
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premium play - let's add to all the other Bowl GOY's.
Virginia + Points
CFB Bowl Game of the Year
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premium play - let's add to all the other Bowl GOY's.
Virginia + Points
CFB Bowl Game of the Year
spritzer 25*
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michigan wolverines
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michigan wolverines
FERRINGO FOOTBALL
4-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #468 Florida (-3.5) over Michigan AND Take #472 USC (-6.5) over Illinois
2-Unit Play. Take #472 USC (-13.5) over Illinois (5 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 1)
The Big 10 stinks. I think both of these games are going to be ugly, ugly blowouts as the Florida and USC programs are just head and shoulders above either UM or Illinois. Also, there is no doubt that Urban Meyer and Pete Carroll will have far superior game plans with the extra preparation time. All in all I think this is one of my favorite plays of the bowl season.
3.5-Unit Play. Take #466 Missouri (-3) over Arkansas (11:30 a.m., Tuesday, Jan. 1)
I think the Tigers are the better team here and that we?re getting a bargain with this spread. If it had been -7 we would have likely stayed away here. But Arkansas has had a lot of trouble with pass-happy teams this year, losing to Alabama, Kentucky, and Tennessee this season. Missouri has lost to only Oklahoma and has handled other BCS bowl teams Illinois and Kansas. I think the Tigers make a statement and avoid the letdown. Mizzou is 8-1 ATS after a loss of 20 or more points, 11-3 ATS overall, and 5-1 ATS in neutral site games. The Hogs are just 2-5 ATS in nonconference games and just 2-5 SU in their last seven bowl games.
7-Unit Play. Take #474 Georgia (-7.5) over Hawaii (8:30 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 1)
I think this one gets ugly. I have nothing but confidence that Mark Richt, the master motivator, will have his Bulldogs ready to roll in this one. Hawaii is just 7-18 ATS against teams with a winning record and this game reminds me of when Boise State came to Athens in 2005 and got hammered by 35 points. Hawaii is 4-7 ATS as road dogs
4-7 as road dogs and is 10-15 ATS off the islands since 2003. Georgia is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 bowl games and 3-2 ATS in its last five. I think they dominate this one from start to finish and position themselves in the preseason Top 5 for next year.
4-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #468 Florida (-3.5) over Michigan AND Take #472 USC (-6.5) over Illinois
2-Unit Play. Take #472 USC (-13.5) over Illinois (5 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 1)
The Big 10 stinks. I think both of these games are going to be ugly, ugly blowouts as the Florida and USC programs are just head and shoulders above either UM or Illinois. Also, there is no doubt that Urban Meyer and Pete Carroll will have far superior game plans with the extra preparation time. All in all I think this is one of my favorite plays of the bowl season.
3.5-Unit Play. Take #466 Missouri (-3) over Arkansas (11:30 a.m., Tuesday, Jan. 1)
I think the Tigers are the better team here and that we?re getting a bargain with this spread. If it had been -7 we would have likely stayed away here. But Arkansas has had a lot of trouble with pass-happy teams this year, losing to Alabama, Kentucky, and Tennessee this season. Missouri has lost to only Oklahoma and has handled other BCS bowl teams Illinois and Kansas. I think the Tigers make a statement and avoid the letdown. Mizzou is 8-1 ATS after a loss of 20 or more points, 11-3 ATS overall, and 5-1 ATS in neutral site games. The Hogs are just 2-5 ATS in nonconference games and just 2-5 SU in their last seven bowl games.
7-Unit Play. Take #474 Georgia (-7.5) over Hawaii (8:30 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 1)
I think this one gets ugly. I have nothing but confidence that Mark Richt, the master motivator, will have his Bulldogs ready to roll in this one. Hawaii is just 7-18 ATS against teams with a winning record and this game reminds me of when Boise State came to Athens in 2005 and got hammered by 35 points. Hawaii is 4-7 ATS as road dogs
4-7 as road dogs and is 10-15 ATS off the islands since 2003. Georgia is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 bowl games and 3-2 ATS in its last five. I think they dominate this one from start to finish and position themselves in the preseason Top 5 for next year.
Strike Point Football
2-Unit Play. #464 Take Tennessee -2.5 over Wisconsin (1/1 - 11 am)
Despite several suspensions pending for the Vols, I expect the SEC team to come out on top, mainly due to the quarterback play of Erik Ainge over an inconsistent Tyler Donovan. And even if a couple of Tennessee players are unable to play, the question of starting running back for the Badgers P.J. Hill can prove just as important. Here, the Vols come out ahead, winning the turnover battle and get more from their ground game with Arian Foster and Montario Hardesty
4-Unit Play. Take Tennessee/Wisconsin Under 59.5 (1/1 - 11 am)
In this same match-up we'll see a low scoring affair between two teams that will show their rust after a long break. Wisconsin likes to play ball control, while Tennessee, too, establishes its rushing game. Both defenses will win their match-ups against their respective offenses, and this one will stay under the posted total. The under for Wisconsin is 5-1 in its last six non-conference games and 4-1 in its last five games vs. the SEC. Tennessee has stayed under in its last four bowl games, and they will here as well.
7-Unit Play (Bowl GOY). #465 Take Missouri -3 over Arkansas (1/1 - 11:30 am)
After getting the BCS snub, expect these Tigers to come out fired up and ready to play. Yes, you could make the case some teams would just go through the motions in a game they probably didn't want to be in, but not this Mizzou team. They suprised everyone this season and will be in the race next year, so this team knows the importance of a game like this that can bring a lot of buzz into the spring for this up-and-coming program. Chase Daniel will pick apart the Hogs defense with his four and five wide sets, while freshman sensation Jeremy Maclin will do what he does best: make plays whenever he touches the ball. Daniel will out produce both Arkansas running backs, and the Tigers will make a statement that they should have been in the BCS instead of either Illinois or Kansas. Missouri is the play here.
2-Unit Play. #464 Take Tennessee -2.5 over Wisconsin (1/1 - 11 am)
Despite several suspensions pending for the Vols, I expect the SEC team to come out on top, mainly due to the quarterback play of Erik Ainge over an inconsistent Tyler Donovan. And even if a couple of Tennessee players are unable to play, the question of starting running back for the Badgers P.J. Hill can prove just as important. Here, the Vols come out ahead, winning the turnover battle and get more from their ground game with Arian Foster and Montario Hardesty
4-Unit Play. Take Tennessee/Wisconsin Under 59.5 (1/1 - 11 am)
In this same match-up we'll see a low scoring affair between two teams that will show their rust after a long break. Wisconsin likes to play ball control, while Tennessee, too, establishes its rushing game. Both defenses will win their match-ups against their respective offenses, and this one will stay under the posted total. The under for Wisconsin is 5-1 in its last six non-conference games and 4-1 in its last five games vs. the SEC. Tennessee has stayed under in its last four bowl games, and they will here as well.
7-Unit Play (Bowl GOY). #465 Take Missouri -3 over Arkansas (1/1 - 11:30 am)
After getting the BCS snub, expect these Tigers to come out fired up and ready to play. Yes, you could make the case some teams would just go through the motions in a game they probably didn't want to be in, but not this Mizzou team. They suprised everyone this season and will be in the race next year, so this team knows the importance of a game like this that can bring a lot of buzz into the spring for this up-and-coming program. Chase Daniel will pick apart the Hogs defense with his four and five wide sets, while freshman sensation Jeremy Maclin will do what he does best: make plays whenever he touches the ball. Daniel will out produce both Arkansas running backs, and the Tigers will make a statement that they should have been in the BCS instead of either Illinois or Kansas. Missouri is the play here.
L O C K O F T H E D A Y .C O M
College Football Lock Of The Year:
Tennessee Volunteers -130
Tennessee wins this game going away. They are CLEARLY the dominant team here! Tennessee is coming off a loss in the SEC Championship game where they were leading LSU in the 4th quarter. QB Erik Ainge is playing terrific. Ainge is an NFL-caliber quarterback. He definitely wants to improve his draft position! He will have a monster game against this Wisconsin defense! The Tennessee offensive line has only given up 4 sacks all year!!! Wisconsin will be without their starting CB and DL who were lost in the Ohio State game. And the backup cornerback, who is now a starter, just tore his ACL a few days ago! Furthermore, Wisconsin ?s two safeties are young and inexperienced. They will give up BIG PLAYS! Tennessee 's wide receivers are big and fast and nobody on UW will stop them. Tennessee is averaging 35 ppg. Expect 40+ in this game!!! Tennessee also has a VERY GOOD defense. Tennessee held Georgia to 14 points!! They held Arkansas to 13 points! They held LSU to 21 points. You want to bet on hot teams in bowl games. Tennessee is hot! Tennessee has won seven of its past nine! Wisconsin 's best player, running back PJ Hill, is coming off a leg injury and will not start. THE BIG-10 WAS AWFUL THIS YEAR!! THE S.E.C. IS MUCH MUCH BETTER. This is a short bus trip for Tennessee , a long flight for Wisconsin . The sunny 80 degree weather in Tampa will favor the Volunteers! Tennessee has had terrific practices so far this week. Fulmer has them practicing in full pads. Their wide receivers look awesome!! We are betting BIG on Tennessee !!! TENNESSEE IS A LOCK!!!!!
College Football Lock Of The Year:
Tennessee Volunteers -130
Tennessee wins this game going away. They are CLEARLY the dominant team here! Tennessee is coming off a loss in the SEC Championship game where they were leading LSU in the 4th quarter. QB Erik Ainge is playing terrific. Ainge is an NFL-caliber quarterback. He definitely wants to improve his draft position! He will have a monster game against this Wisconsin defense! The Tennessee offensive line has only given up 4 sacks all year!!! Wisconsin will be without their starting CB and DL who were lost in the Ohio State game. And the backup cornerback, who is now a starter, just tore his ACL a few days ago! Furthermore, Wisconsin ?s two safeties are young and inexperienced. They will give up BIG PLAYS! Tennessee 's wide receivers are big and fast and nobody on UW will stop them. Tennessee is averaging 35 ppg. Expect 40+ in this game!!! Tennessee also has a VERY GOOD defense. Tennessee held Georgia to 14 points!! They held Arkansas to 13 points! They held LSU to 21 points. You want to bet on hot teams in bowl games. Tennessee is hot! Tennessee has won seven of its past nine! Wisconsin 's best player, running back PJ Hill, is coming off a leg injury and will not start. THE BIG-10 WAS AWFUL THIS YEAR!! THE S.E.C. IS MUCH MUCH BETTER. This is a short bus trip for Tennessee , a long flight for Wisconsin . The sunny 80 degree weather in Tampa will favor the Volunteers! Tennessee has had terrific practices so far this week. Fulmer has them practicing in full pads. Their wide receivers look awesome!! We are betting BIG on Tennessee !!! TENNESSEE IS A LOCK!!!!!
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
Virginia +6 vs Texas Tech
Single Plays
USC -13.5 vs Illinois
Hawaii +8 vs Georgia
Missouri/Arkansas Over 69
Texas Tech/Virginia Under 59
Double Plays
Virginia +6 vs Texas Tech
Single Plays
USC -13.5 vs Illinois
Hawaii +8 vs Georgia
Missouri/Arkansas Over 69
Texas Tech/Virginia Under 59
Teddy Covers
USC Under 50
When USC had Heisman winners Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at quarterback, their offense was a finely tuned machine. The Trojans averaged 41 points per game in 2003; 38 ppg in ?04 and 49 ppg in ?05, one of the most prolific, high scoring offenses in the country. Things have changed dramatically for Pete Carroll since John David Booty took over at quarterback, with a half dozen of USC?s best receivers moving on to the NFL. USC barely reached 30 ppg last year, and were held under 28 ppg in PAC-10 play this year. In fact, this offense was held to 24 points or less six times in their final eight games of the season. No surprise, then, that the Trojans were a dominant Under team this year, 10-2 to the Under in their dozen previous games.
But even with a mediocre offense that suffered from a subpar passing game, USC was still the PAC-10 winner and a national championship contender. Why? Their defense, of course, a unit stocked with NFL level talent. Nobody moved the football on a consistent basis against USC this year ? nobody; and the defense got better and better as the season progressed. In USC?s final seven games, opponents averaged just over 12 points per game against them. Most importantly, the Trojans allowed only 79 yards per game on the ground, with only one opponent all year managing to rush for 4.0 yards per carry or more against them.
That?s very bad news for an Illinois offense predicated on their ability to run the football. In the only two Big 10 games that Illinois failed to reach 200 yards on the ground, the Illini scored 6 and 17 points against Iowa and Michigan, with both games going Under the total by an average of 18 ppg. Make no mistake about it ? Juice Williams is no passing threat. The Illini exceeded 150 net passing yards only three times all year. Top receiving threat, frosh sensation Arrelious Benn caught 49 passes for 596 yards. The second leading wide receiver on the team, Jacob Willis, had a grand total of 18 receptions. If Juice and RB Rashard Mendenhall can?t run, the Illini offense isn?t going to move up and down the field. And this is most assuredly one game, against one defense likely to give them problems running the football.
Let?s not forget that with the lone exception of the Vince Young national championship game, USC?s defense has allowed 10, 17, 14, 19 and 18 points in Pete Carroll?s other five bowl games as the Trojans head man, with at least four of those games coming against stronger offenses than they?ll face here. While Illinois? defense can?t boast that same track record ? the Illini have not been bowling since 2001 ? it?s is certainly a capable unit that matches up well against the Trojans run-based offense. The Illini allowed only 114 rushing yards per game and eight rushing touchdowns all year! Look for a low scoring, grind-it-out game on the ground between two strong running offense and two rock solid running defenses, keeping this game Under the total. Take the Under.
Teddy Covers
Over 59 Florida
There?s a lot of concern about the weather in Orlando on Tuesday, with the potential for a rainy, windy day sending many bettors to the window for an Under wager, pushing this total down significantly. However, with the most current forecast (I write this approximately 24 hours before kickoff), the high winds and rain look like they should hold off until after the early start game. While it?s not going to be a picture perfect Florida day, it?s not likely to be a rain and wind induced mess on the field either. And, given the matchups in this ballgame, bad weather is about the only thing that could stop these two teams from marching up and down the field, putting up points in bunches.
Michigan?s defensive track record against spread offenses is positively abysmal, and that?s putting it mildly. The Wolverines faced to legitimate spread offenses with running quarterbacks this year, both at home. They gave up 34 points to 1-AA Appalachian State in their opener, and 39 points to Oregon the following week. It?s surely worth noting that Oregon could easily have hung 50+ on Michigan in that game, gaining well over 600 yards of offense, but the Ducks were simply trying to run out the clock in the second half. Michigan?s lone game against a spread offense with a mobile QB last year was equally disastrous defensively. The Wolverines gave up 42 points and nearly 500 yards to Ohio State in a game that went over the total by five touchdowns. And let?s not forget to mention Michigan?s consistent difficulties on defense in recent bowl games, allowing 32, 32, 38, 28, 30, 45, 28, 34 and 31 points in their last nine bowl games, without a single quality defensive performance to show for the last decade. This game should have a similar pace.
Urban Meyer?s offense is nearly unstoppable. Last year, in the national championship game against Ohio State, Florida put up 41 points without any sort of difficulty. Had the game been a shootout instead of a blowout, the Gators would have scored even more. This year, Florida?s offense has been dramatically better than last year?s version which produced less than 30 points per game. Heisman winner Tim Tebow personally accounted for an NCAA record 51 touchdowns: 22 on the ground, 29 through the air. The Gators offense averaged 42.5 points per game, going 9-2 to the Over in the process. Over the final month of the season, Florida averaged more than 50 points per game. Don?t expect the Wolverine defense to slow down the Gators potent attack one iota.
Florida?s 9-2 mark to the Over in their eleven lined games tells us a lot about their dynamic offense. It also tells us a lot about their mediocre defense, a unit that lost nine starters to the NFL last offseason. Away from home, the Gators gave up 30 points per game in 2007, struggling in particular against good quarterbacks on strong passing teams. Michigan?s offensive leaders, senior QB Chad Henne and senior RB Mike Hart, both spent much of the season playing at less than 100%, both battling a series of nagging injuries. Both are healthy heading into their final collegiate game, looking for a positive send-off for retiring head coach Lloyd Carr, looking to accomplish what they couldn?t do in their regular season finale against the Buckeyes.
The Wolverines scored 27+ on eight separate occasions this season, despite the injuries to their two best offensive players. The offensive line is loaded, anchored by four year starter , senior Jake Long, at left tackle. The receiving corps is just as loaded, thanks to Mario Manningham, Adrian Arrington and Greg Matthews, all of whom were ranked among the top ten receivers in the country in their respective recruiting classes. Look for the Wolverines to trade points with the Gators from start to finish in this contest, sending it flying Over the total. Take the Over.
Teddy Covers
Tennessee -1
Wisconsin seems to be getting a lot of credit in the betting marketplace for their recent bowl success. Make no mistake about it ? the Badgers have over-achieved in recent bowl games. Last year, they won outright as an underdog, 17-14 over Arkansas. The year before, in Barry Alvarez?s send-off game, the Badgers also won outright as an underdog, beating Auburn 24-10. In ?04, Wisconsin covered the eight point spread, losing by only three to Georgia. We?ve also seen Wisconsin wins as a seven point underdog in the ?02 Alamo Bowl against Colorado and as nine point dogs in the ?98 Rose Bowl against UCLA. To all of these strong performances from Wisconsin in the past, I say this: ?Big Deal?. This year?s Wisconsin team isn?t nearly as good as those teams from the recent past. Don?t expect another Badger upset victory this time around.
The exact opposite is true for Tennessee. The betting marketplace has looked at the Vols recent bowl failures as a favorite and reacted accordingly. After all, Tennessee lost as a favorite to Penn State last year, 20-10. They lost as a favorite to Clemson in the ?03 Peach Bowl and were blown out by Maryland in a pick ?em affair in that same bowl game in ?02. Yes, the recent track record isn?t very pretty, but, like Wisconsin, we?re not betting on recent editions ? we?re betting on a matchup between THIS year?s teams. And, frankly, this year?s teams aren?t even close ? there?s a lot more than two points separating these two programs right now.
Wisconsin is big and slow, a typical old school Big 10 program. They did all of their damage in Madison this year, just 2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS on the highway. The Badgers played an extremely weak non-conference slate, not facing a single bowl team. In Big 10 play, the Badgers lost to Illinois, Penn State and Ohio State, the three toughest teams they faced. Don?t be fooled by the win at home against Michigan ? the Wolverines rested numerous starters that week, in preparation for their Ohio State game the following week. Michigan State almost upset Wisconsin, in Madison. Their only dominant, signature victory against a bowl team all year came against Indiana, and there?s absolutely no way to compare a home win against the mediocre (at best) Hoosiers with a game in Florida against a team like Tennessee. In short, we can expect Wisconsin to be outclassed in this ballgame.
The last time we saw Tennessee, they were battling LSU to the wire in the SEC championship game. The Vols probably would have won that game if not for a subpar performance from senior quarterback Erik Ainge. Ainge has been mentored by offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe, the same guy who coached both Peyton and Eli Manning when they were at Tennessee and Ole Miss respectively. Cutcliffe has accepted the Duke head coaching job, but he?ll be calling the plays here one last time for his senior QB. I expect a positive send-off for both coach and quarterback.
Tennessee?s biggest problem in recent bowl games has been a lackadaisical attitude. Certainly from a talent perspective, the Vols clearly outclass the Badgers on both sides of the football, particularly in the speed department. There?s a class difference between these two teams that simply isn?t reflected in the pointspread. And with all reports out of Knoxville indicating that we should expect an inspired performance from the SEC East champs, the price here is very cheap to support the superior team with the superior defense and the superior quarterback. Take Tennessee.
USC Under 50
When USC had Heisman winners Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at quarterback, their offense was a finely tuned machine. The Trojans averaged 41 points per game in 2003; 38 ppg in ?04 and 49 ppg in ?05, one of the most prolific, high scoring offenses in the country. Things have changed dramatically for Pete Carroll since John David Booty took over at quarterback, with a half dozen of USC?s best receivers moving on to the NFL. USC barely reached 30 ppg last year, and were held under 28 ppg in PAC-10 play this year. In fact, this offense was held to 24 points or less six times in their final eight games of the season. No surprise, then, that the Trojans were a dominant Under team this year, 10-2 to the Under in their dozen previous games.
But even with a mediocre offense that suffered from a subpar passing game, USC was still the PAC-10 winner and a national championship contender. Why? Their defense, of course, a unit stocked with NFL level talent. Nobody moved the football on a consistent basis against USC this year ? nobody; and the defense got better and better as the season progressed. In USC?s final seven games, opponents averaged just over 12 points per game against them. Most importantly, the Trojans allowed only 79 yards per game on the ground, with only one opponent all year managing to rush for 4.0 yards per carry or more against them.
That?s very bad news for an Illinois offense predicated on their ability to run the football. In the only two Big 10 games that Illinois failed to reach 200 yards on the ground, the Illini scored 6 and 17 points against Iowa and Michigan, with both games going Under the total by an average of 18 ppg. Make no mistake about it ? Juice Williams is no passing threat. The Illini exceeded 150 net passing yards only three times all year. Top receiving threat, frosh sensation Arrelious Benn caught 49 passes for 596 yards. The second leading wide receiver on the team, Jacob Willis, had a grand total of 18 receptions. If Juice and RB Rashard Mendenhall can?t run, the Illini offense isn?t going to move up and down the field. And this is most assuredly one game, against one defense likely to give them problems running the football.
Let?s not forget that with the lone exception of the Vince Young national championship game, USC?s defense has allowed 10, 17, 14, 19 and 18 points in Pete Carroll?s other five bowl games as the Trojans head man, with at least four of those games coming against stronger offenses than they?ll face here. While Illinois? defense can?t boast that same track record ? the Illini have not been bowling since 2001 ? it?s is certainly a capable unit that matches up well against the Trojans run-based offense. The Illini allowed only 114 rushing yards per game and eight rushing touchdowns all year! Look for a low scoring, grind-it-out game on the ground between two strong running offense and two rock solid running defenses, keeping this game Under the total. Take the Under.
Teddy Covers
Over 59 Florida
There?s a lot of concern about the weather in Orlando on Tuesday, with the potential for a rainy, windy day sending many bettors to the window for an Under wager, pushing this total down significantly. However, with the most current forecast (I write this approximately 24 hours before kickoff), the high winds and rain look like they should hold off until after the early start game. While it?s not going to be a picture perfect Florida day, it?s not likely to be a rain and wind induced mess on the field either. And, given the matchups in this ballgame, bad weather is about the only thing that could stop these two teams from marching up and down the field, putting up points in bunches.
Michigan?s defensive track record against spread offenses is positively abysmal, and that?s putting it mildly. The Wolverines faced to legitimate spread offenses with running quarterbacks this year, both at home. They gave up 34 points to 1-AA Appalachian State in their opener, and 39 points to Oregon the following week. It?s surely worth noting that Oregon could easily have hung 50+ on Michigan in that game, gaining well over 600 yards of offense, but the Ducks were simply trying to run out the clock in the second half. Michigan?s lone game against a spread offense with a mobile QB last year was equally disastrous defensively. The Wolverines gave up 42 points and nearly 500 yards to Ohio State in a game that went over the total by five touchdowns. And let?s not forget to mention Michigan?s consistent difficulties on defense in recent bowl games, allowing 32, 32, 38, 28, 30, 45, 28, 34 and 31 points in their last nine bowl games, without a single quality defensive performance to show for the last decade. This game should have a similar pace.
Urban Meyer?s offense is nearly unstoppable. Last year, in the national championship game against Ohio State, Florida put up 41 points without any sort of difficulty. Had the game been a shootout instead of a blowout, the Gators would have scored even more. This year, Florida?s offense has been dramatically better than last year?s version which produced less than 30 points per game. Heisman winner Tim Tebow personally accounted for an NCAA record 51 touchdowns: 22 on the ground, 29 through the air. The Gators offense averaged 42.5 points per game, going 9-2 to the Over in the process. Over the final month of the season, Florida averaged more than 50 points per game. Don?t expect the Wolverine defense to slow down the Gators potent attack one iota.
Florida?s 9-2 mark to the Over in their eleven lined games tells us a lot about their dynamic offense. It also tells us a lot about their mediocre defense, a unit that lost nine starters to the NFL last offseason. Away from home, the Gators gave up 30 points per game in 2007, struggling in particular against good quarterbacks on strong passing teams. Michigan?s offensive leaders, senior QB Chad Henne and senior RB Mike Hart, both spent much of the season playing at less than 100%, both battling a series of nagging injuries. Both are healthy heading into their final collegiate game, looking for a positive send-off for retiring head coach Lloyd Carr, looking to accomplish what they couldn?t do in their regular season finale against the Buckeyes.
The Wolverines scored 27+ on eight separate occasions this season, despite the injuries to their two best offensive players. The offensive line is loaded, anchored by four year starter , senior Jake Long, at left tackle. The receiving corps is just as loaded, thanks to Mario Manningham, Adrian Arrington and Greg Matthews, all of whom were ranked among the top ten receivers in the country in their respective recruiting classes. Look for the Wolverines to trade points with the Gators from start to finish in this contest, sending it flying Over the total. Take the Over.
Teddy Covers
Tennessee -1
Wisconsin seems to be getting a lot of credit in the betting marketplace for their recent bowl success. Make no mistake about it ? the Badgers have over-achieved in recent bowl games. Last year, they won outright as an underdog, 17-14 over Arkansas. The year before, in Barry Alvarez?s send-off game, the Badgers also won outright as an underdog, beating Auburn 24-10. In ?04, Wisconsin covered the eight point spread, losing by only three to Georgia. We?ve also seen Wisconsin wins as a seven point underdog in the ?02 Alamo Bowl against Colorado and as nine point dogs in the ?98 Rose Bowl against UCLA. To all of these strong performances from Wisconsin in the past, I say this: ?Big Deal?. This year?s Wisconsin team isn?t nearly as good as those teams from the recent past. Don?t expect another Badger upset victory this time around.
The exact opposite is true for Tennessee. The betting marketplace has looked at the Vols recent bowl failures as a favorite and reacted accordingly. After all, Tennessee lost as a favorite to Penn State last year, 20-10. They lost as a favorite to Clemson in the ?03 Peach Bowl and were blown out by Maryland in a pick ?em affair in that same bowl game in ?02. Yes, the recent track record isn?t very pretty, but, like Wisconsin, we?re not betting on recent editions ? we?re betting on a matchup between THIS year?s teams. And, frankly, this year?s teams aren?t even close ? there?s a lot more than two points separating these two programs right now.
Wisconsin is big and slow, a typical old school Big 10 program. They did all of their damage in Madison this year, just 2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS on the highway. The Badgers played an extremely weak non-conference slate, not facing a single bowl team. In Big 10 play, the Badgers lost to Illinois, Penn State and Ohio State, the three toughest teams they faced. Don?t be fooled by the win at home against Michigan ? the Wolverines rested numerous starters that week, in preparation for their Ohio State game the following week. Michigan State almost upset Wisconsin, in Madison. Their only dominant, signature victory against a bowl team all year came against Indiana, and there?s absolutely no way to compare a home win against the mediocre (at best) Hoosiers with a game in Florida against a team like Tennessee. In short, we can expect Wisconsin to be outclassed in this ballgame.
The last time we saw Tennessee, they were battling LSU to the wire in the SEC championship game. The Vols probably would have won that game if not for a subpar performance from senior quarterback Erik Ainge. Ainge has been mentored by offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe, the same guy who coached both Peyton and Eli Manning when they were at Tennessee and Ole Miss respectively. Cutcliffe has accepted the Duke head coaching job, but he?ll be calling the plays here one last time for his senior QB. I expect a positive send-off for both coach and quarterback.
Tennessee?s biggest problem in recent bowl games has been a lackadaisical attitude. Certainly from a talent perspective, the Vols clearly outclass the Badgers on both sides of the football, particularly in the speed department. There?s a class difference between these two teams that simply isn?t reflected in the pointspread. And with all reports out of Knoxville indicating that we should expect an inspired performance from the SEC East champs, the price here is very cheap to support the superior team with the superior defense and the superior quarterback. Take Tennessee.
JORGE GONZALEZ
Missouri -3
The Arkansas Razorbacks will lack focus with the head coaching situation (Houston Nutt left the program to take a job at Ole Miss and Arkansas hired Bobby Petrino away from the Atlanta Falcons but he won't coach in the bowl game). The Tigers have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Heisman finalist Chase Daniels, and will be looking to finish off the season strong.
Georgia -9
Georgia is on another level than the Hawaii Rainbows. Despite finishing the regular season undefeated, Hawaii was not very impressive in its only game against a BCS conference opponent -- Washington -- falling behind by 21 points early. The Pack pushed Hawaii to the wire in a loss at Mackay Stadium earlier this season, when Hawaii quarterback Colt Brennan was out.
Missouri -3
The Arkansas Razorbacks will lack focus with the head coaching situation (Houston Nutt left the program to take a job at Ole Miss and Arkansas hired Bobby Petrino away from the Atlanta Falcons but he won't coach in the bowl game). The Tigers have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Heisman finalist Chase Daniels, and will be looking to finish off the season strong.
Georgia -9
Georgia is on another level than the Hawaii Rainbows. Despite finishing the regular season undefeated, Hawaii was not very impressive in its only game against a BCS conference opponent -- Washington -- falling behind by 21 points early. The Pack pushed Hawaii to the wire in a loss at Mackay Stadium earlier this season, when Hawaii quarterback Colt Brennan was out.
