Michael Cannon
Tuesday's Plays...
25 Dime
VIRGINIA
Take the points with Virginia today in the Gator Bowl over Texas Tech.
Virginia has been a solid team this year, and it was led by a defense that held the opposition to 18.8 ppg and 325 ypg. They held 10 of their 12 opponents to 23 points or fewer, with six of them scoring 17 or less. Chris Long, Howie?s son, is the ACC defensive player of the year and ranked third in the nation in sacks.
I don?t know what it is, but I just can?t trust the kind of offense Texas Tech runs in a bowl game. There?s no question Graham Harrell can sling it with the best of them, but when it comes down to crunch time can they get it done in this type of setting?
In the Red Raiders? bowl game last year they had all the statistical advantages over a very weak Minnesota secondary, but they had to pull off a huge comeback just to get the win and never threatened to cover.
Texas Tech was 3-1 ATS as a road favorite this year, while Virginia went 3-0 ATS as a road underdog.
The Red Raiders are 2-5 ATS as a favorite in bowl games and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 against winning teams.
The Cavaliers have just enough offense to keep themselves within this number and have played solid football all season long.
Take the points with Virginia as they grab the cash for us in the Gator Bowl.
10 Dime
MISSOURI
Take Missouri minus the number this morning over Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl.
Is it me or does it feel like Missouri got the shaft this bowl season? They only lost to one team all season, Oklahoma, and beat BCS-bound Illinois and Kansas on neutral fields.
So why did the latter two get better invitations?
It?s hard to say but I think it will serve more as a motivating tool than a distraction.
As for Arkansas, running back Darren McFadden was wrapped up in a controversy surrounding his involvement with an agent and the purchasing of a new SUV. It looks like he?ll play, but you have to wonder why he would even want to?
McFadden has everything to lose and nothing to gain by playing in this game. He?s going to be a Top 3 pick in the NFL draft, and it?s not like he?s playing for the national championship here. One bad injury and he could lose out on millions of dollars.
Plus you have the coaching distraction of Houston Nutt?s departure and the strange hiring of Bobby Petrino. The Razorbacks will be coached by defensive coordinator Reggie Herring for this game, but the way their stop unit played down the stretch that might not be such a good thing.
Arkansas surrendered 149 points in the last four games, including 31 to a Mississippi State team that would have trouble moving the ball against some high schools.
Now they?re going to step it up and contain Chase Daniel and the high-octane passing offense of Missouri?
I just don?t see it happening here.
Arkansas is mired in a 3-12 funk in bowl games (4-11 ATS) dating to 1979, including last year?s 17-14 loss to Wisconsin in the Capital One Bowl. The Razorbacks are also 3-6-1 all-time in the Cotton Bowl (1-2 ATS).
Missouri is on spread runs of 11-3 overall, 8-2 as a favorite, 8-2 against winning teams, 5-1 in neutral-site games and 5-0 against non-league foes.
Lay the points with Missouri as they grab the win and cover over Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl.
USC
Lay the points with Usc in the Rose Bowl over Illinois.
You can argue that nobody in the nation is playing better football than Usc is right now. They are finally healthy and that could spell big trouble for Illinois.
I personally believe Usc is the most talented team in the nation and would side with them over each of the two BCS championship teams.
The Trojans? defense is too fast and athletic for Illinois quarterback Juice Williams to be much of a factor here. In fact, he?ll probably be exposed for what he really is, an athlete who can?t read defenses.
The Illini love to run it on offense, but they?re going against a Trojans defense that gave up just 16 ppg and 258.8 ypg, including 79.2 ypg rushing.
The Usc offense will hold up its end of the bargain behind quarterback John David Booty and a deep group of tailbacks led by Chauncey Washington.
The Illini are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 on grass and 1-5 ATS in their last six non-Big Ten contests.
Usc is on spread runs of 19-7 in non-conference games, 4-1 in bowl games, 4-1 as a favorite, 6-0 against the Big Ten and 9-3 against teams with a winning record.
Take Usc minus the points as they grab the win and cover in the Rose Bowl.
5 Dime
FLORIDA
Take Florida minus the number over Michigan in the Capital One Bowl.
It?s no secret the Wolverines had trouble with spread offenses this year, and if there?s one coach who can exploit that again it?s Florida?s Urban Meyer.
Meyer has the ultimate quarterback for this offense in Tim Tebow. The Heisman Trophy winner can run it just as good as he can pass it, which will keep a slow, plodding Michigan defense on its heels the whole game.
Florida just has too much overall team speed for Michigan to overcome. The Wolverines played much better when it was a hat-on-hat, smashmouth type of game but they won?t see that today.
Michigan has also struggled in bowl games under the recently retired Lloyd Carr, going 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS. They have lost four consecutive bowls following last year?s 32-18 loss to Usc in the Rose Bowl.
Meyer has won four-straight bowl games going 4-0 ATS, including two in a row since arriving in Gainesville.