June & July

[BASON]

We know we agree on Poland. I will simply go large on the GL and ML.

I have spent a lot of time on the Germany/Italy game. I played Italy +.5 -139. History can not be ignored in this series, it is all over the German papers and quotes from all past German players always reference it. The great play and confidence of Italy can not be ignored. They are playing fantastic as a team especially on defense. I think Germany is the better team overall but they will not run away with this game. It will be a close hard fought war. I think the winner will win the tournament. My prediction is a draw with a German victory in extra time.

I lean towards Belgium, but do not love it. I really like France to win as much as I admire the Iceland team. Like I said previously, France has a great midfield, unlike England, and it should be the difference in the match. The size of this bet will depend on the Poland game, since that game will set up all others.

Have to admit that I have been wrong about some line moves in this tournament, but I did take Poland and Italy +.5 today at -145 and -139, respectively, as I think they will change once the heavier betting starts in the early morning EST.

 

[THE_THONG]

Italy looks like they have the best defense

France, the best offense

opcorn2

 

[PittsburghKid]

Poland 3* to win 8.4*
Poland +.5 16* to win 10*
Poland FH 1* to win 3.7* L
Poland to advance 5* to win 7.5*
Poland draw no bet 3* to win 4.5*
Poland to win either half 3* to win 4.5*
Poland to score first 3* to win 4.5* W

Hopefully I don't get hammered again. +185.7* on year

Italy future pending 2* to win 20* as well

Halftime
I dont see this ending 1-1

Poland/Portugal over 2.5 4.3* to win 2*
Poland TT Over 1.5 2* to win 3.2*
Poland Next goal 1* to win 2.5*
Poland 1* to win 3.3*

 

[PittsburghKid]

Poland to win in a shootout 3* to win 6* Poland/Portugal under .5 extra time 4.2* to win 3*
Poland Portugal draw extra time 3.4* to win 2*

 

[PittsburghKid]

Poland 3* to win 8.4* L
Poland +.5 16* to win 10* W
Poland FH 1* to win 3.7* L
Poland to advance 5* to win 7.5* L
Poland draw no bet 3* to win 4.5* P
Poland to win either half 3* to win 4.5* L
Poland to score first 3* to win 4.5* W

Hopefully I don't get hammered again. +185.7* on year

Italy future pending 2* to win 20* as well

Halftime
I dont see this ending 1-1

Poland/Portugal over 2.5 4.3* to win 2* L
Poland TT Over 1.5 2* to win 3.2* L
Poland Next goal 1* to win 2.5* L
Poland 1* to win 3.3* L

Poland to win in a shootout 3* to win 6* L
Poland/Portugal under .5 extra time 4.2* to win 3* w
Poland Portugal draw extra time 3.4* to win 2* w

181.9* to the second. This portgual team screws me when I take them and go against them.

 

[PittsburghKid]

Honestly though, I got greedy if it just took he +.5 as a big play I'd of been good.. Added a lot more but that's also what has made me successful. When I see a game I really like, I like to bang it in a variety of ways.. Still up a ton on the year

 

[BASON]

I was going to say something to that effect, but then figured it wasn't my place. Never like to tell people how to bet or even comment. When I was younger, I used to bet the same way, but that changed over the years. I rarely play more than one or two plays on the same game. I did play the ML, GL and Draw in the Poland game but I don't do that very often. Nothing is more frustrating than when you really like a game, have the right side and win very little or break even based on your bets. Happens to everyone, many times. This is also why I stay away from first half bets, which leads to second half bets, etc.

I am adding the over as a play in the Belgium game with some Poland winnings. Wales is not a team that is likely to park the bus and they are very good on the counter. I think they get a goal, so with the total still sitting on 2, I think a push is worst case with a good chance to win. Belgium 2-1.

Also adding the draw in the Italy game. I keep going over this game in my head and most of the time I end on a draw. Think we see a classic, can't wait!

 

[BASON]

Not sure why the total came down to -120, but I am adding some to it. Belgium is forced to make 2 changes in the back which will weaken their defense.

 

[PittsburghKid]

haha bason I knew it was my fault with portugal but right after the game I just wanted to complain

Leaving in a few hours

Italy PK 3* to win 4.8*
Italy +.5 4.5* to win 3*
Italy to advance 3* to win 4.8*
France 9.4* to win 4*

Wales +.5 4.2* to win 3*


I'll hopefully be back for the final.

 

[BASON]

Have a great trip!

 

[BASON]

The France game went as scripted. Just too much fire power in the midfield.

Had a huge week and tourney. Should quit and keep the bankroll for league seasons, but I don't think I can after seeing the France/Germany line open at Germany +190 which makes France a slight favorite. Should be other way around in my opinion. There will be an overreaction to the France blowout and the mostly boring Germany performance. However, this will not be Germany/Italy (I am also surprised at the over 2 -115). I expect a totally different game. France is weak in the back and Germany will exploit this. I also expect France to score. I am taking the over 2 (large and best play) on the opening line and will take a harder look at the Germany injuries/suspensions over the next few days before I place the game bet.

Hope the fish are biting Kid!

 

[BASON]

I have made my thoughts on this Portugal team clear throughout the tourney and they have won us money by not being able to win in regulation. However, they are miraculously in the semi-final despite uninspired play. Portugal has made 6 Euro or World Cup semi-finals and has won only once and that was on home soil. Wales on the other hand is the newcomer and has been my favorite team of the tourney. They play great tactically as a team with pace and play with passion. They will be tested today without Ramsey and Davies (I will save my rant on the ridiculous yellow card rules for a later date) who both have excelled in this tournament. I do not think Wales will change their style of play while Portugal will continue to play conservative and try to avoid the Wales counterattack with Bale, and hope for Ronaldo to get back in form and win the game on a great individual play.

The suspensions are giving me some pause with the size of my play, but I am sticking with Wales +.5 as a regular play and I will sprinkle some on the +330 in case they win in regulation. I simply do not think Portugal will win in regulation.

 

[BASON]

Portugal finally stuck it to me. Wales missed Ramsey much more than I expected.

Been thinking about the Germany game for a while and I keep coming to the simple conclusion that Germany +200 is a tremendous value bet. They have never lost a game over the last 50 years on the hosts home soil in the Euros or World Cup (most recently devastated Brazil at the World Cup and I believe its 9 straight games). Quite a stat to me. All the pressure is on France. Too much being made of Germany changes. I don't think they are weakened much at all. Still playing the over, but playing Germany +200 as well as Germany to advance. France certainly can win this game, but I won't bet against Germany in this situation.

Whoever wins beats Portugal. Will pound that game.

 

[BASON]

Gave a little back last couple games.

I expect France to roll in the final. They got dominated in the first half against Germany and got all the momentum at the end of the half with the penalty kick. I think all their nerves are gone and they will play with pace and passion in this game for the home crowd. I think -105 is a fantastic price for this game. I see a 2-0 France victory. Laying half of my winnings from the tournament on France to win.

Good Luck!!

 

[PittsburghKid]

+180.7* to the second.

sucks to find out italy lost ok PKs. didnt see any of semi games or last 2 quarterfinal games

cant believe portugal is in final but they are finding ways to win and thats all you need to do.. with that said Im on france. Replica of 98', they take home the gold at home.

France 5* to win 5*
France to win either half 4.9* o win 3*
Total subs FH under .5 4.2* to win 1* minus an injury this picks up 1* easily, right? up a lot on year so worth it to me.
France to score first 4.2* to win 3*
France PK 11* to win 5*
France FH PK 4* to win 2*

Portugal to win in shootout 1* to win 11*. I think if portgal wins its in a shotout. Just playing this to maybe cover other bets? meh its my money so this is what im doing

Prop
method of first goal direct free kick 1* to win 16*

 

[BASON]

Welcome back Kid, hope the trip went well.

This line has me shaking my head as it keeps creeping down and now sits at Even. Not sure what I am missing. Looks like the draw is getting hit hard. I just don't see it.

La France sera victorieux!!

 

[PittsburghKid]

Welcome back Kid, hope the trip went well. This line has me shaking my head as it keeps creeping down and now sits at Even. Not sure what I am missing. Looks like the draw is getting hit hard. I just don't see it. La France sera victorieux!!

Trip went very well but tiring! Not really a vacation, involves lots of work..

Yea I don't know why either. This Portugal team must be a team of destiny?? Maybe Ronaldo takes over?

 

[BASON]

Just a shitty end of the tournament for me. I should have quit after the quarters, but instead I gave over half of my winnings back. But that is soccer. Sometimes teams simply can not score, and unfortunately, the best team doesn't always win. The fact that Portugal is taking this to extra time is unreal to me. I guess the money move was right on, but this is not a great team.

Overall, I was disappointed with the quality of play in the tournament. Too many slow, defensive, ugly games for me and the final kinds of just sums it up. Oh well, will now focus on the transfers and then start handicapping for the league seasons. Premier League should be fantastic this year as top teams are spending money like a new lottery winner.

 

[PittsburghKid]

+180.7* to the second. sucks to find out italy lost ok PKs. didnt see any of semi games or last 2 quarterfinal games cant believe portugal is in final but they are finding ways to win and thats all you need to do.. with that said Im on france. Replica of 98', they take home the gold at home. France 5* to win 5* France to win either half 4.9* o win 3* Total subs FH under .5 4.2* to win 1* minus an injury this picks up 1* easily, right? up a lot on year so worth it to me. France to score first 4.2* to win 3* France PK 11* to win 5* France FH PK 4* to win 2* Portugal to win in shootout 1* to win 11*. I think if portgal wins its in a shotout. Just playing this to maybe cover other bets? meh its my money so this is what im doing Prop method of first goal direct free kick 1* to win 16*

Just realized terminology above was wrong and apologize.. The France PK was actually to lift the trophy. PK was a push..

 

[PittsburghKid]

Just a shitty end of the tournament for me. I should have quit after the quarters, but instead I gave over half of my winnings back. But that is soccer. Sometimes teams simply can not score, and unfortunately, the best team doesn't always win. The fact that Portugal is taking this to extra time is unreal to me. I guess the money move was right on, but this is not a great team. Overall, I was disappointed with the quality of play in the tournament. Too many slow, defensive, ugly games for me and the final kinds of just sums it up. Oh well, will now focus on the transfers and then start handicapping for the league seasons. Premier League should be fantastic this year as top teams are spending money like a new lottery winner.

As I said earlier they are doing justttttt wvkigh to get by.. Sucks but that is how soccer goes...