LETS GO OVER - NEVER UNDER - 2022/2023

[Crookity]

Let's get ready to rumbleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

I am back , and very excited for the start of European football. I have been keeping a very close eye on the pre season campaigns, as well as all the developments in the busy summer transfer period. I pretty much have Match Day 1 mapped out for England, Germany, and Italia.

Back soon with plays to kick this campaign off.

 

[jdg226]

Welcome back. Here's to another great year :toast:

 

[PittsburghKid]

Welcome back!

 

[Crookity]

Hi JDG and Kidd , glad to be back!

Its the final weekend before things get real. I am not posting any plays yet, just tinkering around with some small action parlays for shits and giggles , and paying close attention to the results. I just watched Arsenal dismantle Sevilla in about 20 minutes in the Emirates Cup. I really like what I have seen from the Gunners this pre season campaign. They were the youngest team in the EPL last year, and were top of the charts in a lot of scoring metrics. They have lit it up this pre season as well. I am going to put out my week 1 plays soon, I am on Arsenal/Crystal Palace Over in the kick off to the EPL campaign, you can still find + money on that Over. I am looking forward to seeing some other Cup games 'pool/City and Leipzig/Bayern should be fun! City is soooooo stacked wow, if Haaland brings it like he did in Bundesliga watch out! I know Bayern lost Lewandowski , but man they have made some very nice moves. I think Mane is going to light it up for them. I can't wait for things to get rolling.

Back soon.

 

[Crookity]

Ok, let's get it started. I will follow my general principles ; I generally don't go over a total of 3 , and don't play a line over -150. I will be progressively working up the stake amount as we get going into the season, and I have some more data to work with.

Champions League
MONACO/PSV OVER 2.5 - 134
PSV was a big cash cow to the Over last year. They have played 7 times this summer since June. PSV scored 2 goals or more in 5 of the 7 games, and they come into this after lighting up their arch nemesis Ajax 5-3 in the Dutch Super Cup. They are trending in the right direction having scored 12 goals in their last 3 contests. They still have to go through some qualifying stages to get to the Group Stage of UCL, so here they are , set up with a game vs Monaco. Historically, PSV has fared well vs Monaco, and I think they will feel good about themselves heading into this game. I am not big on Monaco, but I believe they have what it takes to find the net . I like what Monaco has done this off season bringing in Embolo from 'Gladbach, and Minamino from Liverpool, those are 2 really nice attacking additions. I am banking on at least 3 goals in this first leg qualifying game. If PSV is on their game , I see them finding the net multiple times, and Monaco is capable of helping the cause and finding the net themselves at home.


EPL - can add thoughts on these later in the week.
CRYSTAL PALACE /ARSENAL OVER 2.5 +100
SOUTHAMPTON/TOTTENHAM OVER 2.5 - 150
MAN CITY/WEST HAM OVER 3 +100

 

[Crookity]

tough start to the year, I expected more from that PSV/Monaco game. Both teams didn't look well oiled that is for sure. There were a few point blank misses. Monaco hit the inside of the post off a header from about 5 yards out in the 87th minute that would of sealed it, what can you do.

 

[Crookity]

Ok, let's get it started. I will follow my general principles ; I generally don't go over a total of 3 , and don't play a line over -150. I will be progressively working up the stake amount as we get going into the season, and I have some more data to work with.

Champions League
MONACO/PSV OVER 2.5 - 134
PSV was a big cash cow to the Over last year. They have played 7 times this summer since June. PSV scored 2 goals or more in 5 of the 7 games, and they come into this after lighting up their arch nemesis Ajax 5-3 in the Dutch Super Cup. They are trending in the right direction having scored 12 goals in their last 3 contests. They still have to go through some qualifying stages to get to the Group Stage of UCL, so here they are , set up with a game vs Monaco. Historically, PSV has fared well vs Monaco, and I think they will feel good about themselves heading into this game. I am not big on Monaco, but I believe they have what it takes to find the net . I like what Monaco has done this off season bringing in Embolo from 'Gladbach, and Minamino from Liverpool, those are 2 really nice attacking additions. I am banking on at least 3 goals in this first leg qualifying game. If PSV is on their game , I see them finding the net multiple times, and Monaco is capable of helping the cause and finding the net themselves at home.


EPL - can add thoughts on these later in the week.
CRYSTAL PALACE /ARSENAL OVER 2.5 +100
SOUTHAMPTON/TOTTENHAM OVER 2.5 - 150
MAN CITY/WEST HAM OVER 3 +100

BUNDESLIGA

UNION/HERTHA OVER 2.5 +105
RBL/STUTGART OVER 2.5 - 125

I don't play too many parlays, and don't generally post them. For what its worth I tied a bunch of 2 bangers with Bayern/Frankfurt, Dortmund/Leverkusen, Gladbach/Hoffenheim weeks ago on the look ahead lines, and the lines are major steamed now. l wouldn't play them now at current prices on the 2.5 but I think all of those games have at least 3 in them.

 

[Crookity]

Ok, let's get it started. I will follow my general principles ; I generally don't go over a total of 3 , and don't play a line over -150. I will be progressively working up the stake amount as we get going into the season, and I have some more data to work with.

Champions League
MONACO/PSV OVER 2.5 - 134
PSV was a big cash cow to the Over last year. They have played 7 times this summer since June. PSV scored 2 goals or more in 5 of the 7 games, and they come into this after lighting up their arch nemesis Ajax 5-3 in the Dutch Super Cup. They are trending in the right direction having scored 12 goals in their last 3 contests. They still have to go through some qualifying stages to get to the Group Stage of UCL, so here they are , set up with a game vs Monaco. Historically, PSV has fared well vs Monaco, and I think they will feel good about themselves heading into this game. I am not big on Monaco, but I believe they have what it takes to find the net . I like what Monaco has done this off season bringing in Embolo from 'Gladbach, and Minamino from Liverpool, those are 2 really nice attacking additions. I am banking on at least 3 goals in this first leg qualifying game. If PSV is on their game , I see them finding the net multiple times, and Monaco is capable of helping the cause and finding the net themselves at home.


EPL - can add thoughts on these later in the week.
CRYSTAL PALACE /ARSENAL OVER 2.5 +100
SOUTHAMPTON/TOTTENHAM OVER 2.5 - 150
MAN CITY/WEST HAM OVER 3 +100

I think these two games below have atleast 2 and with the right bounces should have a shot at the over 2.5. The 2.5 is + $, I will take the insurance on the Asian line refunding half my wager if they only get 2 goals. I wanted to see the lineups on these first before playing them.

BOURNMOUTH/VILLA OVER 2, 2 1/2 -115

NF/NEWCASTLE OVER 2, 21/2 -125

 

[Crookity]

Sorry to anyone who followed, dropped 6 bets by 1 goal. Talk about not getting any bounces :facepalm:.

I see a few for next week, will scale down the volume of plays.

 

[jdg226]

The bounces will come. :0008

 

[Crookity]

Looking for a better week. I will start with these and add from here.

EPL
LEEDS/SOUTHAMPTON OVER 2.5 -138

ARSENAL/LEICESTER OVER 2.5 -138

I am not opposed to the 3 either of these EPL games, in fact I did throw some change on the 3 at + money to compliment the bulk of my stake which is on the 2.5

SERIE A
ACM/UDINESE OVER 2.5 -138

 

[Crookity]

Looking for a better week. I will start with these and add from here.

EPL
LEEDS/SOUTHAMPTON OVER 2.5 -138

ARSENAL/LEICESTER OVER 2.5 -138

I am not opposed to the 3 either of these EPL games, in fact I did throw some change on the 3 at + money to compliment the bulk of my stake which is on the 2.5

SERIE A
ACM/UDINESE OVER 2.5 -138

I will add this one , there is lots I like out there. Much of what I do is a blend of analytics and eye test from watching matchups. Until I got more data to play with I am trying to be selective.

BUNDESLIGA

HERTHA/FRANKFURT OVER 2.5 -138

 

[Crookity]

Ok I feel like the tide is turning in this 2nd week. Finally getting some bounces, big second half in England cashed the tickets nicely. The over 3 goals at +120 was a nice bonus ! My pre season assessment of Arsenal was bang on. Big ups to Artera and management for what they are doing over there. Keep your eyes on Arsenal guys especially at home. They are going to fill the net up.

The Bundesliga game with Hertha/Frankfurt had VAR call back a penalty in the 87 minute or I think we would of taken that one down too. I am looking for some goals in the ACM game to round out a nice day. I think they will be pumped at home , 1st game of the season after lifting the trophy last year, let's see.

 

[Crookity]

I see potential for goals here , I like the line ups.

ATALANTA/SAMP OVER 2.5 -138

BRENTFORD/MAN UNITED OVER 2.5 -125

 

[jdg226]

Back on track. Nice day. Thanks.:toast:

 

[Crookity]

Back on track. Nice day. Thanks.:toast:

Thanks JDG, we narrowly missed a clean sweep as both the games that fell a goal short could of easily went Over. It was a profitable day nonetheless.

Today I am going to take my chances with one play.


LAZIO/BOLOGNA OVER 2.5 -138 - Lazio is a prolific home club, if they come to play they should find the net a few times. Only Inter scored more goals than Lazio and they return for the most part the same squad with a few new additions.

 

[TurdofDoom]

You’re 4-0 when I follow…I’m not claiming any level of expertise. Dumb luck.

 

[Crookity]

You’re 4-0 when I follow…I’m not claiming any level of expertise. Dumb luck.

Hey Turdo, Glad that you were able to find some winners. This past week was successful having taken down 5 of 7 on the posted plays. My intention is to give a lot more winners than losers, so hopefully you can keep finding some success over here lol.


Today guys I have no posted plays. For what it is worth I need this Juve/Sass game O2.5 to close a ticket from 2 weeks out, so I will just ride that and hope for goals. I see the 2.5 line floating around -175/200 which would be too rich for me to play it on its own. I do see 3 goals in this one though so do what you will. Typically on Napoli/Verona this would scream OVER. However, there are a few variables here, Verona lost a really good coach, and has a new skipper at the helm. Sometimes it can take a bit for teams to adjust to a new System. Also, Verona is missing some key strikers. On the flip side, Napoli lost 3 key players from their squad ; Kouliabily, Mertens, Insigne. I don't know what to expect from them, so will watch from the sidelines. I hear Napoli is going to sign Verona's Simeone which would be very very nice with him up top with Osihmen, oh my.

Good luck guys I see a very juicy round of games upcoming for this Match week 3, there will be plenty of opportunities.

 

[Crookity]

Hey Turdo, Glad that you were able to find some winners. This past week was successful having taken down 5 of 7 on the posted plays. My intention is to give a lot more winners than losers, so hopefully you can keep finding some success over here lol.


Today guys I have no posted plays. For what it is worth I need this Juve/Sass game O2.5 to close a ticket from 2 weeks out, so I will just ride that and hope for goals. I see the 2.5 line floating around -175/200 which would be too rich for me to play it on its own. I do see 3 goals in this one though so do what you will. Typically on Napoli/Verona this would scream OVER. However, there are a few variables here, Verona lost a really good coach, and has a new skipper at the helm. Sometimes it can take a bit for teams to adjust to a new System. Also, Verona is missing some key strikers. On the flip side, Napoli lost 3 key players from their squad ; Kouliabily, Mertens, Insigne. I don't know what to expect from them, so will watch from the sidelines. I hear Napoli is going to sign Verona's Simeone which would be very very nice with him up top with Osihmen, oh my.

Good luck guys I see a very juicy round of games upcoming for this Match week 3, there will be plenty of opportunities.

Buyer beware for any of you guys playing the Juve game today, the Juve lineup is littered with guys who are OUT; proceed with caution.

 

[TurdofDoom]

Buyer beware for any of you guys playing the Juve game today, the Juve lineup is littered with guys who are OUT; proceed with caution.

$$$$$$