I know but you gotta admit it's just an absolute gutted feeling when the Ls pile up in a short period. The season is such a grind , just trying to be smart with the money management until I run hot again. Appreciate the words sir, trying to dig in . I see lots of opportunities especially with Champs League on deck.
LETS GO OVER - NEVER UNDER - 2022/2023
- Thread starter Crookity
- Start date
I know but you gotta admit it's just an absolute gutted feeling when the Ls pile up in a short period. The season is such a grind , just trying to be smart with the money management until I run hot again. Appreciate the words sir, trying to dig in . I see lots of opportunities especially with Champs League on deck.
My fault bro. Switching books and haven’t followed. I should be up and running in a few days. Your 6-2 when I follow. Lucks about to change.
Damn that Tott game missed by a whisker what can you do, wouldn't play it any other way. It has been a tough start to the year, Over bettors are getting roasted. Look at Serie A , I generally feast in Serie A and only 3 of the last 12 have had 3 goals !! All of this will balance itself out in the end.
EPL
LEICESTER/MANU OVER 2.5 -138
You never know what you will get with Man United , so I will hold my nose here. Leicester has given up the 2nd most goals to start the EPL season, they have conceded 2 goals in all 4 games that they played. I don't see that trend breaking here. Man United has a high xG rating, they should be around the net in this game. I have concerns about Leicester ability to score. If Leicester can pop one I think this should go Over.
LEICESTER/MANU OVER 2.5 -138
You never know what you will get with Man United , so I will hold my nose here. Leicester has given up the 2nd most goals to start the EPL season, they have conceded 2 goals in all 4 games that they played. I don't see that trend breaking here. Man United has a high xG rating, they should be around the net in this game. I have concerns about Leicester ability to score. If Leicester can pop one I think this should go Over.
Waiting to go on one of the classic epic runs to eat into some of these loses. Proceed at your own risk, I have been pretty crappy this first month. The only thing keeping me afloat right now is some 2 gamers I have been playing, but for the most part have not been posting. If the 2.5 line is -175-250 and the o/u on the 3 is beyond -130 I like to pair them up. This has for the most part worked well for me.
Here it goes for this weekend.
BUNDESLIGA
DORTUMUND/HOFFENHEIM O2.5+ UNION/BAYERN O2.5 = +110
LEVERKUSEN/FREIGBURG + O2.5 + FRANKFURT/LEIPZIG O2.5 = +125
LEVEKUSEN/FREIGBURG OVER 3 -110
* I like Frankfurt/Leipzig and if the first leg of the parlay fails I will play that on its own.
EPL
BRENTFORD/LEEDS OVER 2.5 -138
MAN CITY/ASTON VILLA O2.5 + BENFICA/HAIFA O2.5 (CHAMPIONS LEAGUE TUESDAY) +125
haven't done Italy yet but I like that Bundesliga card. There are some others I will look to add as the weekend progresses.
Here it goes for this weekend.
BUNDESLIGA
DORTUMUND/HOFFENHEIM O2.5+ UNION/BAYERN O2.5 = +110
LEVERKUSEN/FREIGBURG + O2.5 + FRANKFURT/LEIPZIG O2.5 = +125
LEVEKUSEN/FREIGBURG OVER 3 -110
* I like Frankfurt/Leipzig and if the first leg of the parlay fails I will play that on its own.
EPL
BRENTFORD/LEEDS OVER 2.5 -138
MAN CITY/ASTON VILLA O2.5 + BENFICA/HAIFA O2.5 (CHAMPIONS LEAGUE TUESDAY) +125
haven't done Italy yet but I like that Bundesliga card. There are some others I will look to add as the weekend progresses.
Ths saga continues...
FREIGBURG/LEVERKUSEN O2.5+ UNION/BAYERN OVER +130
LAZIO/NAPOLO O2.5 -138
please betting gods bless this saturday for me :mj09:
Well weekend set has been positive. I had to get creative but we are making money again. Narrowly missed a real big day as Bayern and City matches narrowly went under. I really like Benfica/Haifa over in UCL and it would of been nice to have a + money parlay going into Tuesday, but I like having the celtic/madrid +169 sitting there for mid week.
A few thoughts from what I saw i) Ivan Toney and Brentford at home are a joy to watch. Tony's free kick was superb and his penalty taking is world class. Its only a matter of time until he gets snatched from a big club. Brentford is a mid table club that is punching above their weight and playing some beautiful ball. They are a team to pay attention to as far as totals are concerned because they can score in bunches, but leak goals at the back. ii) there is this Georgian kid on Napoli who is a super elite young talent that is flying under the radar - Khivicha Kvaratskhelia. This kid is torching it to start the year and hit a wonderful goal for the brace needed to cash that over. If you havent heard the name yet you will. He is a really fun player to watch as well. Iii) anyone paying attention to Celtic FC, hollllly shit. I know they play Scottish Premier League but they have popped 2 goals or more in 14 straight , they have scored 4 or more in 4 of the last 5 and just desposed of their arch rival Rangers with ease. Looking at their goal scoring lately is astonishing, dont care if its in a lower league. This team is a tough out at home fkr anyone. They have a very intriguing matchup at home vs Madrid this week. It is a big step up in class but nobody in Europe is scoring like these guys at the moment.
EPL
MAN UNITED/ARSENAL O2.5 -125
I will put up some Champions League later.
A few thoughts from what I saw i) Ivan Toney and Brentford at home are a joy to watch. Tony's free kick was superb and his penalty taking is world class. Its only a matter of time until he gets snatched from a big club. Brentford is a mid table club that is punching above their weight and playing some beautiful ball. They are a team to pay attention to as far as totals are concerned because they can score in bunches, but leak goals at the back. ii) there is this Georgian kid on Napoli who is a super elite young talent that is flying under the radar - Khivicha Kvaratskhelia. This kid is torching it to start the year and hit a wonderful goal for the brace needed to cash that over. If you havent heard the name yet you will. He is a really fun player to watch as well. Iii) anyone paying attention to Celtic FC, hollllly shit. I know they play Scottish Premier League but they have popped 2 goals or more in 14 straight , they have scored 4 or more in 4 of the last 5 and just desposed of their arch rival Rangers with ease. Looking at their goal scoring lately is astonishing, dont care if its in a lower league. This team is a tough out at home fkr anyone. They have a very intriguing matchup at home vs Madrid this week. It is a big step up in class but nobody in Europe is scoring like these guys at the moment.
EPL
MAN UNITED/ARSENAL O2.5 -125
I will put up some Champions League later.
Last edited:
Trying to build off the momentum of this weekend. I love Champions League, here are a few for you guys.
CELTIC/MADRID OVER - need this one to close out the parlay previously posted a healthy +169 payout. I already mentioned above the run that Celtic is on. They come into this game off a high, beating Rangers 4-0 at home. Celtic FC has scored 17 goals in their last 3 times out, as noted 14 times in a row scoring 2 or more. Their last 14 games are packed with unbelievable scoring tallies. Attacking, and finding the net is in their DNA. Celtic has an undeniable home advantage , Celtic Park is an intimidating place for opposition, their crowd will be PUMPED. There was a risk that Japanese Ace Kyogo was going to miss the match, but I read that he is in which is good news. Madrid comes to town as the reigning Champions, and are in top notch form as well. RM has started 4-0 in La Liga, and they have scored 2 or more goals in each outing. I think Madrid is a big step up in class for Celtic, but they are playing with such confidence, and in front of a rowdy home crowd I think the Bhoys will give the team from Spain all they can handle. The atmosphere should be wild in that Stadium. I can’t help but think Celtic is getting on the board at home, and Madrid with their goal scoring form, and championship pedigree should be around the net in this one.
BENFICA/HAIFA OVER 3 – 138 – I have had my eye on Benfica for a few weeks now. They are playing at a very high level, and scoring goals with ease. They are a very tough out at home. Maccabi Haifa is a good story, and they will play hard, but this is a major step up for them. I saw Haifa in their matches against Belgrade and they have goal scoring abilities. The Israeli Domestic league is well below that of Portugal, so what I have to go off is their qualification run. Haifa was able to put up goals against Olympiakos and Belgrade including 2 on the road in Serbia which is no small feat. I don’t expect them to be around the net in this contest, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they got lucky with one. In this type of matchup I am relying on Benfica to do the heavy lifting. Benfica have scored 2 goals or more in 15 of their last 16 games. In qualification, they disposed of Kiev, Midtiylland with ease, especially at home where they put up 4 goals, and 3 goals respectively. Haifa has been giving up goals with regularity , and I am looking for Benfica to try and pump them at home knowing the importance of taking care of business with Juventus and PSG lurking in the group. I see Benfica scoring 3-4 here with Haifa possibly adding one of their own.
CHELSEA/ZAGREB OVER 2.5 – 138 – Zagreb is another team that very tough at home. Playing in that Stadium is no joke. Here is a first hand story, my father in law was just in Zagreb on business, and him and the guys were trying to get tickets to a game. Everyone was telling them they are absolutely nuts, it can be very dangerous for a foreigner to get caught out of place in that park. The cops were shooting off live rounds a month ago when things with the Ultra’s got out of hand lol , have to love European Football, nothing like it on the planet! Anyhow, expect the home crowd to really give the local team a lift. Zagreb is in good goal scoring form, they have found the net 2 or more times in 4 of their last 5 games, they have scored 4 goals in 6 of their last 10. They have also given up a goal in each of those last 10 contests. Chelsea comes to town and should be able to exploit that Zagreb back line. I think the home team can hold their own here, and I expect them to be around the net. Chelsea has hardly been at their best defensively to start the year. They have given up goals in their last 5 in the EPL, and they have been breached for multiple goals on a few occasions already. Zagreb at home is hardly a push over, they will give Chelsea a good fight. I see this one shaping up to be entertaining with some goals in the mix.
LEVERKUSEN/CLUB BRUGGE – OVER 3 – 115
FRANKFURT/SPORTING OVER 2.5 -138
There are a few others I am breaking down, if I play them I will post!
CELTIC/MADRID OVER - need this one to close out the parlay previously posted a healthy +169 payout. I already mentioned above the run that Celtic is on. They come into this game off a high, beating Rangers 4-0 at home. Celtic FC has scored 17 goals in their last 3 times out, as noted 14 times in a row scoring 2 or more. Their last 14 games are packed with unbelievable scoring tallies. Attacking, and finding the net is in their DNA. Celtic has an undeniable home advantage , Celtic Park is an intimidating place for opposition, their crowd will be PUMPED. There was a risk that Japanese Ace Kyogo was going to miss the match, but I read that he is in which is good news. Madrid comes to town as the reigning Champions, and are in top notch form as well. RM has started 4-0 in La Liga, and they have scored 2 or more goals in each outing. I think Madrid is a big step up in class for Celtic, but they are playing with such confidence, and in front of a rowdy home crowd I think the Bhoys will give the team from Spain all they can handle. The atmosphere should be wild in that Stadium. I can’t help but think Celtic is getting on the board at home, and Madrid with their goal scoring form, and championship pedigree should be around the net in this one.
BENFICA/HAIFA OVER 3 – 138 – I have had my eye on Benfica for a few weeks now. They are playing at a very high level, and scoring goals with ease. They are a very tough out at home. Maccabi Haifa is a good story, and they will play hard, but this is a major step up for them. I saw Haifa in their matches against Belgrade and they have goal scoring abilities. The Israeli Domestic league is well below that of Portugal, so what I have to go off is their qualification run. Haifa was able to put up goals against Olympiakos and Belgrade including 2 on the road in Serbia which is no small feat. I don’t expect them to be around the net in this contest, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they got lucky with one. In this type of matchup I am relying on Benfica to do the heavy lifting. Benfica have scored 2 goals or more in 15 of their last 16 games. In qualification, they disposed of Kiev, Midtiylland with ease, especially at home where they put up 4 goals, and 3 goals respectively. Haifa has been giving up goals with regularity , and I am looking for Benfica to try and pump them at home knowing the importance of taking care of business with Juventus and PSG lurking in the group. I see Benfica scoring 3-4 here with Haifa possibly adding one of their own.
CHELSEA/ZAGREB OVER 2.5 – 138 – Zagreb is another team that very tough at home. Playing in that Stadium is no joke. Here is a first hand story, my father in law was just in Zagreb on business, and him and the guys were trying to get tickets to a game. Everyone was telling them they are absolutely nuts, it can be very dangerous for a foreigner to get caught out of place in that park. The cops were shooting off live rounds a month ago when things with the Ultra’s got out of hand lol , have to love European Football, nothing like it on the planet! Anyhow, expect the home crowd to really give the local team a lift. Zagreb is in good goal scoring form, they have found the net 2 or more times in 4 of their last 5 games, they have scored 4 goals in 6 of their last 10. They have also given up a goal in each of those last 10 contests. Chelsea comes to town and should be able to exploit that Zagreb back line. I think the home team can hold their own here, and I expect them to be around the net. Chelsea has hardly been at their best defensively to start the year. They have given up goals in their last 5 in the EPL, and they have been breached for multiple goals on a few occasions already. Zagreb at home is hardly a push over, they will give Chelsea a good fight. I see this one shaping up to be entertaining with some goals in the mix.
LEVERKUSEN/CLUB BRUGGE – OVER 3 – 115
FRANKFURT/SPORTING OVER 2.5 -138
There are a few others I am breaking down, if I play them I will post!
Last edited:
Well that UCL Match Day 1 did not go as planned. Winning that parlay with Celtic Over at +169 definitely helped the cause, but in the end 2 winners and 3 losers was not what I had in mind. I am still treading water for the most part over the last week or so. It feels like forever since I have run off a nice stretch.
EUROPA
not going crazy here with Europa. Lineups will be critical , and hard to gauge motivations in this tourny at times.
ARSENAL/ZURICH OVER + PSV/BODO OVER = +115
The lines have moved a bit on this its probably around even money now, but I see 3 goals in both of these contests if both Arsenal and PSV are motivated.
EUROPA
not going crazy here with Europa. Lineups will be critical , and hard to gauge motivations in this tourny at times.
ARSENAL/ZURICH OVER + PSV/BODO OVER = +115
The lines have moved a bit on this its probably around even money now, but I see 3 goals in both of these contests if both Arsenal and PSV are motivated.
BUNDESLIGA
FREIBURG/GLADBACH OVER 3 +105
Freiburg comes into this game tied for 1[SUP]st[/SUP], and a result will get them to the top of the Bundesliga table. They played a Europa game a few days ago, but that was at home at least with no travel required. There is no way they overlook this game given where they are in the standings. Freigburg is averaging 2 goals per contest, which puts them in a tie for 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] best in the Bundesliga. They are charting very high on xG , second overall in the entire league next to Bayern Munich. Freiburg is also charting 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in the league in shots on target, and 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in the league in shots overall. This team is around the net, there is no denying that. They are in good form, having scored 5 goals in their last 2 times out. Now they host Gladbach who is no pushover in the Offensive side of things. Gladbach are good for about 1.5 goals per game , they are 6[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league in shots on target. I think they will get chances in this one, and expect them to get on the board. As far as defense is concerned I think Gladbach can be exploited. The #”s show them only giving up an average of a goal per game, but they are dead last in the entire Bundesliga in Expected Goals Against on the Road. They are getting some ridiculous goaltending with the numbers slanted like that. The xGA away is nearly 3.0 so they are giving up a fair share of high quality scoring chances when they travel. Their xGA #'s are pretty shitty overall, but they definitely play leaky d on the road. They have a few defenders down injured, and lost their regular center back to suspension. The recent history between these clubs has plenty of high scoring affairs, the last 4 between them has gone over with some very high scoring results mixed in. I am looking for the trend to continue. The line has moved to the under all week, I don’t see it that way at all. I think there are at least 3 goals in this one. I have this to close a parlay ticket at 2.5 and have it on its own at 3 as well.
FREIBURG/GLADBACH OVER 3 +105
Freiburg comes into this game tied for 1[SUP]st[/SUP], and a result will get them to the top of the Bundesliga table. They played a Europa game a few days ago, but that was at home at least with no travel required. There is no way they overlook this game given where they are in the standings. Freigburg is averaging 2 goals per contest, which puts them in a tie for 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] best in the Bundesliga. They are charting very high on xG , second overall in the entire league next to Bayern Munich. Freiburg is also charting 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in the league in shots on target, and 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in the league in shots overall. This team is around the net, there is no denying that. They are in good form, having scored 5 goals in their last 2 times out. Now they host Gladbach who is no pushover in the Offensive side of things. Gladbach are good for about 1.5 goals per game , they are 6[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league in shots on target. I think they will get chances in this one, and expect them to get on the board. As far as defense is concerned I think Gladbach can be exploited. The #”s show them only giving up an average of a goal per game, but they are dead last in the entire Bundesliga in Expected Goals Against on the Road. They are getting some ridiculous goaltending with the numbers slanted like that. The xGA away is nearly 3.0 so they are giving up a fair share of high quality scoring chances when they travel. Their xGA #'s are pretty shitty overall, but they definitely play leaky d on the road. They have a few defenders down injured, and lost their regular center back to suspension. The recent history between these clubs has plenty of high scoring affairs, the last 4 between them has gone over with some very high scoring results mixed in. I am looking for the trend to continue. The line has moved to the under all week, I don’t see it that way at all. I think there are at least 3 goals in this one. I have this to close a parlay ticket at 2.5 and have it on its own at 3 as well.
Last edited:
