LETS GO OVER - NEVER UNDER - 2022/2023
- Thread starter Crookity
- Start date
I am coming back in refreshed off the International Break. The first month was tough on me. When your wife tells you all she hears around the house is "HOW DID HE NOT SCORE!!!" and the famous " OH MY GOD HE HIT THE POST!!!!" LOL you know things are not falling your way . Anyhow, shit happens , and its time to get rolling again. I need to go on one of those classic lengthy runs and get this cash back. I really like this Champions League Match week that is upcoming. Anecdotally I generally do well off an International Break, as there are 2 full weeks to evaluate things. I am super pressed for time right now, I will lay these out there for now. I have some compelling reasons to play these games I will edit the thread later when I have time.
EPL
ARSENAL/SPURS OVER 2.5 - 138 - what a match to start a Saturday morning, The North London Derby :SIB
ITALIA
INTER/ROMA OVER 2.5 -125 - my data says there will be chances in this one
LAZIO/SPEZIA OVER 2.5/3 -125 - I started with this, and will finish off the stake with either a play on the 3 or 2.5 depending where the line prices things out
GERMANY
BREMEN/GLADBACH OVER - this one is not yet in but very compelling reasons to think we see chances here
I should add that the gut tells me we can see some goals in that Newcastle/Fulham game, this one has stared me in the face for 2 weeks. Newcastle is inconsistent , but in this match up I think we could see a shootout. I just want to see what kind of price this will offer as we move into the evening, and tomorrow morning.
EPL
ARSENAL/SPURS OVER 2.5 - 138 - what a match to start a Saturday morning, The North London Derby :SIB
ITALIA
INTER/ROMA OVER 2.5 -125 - my data says there will be chances in this one
LAZIO/SPEZIA OVER 2.5/3 -125 - I started with this, and will finish off the stake with either a play on the 3 or 2.5 depending where the line prices things out
GERMANY
BREMEN/GLADBACH OVER - this one is not yet in but very compelling reasons to think we see chances here
I should add that the gut tells me we can see some goals in that Newcastle/Fulham game, this one has stared me in the face for 2 weeks. Newcastle is inconsistent , but in this match up I think we could see a shootout. I just want to see what kind of price this will offer as we move into the evening, and tomorrow morning.
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whats up brother I just saw this, puffing too much Blue Dream this morning haha , Yes my friend I think the net is going to bulge tomorrow in London:box2:
ARSENAL/TOTTENHAM OVER 2.5 -138 – North London Derby, huge rivalry, two fan bases that despise each other. This one should be fun. Both teams are finding the net with regularity. We have 5 goals combined per game between them, Tottenham at 2nd in EPL at 2.57 per match and Arsenal at #4 at 2.43 per match. As far as shots, shots on target, goals, xG etc. these teams are top 5 in the league. The price at -138 is a good deal if you ask me. I have no other way to play this game but to go over. These two have gone over 4 of the last 6 match ups, lots of fire power on the pitch.
INTER/ROMA OVER 2.5 - 125 – Inter comes into this one averaging just under 2 goal per game. Roma has been underwhelming to me, but they are still good for 1 per contest. Roma/Inter are both top 5 in xG, and are tied for 1[SUP]st[/SUP] in Serie A in shots on target. Inter although they have stumbled a bit are still monsters ranking 1[SUP]st[/SUP] in shots, 1[SUP]st[/SUP] in shots on target , 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in passes, 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in crosses. There have been high scoring affairs in 5 of the last 6 contests between these two. I think there will be chances for both teams in this one. Lots of talent on the pitch , at the end of the day I think they get it done. At -125 I think this is a good buy.
BREMEN GLADBACH OVER 3 -115– This is a match up primed for goals. The #’s show this as an over, as it aligns the perfect storm ; 2 teams that chart high on the offensive analytics, and bottom tier on the defensive side of the ball. Bremen comes in ranking 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in the Bundesliga in goals at 1.86 per game, with Gladbach not far behind at 1.43 per contest. Its no surprise they are both in the top 10 in xG, and top 5 in shots on target (Bremen #4 vs Gladbach #3). What really gets my attention is the defensive ineptitude as these teams. Gladbach has been getting stellar goaltending that I can’t see sustaining itself. They concede on paper less than 1 goal per game, but they are near dead bottom in major defensive statistics. In terms of overall xGA Gladbach is 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] worst in the league, and Bremen is 5[SUP]th[/SUP] worst. No team in the entire Bundesliga is giving up more high quality scoring chances on their travels than Gladbach, they have the worst xGA on the road at 2.62 per game, Bremen is 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] worst at home in giving up quality chances. Both teams can score , Gladbach can go off at any time, and Bremen is a scrappy club. Neither can be trusted on the back end, I will take my chances we see at least 3 here.
FULHAM/NEWCASTLE OVER 2.5 -110 - I was hoping to get this closer to even on the Asian line but I dont think it will get there. Fulham has been finding the net. They have scored 7 goals in their last 3 home games all multiple goal efforts. Fulham charts top 10 overall in goals scored, Newcastle surprisingly is top 5 in xG. Fulham does not clean sheet anyone they give up goals every game, have had conceded 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 in all competition. Newcastle has some nice talent up top , they can be dangerous. This can go 1-0 or 2-2 my gut tells me there will be plenty of chances.
will give my thoughts on more soon including Lazio/Spezia Over.
INTER/ROMA OVER 2.5 - 125 – Inter comes into this one averaging just under 2 goal per game. Roma has been underwhelming to me, but they are still good for 1 per contest. Roma/Inter are both top 5 in xG, and are tied for 1[SUP]st[/SUP] in Serie A in shots on target. Inter although they have stumbled a bit are still monsters ranking 1[SUP]st[/SUP] in shots, 1[SUP]st[/SUP] in shots on target , 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in passes, 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in crosses. There have been high scoring affairs in 5 of the last 6 contests between these two. I think there will be chances for both teams in this one. Lots of talent on the pitch , at the end of the day I think they get it done. At -125 I think this is a good buy.
BREMEN GLADBACH OVER 3 -115– This is a match up primed for goals. The #’s show this as an over, as it aligns the perfect storm ; 2 teams that chart high on the offensive analytics, and bottom tier on the defensive side of the ball. Bremen comes in ranking 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in the Bundesliga in goals at 1.86 per game, with Gladbach not far behind at 1.43 per contest. Its no surprise they are both in the top 10 in xG, and top 5 in shots on target (Bremen #4 vs Gladbach #3). What really gets my attention is the defensive ineptitude as these teams. Gladbach has been getting stellar goaltending that I can’t see sustaining itself. They concede on paper less than 1 goal per game, but they are near dead bottom in major defensive statistics. In terms of overall xGA Gladbach is 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] worst in the league, and Bremen is 5[SUP]th[/SUP] worst. No team in the entire Bundesliga is giving up more high quality scoring chances on their travels than Gladbach, they have the worst xGA on the road at 2.62 per game, Bremen is 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] worst at home in giving up quality chances. Both teams can score , Gladbach can go off at any time, and Bremen is a scrappy club. Neither can be trusted on the back end, I will take my chances we see at least 3 here.
FULHAM/NEWCASTLE OVER 2.5 -110 - I was hoping to get this closer to even on the Asian line but I dont think it will get there. Fulham has been finding the net. They have scored 7 goals in their last 3 home games all multiple goal efforts. Fulham charts top 10 overall in goals scored, Newcastle surprisingly is top 5 in xG. Fulham does not clean sheet anyone they give up goals every game, have had conceded 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 in all competition. Newcastle has some nice talent up top , they can be dangerous. This can go 1-0 or 2-2 my gut tells me there will be plenty of chances.
will give my thoughts on more soon including Lazio/Spezia Over.
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nevermind , Newcastle did the heavy lifting! 2 down 2 to go for today's slate.:0074
Feeling much better about things , but let's see how the day progresses.
Looks like the Mafia knows something I don't as I see Inter/Roma at O2.5 - 105 lol :0003
Lineups look good here, both teams playing 3 at the back, let's see some goals to move this along.
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Ahhhh 4 up 4 down, long time coming! All I have to say is let's go Lazio, pedal to the metal tomorrow morning for the sweep. I parlayed all 5 of these together 
opcorn2 and could use a classic Lazio home beatdown at 6:30 am est to start my Sunday right. Overall I am very satisfied today as I tied that Gladbach/Bremen game with a bunch of midweek UCL, so I set the table nicely for Tuesday/Wednesday. It isn't everyday the oddsmakers trip up, and make a mistake, but that Inter/Roma line closing at nearly +100 was crazy. There could of easily been 4 -5 goals in that one.
opcorn2 and could use a classic Lazio home beatdown at 6:30 am est to start my Sunday right. Overall I am very satisfied today as I tied that Gladbach/Bremen game with a bunch of midweek UCL, so I set the table nicely for Tuesday/Wednesday. It isn't everyday the oddsmakers trip up, and make a mistake, but that Inter/Roma line closing at nearly +100 was crazy. There could of easily been 4 -5 goals in that one.Ahhhh 4 up 4 down, long time coming! All I have to say is let's go Lazio, pedal to the metal tomorrow morning for the sweep. I parlayed all 5 of these together
Beatdown has been secured :bigun::0071
There are others I am intrigued by today, but gonna call it a week, and put up UCL next . I feel locked in and dont want to start pressing. Cant let greed get the best of you when all cylinders are firing. Good luck gents back soon.
Dang it. I’ve been full blast on NFL and college football. I missed all these including the one I mentioned. Glad you’re back in good form Crookity.
Thanks for the words guys let's keep it going. I would love to see the totals data for weekends back from a 2 week International Break. Like I mentioned last week, I generally have positive results and this past weekend was no different. I think the historical data would show that teams have good offensive showings off the break. Finally, for the first time in weeks the totals market shifted and there were tons of Over results littering the scoreboard. This came after weeks of Unders ruling the slate. I feel we see this trend continue, with many high scoring Champions League affairs.
I set the table nicely here, as I have some up ended parlays with a few of these games below.
UCL
NAPOLI/AJAX OVER 2.5/3 - 125
I really only need this over 2.5 to close some tickets, and I snagged the in-between line/Asian line on the weekend. Right now you can get the Over 3 around -110 which I would still play, I see at least 3 goals in this contest. This one has slapped me in the face since the lines dropped, and I think it will go up from here. Napoli is a destroying everything in their path, they are very impressive. In the last few weeks these guys obliterated Liverpool putting up 4 , and they went to Glasgow in a tough park and popped 3 on the Rangers. In the last month they also put 2 past a good defensive ACM outfit for a win, and they had a multiple goal game against Lazio who is right at the top of the Serie A standings. Napoli is a deep squad, with a ton of high quality, lethal skill up top. They are in some of the best form of any European Club, and they will be looking for another 3 points on their travels to Amsterdam. Napoli was able to cruise to a win on the weekend putting up 3 against Torino early, they will feel good coming into tomorrow's game. I can't say I have seen a ton of Ajax this year. They look to have been struggling somewhat recently without a win in their last 3 times out. They have conceded a goal in their last 3, so I think Napoli will get theirs. I think Ajax in front of the home crowd should have their opportunities. Overall I think we see chances , and the net pops for 3 or more.
INTER/BARCA OVER 2.5/3 - 125
Again, I will take the Asian line at this price, but I wouldn't be opposed to playing this at 3. Inter is showing some holes on the back line. They have given up 5 goals in their last 2 matches, and the pressure is building as word out of camp is that Inghazi is on the block and might be canned soon. I watched the Inter/Roma game, and going forward is not an issue for Inter Milan. They created a ton of chances, same as the Udinese game a few weeks back. Inter had VAR rob them of a goal, and they hit the woodwork a few times, otherwise they would have scored a few more on the weekend. I think they have been a bit unlucky on the offensive side. Barca will definitely fancy their chances going forward, and should find the net here as Inter has shown vulnerability on the defensive side. This team features 2 squads with a ton of offensive firepower. The 2.5 line is at -163 I would think that should be -175 or -200. I will stick with the line above, and may add depending on what the lines do overnight.
WEDNESDAY
SALZBURG/ZAGREB OVER 2.5 -125 - 2 teams that can find the net, and both will fancy their chances of picking up all 3 points.
RBL/CELTIC OVER 2.5 - 138 - I snagged this one weeks back, the current line is -150, I wouldn't be opposed to playing this at 3 +110. Celtic needs to get a win here, they can score. RBL has been a mixed bag of tricks this year. They have had some dreadful defensive performances conceding, having given up 2 goals or more 4 times in September, including three games of giving up 3 or more. They are a streaky club, with some firepower up top that can go off for multiple goals at any time. They wasted away bottom feeders Bochum on Saturday cruising to a 4 goal win. They are a different team at home in front of their home crowd. When you look at the numbers Leipzig is actually the most prolific home scoring team right now in the Bundesliga , they score an average of 2.75 goals per game at home, and a dreary 0.50 goals per game on the road. My money is on Leipzig bringing the heat mid week with their firepower up top. To me this has the making of a high scoring affair. I don't think RBL can be trusted to have shored up their defensive ineptitude, and Celtic should get some opportunities. I am looking for a 3-1 Leipzig home win here.
PSG/BENFICA OVER - I can write this one up later , its another game where I just need over 2.5 to cash a ticket. I also have this potentially as the last game of a 6 game ticket that is half way home. I want to see how Tuesday plays out first, before going ahead and locking in an individual play here. I do see plenty of goals in this match up.
Back soon , let's keep it moving.
I set the table nicely here, as I have some up ended parlays with a few of these games below.
UCL
NAPOLI/AJAX OVER 2.5/3 - 125
I really only need this over 2.5 to close some tickets, and I snagged the in-between line/Asian line on the weekend. Right now you can get the Over 3 around -110 which I would still play, I see at least 3 goals in this contest. This one has slapped me in the face since the lines dropped, and I think it will go up from here. Napoli is a destroying everything in their path, they are very impressive. In the last few weeks these guys obliterated Liverpool putting up 4 , and they went to Glasgow in a tough park and popped 3 on the Rangers. In the last month they also put 2 past a good defensive ACM outfit for a win, and they had a multiple goal game against Lazio who is right at the top of the Serie A standings. Napoli is a deep squad, with a ton of high quality, lethal skill up top. They are in some of the best form of any European Club, and they will be looking for another 3 points on their travels to Amsterdam. Napoli was able to cruise to a win on the weekend putting up 3 against Torino early, they will feel good coming into tomorrow's game. I can't say I have seen a ton of Ajax this year. They look to have been struggling somewhat recently without a win in their last 3 times out. They have conceded a goal in their last 3, so I think Napoli will get theirs. I think Ajax in front of the home crowd should have their opportunities. Overall I think we see chances , and the net pops for 3 or more.
INTER/BARCA OVER 2.5/3 - 125
Again, I will take the Asian line at this price, but I wouldn't be opposed to playing this at 3. Inter is showing some holes on the back line. They have given up 5 goals in their last 2 matches, and the pressure is building as word out of camp is that Inghazi is on the block and might be canned soon. I watched the Inter/Roma game, and going forward is not an issue for Inter Milan. They created a ton of chances, same as the Udinese game a few weeks back. Inter had VAR rob them of a goal, and they hit the woodwork a few times, otherwise they would have scored a few more on the weekend. I think they have been a bit unlucky on the offensive side. Barca will definitely fancy their chances going forward, and should find the net here as Inter has shown vulnerability on the defensive side. This team features 2 squads with a ton of offensive firepower. The 2.5 line is at -163 I would think that should be -175 or -200. I will stick with the line above, and may add depending on what the lines do overnight.
WEDNESDAY
SALZBURG/ZAGREB OVER 2.5 -125 - 2 teams that can find the net, and both will fancy their chances of picking up all 3 points.
RBL/CELTIC OVER 2.5 - 138 - I snagged this one weeks back, the current line is -150, I wouldn't be opposed to playing this at 3 +110. Celtic needs to get a win here, they can score. RBL has been a mixed bag of tricks this year. They have had some dreadful defensive performances conceding, having given up 2 goals or more 4 times in September, including three games of giving up 3 or more. They are a streaky club, with some firepower up top that can go off for multiple goals at any time. They wasted away bottom feeders Bochum on Saturday cruising to a 4 goal win. They are a different team at home in front of their home crowd. When you look at the numbers Leipzig is actually the most prolific home scoring team right now in the Bundesliga , they score an average of 2.75 goals per game at home, and a dreary 0.50 goals per game on the road. My money is on Leipzig bringing the heat mid week with their firepower up top. To me this has the making of a high scoring affair. I don't think RBL can be trusted to have shored up their defensive ineptitude, and Celtic should get some opportunities. I am looking for a 3-1 Leipzig home win here.
PSG/BENFICA OVER - I can write this one up later , its another game where I just need over 2.5 to cash a ticket. I also have this potentially as the last game of a 6 game ticket that is half way home. I want to see how Tuesday plays out first, before going ahead and locking in an individual play here. I do see plenty of goals in this match up.
Back soon , let's keep it moving.
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my oh my Napoli is something else, what a machine. For any casual fans out there, if you want to invest time into a game to watch, check a Napoli game. These guys plays some stunning ball, absolutely lethal in attack. That one was big as I just need RBL/Celtic and PSG/Benfica over to close another big parlay. As I type this Inter just found one, need a big half at the San Siro to bring it all home.
