LETS GO OVER - NEVER UNDER - 2022/2023
- Thread starter Crookity
- Start date
UCL QUALIFYING
RANGERS/PSV OVER 2.5 - 125
PSV is flying right now they have popped 25 goals in their last 7 games ; 5, 2, 5, 1, 4, 3, 5. I think they find the net here , Rangers at home should eat too. Both of these teams can fill it up, and PSV is a threat to go for multi goals everytime they step on the field. My gut tells me there will chances in this one, I'm a buyer.
RANGERS/PSV OVER 2.5 - 125
PSV is flying right now they have popped 25 goals in their last 7 games ; 5, 2, 5, 1, 4, 3, 5. I think they find the net here , Rangers at home should eat too. Both of these teams can fill it up, and PSV is a threat to go for multi goals everytime they step on the field. My gut tells me there will chances in this one, I'm a buyer.
Alright its time to get back in the saddle, we are moving along quite nicely lately. Here is to hoping our fortunes continue. I will add to this post, but these are my initial plays.
EPL
SOUTHAMPTON/LEICESTER OVER 3 +105
CHELSEA/LEEDS OVER 2.5 - 138
BUNDESLIGA
RBL/UNION OVER 2.5 -110
GLADBACH/HERTHA OVER 2.5 + HOFFENHEIM/LEVERKUSEN OVER 2.5 = +135
SERIE A
ACM/ATALANTA OVER 2.5 -138
- not done with Italy I like a few more over here , and will update.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK :0074
EPL
SOUTHAMPTON/LEICESTER OVER 3 +105
CHELSEA/LEEDS OVER 2.5 - 138
BUNDESLIGA
RBL/UNION OVER 2.5 -110
GLADBACH/HERTHA OVER 2.5 + HOFFENHEIM/LEVERKUSEN OVER 2.5 = +135
SERIE A
ACM/ATALANTA OVER 2.5 -138
- not done with Italy I like a few more over here , and will update.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK :0074
Well we were cruising until Sunday afternoon, and had a piss poor close to the week. This took it from a profitable week, to one where we lost some juice. Fiorentina was a mistake, as they were playing their 3rd game of the week, and they were on the road. FIO is a much better home team, and Empoli is absolute trash their last 23 games they have I believe 2 wins. Empoli showed absolutely nothing in that game. Not sure what I was thinking on that one :s2: Overall after a few weeks in I am feeling pretty good about things. Almost all of the misses to start the season have been by a lone goal. Many of the loses could of very well gone over. Anyhow, new week, new beginnings, I will be back soon with some more thoughts. In another week or two we should have a nice chunk of data to start using more analytics, xG and XGA #s to solidify plays.
Back soon.
Back soon.
Let's make it a winning week. I watched some Champions League qualifiers, and watched Benfica dismantle Kiev in 45 minutes. Benfica is playing at a seriously high level right now, especially at home. They are going to roll into the Big Tourny with serious momentum, and will be formidable opponent indeed.
TOMORROW
UCL QUALIFYING
PSV/RANGERS OVER 2.5 - 143
Not opposed to playing this at 3 as well. PSV has been flying for the last few weeks, they have scored 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 8, and over that stretch their goal scoring tallies is as follows; 5, 2, 5, 1, 4, 3, 5, 2. PSV is an attacking team it is their entire DNA, they are coached by Ruud Von Nistelrooy a prolific goal scorer in his own right during his playing days. They will come out with some serious juice, Eindhoven is a tough ground for opposition. I see no reason why PSV doesn't have another multi goal game. Rangers are now slouch, they can hold their own. This should be an intriguing match up, I see many chances in this match, and a good chance at the OVER.
EPL
SOUTHAMPTON/MAN UNITED OVER 2.5 - 150 , 3 +105
I jumped on this line quickly, most of my bet is on the 2.5, and I am going to use the 3 as well for a smaller portion at + money. What a difference a week makes, MAN UTD shook the monkey off their back with a big win vs Liverpool. They played with grit, and passion, something sorely missing in the first few weeks. I think they come into this game with some momentum, and look to attack Southampton. Despite some early season troubles through the first handful of games ManU is still 6th in the EPL in xG, they are creating chances. On the same token they are giving up plenty in their own end, and that is evident by the fact they have the second worst xGA in the entire EPL. Southampton can score , they have found the net in each of their games, and have a few multi goal games to start the year. I am seeking an open affair here, with both teams contributing with goals at both ends, and plenty of chances. United is a jekyll and hyde type of team, you never know what you are going to get. Given how embarrassed they got the last time on the road, I can't see their coach letting them loose focus. You always have to close your eyes, and plug your nose when you take ManU lol, but I like the match up for them this week.
SERIE A - fun fact of the day 2 of the last 10 Serie A games have gone OVER, it has been an UNDER fest in Italia lately...don't care though. It just means we have goals coming soon, it is inevitable. Below are 2 that I like off the bat.
NAPOLI/FIORENTINA OVER 2.5 - 138 , OVER 3 +105
Again, majority of the wager is on the 2.5, but I will try to maximize with the 3 at + money. Napoli is coming into this game flying, they just dismantled their first 2 opponents, but it will be a big step up when they go to play Fiorentina on the road. Napoli has popped 9 goals through 2 games. They just signed Simeone, and have some serious striking talent up front. Fiorentina is a much stronger home team than road team. I remember last year their goal scoring split was heavily weighed to the home performances. These teams are 1 vs 2 in overall xG, it is a limited sample size for sure but it means both squads are all over the opposition goal with quality chances. FIO threw up a Goose Egg last time out , but that was the 3rd game of the week, and they were on the road. Given this match up, I can't help but think both teams are a threat for a multi goal game, both have more than enough attacking talent to contribute goals, and both squads have it in their DNA to attack. I am playing the OVER .
INTER/LAZIO OVER 3 +105
This line came down from 2.5 - 175, its now at -163, and if for some reason it comes down to -150 or lower I am jumping on the 2.5 For now i am using the 3, I think this line at 2.5 in the -163 to -200 range is a good parlay candidate, do what you will with that. Inter has looked pretty good from what I have seen of them. Lukaku is a monster in Serie A, he creates space, and is all over the opposition end. Lazio hasn't gotten into gear just yet, they did look pretty good in the game I saw vs Bologna at home, on the road they laid an egg. When your betting OVERS you need to know the dominant home teams, and Lazio is just that. They score far more goals at home, than on the road. I think we see a solid performance from them. This is a game that has a ton of superior attacking talent, 2 teams that can contribute, attack minded focus, all adds up to me as a play on the OVER.
I am out of time boys back soon, the above ones are some of the more solid plays I see on the card. I have a handful of others I am looking at, but want to see where the wind blows with the lines.
GOOD LUCK
TOMORROW
UCL QUALIFYING
PSV/RANGERS OVER 2.5 - 143
Not opposed to playing this at 3 as well. PSV has been flying for the last few weeks, they have scored 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 8, and over that stretch their goal scoring tallies is as follows; 5, 2, 5, 1, 4, 3, 5, 2. PSV is an attacking team it is their entire DNA, they are coached by Ruud Von Nistelrooy a prolific goal scorer in his own right during his playing days. They will come out with some serious juice, Eindhoven is a tough ground for opposition. I see no reason why PSV doesn't have another multi goal game. Rangers are now slouch, they can hold their own. This should be an intriguing match up, I see many chances in this match, and a good chance at the OVER.
EPL
SOUTHAMPTON/MAN UNITED OVER 2.5 - 150 , 3 +105
I jumped on this line quickly, most of my bet is on the 2.5, and I am going to use the 3 as well for a smaller portion at + money. What a difference a week makes, MAN UTD shook the monkey off their back with a big win vs Liverpool. They played with grit, and passion, something sorely missing in the first few weeks. I think they come into this game with some momentum, and look to attack Southampton. Despite some early season troubles through the first handful of games ManU is still 6th in the EPL in xG, they are creating chances. On the same token they are giving up plenty in their own end, and that is evident by the fact they have the second worst xGA in the entire EPL. Southampton can score , they have found the net in each of their games, and have a few multi goal games to start the year. I am seeking an open affair here, with both teams contributing with goals at both ends, and plenty of chances. United is a jekyll and hyde type of team, you never know what you are going to get. Given how embarrassed they got the last time on the road, I can't see their coach letting them loose focus. You always have to close your eyes, and plug your nose when you take ManU lol, but I like the match up for them this week.
SERIE A - fun fact of the day 2 of the last 10 Serie A games have gone OVER, it has been an UNDER fest in Italia lately...don't care though. It just means we have goals coming soon, it is inevitable. Below are 2 that I like off the bat.
NAPOLI/FIORENTINA OVER 2.5 - 138 , OVER 3 +105
Again, majority of the wager is on the 2.5, but I will try to maximize with the 3 at + money. Napoli is coming into this game flying, they just dismantled their first 2 opponents, but it will be a big step up when they go to play Fiorentina on the road. Napoli has popped 9 goals through 2 games. They just signed Simeone, and have some serious striking talent up front. Fiorentina is a much stronger home team than road team. I remember last year their goal scoring split was heavily weighed to the home performances. These teams are 1 vs 2 in overall xG, it is a limited sample size for sure but it means both squads are all over the opposition goal with quality chances. FIO threw up a Goose Egg last time out , but that was the 3rd game of the week, and they were on the road. Given this match up, I can't help but think both teams are a threat for a multi goal game, both have more than enough attacking talent to contribute goals, and both squads have it in their DNA to attack. I am playing the OVER .
INTER/LAZIO OVER 3 +105
This line came down from 2.5 - 175, its now at -163, and if for some reason it comes down to -150 or lower I am jumping on the 2.5 For now i am using the 3, I think this line at 2.5 in the -163 to -200 range is a good parlay candidate, do what you will with that. Inter has looked pretty good from what I have seen of them. Lukaku is a monster in Serie A, he creates space, and is all over the opposition end. Lazio hasn't gotten into gear just yet, they did look pretty good in the game I saw vs Bologna at home, on the road they laid an egg. When your betting OVERS you need to know the dominant home teams, and Lazio is just that. They score far more goals at home, than on the road. I think we see a solid performance from them. This is a game that has a ton of superior attacking talent, 2 teams that can contribute, attack minded focus, all adds up to me as a play on the OVER.
I am out of time boys back soon, the above ones are some of the more solid plays I see on the card. I have a handful of others I am looking at, but want to see where the wind blows with the lines.
GOOD LUCK
Playing the Inter game early was an error. I will add at 2.5 -138 that line makes no sense to me whatsoever , but what do I know:shrug:
Hasn't been my best work sorry guys. Just trying to tread water until I run hot.
ASTIN VILLA/WEST HAM OVER 2.5 -105
Played this last night. WHU has too many talented players to keep throwing up goose eggs. I think they figure it out really soon. They just signed Pacquetta. I doubt he plays today but if this doesn't go over I've already taken WHU/ToTT over mid week.
I need this one and the Napoli over to salvage the week. Next week's card looks NICE.
ASTIN VILLA/WEST HAM OVER 2.5 -105
Played this last night. WHU has too many talented players to keep throwing up goose eggs. I think they figure it out really soon. They just signed Pacquetta. I doubt he plays today but if this doesn't go over I've already taken WHU/ToTT over mid week.
I need this one and the Napoli over to salvage the week. Next week's card looks NICE.
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We all have tough stretches. I’ve had many. I think In this forum hr quality of posters always turns it around
