LETS GO OVER - NEVER UNDER - 2022/2023
- Thread starter Crookity
- Start date
You followed the right one, it was the best of the bunch and cashed easily. I really like tomorrow's card. For what it is worth the one I need the most is the RBL/Celtic as I have that one on the back end of a duo from the weekend as well as on its own, and this over would leave me with just PSG/Benfica over 2.5 to close a lengthy parlay ticket. If I get to that stage I will consider the hedge to have a relaxing afternoon lol but don't want to get ahead of myself . In all honesty though I really like all 3 of the plays up top to go over the 2.5. Those 2 lunch time games should be fun. There were some really high scoring affairs today, but I thought more of the games would end up going Over. There were 3 Overs and 5 Unders today, I am thinking that flips for tomorrow we will see.
Nailed the Napoli game. Barca game was an aberration that just happens in the soccer world. Bounces just did not go there way. Love the Salzburg and PSG plays tomorrow.
Bason how are you! Let's get those 2 Overs, one of these match days Overs will sweep the board. I have not bothered to look at last years results in comparison, but it seems through the first few weeks of Champs League there have been a lot of low scoring contests. Good luck sir let's bring it home.
Shake it off. Chelsea may score 3-4 by themselves Saturday. Man City same thing. Tottenham BHA may have 6-7 goals. Nets will pop this weekend.
Hey Turdo, I can certainly see some goals in that one, but will give you a peek into my head. I try to look at these games every which way. Chelsea I think is going to go on a run with their new coach who is one of the best in the league. Perhaps the game against ACM this week was them breaking the seal, and finally getting off the mat. Chelsea has talent, they should be scoring a lot more than they have, I think they will start finding the net in abundance. Taking that game over may very well rely on Chelsea scoring all the goals, because the Wolves are averaging 0.50 goals per game which is dead last in the league. It is ideal for me when 2 teams can come to the dance and score, in this case I am not sure if the Wolves can do anything. The compact schedule with all these Champions League games sandwiched between League games doesn't make anything easier, as its easy for a team to look ahead. As for Man City they should score 3 -4 themselves. The problem is their lines at even 3 is usually very juicy, and I never go over 3.5 so I will probably sit that one out. Tottenham is a tough nut to crack, they have score alot more goals at home than on the road. In this case though I think both teams can contribute, there should be chances in this one. We will see if it makes my card.
FRIDAY BUNDESLIGA
BREMEN/HOFFENHEIM OVER
This line is past my threshold to play on its own at 2.5 as I see this currently at -175, down from -200. I think this is a good one to pair up in a 2 gamer. We have the [NODE="2"]4[/NODE]th ranked scoring team in the League with Bremen at 2.25 goals per match vs. Hoffenheim ranked 6th at 1.63 goals per match. Hoffenheim eats at home their splits show they are better in their own park as they find the net 2 times per game, and Bremen is top 5 in road scoring , they still find the twine at 2 goals per game on their travels. I like what I have seen from Bremen they play hard, and uptempto. These guys never give up, they lead the league in goals scored in the final 10 minutes, and they are coming into this one after thrashing Gladbach 5-1 last weekend. They do give up their fair of chances though which is evident by the fact they have the 5th worst XGA on in the league. Hoffenheim should get their chances at home, and I think Bremen can contribute as well. The last 4 meetings between these 2 teas has been 4-0, 1-1, 3-0, 3-2. I think this one should go over. Good candidates for a 2 game partner would be Gladbach/Koln at -163, or bring your juice down on the Der Klassiker with Bayern/Dortmund.
Good luck guys, not as crazy on this card as last week. I am really trying to think this all through with the Champions League matches. This year is unique with the winter World Cup, as the schedule is jam packed, with UCL sandwiched every single week. I think this is effecting results somewhat, tough to tell
Back soon.
FRIDAY BUNDESLIGA
BREMEN/HOFFENHEIM OVER
This line is past my threshold to play on its own at 2.5 as I see this currently at -175, down from -200. I think this is a good one to pair up in a 2 gamer. We have the [NODE="2"]4[/NODE]th ranked scoring team in the League with Bremen at 2.25 goals per match vs. Hoffenheim ranked 6th at 1.63 goals per match. Hoffenheim eats at home their splits show they are better in their own park as they find the net 2 times per game, and Bremen is top 5 in road scoring , they still find the twine at 2 goals per game on their travels. I like what I have seen from Bremen they play hard, and uptempto. These guys never give up, they lead the league in goals scored in the final 10 minutes, and they are coming into this one after thrashing Gladbach 5-1 last weekend. They do give up their fair of chances though which is evident by the fact they have the 5th worst XGA on in the league. Hoffenheim should get their chances at home, and I think Bremen can contribute as well. The last 4 meetings between these 2 teas has been 4-0, 1-1, 3-0, 3-2. I think this one should go over. Good candidates for a 2 game partner would be Gladbach/Koln at -163, or bring your juice down on the Der Klassiker with Bayern/Dortmund.
Good luck guys, not as crazy on this card as last week. I am really trying to think this all through with the Champions League matches. This year is unique with the winter World Cup, as the schedule is jam packed, with UCL sandwiched every single week. I think this is effecting results somewhat, tough to tell
Back soon.
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WORLD CUP
I took some profits from last week , and I locked in 2 futures for the World Cup next month. I put out Italy at 10-1 to win the Euros, let's see if I can peg a World Cup winner.
ARGENTINA +700 - I think this offers good value. Similar to Italy when they were heading into Euros, Argentina right now is on a 35 game unbeaten streak, with 2 more tune ups to go before the Big Dance. They come in as reigning South American Champs, and are playing as an organized, cohesive unit. Messi looks comfortable and happy playing with the International Squad. This team has super elite talent, playing in some of the best form in the world. I expect this line to come down barring any injuries, or last minute stumbles, locking it in now.
BRAZIL +400 - I know the odds are somewhat short, but if these guys are on their game I really don't see who is going to knock them off. I think in 5-6 weeks this line will drop, and after the group stages Brazil will likely be under +300 to win it all, so I am taking this now fully expecting a lengthy run.
I took some profits from last week , and I locked in 2 futures for the World Cup next month. I put out Italy at 10-1 to win the Euros, let's see if I can peg a World Cup winner.
ARGENTINA +700 - I think this offers good value. Similar to Italy when they were heading into Euros, Argentina right now is on a 35 game unbeaten streak, with 2 more tune ups to go before the Big Dance. They come in as reigning South American Champs, and are playing as an organized, cohesive unit. Messi looks comfortable and happy playing with the International Squad. This team has super elite talent, playing in some of the best form in the world. I expect this line to come down barring any injuries, or last minute stumbles, locking it in now.
BRAZIL +400 - I know the odds are somewhat short, but if these guys are on their game I really don't see who is going to knock them off. I think in 5-6 weeks this line will drop, and after the group stages Brazil will likely be under +300 to win it all, so I am taking this now fully expecting a lengthy run.
short on time...
SERIE A
SASSUOLO/INTER OVER 2.5 - 143
This line got beaten down overnight. Sassuolo has really nice offensive metrics , but they are skewed because of the 5-0 drubbing against Salernitana. Sass has beaten some bottom feeders. They have played 3 good offensive teams all year ; Juve, ACM, Udinese. They blanked ACM, but gave up 3 goals to Udinese and Juve. Inter can't look ahead to UCL , they have been dropping points in Serie A, they need a win here. I think they will be focused.
I rate the NEWCASTLE/BRENTFORD higher than this game, but think this Italian contest can have 3 goals in it.
back later.
SERIE A
SASSUOLO/INTER OVER 2.5 - 143
This line got beaten down overnight. Sassuolo has really nice offensive metrics , but they are skewed because of the 5-0 drubbing against Salernitana. Sass has beaten some bottom feeders. They have played 3 good offensive teams all year ; Juve, ACM, Udinese. They blanked ACM, but gave up 3 goals to Udinese and Juve. Inter can't look ahead to UCL , they have been dropping points in Serie A, they need a win here. I think they will be focused.
I rate the NEWCASTLE/BRENTFORD higher than this game, but think this Italian contest can have 3 goals in it.
back later.
Beautiful start to the weekend with yesterdays Bundesliga game, and taking the first 2 this morning. Inter should have scored 3 or 4 , but in the end they got the job done. I will say that I am loving what I see from Newcastle. This team is no joke, they are a very dangerous squad. The #'s showed them top 5 xG and today game you can see why, they are all over the net. They are smashing goals without 2 elite offensive strikers who are injured ; Isac, and Saint-Maxamin.
EPL
BRIGHTON/TOTTENHAM OVER 2.5 - 105
I have no time to dive deep into this one, but this is another one where the line got beaten down. I will be honest, Tottenham at times has been underwhelming, especially on the road in UCL. But, the #'s here scream over. Both teams are top of the charts in scoring Spurs #4 Gulls #5. BHA is averaging 2 goals in their own park, Tottenham numbers drop on the road, but they are still good for 1.5 on their travels. Both teams high on the xG charts, and Tottenham is giving up 1.8 xGA , so the numbers would say Brighton will get their chances. Win or lose I am going to be profitable, I feel comfortable playing this, and like the price.
EPL
BRIGHTON/TOTTENHAM OVER 2.5 - 105
I have no time to dive deep into this one, but this is another one where the line got beaten down. I will be honest, Tottenham at times has been underwhelming, especially on the road in UCL. But, the #'s here scream over. Both teams are top of the charts in scoring Spurs #4 Gulls #5. BHA is averaging 2 goals in their own park, Tottenham numbers drop on the road, but they are still good for 1.5 on their travels. Both teams high on the xG charts, and Tottenham is giving up 1.8 xGA , so the numbers would say Brighton will get their chances. Win or lose I am going to be profitable, I feel comfortable playing this, and like the price.
KOLN/GLADBACH OVER
Short on time, you can say I followed my own advice above lol . Bremen/Hoff was paired up with Bayern/BVB and Cologne/Gladbach. I only need 2.5 so wont play extra but recommend this play. Koln is top of the charts in goals scored under Munich. They have the 2nd best road xG in the league. Gladbach has defensive issues. The splits show they are a bit better at home but still have the 3rd worst xGA in the league. They gave up 5 last time out to Bremen, now face a strong offensive side. The last 4 in this series flew over , looking for more of the same.
SERIE A
UDINESE/ATLANTA OVER 2.5 -110
Udinese is no joke they are a strong offensive side. They were trending up at the end of last year and picked up this year in the same fashion. ATA is actually presenting as the best defensive side in the league, they concede well under a goal a game, and are traditionally a decent defensive club. However, a close look shows that 5 of their 7 games has been against the worst offensive scoring sides in Serie A; Torino, Cremonese, Samp, Fio, Monza. Today they get a step up in offensive class, I smell goals.
Good luck
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Thanks guys let's keep it rolling.
FIORENTINA/LAZIO OVER 2.5 -110
Monday Night Futbol, Italian style. FIO is top of the charts as far as xG is concerned sitting 2nd in the entire Serie A, and 2nd at home sitting around 2.5 xG. Only Napoli is creating more goal scoring chances in their own Park than Fiorentina. They aren't capitalizing on their chances though which is evident by the fact their goals scored totals sit farther down the table. They are still good for over 1.5 at home, and Lazio is coming in with the 3rd best scoring average on the road. Fio goal scoring troubles overall are baked into this line which is why its -110. They are a much better home team, and Lazio is scoring in abundance in Serie A so I will take my chances here.
FIORENTINA/LAZIO OVER 2.5 -110
Monday Night Futbol, Italian style. FIO is top of the charts as far as xG is concerned sitting 2nd in the entire Serie A, and 2nd at home sitting around 2.5 xG. Only Napoli is creating more goal scoring chances in their own Park than Fiorentina. They aren't capitalizing on their chances though which is evident by the fact their goals scored totals sit farther down the table. They are still good for over 1.5 at home, and Lazio is coming in with the 3rd best scoring average on the road. Fio goal scoring troubles overall are baked into this line which is why its -110. They are a much better home team, and Lazio is scoring in abundance in Serie A so I will take my chances here.
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