LETS GO OVER - NEVER UNDER - 2022/2023

[Crookity]

Thanks guys let's keep it rolling.

FIORENTINA/LAZIO OVER 2.5 -110
Monday Night Futbol, Italian style. FIO is top of the charts as far as xG is concerned sitting 2nd in the entire Serie A, and 2nd at home sitting around 2.5 xG. Only Napoli is creating more goal scoring chances in their own Park than Fiorentina. They aren't capitalizing on their chances though which is evident by the fact their goals scored totals sit farther down the table. They are still good for over 1.5 at home, and Lazio is coming in with the 3rd best scoring average on the road. Fio goal scoring troubles overall are baked into this line which is why its -110. They are a much better home team, and Lazio is scoring in abundance in Serie A so I will take my chances here.

Wow Lazio is clinical in attack, Sarri ball is popping right now. They had to do all the heavy lifting tn. Lazio is nice on the eyes, one touch passing, lethal counter attacking and extremely skilled players. Zaggani has my attention this guy is scoring goes with some serious flare. I already have Lazio/Udinese in for next week, that should be a cracking contest. As for Fiorentia, oh my these guys have zero finishing ability. They do everything right but can't pull the trigger as evident by what the #'s were showing.

 

[TurdofDoom]

Wow Lazio is clinical in attack, Sarri ball is popping right now. They had to do all the heavy lifting tn. Lazio is nice on the eyes, one touch passing, lethal counter attacking and extremely skilled players. Zaggani has my attention this guy is scoring goes with some serious flare. I already have Lazio/Udinese in for next week, that should be a cracking contest. As for Fiorentia, oh my these guys have zero finishing ability. They do everything right but can't pull the trigger as evident by what the #'s were showing.

Well done again my man.

 

[Crookity]

Well done again my man.

Locked in right now :0074

 

[jng]

Locked in right now :0074

Lotta time, effort and handicapping skill in your posts and it is much appreciated.
Cashed again!
Thanks, Crookity

 

[Crookity]

Lotta time, effort and handicapping skill in your posts and it is much appreciated.
Cashed again!
Thanks, Crookity

My pleasure :0008

 

[Crookity]

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
The only thing has tripped me up the past 2+ weeks has been a few Champions League games. I got priced out of several of these games, and don't want to get out of line. I am feeling pretty locked in at the moment, and don't want to press. I am playing this for now.


CELTIC/RBL OVER 2.5 + NAPOLI/AJAX OVER 2.5 = +140
The lines got a bit juiced in the past few hours. RBL splits show a huge increase in offensive output at home vs away. But, Celtic needs a win here, and they are a team that likes to go forward, and can do damage in their own Park. There should be room to run here, I think we see plenty of chances in what should be an entertaining affair. Napoli is putting up 3-4 goals per game routinely, I see no reason for that to change.

 

[Crookity]

Wow every single , solitary UCL game went under 2.5 my oh my. You definitely don't see that every match week, it was a good day to limit the plays. As they say "know when to hold them, know when to fold them". I am sticking with what is working , and not playing any Euro competition, and will wait for Domestic Leagues to ramp up again this Friday.

 

[Crookity]

omg what a difference from yesterday, today's action was raining goals! Yesterday was a great day to stay off the Overs, and today was a horrible day to be on the sidelines. Kicking myself for not playing that Napoli/Ajax Over, what can you do! I am going to put out some weekend action soon. There is a lot of domestic action the next 2 weeks, as European Competition takes a break until the end of the month.

 

[Crookity]

This is days away, but I am putting it out now. The lines are starting to move, I think this is a gem of a play.

SERIE A (SUNDAY)
LAZIO/UDINESE OVER 2.5 -138/ OVER 3 +110
If you ask me this line should be higher, at least -150/on the 2.5 and the Over 3 at +110 seems like a mistake to me. This game ticks a lot of boxes. We have Lazio [NODE="2"]2[/NODE] in Serie A with 2.33 goals per game vs Udinese ranked 3rd with an average of 2.11 goals per game. Lazio is the best home scoring team in Serie A tied with ACM averaging just under 2.5 at home, and Udinese compliments this as the 3rd best road scoring team in Serie A, they are finding the net 2+ on their travels. Lazio is lighting up the league right now, they have scored 4 goals the last 3 games, and they have multiple goals efforts in all but one home game this year. I already gave thoughts in this thread on my fondness for Udinese. They were a drastically improved club the 2nd half of last season, and carried the momentum into this season. This team is on an absolute roll, they have taken down Serie A big boys Roma & Inter, and came back to tie Atalanta in the 2nd half last week. Udinese comes into this one feeling good, having scored 2 or more goals in 5 straight games, including 3 games where they scored 3 or more! I can say that both these teams also pass the eye test for me. I have watched plenty of Lazio's recent performances, and they have been playing beautiful futbol, crisp one touch passing, a lethal counter attack, and offensive efficiency. The same goes for Udinese they like to go forward, both these clubs having attacking prowess in their DNA. I looked at this every which way, and tried to understand why the oddsmakers opened this at -138, +110 respectively. The defensive #'s show Lazio as the best defensive team in the league, giving up .50 goals per game. That has to be baked into the line, but I am not convinced that Lazio is suddenly a defensive stalwart. They shutout minnows Cremonese & Spezia, and two poorly functioning offensive clubs in Verona & Fio. Lazio ranks statistically as the best team as far as goals against is concerned , but they are bottom 10 in xGA, this tells me they are giving up their fair share of chances, and have been catching some breaks. This week they get a pitbull of a team that has proven beyond a doubt they can go toe to toe with anyone. The Asian -inbetween line as I call it at 2.5/3 was + money, and is already at -115, I am showing that the 2.5 line is at -150. Personally, I have the 2.5 , and sprinkled in some 3 at +110 right now. I look forward to this match it should be a fun one, if both teams come to play we should get a highly entertaining affair.

 

[Crookity]

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS EPL STYLE

BRENTFORD/BRIGHTON OVER 2.5 +100
I see value in this line considering the matchup pits the 6 vs 7 ranked scoring teams in the EPL. Brentford comes in 5th in the entire league in home scoring behind the EPL powerhouses of Man City, Liverpool, Tottenham, Arsenal. That is very impressive. The home/away splits show that they are clearly a better, and more proficient squad in their own park. They average only 1.2 on the road, but 2.5 at home. On the flip side, Brighton is 3rd best in the League in road scoring, finding the net 2 times per game on their travels. The strong home scoring team vs solid road scoring team is something I always look for. Brentford comes into this one after getting lambasted at Newcastle last week, they will be licking their wounds. For as good as the Bees look going forward at times, they have clear issues at the back. They are 5th worst as far as goals conceded is concerned, and have the 3rd worst home xGA with an xGA just under 2.0. Brighton has proven to be proficient offensively. They have scored 2 goals or more in 4 of their last 5 road games in all competitions, I fully expect them to find the net here. Brighton is not a lock down defensive club either as they have given up a goal their last 4 times out, and have conceded 2 goals or more in 3 of their last 4 games. I looking for Brentford to pick it up this week after last weeks embarrassing loss. I personally like watching Brentford play, their games are generally higher scoring , and entertaining. Ivan Toney is a real Gem up top, one of my favorites, and one of the most reliable penalty takers in the world. Both teams can't keep the opposition out of the net with any consistency, and there should be chances in this one. The recent history suggests this could be a low scoring game, last year they played to a 2-0, and 1-0 result. That is baked into this line, and keeping it down. I will take my chances. It isn't my favorite play of the week, but its a play nonetheless!


Also played this one and will write it up at some point

MAN UNITED/NEWCASTLE OVER 2.5 - 138


Let's have ourselves another nice weekend :0074

 

[Crookity]

tough loss yesterday, a cross bar, and stellar goal keeping kept it at 2, what can you do.


TODAY
BUNDESLIGA
FRANKFURT/LEVERKUSEN OVER 2.5 -138
I just watched this line the last hour or so like a hawk. It can down from -163 to -138 for a short time. I think there is value here. Both of these teams have been having a hard time keeping opposition out of the net. They are bottom 5 in the league in Goals Against. Leverkusen has really been underachieving, and are sitting near the bottom of the table. They are loaded with offensive talent, but haven't caught breaks. I saw the midweek game against UCL, they hit some posts, missed a penalty, got a goal called back by VAR etc. that has been the story of their season so far. I think that will ultimately even itself out. Traditionally going back the last few years this matchup has been loaded with goals. There is risk here as both teams played midweek, but Leverkusen has a new coach, and needs results. Frankfurt is tough to read as they can put up 3+ any game, or pull a no show evident by multiple clean sheets they have put up. Again, nothing crazy here, not my strongest play, but a play nonetheless.

Not crazy about this weekends card, trying to find a few winners, and than hopefully wait for the net to pop tomorrow in Lazio/Udinese.

 

[Crookity]

tough loss yesterday, a cross bar, and stellar goal keeping kept it at 2, what can you do.


TODAY
BUNDESLIGA
FRANKFURT/LEVERKUSEN OVER 2.5 -138
I just watched this line the last hour or so like a hawk. It can down from -163 to -138 for a short time. I think there is value here. Both of these teams have been having a hard time keeping opposition out of the net. They are bottom 5 in the league in Goals Against. Leverkusen has really been underachieving, and are sitting near the bottom of the table. They are loaded with offensive talent, but haven't caught breaks. I saw the midweek game against Porto in UCL, they hit some posts, missed a penalty, got a goal called back by VAR etc. that has been the story of their season so far. I think that will ultimately even itself out. Traditionally going back the last few years this matchup has been loaded with goals. There is risk here as both teams played midweek, but Leverkusen has a new coach, and needs results. Frankfurt is tough to read as they can put up 3+ any game, or pull a no show evident by multiple clean sheets they have put up. Again, nothing crazy here, not my strongest play, but a play nonetheless.

Not crazy about this weekends card, trying to find a few winners, and than hopefully wait for the net to pop tomorrow in Lazio/Udinese.

Money still coming on the under , I dont think it will go to O2.5 -125 but the asian line is starting to come down and thats a precursor to the main line moving.???? The lineups will come out shortly. Depsite all this under action the btts has not budged off -175. That to me is always a good sign.????? I think the over is to cheap at this price , lets see how it goes????:0003. Lineups look good here , I like how Leverkusen lines up , feeling this play more lol

 

[Crookity]

tough loss yesterday, a cross bar, and stellar goal keeping kept it at 2, what can you do.


TODAY
BUNDESLIGA
FRANKFURT/LEVERKUSEN OVER 2.5 -138
I just watched this line the last hour or so like a hawk. It can down from -163 to -138 for a short time. I think there is value here. Both of these teams have been having a hard time keeping opposition out of the net. They are bottom 5 in the league in Goals Against. Leverkusen has really been underachieving, and are sitting near the bottom of the table. They are loaded with offensive talent, but haven't caught breaks. I saw the midweek game against UCL, they hit some posts, missed a penalty, got a goal called back by VAR etc. that has been the story of their season so far. I think that will ultimately even itself out. Traditionally going back the last few years this matchup has been loaded with goals. There is risk here as both teams played midweek, but Leverkusen has a new coach, and needs results. Frankfurt is tough to read as they can put up 3+ any game, or pull a no show evident by multiple clean sheets they have put up. Again, nothing crazy here, not my strongest play, but a play nonetheless.

Not crazy about this weekends card, trying to find a few winners, and than hopefully wait for the net to pop tomorrow in Lazio/Udinese.

That went as planned :0071.

 

[jdg226]

:00hourfirst half had me a little nervous but....:toast:

 

[Crookity]

:00hourfirst half had me a little nervous but....:toast:

Once we got lucky with that late 1st half penalty I figured we would be ok.? Not gonna lie up until that point I thought we were toast lol.? Leverkusen is an absolute mess they looked absolutely putrid.? What an embarrassing showing.

 

[Crookity]

Today we got the previously written up LAZIO/UDINESE OVER 2.5, also this one here.

EPL
MAN UNITED/NEWCASTLE OVER 2.5 -138
Not gonna go to deep here this morning with this one. NCU has scored 9 goals their last 2 times out. They are sneaky good, and did this damage missing some offensive players. They are top 5 in xG and I think they will give United all they can handle. You never know which Man U team will show up, but I think there will be chances here. This has the potential to be an entertaining contest, my bet is the net pops 3 times or more. I think with the players they possess, if MAn U can figure out Ten Hags system they will be a seriously dangerous squad going forward.

Good luck:0074

 

[Crookity]

these plays are in big trouble, big saves, some hit posts early, Immobile who is Lazio best strikers walks off injured. Might be eating shit today ffs :facepalm:

 

[The Situation]

these plays are in big trouble, big saves, some hit posts early, Immobile who is Lazio best strikers walks off injured. Might be eating shit today ffs :facepalm:

No idea what Newcastle dude was doing trying to thread the needle on that 2nd header. The goalie was laying on the ground. Jackass :shrug:

 

[Crookity]

United came out flying, and Newcastle had a chance to break the game open with an early goal, and they missed point blank. I saw the play you reference, pure garbage. The same thing in Lazio game , Udinese hit the cross bar early, and Lazio missed a point blank chance. I still cant believe how bad those 2 games were, everything lined up on my end as 2 solid plays. I had high hopes for today, took it on the chin. Looks like Unders are ruling the day so far in Italy and England.

 

[Crookity]

this turned into a shit week , lost 3/4 of the plays, will do hunker down, and see about next week.