LETS GO OVER - NEVER UNDER - 2022/2023

[Crookity]

That game today was a dud, got these for tomorrow.

EPL
ARSENAL/CHELSEA OVER 2.5 +100

NEWCASTLE/SOUTHAMPTON OVER 2.5 -110

SERIE A
JUVENTUS/INTER OVER 2.5 +100

 

[Crookity]

Wow Newcastle is one dangerous team right now

 

[Crookity]

just as the momentum was coming I got stuck in the mud again. I have held back some winners in the name of being selective with what I post. I will throw more at the wall this week.

TOMORROW
SERIE A
SPEZIA/UDINESE OVER 2.5 -110
Buyer beware, there is always risk relying on Spezia to find the net. I do like their chances at home though. Spezia has scored in each of their home games this season. They have also scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 home matches. I watched their game against Milan and the team looked pretty decent going forward, I think they will find one at home. Udinese is not in good form, they have not been picking up wins as of late and were blanked in their last 2 road games. However, they have still scored the 5th most goals in Serie A this season, and they are 4th best in road xG. I think this is a good spot for Udinese to get right, as Spezia ships just under 2 goals a game, and they are absolute dead last in Serie A in xGA , and they are dead last in home xGA. There should be chances in this one, and I like the price at -110.

WEDNESDAY
will write these up before game time if I have the time.

BUNDESLIGA
FRANKFURT/HOFF - OVER - personally I am using the inbetween/asian line of 2.5/3 -125 here. The line is starting to move. I see the O2.5 at -175 which would be a good parlay candidate in a 2 gamer , take it for what its worth.

RBL/FREIBURG OVER 2.5 -138

SERIE A
FIORENTINA/SALERNITANA OVER 2.5 - 125

 

[jdg226]

Tough sledding. Should have been over in first half but for VAR then we get nothing in second half. Meanwhile in Germany it appears they are playing without goalkeepers :mj07:

 

[Crookity]

Tough sledding. Should have been over in first half but for VAR then we get nothing in second half. Meanwhile in Germany it appears they are playing without goalkeepers :mj07:

Bro I don't even know what to say, the VAR and a few point blank misses and 2 crossbars did it in. I don't know how that didn't go over:facepalm:

 

[jdg226]

Just a bad stretch where we aren't getting any breaks.:shrug:

 

[Crookity]

just as the momentum was coming I got stuck in the mud again. I have held back some winners in the name of being selective with what I post. I will throw more at the wall this week.

TOMORROW
SERIE A
SPEZIA/UDINESE OVER 2.5 -110
Buyer beware, there is always risk relying on Spezia to find the net. I do like their chances at home though. Spezia has scored in each of their home games this season. They have also scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 home matches. I watched their game against Milan and the team looked pretty decent going forward, I think they will find one at home. Udinese is not in good form, they have not been picking up wins as of late and were blanked in their last 2 road games. However, they have still scored the 5th most goals in Serie A this season, and they are 4th best in road xG. I think this is a good spot for Udinese to get right, as Spezia ships just under 2 goals a game, and they are absolute dead last in Serie A in xGA , and they are dead last in home xGA. There should be chances in this one, and I like the price at -110.

WEDNESDAY
will write these up before game time if I have the time.

BUNDESLIGA
FRANKFURT/HOFF - OVER - personally I am using the inbetween/asian line of 2.5/3 -125 here. The line is starting to move. I see the O2.5 at -175 which would be a good parlay candidate in a 2 gamer , take it for what its worth.

RBL/FREIBURG OVER 2.5 -138

SERIE A
FIORENTINA/SALERNITANA OVER 2.5 - 125

I don't know what to make of this week. There are so many games sandwiched between last weekend and this weekend, and a long break for World Cup is on the horizon. I have one more that adds up for today.

BUNDESLIGA
LEVERKUSEN/KOLN OVER 2.5 -125
This line got seriously beaten down it was -163 yesterday. Both teams crack the top 10 in goals scored, and they are 3rd and 4th worst as far as goals conceded so that right there is a nice recipe for goals. Koln has some nice xG #'s at home, and Leverkusen has an XGA on the road of about 2.0 so they are giving up chances. Leverkusen on their travels has conceded 2 goals or more in 6 straight. Lev has been seriously underperforming, but they found the net 5 times on Saturday so I am hoping they can pull their weight, and Koln should be good to eat at home.

 

[Crookity]

That is another multi goal game for Leverkusen. I think they are going to pump Stuttgart at home on Saturday.

 

[jdg226]

Now this is a little more like it. Well done

 

[Crookity]

Now this is a little more like it. Well done

Yessssss fucken right we deserve that, we should of had all 5 this week :toast:

 

[Crookity]

BUNDESLIGA
GLADBACH/BVB OVER - I am going to recommend an Over play, how you guys decide to play it is up to you on this one. I tied the HOFF/FRANKFURT game mid week to a few, including this so match I just need O2.5 to cash a ticket. I paid a steeper price of -225 when I put this in a few days ago, and there is better value now as the .50C drop pegs this at -175. Gladbach is the 3rd best home scoring team averaging over 2 goals per game in their own park. On the road Dortmund doesn't have flashy goal totals, but they rank only 2nd in the Bundesliga to Bayern Munich for XG Away, so they are creating a ton of chances on their travels. Gladbach has problems at the back, they are near the basement in xGA and they have been leaking goals regularly. They have conceded 2 goals or more in 8 straight games. Due to this crammed schedule these teams are playing their 3rd game in less than a week. This could impact the performances on the pitch, but nonetheless I think we see the net pop a few times this afternoon.

 

[Crookity]

WORLD CUP

I took some profits from last week , and I locked in 2 futures for the World Cup next month. I put out Italy at 10-1 to win the Euros, let's see if I can peg a World Cup winner.


ARGENTINA +700 - I think this offers good value. Similar to Italy when they were heading into Euros, Argentina right now is on a 35 game unbeaten streak, with 2 more tune ups to go before the Big Dance. They come in as reigning South American Champs, and are playing as an organized, cohesive unit. Messi looks comfortable and happy playing with the International Squad. This team has super elite talent, playing in some of the best form in the world. I expect this line to come down barring any injuries, or last minute stumbles, locking it in now.


BRAZIL +400 - I know the odds are somewhat short, but if these guys are on their game I really don't see who is going to knock them off. I think in 5-6 weeks this line will drop, and after the group stages Brazil will likely be under +300 to win it all, so I am taking this now fully expecting a lengthy run.

I am glad I got that Argentina in early, I see this down to +550 now and would suspect this will drop significantly as the games get underway. I put in another Group Qualifying bet for World Cup.

TO QUALIFY OUT OF THE GROUP - YES

DENMARK + URUGUAY = +118 :0074

 

[Crookity]

BUNDESLIGA
GLADBACH/BVB OVER - I am going to recommend an Over play, how you guys decide to play it is up to you on this one. I tied the HOFF/FRANKFURT game mid week to a few, including this so match I just need O2.5 to cash a ticket. I paid a steeper price of -225 when I put this in a few days ago, and there is better value now as the .50C drop pegs this at -175. Gladbach is the 3rd best home scoring team averaging over 2 goals per game in their own park. On the road Dortmund doesn't have flashy goal totals, but they rank only 2nd in the Bundesliga to Bayern Munich for XG Away, so they are creating a ton of chances on their travels. Gladbach has problems at the back, they are near the basement in xGA and they have been leaking goals regularly. They have conceded 2 goals or more in 8 straight games. Due to this crammed schedule these teams are playing their 3rd game in less than a week. This could impact the performances on the pitch, but nonetheless I think we see the net pop a few times this afternoon.

AHhh I wish they were all this easy. Is anyone watching this game, some world class play in this one! Please do yourselves a favor and watch the BVB goal the link up of Bellingham to Brandt is as good as you will ever see, oh my.

 

[jng]

I will watch that. Great to see you back in the groove. Never a doubt about that though. Tailed all week. Thanks!

 

[Crookity]

I will watch that. Great to see you back in the groove. Never a doubt about that though. Tailed all week. Thanks!

I appreciate the words jng ! I know I have a few guys out there that follow this thread , and I am always trying to do my best by all of you :0008. I will be back soon to tip another one for tomorrow Leverkusen/Stuttgart.:0074

 

[Crookity]

BUNDESLIGA
LEVERKUSEN/STUTTGART OVER - Again figure how you guys want to play it, the 2.5 juice is -175 right now. This is another one I linked up with the Hoffenheim game mid week so I only need O2.5, but if I wasn't in this position I would play it at 3 -115 which is the current line. Leverkusen is a team that typically does damage at home. They have dealt with some injuries, and have gone through some brutal stretches. However, they are a deep offensive team and as long as they have Frimpong and Diaby running havoc down the flanks they will continually be a threat to score. Leverkusen have scored 7 times the last 2 times out, and I think we see them continue to produce. Leverkusen averages over 2 goals per game at home, and they face a Stuttgart team that is in awful defensive form. Stuttgart has shipped 13 goals in their last 4 games on the road! Stuttgart has conceded 2 or more goals in all but 1 road game this year, they cannot be trusted at the back. A bonus for me in this one is that Stuttgart offensively is generally good for a goal, and their XG #'s are 6th overall, and 5th in road XG. For as good as Leverkusen is going forward they give up their fare share of chances. Their home XGA is very shitty, they 3rd worst in the entire Bundesliga. For this reason I think Stuttgart is going to have their share of the chances , and should be able to pull some weight for the Over. The last 3 times these times played the score line was 4-2, 3-1, 5-2. I am looking for more of the same with Leverkusen coming out ahead in a high scoring game. I like the way this shapes up, and I recommend a play on the Over.

 

[Crookity]

BUNDESLIGA
LEVERKUSEN/STUTTGART OVER - Again figure how you guys want to play it, the 2.5 juice is -175 right now. This is another one I linked up with the Hoffenheim game mid week so I only need O2.5, but if I wasn't in this position I would play it at 3 -115 which is the current line. Leverkusen is a team that typically does damage at home. They have dealt with some injuries, and have gone through some brutal stretches. However, they are a deep offensive team and as long as they have Frimpong and Diaby running havoc down the flanks they will continually be a threat to score. Leverkusen have scored 7 times the last 2 times out, and I think we see them continue to produce. Leverkusen averages over 2 goals per game at home, and they face a Stuttgart team that is in awful defensive form. Stuttgart has shipped 13 goals in their last 4 games on the road! Stuttgart has conceded 2 or more goals in all but 1 road game this year, they cannot be trusted at the back. A bonus for me in this one is that Stuttgart offensively is generally good for a goal, and their XG #'s are 6th overall, and 5th in road XG. For as good as Leverkusen is going forward they give up their fare share of chances. Their home XGA is very shitty, they 3rd worst in the entire Bundesliga. For this reason I think Stuttgart is going to have their share of the chances , and should be able to pull some weight for the Over. The last 3 times these times played the score line was 4-2, 3-1, 5-2. I am looking for more of the same with Leverkusen coming out ahead in a high scoring game. I like the way this shapes up, and I recommend a play on the Over.

Wow this line got smoked over night down to O2.5 -138 opcorn2, I think that is too low , unless I am missing something and there is a heavy rotated lineup which will be released soon.

 

[Crookity]

As I look at all the overnight movement a ton of games have been hit towards the under many of them severely. There are clearly many who are factoring in the long break and world cup on the horizon into their capping. :0003

 

[Snafu]

I was thinking exactly same, got Leverkusen O2? at -150.

WC coming up and there might be some rotation or early substitutions BUT 2nd line guys have chance to step up so imo it's a bit over reaction to just go with under. There is a reason why these 2nd line guys are on the bench of the better teams than playing in lower quality teams: they are still pretty good.

I'm sticking with overs where it looks good.



:0008

 

[Crookity]

I was thinking exactly same, got Leverkusen O2? at -150.

WC coming up and there might be some rotation or early substitutions BUT 2nd line guys have chance to step up so imo it's a bit over reaction to just go with under. There is a reason why these 2nd line guys are on the bench of the better teams than playing in lower quality teams: they are still pretty good.

I'm sticking with overs where it looks good.



:0008

Ya it is as if every game got hit hard to the under. We will see how it plays out with this one. Stuttgart has a bit of a defensive lineup, but I like what Leverkusen is doing loading up the right side with Frimpong and Diaby.

As I write this Ivan Tony just popped his second goal to win it for Brentford at the Etihad. How did England not put this guy in their World Cup line up, what a joke.