BUNDESLIGA
LEVERKUSEN/STUTTGART OVER - Again figure how you guys want to play it, the 2.5 juice is -175 right now. This is another one I linked up with the Hoffenheim game mid week so I only need O2.5, but if I wasn't in this position I would play it at 3 -115 which is the current line. Leverkusen is a team that typically does damage at home. They have dealt with some injuries, and have gone through some brutal stretches. However, they are a deep offensive team and as long as they have Frimpong and Diaby running havoc down the flanks they will continually be a threat to score. Leverkusen have scored 7 times the last 2 times out, and I think we see them continue to produce. Leverkusen averages over 2 goals per game at home, and they face a Stuttgart team that is in awful defensive form. Stuttgart has shipped 13 goals in their last 4 games on the road! Stuttgart has conceded 2 or more goals in all but 1 road game this year, they cannot be trusted at the back. A bonus for me in this one is that Stuttgart offensively is generally good for a goal, and their XG #'s are 6th overall, and 5th in road XG. For as good as Leverkusen is going forward they give up their fare share of chances. Their home XGA is very shitty, they 3rd worst in the entire Bundesliga. For this reason I think Stuttgart is going to have their share of the chances , and should be able to pull some weight for the Over. The last 3 times these times played the score line was 4-2, 3-1, 5-2. I am looking for more of the same with Leverkusen coming out ahead in a high scoring game. I like the way this shapes up, and I recommend a play on the Over.