LETS GO OVER

[Snafu]

penalty kick VARred because of offside... good start :0002

 

[Snafu]

OWAH :toast:

 

[tt boy]

Ronaldo on 92 gets the over 3:0074:0074:0074

 

[Crookity]

I may as well put these out now, the lines are for the most part stable, but I could see some of them moving.

ATALANTA /BENEVENTO OVER 3 -115 -
Atalanta has been on an absolute tear the last few matches, they have now scored 14 goals in their last 4 contests! I have posted a few overs for Atalanta during that stretch, and I am going to ride it again. Benevento comes into this game off a 2-1 win over Cagliari. They have scored 2 goals in 3 of the their last 4 matches, and are generally playing in decent form. They surprisingly have been fairly stingy on defense. During the first half of the year they were very leaky at the back, but lately have really tightened up. With that said, Atalanta is a different beast, that is in prime form, and I think the way they are playing now Ata can get 3 goals themselves. Ata usually gives up chances at the back, and Benevento has been finding the net so I think they can add one.

DORTMUND/RBL OVER 2.5 - 138
I believe BVB have scored in 17 straight games, they aren't getting blanked. RBL has scored in 8 of their last 9. We get the league leaders in shots here ranked 1 & 2, they also rank 2nd and 4th in Shots on Target. I think there will be chances. The teams are near the top in league scoring as well, and combined average just a tick under 4 goals. A look at the recent history between these two shows a mixture of low scoring duds, but also very high scoring affairs. I will take my chances that there will be 3-4 goals in this one.

ROMA/INTER OVER 2.5/3 - 125
This one already started steaming a bit. The over 3 is right about -110 , but I could see it steaming off that # come game time. I think we get 2 willing goal scoring partners in this match up. First thing is first, these teams are ranked 1st (Inter) and 3rd (Roma) in League scoring. Combined they average a healthy 4.8 goals per game! As expected these 2 teams also are right up there in shots, and shots on target. The history between these 2 shows lots of tight affairs, many draws. I fear the 1-1 , but like the price and everything else adds up as a play for me.

JUVENTUS/SASS OVER 3 - 115
This one is starting to move, it is going to come off of 3 altogether. Juventus for the most part has been on an offensive tear. They did get blanked just before X-mas break, but otherwise have found the net 11 times in their last 4 games, including 7 goals the last 2 times out. Sass has scored their last 7 times out, and I think they are more than capable of notching at least a goal in this contest. The way Juventus is going right now they should be good for 2-3. These teams stats as far as goals, shots, shots on target etc. also add up favorably. This all makes it a play for me.


I like these ones, maybe another pops up between now and the weekend.

GOOD LUCK

cR7 with the last minute finisher to top off a perfect weekend! The capping was bang on, most of these played out exactly as I expected . Onto next weekend we go! I am running at a nice clip, just took down 5 in a row , I could be wrong but I tallied it up and show 12-3-2 over the last 3 weeks.

 

[Crookity]

No rest for the wicked, already played these for next weekend as the lines already started to move. I will write these up before the weekend:

ATALANTA - GENOA OVER 3 - 130

AC MILAN - CAGLIARI - OVER 3 - 105


I got these on the radar for next weekend as possible overs -
Roma/Lazio, Union Berlin/Leverkusen , Inter/Juve, Liverpool/Manu , Napoli - Fiorentina

back later in the week when I finalize it all.

 

[Crookity]

No rest for the wicked, already played these for next weekend as the lines already started to move. I will write these up before the weekend:

ATALANTA - GENOA OVER 3 - 130

AC MILAN - CAGLIARI - OVER 3 - 105


I got these on the radar for next weekend as possible overs -
Roma/Lazio, Union Berlin/Leverkusen , Inter/Juve, Liverpool/Manu , Napoli - Fiorentina

back later in the week when I finalize it all.

ADDING TO THE ABOVE PLAY FOR FRIDAY:

BAYERN LEVERKUSEN / UNION BERLIN OVER 2.5 - 110

This line seems off to me, and very much so. This one ticks all the boxes, so I won't over think the line. Leverkusen has scored in 14 of their last 15 games, and Union Berlin has found the net in 17 games in a row. The form suggests that both of these teams should find the net. Moving on, both outfits are in the top 5 in scoring, and average over 2 goals per game. The shots per game, and shots on target aren't as high as I like, but they are both ranked just inside the top 10. The BL scheduling log is full of multi goal efforts, and a ton of 3 and 4 goal efforts. On the other side, Union Berlin have scored 2 goals in their last 5 in a row. The recent history between these clubs also shows a ton of high scoring games, in fact 4 of the last 5 contests have gone over 2.5. The recent form, recent history, overall offensive #'s all point to goals. I checked both teams I couldn't find anything regarding notable injuries. All of this makes the Over a play with value, I am in.

Back with more write ups over the week.

 

[Crookity]

ADDING TO THE ABOVE PLAY FOR FRIDAY:

BAYERN LEVERKUSEN / UNION BERLIN OVER 2.5 - 110

This line seems off to me, and very much so. This one ticks all the boxes, so I won't over think the line. Leverkusen has scored in 14 of their last 15 games, and Union Berlin has found the net in 17 games in a row. The form suggests that both of these teams should find the net. Moving on, both outfits are in the top 5 in scoring, and average over 2 goals per game. The shots per game, and shots on target aren't as high as I like, but they are both ranked just inside the top 10. The BL scheduling log is full of multi goal efforts, and a ton of 3 and 4 goal efforts. On the other side, Union Berlin have scored 2 goals in their last 5 in a row. The recent history between these clubs also shows a ton of high scoring games, in fact 4 of the last 5 contests have gone over 2.5. The recent form, recent history, overall offensive #'s all point to goals. I checked both teams I couldn't find anything regarding notable injuries. All of this makes the Over a play with value, I am in.

Back with more write ups over the week.

I have some time this morning so I will put this one out. I played this yesterday, and the line is starting to move, so here you go guys.

LAZIO/ROMA OVER 2.5 - 150
Biiiig Derby Match in Rome!! I think we have 2 willing partners here as far as goal scoring is concerned. Roma has a prolific offense, when they are in form they are fun to watch. They come into this off a 2 goal performance vs Inter, they have scored in 8 straight, and they have put together many multi goal efforts this year. They aren't defensive stalwarts either, Roma has conceded a goal in 9 of their last 10. Let's flip it over to Lazio, they are as consistent as you get with goal scoring. They have scored in 19 games in a row! Lazio has conceded a goal in 12 of their last 13. I think it is safe to say that the %'s overwhelmingly tell us each team is going to score. They average a tick under 4 goals per game combined, and both are top 10 in crosses, shots, shots on target, and of course goals. The last 2 times they played there were 1-1 draws, but the historicals between these teams going back the last few seasons has plenty of games over 3. I don't weigh historical too much into the 'capping, but it certainly can reinforce a play. I just feel there will be chances in this one. The line is up to -175, I think the over 2.5/3 is still at a decent price.

More to come...

 

[Crookity]

I have some time this morning so I will put this one out. I played this yesterday, and the line is starting to move, so here you go guys.

LAZIO/ROMA OVER 2.5 - 150
Biiiig Derby Match in Rome!! I think we have 2 willing partners here as far as goal scoring is concerned. Roma has a prolific offense, when they are in form they are fun to watch. They come into this off a 2 goal performance vs Inter, they have scored in 8 straight, and they have put together many multi goal efforts this year. They aren't defensive stalwarts either, Roma has conceded a goal in 9 of their last 10. Let's flip it over to Lazio, they are as consistent as you get with goal scoring. They have scored in 19 games in a row! Lazio has conceded a goal in 12 of their last 13. I think it is safe to say that the %'s overwhelmingly tell us each team is going to score. They average a tick under 4 goals per game combined, and both are top 10 in crosses, shots, shots on target, and of course goals. The last 2 times they played there were 1-1 draws, but the historicals between these teams going back the last few seasons has plenty of games over 3. I don't weigh historical too much into the 'capping, but it certainly can reinforce a play. I just feel there will be chances in this one. The line is up to -175, I think the over 2.5/3 is still at a decent price.

More to come...

Interesting day, the Roma game goes over albeit not exactly the way I thought it would go. The German game bit me, and I got suckered into that line. I knew it seemed off. Its all good though, if I would lose alot more wagers if I spent all my time trying to read line moves. I like the plays for the weekend. I will write up a few more at some point.

 

[Crookity]

NAPOLI / FIORENTINA over 2.5 - 125
Taking a stab on the early match , too early for a write up. I will get to the others in a bit.

 

[Crookity]

NAPOLI / FIORENTINA over 2.5 - 125
Taking a stab on the early match , too early for a write up. I will get to the others in a bit.

That was easy! Hopefully a precursor to what is to come.today opcorn2

 

[Crookity]

No rest for the wicked, already played these for next weekend as the lines already started to move. I will write these up before the weekend:

ATALANTA - GENOA OVER 3 - 130

AC MILAN - CAGLIARI - OVER 3 - 105


I got these on the radar for next weekend as possible overs -
Roma/Lazio, Union Berlin/Leverkusen , Inter/Juve, Liverpool/Manu , Napoli - Fiorentina

back later in the week when I finalize it all.

ATALANTA-GENOA OVER 3 -130
The line is now at -160 , that is probably right at my cusp for taking the over 3. I am sure everyone has noticed I will ride teams with these overs when they are hot. Atalanta has been a machine. I don't play League Cups so I sat out the mid week match against Cagliari, but they put up another 3 goal effort. The last 4 matches out Atalanta has found the net 15 times. These are their goal scoring tallies the last 6 times out - 2, 5, 3, 4, 4, 3. Now they get GENOA at home? YESS PLEASE!! I am not jumping off on this stop at the station. Looking for Atalanta to notch 3 here, and Genoa is generally good for a goal themselves.

JUVENTUS/INTER OVER 2.5 - 110
It actually pains me to write this. I am kind of worried with this one, but I have to stick to my guns with how I play these games. All to often we get a big heavy weight matchup that lets us down as far as the game action goes. A lot of times these go tight, and there is a big feeling out process between the power teams. This definitely ticks the boxes as one of those games. The #'s don't lie though when you break it all down. I can't ignore the current form, Juventus is on fire offensively. They have scored 13 goals in their last 4 matchups, with goal scoring tallies of 4, 3, 3, 3...now that gets my attention. Inter has been steady on offense as well stringing together 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 6 matchups. Both have been giving up goals as well with Juventus conceding in 7 of 8 and Inter conceding their last 8 times out. They rank top 5 in shots, shots on target, goals, crosses. The two teams rank 1st & 3rd in goal scoring averaging nearly 5 goals a game. With that said the line is falling like a rock! As I write this it is down to -110 yikes. Line movement is weird you feel so good when its moving with you, but when it drops you get scared. In the end I don't think it makes a difference if you stick to your guns consistently. With that said, I usually flat bet everything, I am going to scalp a bit off the top and lower this wage a hair because I do think a 1-1 tie is quite possible.

 

[Crookity]

ATALANTA-GENOA OVER 3 -130
The line is now at -160 , that is probably right at my cusp for taking the over 3. I am sure everyone has noticed I will ride teams with these overs when they are hot. Atalanta has been a machine. I don't play League Cups so I sat out the mid week match against Cagliari, but they put up another 3 goal effort. The last 4 matches out Atalanta has found the net 15 times. These are their goal scoring tallies the last 6 times out - 2, 5, 3, 4, 4, 3. Now they get GENOA at home? YESS PLEASE!! I am not jumping off on this stop at the station. Looking for Atalanta to notch 3 here, and Genoa is generally good for a goal themselves.

JUVENTUS/INTER OVER 2.5 - 110
It actually pains me to write this. I am kind of worried with this one, but I have to stick to my guns with how I play these games. All to often we get a big heavy weight matchup that lets us down as far as the game action goes. A lot of times these go tight, and there is a big feeling out process between the power teams. This definitely ticks the boxes as one of those games. The #'s don't lie though when you break it all down. I can't ignore the current form, Juventus is on fire offensively. They have scored 13 goals in their last 4 matchups, with goal scoring tallies of 4, 3, 3, 3...now that gets my attention. Inter has been steady on offense as well stringing together 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 6 matchups. Both have been giving up goals as well with Juventus conceding in 7 of 8 and Inter conceding their last 8 times out. They rank top 5 in shots, shots on target, goals, crosses. The two teams rank 1st & 3rd in goal scoring averaging nearly 5 goals a game. With that said the line is falling like a rock! As I write this it is down to -110 yikes. Line movement is weird you feel so good when its moving with you, but when it drops you get scared. In the end I don't think it makes a difference if you stick to your guns consistently. With that said, I usually flat bet everything, I am going to scalp a bit off the top and lower this wage a hair because I do think a 1-1 tie is quite possible.

MAN UNITED - LIVERPOOL OVER 2.5/3 - 135
I went back to put this in and the line got juiced a little past my price target on the 2.5 line. I will go to the next stage up the asian line. This is another one I am a little sketched out on given the circumstances of the game. There is soooo much fire power, and super elite talent on the pitch though. I can't pass up the top 2 scoring teams in the EPL, averaging a combined 4.2 goals per game. They are both top 5 in shots, shots on target, goals. Man Utd has really cooled off, and I jumped off their train a few games back. Liverpool hasn't been playing like world beaters either. With that said the stats, and my gut tell me we see some action in this contest. I will take my chances.

That is it for today, good luck everyone. Hopefully I can get a few more winners to add to that Napoli contest from the morning.

 

[Crookity]

MAN UNITED - LIVERPOOL OVER 2.5/3 - 135
I went back to put this in and the line got juiced a little past my price target on the 2.5 line. I will go to the next stage up the asian line. This is another one I am a little sketched out on given the circumstances of the game. There is soooo much fire power, and super elite talent on the pitch though. I can't pass up the top 2 scoring teams in the EPL, averaging a combined 4.2 goals per game. They are both top 5 in shots, shots on target, goals. Man Utd has really cooled off, and I jumped off their train a few games back. Liverpool hasn't been playing like world beaters either. With that said the stats, and my gut tell me we see some action in this contest. I will take my chances.

That is it for today, good luck everyone. Hopefully I can get a few more winners to add to that Napoli contest from the morning.

Ouch looking really.bad scoreless draws :scared

 

[Crookity]

Well I came crashing back down to Earth this weekend, 2 wins 4 losses. The Juve game pissed me off, they looked like shit. I thought I had the over in the bag with the 2nd goal coming after the half, but nobody could put the final one away. EPL, Bundesliga, and Serie A were all littered with Unders, it was one of those weekends.

Today I have the ACM/Cagliari match over 3 . I thought I got a good line early, but it looks like a bunch of guys are out for ACM - Rebic, Calhanoglu, Krunic, Bennacer, Theo Hernandez, all OUT. With that said, they are pretty deep, and Ibra has returned. I don't buy back bets, I think you would get into big trouble if you start second guessing your wagers. You can get a better price now on the over, that is for sure.

 

[Crookity]

Damnit, another loss yesterday, I felt pretty good when it was 2-0 early in the 2nd half. Haven't been catching some breaks the last few days, but outside of the Liverpool/ManU I have been close on some of these.

no time right now

Dortmund/Leverkusen Over 3 - 110

Roma/Spezia Over 3 - 120 *don't usually play Copa Italia, but I like this one*

 

[Crookity]

1-1 so far this week, hoping to catch a little steam.

If I have time I will write these up;

GLADBACH/DORTMUND OVER 3 - 120

AC MILAN/ATALANTA OVER 3 - 110

ROMA/SPEZIA OVER 3 - 140

 

[Crookity]

1-1 so far this week, hoping to catch a little steam.

If I have time I will write these up;

GLADBACH/DORTMUND OVER 3 - 120

AC MILAN/ATALANTA OVER 3 - 110

ROMA/SPEZIA OVER 3 - 140

Dortmund/BM was easy, I wish they were all like that! I tried to get out in front of that Roma line a few days ago, but it bit me in the ass. Roma has been hit with some injuries for a few weeks now, but a bunch of notable names have been added to that list. As a result the line has risen. I am not going to buy it back at this point, but buyer beware if you are going in on this game.

 

[tt boy]

roma was easy too :toast:

 

[Crookity]

1-1 so far this week, hoping to catch a little steam.

If I have time I will write these up;

GLADBACH/DORTMUND OVER 3 - 120

AC MILAN/ATALANTA OVER 3 - 110

ROMA/SPEZIA OVER 3 - 140

2 wins and a push, really can't believe ACM/ATA didn't go over 3 for the sweep, not complaining though.

Tomorrow I will dip my toes back into Italy.

LAZIO/SASS OVER 2.5/3 -130

 

[Crookity]

Decent week Tuesday-Sunday . 3 1/2 wins 0 losses 1 push. I will take that !

Already played over in the Bayern Leverkusen/Leipzig game next week.