Looking for $12K Survivor Pool Advice for Conf Champ & Super Bowl Games

[SHOWRUNNER]

Hi everyone - I am looking for your advice/knowledge to possibly help make the correct decisions in an attemp to win a huge survivor pool. This started in week 1 and rules are can only take a team TWICE - well i made it through weeks 1-17 w/o a wrong pick - and in the playoffs it resets - again you can take a team but only TWICE.

So for the Wild Card round i picked New Orleans and the Divisional round picked the Patriots - so now I can only use the Patriots a max of one more time.

The pool sits with 13 people left out of 1,200 entries - at $10 per entry - it is winner take ALL- the entire $12K! Myself and a few others have tried to hedge the payout - but someone always shoots down hedging the payout. So we all play on this week!

Honestly, I've hit the wall and am just not sure who I even like in the Pats/Balt or 49ers/Giants game - I can make a case for all 4 teams to win. I am looking for your expert advice as to how you would proceed if you were in my shoes. I know the Patriots are the biggest favorite this weekend but I do think Ravens can be a live dog. For the life of me, I just cannot pick winners of these 2 games - hardest ones in a long time to pick in my opinion. I have picked 19 straight in a row winners, and really want to pick that 20th in a row - and at least get it down to the super bowl game - where i can at least hedge somewhat if i know the minimum i could win in case of a split.

I should add that about 4 teams could take the Patriots twice yet - and feel they may do so.

So my question is - who would you pick:
a) This week for your 1 pick - remember this is STRAIGHT UP - so don't worry about points - just pick your BEST BET winner. Of course remember if you take the Patriots, and they win, you can't even consider taking them in the Super Bowl as the 2 times will be used up.
b) Who would be your Super Bowl pick - do you lean AFC or NFC team? Try to project who you think the matchup woudl be. I'm having a difficult time doing so.

One of my thoughts is to go against the herd - of course i have no idea who is picked until the game happens - only then are the other picks in the league revealed. Also if we go through Super Bowl w/ teams remaining - money is split equally among remaining players. I'd be happy just splitting it 13 ways right now - it's like $900 each if we'd do that - but people seem to want to play for the $12K - i don' think we'll end up w/ just one team though w/ 2 weeks to play.

One thought i had was to take the Giants - to me it seems most will favor the 49ers - and i see most actually going w/ the Patriots or 49ers this weekend. My thought is the majority take Pats or 49ers - so maybe i have a shot to win the whole dang thing if Giants can win this next game - i can't see more than 2 or 3 max being on the Giants.

I also can't see many picking the Ravens - keep in mind alot of these people don't bet the games or consider the dogs -most go for the largest favorite.

Also, i think i really need to ultimately pick either the Giants or the 49ers - don't you think that if the Pats get there they will be favored in the SB? If Baltimore gets there, i can see the Giants or 49ers be slightly favored - but yeah ideally it would be good to have the option to pick the favored team in the super bowl and hedge on the underdog.

First things first though - i need ONE BEST BET WINNER for the championship game - please help with your pick!

Any input is GREATLY appreciated - looking for input of the best of the best on here as well - I do respect everyone's opinion - so if you have a second - have some fun with it - and let me know if you see an "optimal strategy".

Thanks and best of luck w/ your Conf Champ & Super Bowl picks this year! I appreaciate you reading this and your thoughts - have a good one!

 

[hedman]

How many of the 13 left took the Pats last week, that would influence my pick. I'd want to save the Pats if a majority got in with the Pats, which I'm assuming they did.

And whoever I take in the NFC, probably the Giants, I'd hedge on the money line of the other. IF the PATS get through, or hedge MORE if PATS lose.

I also like seeing how many get through with the Pats, as the early game and if that number has already used Pats twice or can use them again on the amount I would hedge.

 

[Amethyest]

Hi everyone - I am looking for your advice/knowledge to possibly help make the correct decisions in an attemp to win a huge survivor pool. This started in week 1 and rules are can only take a team TWICE - well i made it through weeks 1-17 w/o a wrong pick - and in the playoffs it resets - again you can take a team but only TWICE.

So for the Wild Card round i picked New Orleans and the Divisional round picked the Patriots - so now I can only use the Patriots a max of one more time.

The pool sits with 13 people left out of 1,200 entries - at $10 per entry - it is winner take ALL- the entire $12K! Myself and a few others have tried to hedge the payout - but someone always shoots down hedging the payout. So we all play on this week!

Honestly, I've hit the wall and am just not sure who I even like in the Pats/Balt or 49ers/Giants game - I can make a case for all 4 teams to win. I am looking for your expert advice as to how you would proceed if you were in my shoes. I know the Patriots are the biggest favorite this weekend but I do think Ravens can be a live dog. For the life of me, I just cannot pick winners of these 2 games - hardest ones in a long time to pick in my opinion. I have picked 19 straight in a row winners, and really want to pick that 20th in a row - and at least get it down to the super bowl game - where i can at least hedge somewhat if i know the minimum i could win in case of a split.

I should add that about 4 teams could take the Patriots twice yet - and feel they may do so.

So my question is - who would you pick:
a) This week for your 1 pick - remember this is STRAIGHT UP - so don't worry about points - just pick your BEST BET winner. Of course remember if you take the Patriots, and they win, you can't even consider taking them in the Super Bowl as the 2 times will be used up.
b) Who would be your Super Bowl pick - do you lean AFC or NFC team? Try to project who you think the matchup woudl be. I'm having a difficult time doing so.

One of my thoughts is to go against the herd - of course i have no idea who is picked until the game happens - only then are the other picks in the league revealed. Also if we go through Super Bowl w/ teams remaining - money is split equally among remaining players. I'd be happy just splitting it 13 ways right now - it's like $900 each if we'd do that - but people seem to want to play for the $12K - i don' think we'll end up w/ just one team though w/ 2 weeks to play.

One thought i had was to take the Giants - to me it seems most will favor the 49ers - and i see most actually going w/ the Patriots or 49ers this weekend. My thought is the majority take Pats or 49ers - so maybe i have a shot to win the whole dang thing if Giants can win this next game - i can't see more than 2 or 3 max being on the Giants.

I also can't see many picking the Ravens - keep in mind alot of these people don't bet the games or consider the dogs -most go for the largest favorite.

Also, i think i really need to ultimately pick either the Giants or the 49ers - don't you think that if the Pats get there they will be favored in the SB? If Baltimore gets there, i can see the Giants or 49ers be slightly favored - but yeah ideally it would be good to have the option to pick the favored team in the super bowl and hedge on the underdog.

First things first though - i need ONE BEST BET WINNER for the championship game - please help with your pick!

Any input is GREATLY appreciated - looking for input of the best of the best on here as well - I do respect everyone's opinion - so if you have a second - have some fun with it - and let me know if you see an "optimal strategy".

Thanks and best of luck w/ your Conf Champ & Super Bowl picks this year! I appreaciate you reading this and your thoughts - have a good one!

when do u have to make your pick for this week by? :0corn

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

Thanks for early responses guys - and keep them coming - it's fun to debate this stuff!

hedman - 10 of the 13 have used the Patriots already - so 3 of the teams are in the drivers seat if they want to roll w/ the Patriots twice - and honestly if i had both left, i'd probably lean that way - right now i feel they have a great chance to get to & win the Super Bowl

amethyest - i just need to have the pick in before the games start on Sunday - i REALLY wish that they needed to be in earlier - so all picks could be published - they are only shown on the website after that game goes off - so i will first see who was on balt/new england after that kicks off - and then see who was on 49ers/giants after that kicks off

What intrigues me is i think most will be on the Patriots - if the ravens win - which is a good possible "upset" - then i really think those that didn't choose Patriots probably will take the 49ers - so i really think that the Giants will be a very minority pick - which intrigues me

I think Giants can win - BUT the cross country trip, and 3rd straight week of games - playing on road is tough to keep winning in playoffs - i just have a feeling Giants get to super bowl.

But yeah that's why i'm seeking advice as I find this to be a very tough weekend to pick the games.

Thanks for the input and keep it coming please!

FYI - i will want to have everything decided by Saturday evening - and I'll post who I'm rolling with - thanks!

 

[hedman]

With 10 of 13 already on the Pats, you know the 3 with the Pats twice will take the PATS.

So 3 for sure on Pats.

Out of the remaining 10, I would wager at least 6 would take the Pats, if not more.

Leaving 4 odd balls. No one will take Baltimore.

I think out of the 4 it would be split 50/50 on SF and NYG.

SO out of 13 people, I'd say at least 9 will be on Pats, with those 9 only 3 could be on Pats and the remaining 6 on NFC winner.

I would not want to be on the NFC winner for sure with that large of group, so I'd make my move here and try to sneak in with the 3 who could take the Pats, plus you still have a Good Bmore team who could knock out a lot of the pool.

Do you have the ability to HEDGE large sums or is this a win it all or nothing? That also plays a factor. If you could hedge, I'd take SF and than hedge on Giants money line and + points. Another good hedge here is Pats - 1 1/2 and the team either SF or Giants you do not choose.

I'd like to be in your shoes, as you have a lot of acquired value.

 

[Amethyest]

San Fran, then following week take Brady, yes Brady, least you will do is tie, nay you win :0074

 

[Hashish]

Baltimore beats New England this Sunday. As has been proven already this year, the rumors of the demise of defensive teams have been greatly exaggerated. To me that is the clearest victory. NE gonna get smacked in the mouth, but the NFC is a coin flip. Good luck to you.

 

[sfmoney]

At this point I wouldn?t worry about what others pick or the super bowl pick but just worry about getting to the next game. You are guaranteed money at this point, as with any scenario you go with you could hedge and win money.

If you go with NE, you could make two parlay money line wagers, Bal/SF for 500 to win 2850 and Bal/NYG for 500 to 3800. If Balt wins you are guaranteed 2350, not bad for a $10 investment. If NE wins you are out 1k but in the major pot for 12k. For the SB it will depend on who is left without their NE pick as that is the group you would have to split with and figure out the best hedge amount to make up the 1k and make a profit. Obviously, use an amount your comfortable with but this is one route you can go with.

As an alternative or in addition you can make a Balt +7.5 wager if you think it is going to be close and possibly win both.

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

Interesting thoughts so far guys - thanks - see this is why i say i feel this is toughest championship wekeend in a while...

Jedi - i appreciate your input and you feel strongly baltimore wins on sunday - i've seen alot that are projecting that, and of course equally as many predicting the patriots w/ an easy win - the more i think about this game though - i think most will pick the patriots - it's hard to win survivor pools picking w/ the herd - so i'm really thinking avoiding this game is the best bet - i would LOVE to see 70% of the pool on New England, and be roooting for the Ravens to pull the "upset" - i also agree - defense, running game can win championships - i am not counting out baltimore by any means

in fact - taking baltimore would be the gutsy play - be against the herd on Patriots

I still think picking Giants/49ers is a toss up

amethyest - you seem to like the 49ers - i do always love home field in the conference champ game - the crowd was into it and their defense is legit - saints got smacked around....the cross country travel also to me is a red flag against the giants...

still as much as eli seems to be disliked - i respect the heck out of him and love their trio of WR"s and the bradshaw/jacobs combo - and i think that giants D has really come together at the right time

you know what is the hardest thing for me to believe in - Alex Smith - i was SHOCKED that he led them to those scoring drives at the end of the Saints game - SHOCKED! I guess i have to give him more respect

I can't help but feel though that the 49ers won their super bowl vs. the Saints lasat week - that's how i felt when Denver beat Pitt - i can see the same thing happening for the 49ers - just seems like the Giants won't let up

When i saw the line came out like SF -1 and up to -2.5 - i also thought that line looked very fishy - sort of the "easy favorite" line w/ the 49ers - did anyone else think that way? I would feel better about the 49ers if they were -7 - but the -2.5 - i'm always leery of that line with the favorite.

I'll be studying this all week - i've picked 19 in a row correct which is not easy to do.

I do have outlets to hedge stuff but it's hard to do w/ 13 left - so yeah i'm really trying to get by one more week - then i should be in better shape to figure out a hedge. Right now, i guess early in this week i don't see any one play that seems more likely to win than any other - i think i can see a case for all 4 sides - hopefully by later this week things become more clear

i appreciate the ongoing thoughts - keep them coming through the week everyone! Treat this thread not only as trying to figure out the BEST BET for the survivor pool, but let's figure out the best sides for the entire upcoming weekend!

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

sfmoney - i like your suggestion about the heding now - the biggest thing though i am dealing with is the uncertainty of knowing how many will move on to that super bowl round - i like your parlay ideas or yeah just the ravens +7.5 one - as well i could do ravens moneyline if i did take pats

the thing holding me back about hedging for this next game is there are 13 teams - and what is amazing is we went into last week w/ 13 teams - yes nobody lost out last week - and honestly it could happen that all 13 or even 10 move on to the final week

My fear of doing the parlay hedges is like you said if NE wins, i'm out $1K - right now this split 13 ways is $923 - if i hedge and lose that, i still then have to figure out a hedge for the super bowl - and you never know theoretically all 13 coudl remain after the super bowl as well...

great input though - i'll play with the numbers and scenarios to see if one works best - i appreciate your thoughts - thanks!

 

[tig3rs]

sfmoney, i think you're too aggressive in your hedge parlays.

SHOWRUNNER, please explain if there are any tiebreakers. i assume not and therefore the likelihood of a split pot is a very real possibility.

i think you have to disregard what the others have done because you can't guess what they will do. (if you're in the SB group, then of course you can make some educated guesses).


you have to realize that your max here is probably not $12k, it's more likely $3k, $4k, or $6k. if you somehow defy the odds and are the only one on your side of the SB, then halle-f'n-lujah you get to have a blast watching the game and placing some large in-game wagers and a larger halftime bet. (note: you need to have $1k ready for this week and up to $5k for the SB if you get there)

if you think the patriots win the SB, then i think it's simple on your part intellectually. you take NE this week in the pool and bet $400 on BAL +285. BAL wins, you're up $1130 and don't have to sweat the SB. NE wins, you're -$400 but now you have the NFC team in the SB and you'll probably be on the minority side. say there's 8 left, it'll be 5-3 NE probably, leaving you in it for $4k. 6, probably 4-2 or 3-3, if it's down to 5 it's probably because some people wanted to save their NE pick for the SB and got the NFC game wrong.

so if NE wins, you're -$400, but own the NFC team in the SB. now, in that case (being conservative here) NE will be a 4'-6pt fave, making them somewhere between -230 and -280. say your bottom is $3k (there's 4 on NFC)... then you have a couple options. you can buy NE down to a 2' fave at -150 to -190 or just go ML at -250 or so. you put $2000 at -250 and you lock in a $400 NE / $1000+ NFC. and then you have $1k to bet on NE -6 or whatever.


MY NUMBERS WERE ALL CONSERVATIVE. I STILL BELIEVE YOU HAVE A SHOT AT $6k or $12k, but in earning so much value, i think you just lock in a win-win and say "thank you gambling gods for letting me win 19 in a row"


bottom line:
i think it's too risky to try to pick the NYG/SF matchup because it's so close. if you take SF, you have to hedge with NYG +123, not giving you much upside if you get it wrong.
taking BAL is crazy, IMHO. you can't hedge that with the NE -330 ML.

just my two cents. good luck man and good job so far. load up that online account if you haven't already! :bigun:

 

[tig3rs]

My fear of doing the parlay hedges is like you said if NE wins, i'm out $1K - right now this split 13 ways is $923 - if i hedge and lose that, i still then have to figure out a hedge for the super bowl - and you never know theoretically all 13 coudl remain after the super bowl as well...

SHOW, you're not going to split 13 ways. that's virtually impossible. i think you'll end up with 4-8 others if you advance. and that will be split somehow. think your absolute bottom would be splitting the $12k 5 ways. so $2400 bottom.

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

tig3rs - thanks alot for your input - i appreciate it

to answer your question there are NO tiebreakers - none at all - if people survive the super bowl, it's just divided by who is left

i agree most likely 4-8 like you say - but i just had to put out there that if everyone took the same side this week AND super bowl week - and heck that has come very close to happening before - then there would be 13 - i just never want to assume more - that's why i say i'm planning to hedge for at least the minimum i know

but yeah most likely people will get some wrong - i still say each of these games are toss ups

and yes - i'm just looking to lock in something - i'd be fine w/ bringing back anything - it's one of those things you hate to see that "equity" wasted - but yeah on the flip side always the part that wants to just let it ride to go for the big payout - but yeah i'm sure i will end up heding this a bit

it would be so much easier if we knew who was on what say even a day before the games started - but it is what it is

thanks for the input - really appreciated! keep the thoughts coming guys & good luck on your plays next weekend!

 

[cash]

If it were me I would roll with Brady in CS.It seems
he is on a mission and there has not been anyone
better since montana at accomplishing their mission.

Think about it this way. If you needed a late game drive to get you through to the SB,which of the 4
qbs do you want your money on...SIMPLE REALLY

I do not think it will come to that but that would be
your worse case scenario (assuming no injuries).

Then in the SB buy the PATS down to -3. You may be only 1 of 2or3 alive with NFC. good luck

 

[tig3rs]

but yeah most likely people will get some wrong - i still say each of these games are toss ups

and yes - i'm just looking to lock in something - i'd be fine w/ bringing back anything - it's one of those things you hate to see that "equity" wasted - but yeah on the flip side always the part that wants to just let it ride to go for the big payout - but yeah i'm sure i will end up heding this a bit

if you think both games are toss ups than you have to take NE and hedge with BAL as they have the best price for hedging. it's a no f'n brainer if you think they're both toss-ups. because with that logic, then the 13 picks should be pretty equally split and you can't possibly have everyone on the same teams twice.

 

[MadJack]

I can't help but feel though that the 49ers won their super bowl vs. the Saints lasat week

The same can be said about the Giants.

Everybody is focusing all their attention on the team with the worst defense in the NFL.

It has been proven over and again that defense wins over offense and was proven again last weekend.

NE could win this week and you won't need them in the Superbowl because they won't beat either of the NFC teams. So why think about saving the NE team?

NE will not win back to back games by beating 2 winning teams with top 5 defenses, that will not be done.

 

[bleedingpurple]

First off baltimores defense should not be compared to being as good as their stats! Not saying they won't win but in the game that involved a heavy pass offense, they were slaughtered!

IMO you have to choose between the niners giants game and save the pars for Super Bowl cause if they make it, they will be favored giving you great hedge opportunity

If you choose pats now and they make it, you are stuck taking the NFC team which would be the dog and lowering your hedge opportunity! That being said niners / giants game is a toss up but I lean g men! Take gmen and hope pats lose. Then you have a great hedge in Super Bowl!

Wow it is tough

 

[MadJack]

First off baltimores defense should not be compared to being as good as their stats! Not saying they won't win but in the game that involved a heavy pass offense, they were slaughtered!

IMO you have to choose between the niners giants game and save the pars for Super Bowl cause if they make it, they will be favored giving you great hedge opportunity

If you choose pats now and they make it, you are stuck taking the NFC team which would be the dog and lowering your hedge opportunity! That being said niners / giants game is a toss up but I lean g men! Take gmen and hope pats lose. Then you have a great hedge in Super Bowl!

Wow it is tough

That was one letdown game. Can't count their stats is HUGELY ridiculous!

Their record vs winning teams is 7-0 and 7-0 vs playoff teams.

NE can't say anything like that. They played all shit defenses except Pittsburgh and what happened there?

Your blind, dude.

Quit making embarrassing statements for yourself.

 

[tig3rs]

Wow it is tough

it's only tough if your goal is to win the whole thing. your goal now should be to maximize opportunity. and taking the giants or niners and hedging with the other side isn't a great opportunity.

take the best value hedge this week (NE in the pool, BAL moneyline) and hope you make it to the SB where you're in the running for the most possible $. you get to the SB owning the NFC team, find out how many people have who after kickoff and you can lay the appropriate max on the Pats on the first in-game chance you get. hopefully NFC scores first and you can get NE pk or NE-2' at -110.


good luck man. don't gamble. lock in a win now.

 

[bleedingpurple]

Baltimore is going to have to win this game on offense their defense is going to give up points! New England if they lose will lose cause their defense sucks!

I can only project what baltimore's defense will do in this game to the charger game cause all other offenses they played this year were marginal. Most down right lousy. Still think Baltimore can win but they will need to score