Looking for $12K Survivor Pool Advice for Conf Champ & Super Bowl Games

[MadJack]

Comparing one game :lol:

What offenses did NE play that were better?

They played #8 and #12 and lost both, Giants and Steelers. They played #14 Buffalo and lost once.

Baltimore played the #1, 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 defenses and WON!

NE played nothing like that, nothing.

You can twist and turn all you want but it's ain't working.

Show me ONE quality NE win this season. I can show you 7 and if you can come up with one, I bet the Ravens beat them too.

All NE has going for them in this game is home field and the last time the Ravens played them at NE the Ravens sent them home.

You have nothing, nothing, NOTHING to go by to show me NE -8 is the way to bet this game.

They could win, I'm not predicting anything, but to play NE because of how the Ravens played SD at SD is totally ridiculous!

BTW, shitty Flacco's QB rating Sunday was 100 vs the #2 defense in the NFL.

:0008

 

[bleedingpurple]

it's only tough if your goal is to win the whole thing. your goal now should be to maximize opportunity. and taking the giants or niners and hedging with the other side isn't a great opportunity.

take the best value hedge this week (NE in the pool, BAL moneyline) and hope you make it to the SB where you're in the running for the most possible $. you get to the SB owning the NFC team, find out how many people have who after kickoff and you can lay the appropriate max on the Pats on the first in-game chance you get. hopefully NFC scores first and you can get NE pk or NE-2' at -110.


good luck man. don't gamble. lock in a win now.

I guess I don't see it your way. You take the Pats now and hedge with Balty. So if Balty loses you lost hedge money then you have to go with the NFC in the Super Bowl then you have to re hedge on the Pats ML at about - 300?? Since most will have the Pats almost all will be in the pool and some will have the Pats again and some will have the NFC.. So I would assume the pot will be split a few ways and already double hedged..

I guess it depends on your situation but instead of a double hedge I am gambling with the NFC this week, me personally I am taking the Giants and then hedging with the Niners for a few hundred or so whatever comfortable and then if the Giants win I am taking the Pats in the SuperBowl and then the Giants ML for a great hedge. Assuming the Pats would be about a 5 - 7 pt favorite..

 

[bleedingpurple]

Comparing one game :lol:

What offenses did NE play that were better?

They played #8 and #12 and lost both, Giants and Steelers. They played #14 Buffalo and lost once.

Baltimore played the #1, 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 defenses and WON!

NE played nothing like that, nothing.

You can twist and turn all you want but it's ain't working.

Show me ONE quality NE win this season. I can show you 7 and if you can come up with one, I bet the Ravens beat them too.

All NE has going for them in this game is home field and the last time the Ravens played them at NE the Ravens sent them home.

You have nothing, nothing, NOTHING to go by to show me NE -8 is the way to bet this game.

They could win, I'm not predicting anything, but to play NE because of how the Ravens played SD at SD is totally ridiculous!

BTW, shitty Flacco's QB rating Sunday was 100 vs the #2 defense in the NFL.

:0008

I guess i am not saying New England - 8 is the way to bet this game. I am saying that baltimores defense is not as good as advertised. I am saying that if Balty wins it will be because of offense, not defense.

 

[BigGaycapper]

Take the Giants this week in your survivor pool then grab futures on the Ravens and 49ers at +650 and +350 depending on your book to win the Superbowl. Then if the Pats beat the Ravens you use them as your Superbowl pick. Only way you would lose is if the Giants win the Superbowl but there would probably be a hedging oppurtunity there too since the Pats would surely be a td fav over the Giants. :shrug:

 

[tig3rs]

I guess I don't see it your way. You take the Pats now and hedge with Balty. So if Balty loses you lost hedge money then you have to go with the NFC in the Super Bowl then you have to re hedge on the Pats ML at about - 300?? Since most will have the Pats almost all will be in the pool and some will have the Pats again and some will have the NFC.. So I would assume the pot will be split a few ways and already double hedged..

I guess it depends on your situation but instead of a double hedge I am gambling with the NFC this week, me personally I am taking the Giants and then hedging with the Niners for a few hundred or so whatever comfortable and then if the Giants win I am taking the Pats in the SuperBowl and then the Giants ML for a great hedge. Assuming the Pats would be about a 5 - 7 pt favorite..

a -135 hedge this week with SF? so if you win you get to take NE over the giants in the pool? you'll be on the majority side of the pool reducing your upside (yes you get to hedge with the giants but you've lowered your ceiling.

worst case this week by taking NE and hedging BAL is a solid $1100 (with $400 risk, vs your suggested $405 risk to win $300)

best case, you advance and are in the minority side with the ability to buy NE side throughout the game and lock in a very solid win-win. gambling at this point on a game lined home team -1 is what is: gambling. lock in a solid win now.

 

[tig3rs]

Take the Giants this week in your survivor pool then grab futures on the Ravens and 49ers at +650 and +350 depending on your book to win the Superbowl. Then if the Pats beat the Ravens you use them as your Superbowl pick. Only way you would lose is if the Giants win the Superbowl but there would probably be a hedging oppurtunity there too since the Pats would surely be a td fav over the Giants. :shrug:

again... picking and hedging on the NFC game doesn't offer the value of taking NE and hedging with BAL.

i do agree with playing futures. i think that's obvious at this point. if you hedge with BAL, throw some on the +650 as well, because it'll be less than a FG lined SB with BAL so youll be able to spend your BAL winnings on some NFC side while having BAL+650 on the other. WIN-WIN.

 

[hedman]

again... picking and hedging on the NFC game doesn't offer the value of taking NE and hedging with BAL.

i do agree with playing futures. i think that's obvious at this point. if you hedge with BAL, throw some on the +650 as well, because it'll be less than a FG lined SB with BAL so youll be able to spend your BAL winnings on some NFC side while having BAL+650 on the other. WIN-WIN.

I disagree. I think there is more value in staying away from the Pats. If you take the Pats this week, with the other multiple enteries you are going to be locked in with multiple people on the NFC in the superbowl, which divides the pot more, if you get in with the NFC this week, you can take the Pats with a smaller group next week, it also gives the chance in the morning game to eliminate a significant number of the people involved probably 9+, and you could HEDGE significantly on the late game.

 

[Hashish]

49ers/Giants a coin flip. I don't think many will argue about that. You just need to decide if you believe in offense or defense in the AFC Championship.

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[tig3rs]

I disagree. I think there is more value in staying away from the Pats. If you take the Pats this week, with the other multiple enteries you are going to be locked in with multiple people on the NFC in the superbowl, which divides the pot more, if you get in with the NFC this week, you can take the Pats with a smaller group next week, it also gives the chance in the morning game to eliminate a significant number of the people involved probably 9+, and you could HEDGE significantly on the late game.

with 4 possibles this week, i think your assumption that most people (9+) will be on NE and therefore on the majority on the NFC in the SB is faulty. 3 people can still take NE twice. and i would imagine some of the 10 will try to salvage NE for the SB, meaning there will be some losers from the NFCC. i'm not in the pool and don't know how much love BAL has gotten but i have to assume at least 1 person will take BAL this week, if only just hedging some SB futures bets and hoping to be in the smallest poss. pool for the SB.

the 3 who didn't take NE last week took either BAL, SF, or NYG. for both SF and NYG, to pick them last week you really had to believe in them. especially foregoing the chance to use NE. in those cases, i would imagine those players will be taking that team again, leaving them with AFC in the SB. for those that took BAL, I would imagine they'd be worried about taking BAL again, and could likely prepare to take NE twice.

any way i look at it, i can't imagine you being in a group larger than 5 on the NFC side in the SB... as i said several posts ago: giving you a floor in a NFC SB win of $2400 allowing you to hedge plenty on NE. and worst case, again, you are out and are up $1100 with a BAL win.

it'd be totally different if you were just picking games and betting them. but you're trying to salvage as much earned equity as possible here. and this way you lock in $1k+ with little sweat.

good luck SHOW. i couldn't settle for $300 by trying to pick the NFC game and being wrong. NE is favored for a reason. but if they get past BAL, they're going to be facing just as tough if not a tougher D and a better or much better O in the SB. and you'll be on that side.

 

[tig3rs]

49ers/Giants a coin flip. I don't think many will argue about that. You just need to decide if you believe in offense or defense in the AFC Championship.

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it's not even that. at this point you're not picking games. you're cashing out the equity you've earned! you can cash out $1100 with BAL or you can be in for quite the ride in the SB!

it's just like taking a few NCAABB teams in January at 100-1 and 80-1... you're hoping they make it to the second weekend and then you can hedge! you stop picking and you cash out!

no hoping. no guessing. lock in the win-win.

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

FYI last week 10 were on new England and the other 3 were on Baltimore. The pool participants seem to favor those afc teams - the saints and packers losing really makes the scenario tough as 49ers/giants seem so even.

The thing to keep in mind - it is possible 10-13 will be on new england again - predicting how many remain is very tough - right now split 13 ways its 923 each - let's say I do balt moneyline 400 to win 1100 and pats win and if let's say 10 on new England and 3 on san fran - and san fran wins - now stll 13 left and I am out 400 and have to take nfc team - this does not seem that good because now most would have to take nfc! So maybe 10 are on nfc - if nfc wins I get 1200 from split but lost 400 so netted 800 - but that is not taking into account a super bowl hedge!

And if pats get to super bowl it looks like a 3.5 pt spread vs nfc - so a -150 to -175 moneyline

Bottom line I am not seeing the 1100 profit regardless - I can't assume just 5 or 6 teams left after this week

I'm trying to get optimal strategy assuming most survive - am i missing something? I appreciate your help everyone!

 

[bleedingpurple]

I disagree. I think there is more value in staying away from the Pats. If you take the Pats this week, with the other multiple enteries you are going to be locked in with multiple people on the NFC in the superbowl, which divides the pot more, if you get in with the NFC this week, you can take the Pats with a smaller group next week, it also gives the chance in the morning game to eliminate a significant number of the people involved probably 9+, and you could HEDGE significantly on the late game.

THIS!!

I guess each its own, but I strongly thing the Pats win this week and hedging money on Balty is lost money. You are still going to make money hedging with SF ML or Giants ML cause you will have the chance to play the Pats in the superbowl in the pool and getting a good hedge in SB..

Now if Balty wins it throws it out the window but you still have hedged money back??I take my chances that Pats win..

Now if you think the NFC is going to win the SuperBowl then I would definitely take the Pats this week and hedge with Balty.

 

[tig3rs]

SHOW, i don't think 13 will advance. just don't see that happening.

bleedingpurple, i think you're right: "to each his own" and my point is play it safe, don't gamble. this is the NFL and i think it's nuts to say one team is a lock in an AFC Champ gm.

SHOW, i think if you insist on looking it at as if 13 will advance to the SB, then you have to make your pick this week based on who you think will win so that you can advance. then you take whoever you're obligated to (if you take NE this wk) or who you think is going to win if you're free to take either. then after the game starts, you look at everyone's picks, calculate what you have to play with and play in-game lines.

had enough of this back and forth on the style... i'm inclined to locking in wins whenever possible because there's no free $ and no locks in this game.
there's 2 clear options here, neither of which lose you money. you pick a side in one of the games and hedge. if you make it to the SB, you HEDGE! figuring out how many will be left is an educated guess. if you think you're likely to split this thing 9 ways, then plan for that.

peace i'm outta here

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

tig3rs - thanks alot for your input - i am strongly considering doing what you recommended - i know it's unlikely that ALL 13 advance, however i just don't want to "over-hedge" - i have seen others assume in the past but yeah most likely a few get eliminated and then a few more for super bowl - maybe i should assume there would be 5 or 6 left after the super bowl then?

alot of good input from all so far - thanks again - normally i have no troubles spotting the side i like - it's just that this years championship game round, with these teams remaining, that is giving me a hard time!

one reason i do like considering taking baltimore + the points as a hedge - should be able to get 8 or 9 points - is that if i do take new england, i can win both bets - very well could be a new england wins by 3, 4, 5, or 7 type of game....

while the moneyline for balt would give me alot more + money if balt wins, the possibility to win the hedge AND survive to the super bowl might be most appealing to me right now

one thing is for sure - i've seen people in the thread who made a case for each team - goes to show what a tough weekend it is to pick games

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

Afteer thinking about all the angles and doing my own analysis on the games - I have decided to take the 49ers in the survivor pool - so yes I am gambling a bit but I want to go for a larger payout and feel 49ers are the weekends best bet.

I will not hedge unless 49ers win - there are just too many unknown variables for me to hedge this round. I have $10 invested and just want to see if I can turn it into a decent amount. I expect about 10 on the patriots - but there is a chance all 12 others take them - if that happens I will know it before 49ers play - I would be freerolling to win the whole thing or worst case split it 13 ways.

I like the 49ers because I respect the strong home record, the giants travel is going to catch up with them Sunday, 49ers have the better kicking game and defense, and I broke down the week 10 49ers win where gore had 6 carries for 0 yards - he was a non factor but healthy now.

I just saw thunder has 9% play on 49ers - sweet - i respect his picks alot!

If 49ers go down I have no regrets - I just feel after much thought this is my best strategy - if they win I can take afc or nfc in super bowl - so could hedge by taking the favorite and hedging the dog.

I would also know how many are left and have the clearest picture of where things stand.

Good luck with your weekend picks!

 

[tig3rs]

I have $10 invested and just want to see if I can turn it into a decent amount.

you don't just have $10 in this now, genius! you have $100s if not $1000s in earned value/equity!! christ!

UNREAL. YOU BETTER AT LEAST BUY SOME GIANTS SUPER BOWL FUTURES.

 

[hedman]

I like taking SF, however you are nuts not to hedge on the game. More if NE loses and a significant number are knocked out.

I'd hedge with NE pick, Giants + 8 1/2 teaser. First.

Then if that is still alive, cause Pats win, leave it.

If Pats, lose, reup on the Giants + the points and Superbowl Future, cause AGAIN if Pats lose your EQUITY is going to go up SIGNIFICANTLY.

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

Hey guys - I'm not saying i won't hedge at all - if the situation happens like i think it may - if say 10 are on NE - and NE goes down - and we are sitting with 3 to go - by all means i'll put in a hedge - but that's my point i'll know more variables by then - it's great the the 49ers game is last - opens up the options.

Anyone out there - show me how I can guarantee THOUSANDS in this with the information we know right now as I'm not seeing it - as most likely the most i can stand to win in the pool is either $2,000 (split 4 ways), $2400 (split 5 ways), $3,000 (split 4 ways), $4,000 (split 3 ways). Remember I don't want to "over hedge" myself here - it very well can be splitting this 7, 8, 9, or maybe more ways - in those cases hedging nets very little.

Tig3ers - I appreciate and respect your input - i just want to see the math example where i have thousands of guaranteed equity knowing what i know now - I'm not trying to get you worked up, i'm really just struggling to see a LIKELY example of where hedging does anything more than guarantee $300.

Here is a complete likely example i worked through:

*I take NE - and let's say 8 are on NE, 1 balt, 1 NYGiants, 3 49ers
*I hedge and put $400 to win $1,000 on balt moneyline
*49ers win, and NE wins - so I have 11 moving on to next week - and now must take NFC - let's say that the 3 that are able to take NE still take them (they first took NE first time this week), and then 3 others who took 49ers now can still take NE & they take them - so we get 6 on new england, and then 5 on the 49ers for the super bowl
*in this scenario I am on the 49ers for the super bowl - I already lost $400 on the Balt hedge
*I now stand to win $2,400 from the pool split 5 ways if 49ers win.
*to hedge, I have to take the favorite New England - i'm guessing they will be about a 4 pt fave which would be probably arounda -175 moneyline for New England in the super bowl - a conservative estimate.
*to hedge, I put $1,225 to win $700 on New England
*if 49ers win super bowl I win the $700 but lost $400 - so I only net $300
*if New England wins I get the $2,400 but now subtract $400 and subtract the $1,225 NE hedge and I only net $775

I am not seeing the scnearios where heding guarantees me anything in the thousands - what am I missing?

I feel this is a very realistic scenario - there is not going to be just 2 or 3 survivors unless i try taking a risk and taking 49ers or Giants this week - because most will be on new england

I guess the more i thought, i am willing to risk that guaranteed $300 - for potential to get the whole $12,000. It would not suprise me if everyone but me took New England this week - keep in mind - most of these people DO NOT bet sports - most are just everyday people who like sports, and are taking the biggest favorite each week. It wouldn't surprise me at all if in reality 10 were on NE, and 3 were on SF, or if it was split to 2 on giants, 2 on SF, 9 on NE or something. I really think Baltimore could win, but most will just think i better take the largest favorite. I'm probably the only one left considering hedging.

If I do get through the week if i do go w/ the 49ers - then i have a much clearer picture - i guess i'm ok giving up $300 guaranteed money for the shot at getting to the guaranteed thousands. I clearly see value in hedging - but it's tough to do now when the picture is not as clear.

Show me some examples similar to what I just spelled out - showing every bet i would be placing - I apologize in advance if i am missing something - this is meant to be a fun conversation though - and thanks for your input!

 

[tig3rs]

Hey guys - I'm not saying i won't hedge at all - if the situation happens like i think it may - if say 10 are on NE - and NE goes down - and we are sitting with 3 to go - by all means i'll put in a hedge - but that's my point i'll know more variables by then - it's great the the 49ers game is last - opens up the options.

please post the picks (and who's used who how many x) when you get them at kickoff. emotionally invested in this pool now. LOL. if you guess right and it's 8 or 9 on NE and 0 on BAL and BAL does win... i hope there's not just 1 person on NYG!

 

[bleedingpurple]

I like the fact that you picked this game and would definitely be placing some on the giants ml