Looking for $12K Survivor Pool Advice for Conf Champ & Super Bowl Games

[hedman]

please post the picks (and who's used who how many x) when you get them at kickoff. emotionally invested in this pool now. LOL. if you guess right and it's 8 or 9 on NE and 0 on BAL and BAL does win... i hope there's not just 1 person on NYG!

Ditto. If it is a pool of 13 people who dont bet sports, as he has said, then I think a majority will take NE.

Id wager at least 8 on NE. Id also wager 0 on Baltimore.

I think NY will get some picks, cause of last week, it also depends on where you are located.

Good Luck on whatever you do, but keep me posted. Here's to hoping we can continue this discussion next week.

I still love the PATS/Giants teaser to cover some here and increase the odds of a higher pay out if Pats lose.

GOOD LUCK

 

[tig3rs]

Ditto. If it is a pool of 13 people who dont bet sports, as he has said, then I think a majority will take NE.

Id wager at least 8 on NE. Id also wager 0 on Baltimore.

I think NY will get some picks, cause of last week, it also depends on where you are located.

Good Luck on whatever you do, but keep me posted. Here's to hoping we can continue this discussion next week.

I still love the PATS/Giants teaser to cover some here and increase the odds of a higher pay out if Pats lose.

GOOD LUCK

i don't know how there's 1200 people in it and they're all a bunch of dummies just picking the biggest faves. hard time believing these people aren't getting as much counsel as they can.

 

[hedman]

i don't know how there's 1200 people in it and they're all a bunch of dummies just picking the biggest faves. hard time believing these people aren't getting as much counsel as they can.

Tigers, I'll make a friendly wager with you of let's say $25 or $50 amazon card that there is at least 8 people on NE.

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

To be honest i don't know any of the 12 others remaining - this is one of those very wide variety of participants - you may be right - maybe the others left are people asking the same questions i am - maybe they do even bet sports who knows - but yes most take whoever is the largest favorite that week - and we know that's not always the way to pick a winner.

I will be shocked if any lower than 8 pick NE - last week i was DEAD ON in predicting 10 out of 13 would be on NE - the other 3 though surprised me - they were all on Baltimore - i thought maybe those 3 would be on the Packers.

Which brings up something interesting - I am from Wisconsin - and most are from here or Illinois in the pool - the fact that the Giants beat the Packers might cause people to either a) believe in the Giants or b) despise them so much that they will avoid picking them - as most in the state want to see them go down!

I really think there could be 10 on NE and 3 on SF. But i am thinking maybe 1 on Giants and 1 on Balt is a possibility and few less on NE/SF.

I stand by believing in the 49ers after i dug into this game - too much supports them winning. I still am believing the Balt/NE should be closer to a pick - i know perception is NE by about a TD - but i see it much closer - Jack did a great job showing reasons why Balt should be taken VERY seriously - obviously he's a Ravens fan - but I think he did a great job showing the strength of taking the Ravens.

Sunday can't get here soon enough! I will post what people took for NE/Balt when the website shows it.

Oh and i do think i will put a small amount maybe $300 or $400 - on the Giants plus the points -be nice to get them +3 - as i could possibly win both! Leaning to doing that right now. And then hopefully SF wins and i can put in the major hedge next week

Thanks again for chiming in on this!

 

[jerbeek]

I agree with Tig3ers except that instead of hedging so much on Balt ML I would hedge some on Baltimore +7.5. Then in a best case scenario you get NE winning a close game and not losing your entrie hedge amount. Nice job surviving this long!

 

[tig3rs]

I agree with Tig3ers except that instead of hedging so much on Balt ML I would hedge some on Baltimore +7.5. Then in a best case scenario you get NE winning a close game and not losing your entrie hedge amount. Nice job surviving this long!

would agree, but the BAL ML is so high, you can't leave it out. they have a good chance of winning this game if they force a TO or two.

would totally be on board with $330 +7' and $100 +280

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

Wow - i just checked the website and ALL PICKS were shown - i do NOT remember it being like this last several weeks - but i'll take it - now i know EXACTLY what all are on - this is from the website:

Overall: Through Week 20

Week 1 Entries: 1204

Eliminated: 1191

Survivors: 13

Week 20 Summary

Expected Entries: 13

Actual Entries: 13

Eliminated: 0

Survivors: 0

Week 20 Pick Breakdown

NE - 6
NYG - 4
SF - 3

I think this is AWESOME for my SF pick - i cannot believe that 4 are on the NY Giants! And 6 on New England - zero on Baltimore. Needless to say i want Baltimore to beat NE which i think can happen.

That means in the late game, if SF wins, 4 at least are eliminated - so now it's clearer:

1) if balt wins, and SF wins, only 3 left next week
2) if NE wins, and SF wins, 9 are left this is the worst case if i do move on
3) if NE or Balt wins, and Giants win then obviously i'm out of the pool.

So it will either be playing for $4,000 (if 3 left) or $1,333 (if 9 left) after this week for the WORST CASE scenarios if those all split. It could get better for each of those - but this is the info i was looking for.

I'll see what happens and hedge some on the Giants - go Baltimore! Might throw $100 on the Ravnes at +600 to win the super bowl as well - seems to be a decent play...ok - hopefully after today only 3 remain - i think this worked out decent - as i'll put several hundred on the Giants so if Giants do prevail, i'll still come away with something

Enjoy the games should be great!

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

Decided to do these below - hopefully this will work out - more i looked i think these will make things interesting - we'll see how it comes out - hopefully still a shot to win it all or take a top 3 if Ravens & 49ers both win this week!

Plays:

1) Ravens +600 to win SB
Risk $150 to win $900

2) Ravens +250/Giants +110 moneyline parlay
Risk $150 to win $952

3) Giants +2
Risk $550 to win $500

Still rooting heavily for 49ers to move on - first things first - need those Ravens to win - that would open up alot of possibilities - this is what i decided on for now - we'll see if it was smart to hedge or not...

 

[tig3rs]

SHOW, how many of the 6 have this are their second NE pick?

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

3 teams have used NE twice now - so if NE wins, they cannot take them for super bowl

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

this was impossible to predict - i was shocked that 4 are on giants - heck that 7 are on 49ers/giants - but i like how it's distributed - go ravens, and then 49ers - and then down to 3 - really hope that's how it goes...

 

[The Jets Fan]

Good luck

 

[tig3rs]

this was impossible to predict - i was shocked that 4 are on giants - heck that 7 are on 49ers/giants - but i like how it's distributed - go ravens, and then 49ers - and then down to 3 - really hope that's how it goes...

i told you SF/NYG would be split. surprised not 1 took BAL

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

Absolutely brutal ending - the Evans drop and then misses an automatic kick - now the 49ers really need to come through - i realized that would leave 9 left, and 3 must be on the NFC, so i guess that means I would proably go w/ the favored AFC and know that worst case if other 6 took AFC and AFC won that would be $2K - should hav probably just held off on the hedging but if Giants win, i guess i net a few hundred

The perfect scenario was there - but just couldn't get it - too bad - go 49ers!

 

[tig3rs]

if the niners get you there, i'd go with em and assume you're on the minority side. leaving you $3k-$4k to hedge with... a lot better than ending up on the side with 5 others only giving you $2k to hedge with being down $850...

just sayin.

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

yep - first things first - need the 49ers to win

although who knows - if one other is on the NFC, then it would be 5 for NFC, 4 AFC - so that could backfire - it's impossible to predict what these people will do - still can't believe 4 on giants - game time - go 9ers

 

[tig3rs]

yep - first things first - need the 49ers to win

although who knows - if one other is on the NFC, then it would be 5 for NFC, 4 AFC - so that could backfire - it's impossible to predict what these people will do - still can't believe 4 on giants - game time - go 9ers

on em with ya.