March Boxing

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: -.75 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2
1 unit plays: 6-2 +.25
1/2 unit plays: 5-6 -3
Dogs: 3-7 even

Last year I had a category for big dogs of +200 or more, this year I will simply have a dog category for plays of +100 or more.

3/5
Garcia-Phillips over 9.5 -210 1/2 unit (loser)
Tapia over Archuletta -500 1 unit (loser)
Dog:
Tapia wins inside distance +270 to win 1/2 unit (loser)

3/6
Nishioka-Sahaprom over 11.5 -350 1 unit (winner)
Larios over Nakazato -350 1/2 unit (winner)
Dog:
Corrales wins inside distance +300 to win 1/2 unit (loser)
(As posted below, I also played Corrales at +145 (winner)

3/11 Dog:
Rahman-Cole under 9.5 +240 to win 1/2 unit (loser)

3/13
Markussen-Salem over 10.5 -148 1 unit (no contest)
Bredahl-Naka over 11.5 -148 1/2 unit (winner)

3/14
Holmes-Toygonbayev over 9.5 -220 1 unit (winner)
Campbell-Peden over 11.5 -120 1/2 unit (loser)

3/19 Dog:
Burton over Diaz +275 to win 1/2 unit (loser)

3/20
Dieppa-Guardia over 10.5 -200 1/2 unit (loser)
Morel-Rojas over 11.5 -165 1/2 unit (winner)

3/27
Barrett-Guinn over 9.5 -250 1/2 unit (winner)
Dog:
Barrett over Guinn +350 to win 1/2 unit (winner)

More to come as lines become available. If you want the logic to any of my picks just ask.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Adding

3/5
Garcia-Phillips over 9.5 -210 1/2 unit
Tapia over Archuletta -500 1 unit

Yes I did say I was done playing heavy favorites, but the line on Tapia is an absolute steal. He's fighting a total scrub in his home state of New Mexico. This line should move in a big way.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Adding

3/6
Larios over Nakazato -350 1/2 unit

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Adding

3/5
Tapia wins inside distance +270 to win 1/2 unit

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Adding

3/14
Holmes-Toygonbayev over 9.5 -220 1/2 unit

Pulling Corrales +145, going with Corrales inside distance +300 only. If this fight goes the distance Casamayor will probably win.

gl bl

 

[Flipper13]

Boxlocks...

Are you playing Corrales to win by decision???

I played him just to win at +165....Both fighters will be at the top of their game...I know Diego is prepared for anything Casamayor can throw at him. Especially with Goosen no longer in Casa's corner and now in Diego's corner.

I almost flew out from Vegas for the fight but the Mrs gave me too much grief...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I played Corrales +145 and Corrales wins inside distance +300 a couple of weeks ago, but I'm only claiming the inside distance play for my record. If this fight goes the distance there's a good chance Casamayor will win. He will work the jab, throw and land more punches, and use lateral movement to control the action. But if he tries to trade with Corrales it's over, even if he doesn't trade he might get caught with a shot that ends the fight. I hear Diego is in excellent shape and has been working on cutting off the ring, thats exactly what he needs to do in this fight.

Btw, "wins inside the distance" is the opposite of "wins by 12 round decision"

gl bl

 

[Flipper13]

Boxlocks you hear right about Diego...If Casa somehow wins this fight, he would have beaten Diego at the top of his game...Diego is in the greatest shape of his life...At plus money I love my chances of cashing my ticket...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Good luck on Corrales, sorry to hear you won't be watching it live. This is one fight I would love to be at.

Btw, its good to see a new face in Off The Wall boxing, feel free to pop in here whenever you have a take.

bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I'm pulling Nishioka +165 and making the Sahaprom-Nishioka over 11.5 a 1 unit play as originaly posted. I'm also making Tapia -500 a 1 unit play as originaly posted. My final plays for the weekend are posted above.

gl bl

 

[THE KOD]

B0X

Just getting around to look at boxing some.

Great record last year. Looks like your off to a good start.

One thing about Tapia isnt that the guy with all the tatts ?

I thought Tapia was about 40 years old by now ?

I had a question. How do you determine the over/unders ?
Do you look at KO records and how far back ? If they used to
be KO punchers does that change much with age ?

Good luck tonight.

KOD

 

[gardenweasel]

tapia

tapia

isn`t the tapia of old....he was slower and a little pudgy in his last fight...

while i wouldn`t personally lay -500,if tapia can`t get by a poor,slow archuletta,who is becoming an opponent,then it`s time to say adios.....


archuletta couldn`t beat emmanuel lucero.......and if you saw him against manny pacquaio,you know how amateurish lucero is...

as a matter of fact,he fails every time he steps up.....

but,at this point in his career,tapia could hit the wall at any time...

that`s why -500,for me,is not even a consideration...of course,-500 is never a consideration for me...

maybe parlay tapia with something you like to even up the odds a little?.....

he should win...his wife is VERY,VERY careful with johnny`s career...

that`s how he built such a great rep....by avoiding every serious contender for a decade...except danny romero...and romero has been exposed...another nice "gamble" by tapia`s better half....

try and find the true top caliber guys tapia has beaten in his career.... they`re hard to find...

 

[seymour]

Thanks for the plays and good luck.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Tapia just turned 37 and yes he's one of the guys with multiple tattoos. Everything g.w. said is true, but let me add a few things. Tapia's pro. losses were to Barrera, Ayala, and Ayala again. Both Ayala fights were very close decisions. He recently won a unanimous decision (contravercial) over Manuel Medina who set a record for punches thrown in a featherweight fight and is 3 times the fighter Archuleta is. Archuleta has never beat a quality opponent and just stepped up in weight, his only fight at featherweight was a 7 round tko loss to prospect Rocky Juarez. If Tapia shows up for this fight it could get ugly. The old Tapia would have stopped a guy of Archuleta's caliber, lets see how much he has left.

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

tapia loses

tapia loses

a split nod......tough break......the guy must have seriously hit the wall..

you`ll get `em...keep up the solid work...your record speaks for itself...

 

[gardenweasel]

good job

good job

on larios and the over in nishioka/shahprom...i had the latter myself(laid -350 for the first time in forever...this was their 4th fight!....as i`m sure you knew)......

diego wins by decision....who woulda thunk it...certainly not me....very surprising.........

more coming up.....g.l..bud...

 

[Flipper13]

Diego wins!!!

Who would have thought the fighter would out box the the boxer??? Obviously having Goosen switch camps paid off MAJOR dividends for Diego.

 

[gardenweasel]

mcgirt disappointed

mcgirt disappointed

close decision for corrales seemed about right to me....

i`m beginning to believe that these wunderkind-ex-boxer-trainers are way overrated....

i saw floyd mayweather sr give absolutely ridiculous advice to rahman vs john ruiz...i mean downright stupid advice.....

and now,mcgirt had casamayor running for pretty much the first 8 rounds....he had the better boxer....granted,corrales` jab was a master stroke by goossen....but,all corrales does is chase guys....you,imo,have to stop occasionally and back corrales up...get his respect....like casamayor did in the first fight.... you had a guy that beat corrales to the punch time and again in the first fight....the guy is 4-6 inches shorter and has a reach disadvantage of 3 to 4 inches....and he`s running around outside for 8 rounds?

regardless of what ridiculous al bernstein said(the guy is horrible),casamayor is the quicker, slicker guy.....and when he stood his ground or backed corrales up,he was in control....it showed from around the ninth on.....

i don`t think casamayor "set down" and threw 10 punches in the first 8 rounds.....everything was thrown backing up....with nothing on the shots....

when they fell hopelessly behind,with the better boxer and the absolute wrong game plan,they decided to do what worked in the first fight....and it worked again....but,to late...

mcgirt gets all the credit for turning gatti around...but who has gatti fought since mcgirt took over?.....not exactly the creme de la creme...

i`m not convinced with mcgirt....i think they had a very poor gameplan....

credit to goossen and corrales....but,they got considerable help from a poor mcgirt gameplan...


edit link by admin:

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[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Adding

3/19 Dog
Burton over Diaz +275 to win 1/2 unit

And adding a 1/2 unit to the Holmes-Toygonbaev over and the Barrett-Guinn over, making them 1 unit plays.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

First Tapia loses to Frankie Archuleta, and then Rahman almost loses to Al Cole???

Rahman won a very close decision, 96-94 all. I played the under (small) thinking this would be a coming out party for Rahman. In my opinion Rahman needed a ko in this fight to redeem himself. Cole was stopped in the first round by Cory Sanders, in the 6th round by Juan Gomez, and in the 10th by Michael Grant. But Rahman couldn't stop Cole (who is 39 years old btw) and damn near lost a decision to him. Looks like Tapia and Rahman will be looking for new jobs on Monday.

Frankie Archuleta and Al Cole....you've gotta be shittin me.