Round 1 plays (4pts):
Jason Dufner to beat Henrik Stenson -111 @ Bet365
Despite the recent controversy about 'Dufnering', I expect him to be making the headlines for the right reasons this week. He was the co-leader (with Fred Couples) after 36 holes last year, so with top-30 finishes in both his previous starts at Augusta National, this is a course that clearly suits his game. Stenson showed great form over his last two events to earn his place in this event for the eight successive year, but he has missed the cut in two of the last three years and in his 22 rounds at Augusta National, he is yet to break 70.
Jason Dufner to beat Bill Haas +100 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Unibet and BetVictor]
Dufner dominates the h2h against Stenson 7-2-1 in strokeplay events since the start of last season and it is similar story in this matchup: 14-5-3. Unlike Stenson, Haas has made the cut in three previous visits, but like Stenson he yet yet to break 70 on this course (Dufner has done so twice in eight rounds). Similar to the first play and at better odds, Dufner is backed in this play.
Nick Watney to beat Jason Day -105 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Bet365]
Like Dufner, Watney's performances have been a little under-par this year, but he has missed just once missed cut and this is his tenth event. His record at Augusta National is good - he has made the cut in all five visits - whereas Day has been hit-and-miss - 2nd two years ago, but withdrawing last year when six-over-par. But these are two players with different tournament trajectories which point to backing Watney at this stage of the event: whereas Day has a 10-3-2 h2h record against Watney in the final round since the start of 2012, in the first round, it is Watney who leads Day 13-3-4 over the same period.
