Master's

[Myron]

Who do you like in the Masters?

I went with 3 bets so far.

Sergio Garcia to win at 14-1 for 3 units

Scott McCarron e/w at 50-1 for 3 units

Rocco Mediate e/w at 100-1 for 2 units.

Note that if you are betting to show, Bet365 offers show odds at 1/4 for a TOP 5 finish.

 

[bettingmad]

It's not like me to have backed 3 before an event starts... but the Masters isn't like other events and has done me a few favours in the past...

J M Olazabal 80/1 & 66/1

V Singh 33/1

E Els 18/1

Olazabal is the biggest stake. I Think the best available now is 33/1 with Stan James. The 33/1 Vijay was available this morning but then cut to 25/1 and later 20/1.

 

[rio]

At the start of the year I felt there were only a handful of guys capable of winning the Masters, and it was the usual suspects :

Woods, Duval, Mickelson, Singh and Love ( who's game I cannot abide ) ; and I had it in mind to keep an eye on Toms, Garcia and Olly.

I've not seen anything that would change this view other than to add Olly to this list of 5. Toms and Garcia have not quite done enough this term for me.

Woods is rarely my kind of price ( and probably never will be ) and Davis Love has to be consistently the worst 'value ' golfer in the history of golf betting, is on the slide and cannot be trusted. This leaves Duval, Mickelson, Singh and Olly.

The 66/1 taken by some about Olly has to be the bet of the year and even at 25/1 has to worth a play. I would back Mickelson or Singh at 20/1 and above; and it would not be the biggest surprise in the world to see some 33's Duval before the off.

 

[bettingmad]

Rio,
If you want some 28/1 Vijay go to Stan James.

 

[Ian]

Have followed the same thread as previous years on the Majors - backing players at big antepost odds when they hit form - have ended up with
Olazabal 66/1 (who hasn't!)
McCarron 120/1
Mediate 160/1 and a bit more at 125/1 (still that at Surrey)
Cabrera 80/1
Dimarco 44/1
The last 2 are probably available at bigger but I will not have any more bets as the Value has now disappeared

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Changes at Augusta this year
hole/yards added
#1 +25yards
#7 +45
#8+20 / bunker enlarged and takes 320 drive uphill to carry it
#9 +20yds
#10 +10
#11 +35
#13 +25
#14 +35
#18 +65 fairway bunker emlarged
In 97 masters Tiger never hit more than 7iron to any par 4.
In practice rd with Omeara few months back he hit 6 iron on 1,9.14 and 18 and 5iron into 11. Omeara hit 2 iron into 11 and fairway wood to 18. Nick Price was adament in saying no one that doesn't hit it 300yd has a chance. Should help woods,sergio,howell,singh oly and els should kill faxon,langer,price and monty among others.
Have to laugh at the stupidity of Barkleys remark that they are trying to "Tiger Proof"it. If they want to Tiger proof anything shorten it and reduce par fives. His rank on birdies this year par 4 63rd/par 3's 101. Post from few months back on Tiger says it all.
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=23365
This years matches involving Tiger 3-0
AT&T Singh +170 72 holes
Genuity 1st rd Singh +140
Tiger +110 over Mick Players Champ

 

[rio]

Thanks BM

 

[MAJOR MARTY]

KENNY PERRY IS A MAN TO WATCH IN THE MASTERS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDITIONAL YARDAGE. LONG KNOCKERS WILL PREVAIL. HE HAS HAD A GREAT START THIS SEASON, AND SHOULD BE PRIMED FOR A MAJOR!!

 

[Stanley]

Stats are now up on my site for the Masters. Just click on the 'expand all' link in the left-hand frame to display the menu. Doesn't include this week's events, of course, but may be more useful to have now rather than wait for Monday

 

[steved]

Can anyone find more than 80/1 about Harrington...?? I know, he might always come second, but that will do me at these prices...
He has a good write up in UK paper today..seems remarkably confident for him...not sure if good sign, but doing alright at Duluth, so we can see for ourselves to some degree...

 

[nomad]

Many thanks Stanley for those early stats.

Weather forecast seems to indicate plenty of thunder storms next week.

Seems like they changed their minds about those thunder storms and are now forecasting fine weather again.

 

[BOBBYW]

"THE MASTERS"

"THE MASTERS"

DEFINITELY MY FAVORITE OF THE FOUR MAJORS. CONSIDERING OLY FOR SURE WITH HIS 2 JACKETS AND HAVE A GUT FEELING ON ROBERTS BUT I CAN BE TALKED OUT OF IT.

 

[Stanley]

Course: Augusta National Golf Club, Augusta, Georgia
Yardage: 7270
Par: 72 (four par-fives)
Greens: Bentgrass - 6,150 sq.ft (Tour average: 6,000 sq.ft)

GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet

Weather Forecast

Best Players Last 10 Years

Past Winners:
2001 - Tiger Woods
2000 - Vijay Singh
1999 - Jose Maria Olazabal
1998 - Mark O'Meara
1997 - Tiger Woods
1996 - Nick Faldo
1995 - Ben Crenshaw
1994 - Jose Maria Olazabal
1993 - Bernhard Langer
1992 - Fred Couples

 

[steved]

Stanley, looking at the course changes and comments made by various players, we are looking for long hitters, with good GIR stats, and good putting. This is what you have in your Course Compatability stats. However, the reason Harrington was confident was that he reckons you will need a good short game as well, as shots to greens will be 5-6 iron instead of wedges, as DTB mentions already.
Do you think it worth running your stats with higher emphasis on GIR? Does that change ranking much?

 

[Stanley]

Steved, if I increase the GIR weighting, then Goosen would be ranked #1 and Mickelson would be primary player to fall in the rankings.

The changes tend to be fairly small, but you get a good rule of thumb by saying that if their GIR ranking is worse than their overall ranking they will not be as well-suited to the new Augusta as others, according to your reasoning.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Some links of interest including course changes and local papers.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/augusta/tour/2002/no1/
http://www.augustachronicle.com/

 

[steved]

Thanks, Stanley and DTB. I thought Goosen looked good, as his GIR was 75% before Bell South. Can he win again? He certainly looks to have the patience as well as the stats..
While we are on news stories, here is story with quotes from Harrington, I think it was in Golf Monthly as well.
www.observer.co.uk/sport/story/0,6903,680331,00.html

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays:

Sergio Garcia to win 18/1 e.w. @ UKBetting or Sports.com
Not a very impressive course history, but much more mature than in previous years and the experience of being the favorite to win the 2001 U.S. Open with 18 holes to play will be of great benefit should he contend this week. The course changes should suit him. There is now more emphasis on good driving rather than power driving and he is the best driver on the PGA Tour. Currently ranked 3rd in total driving, he ranked 1st last year and 3rd in 1999. With a deft a touch around the green as Olazabal, this really should be an excellent opportunity to gain his 2nd Tour win of the season.

Vijay Singh to win 25/1 e.w. @ Heathorns
With the course changes ruling out a shorter-hitter, Singh is one who remains one of the dwindling number of contenders this week. He has good course form, winning the event two years ago, and has finally won again on the PGA Tour - in the Houston Open two weeks ago - to get that monkey off his back. He is playing well and skipped the Honda Classic to get some practice on the new Augusta. Despite the course changes, he equaled the course record 63 during that week.

Davis Love to win 66/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler, Heathorns, UKBetting or Sports.com
Okay, this breaks the 1st rule of betting golf: never bet on Davis Love ... but he is very capable of winning this event. He claimed after his first round last week that he was striking the ball well and it was just bad breaks that meant he shot 42-30 in the first round. He just had too many self-destruct holes last week - alongside eleven birdies, he had two double-bogeys, a triple-bogey and a quadruple bogey in the opening 36 holes. He missed the cut, but he did the same in the Buick Open, the week before he won the PGA Championship in 1997. Typical Davis Love. He played injured last year and took a two-month break before playing in the U.S. Open even though he could hardly swing at the start of the week. He contended all week and finished 7th. He had another two-month break after the NEC Invitational because of his injured neck and finished 4th in the Invensys Classic on his return. Typical Davis Love. With finishes of 2nd, 7th, 7th, 33rd, 2nd and 7th from 1995 to 2001 before playing injured last year and being on record as saying "I love it" about the course changes, Davis Love could have a typical week and win this event or a typical week and bogey the first hole and never be seen again!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Having made several plays earlier at odds not available now will defer any official outrights till cut.Will take a look at course setup 1st couple of days.Rain projected wed thur and fri and should put short hitters at additional disadvantage.Hope they do not resort to lift clean and place. Been reading all week how this course favors right to left flight but faders like Duval and Calc sure have had success?Figure changes will benefit Tiger and Mick most.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Little help from Euro mates
Anyone know how Clarke fairs in the rain and what ball flight he hits?

 

[steved]

Not sure how Clarke hits the ball, but the rain will cause problems for his cigar, so not sure if he will like it.......