Mercedes Champ

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Furyk
1 unit win 15/1 @ Bet and Win
May add place wager on same when available but don't think you'll get better than 12/1 win odds anywhere else on player who has camped out in Hawaii since Grand Slam and course and current form excellent.

 

[smoothie]

. . .

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Was in,then cut and re-entered thru back door

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Yep Smoothie Basically that is correct.

 

[smoothie]

. . .

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Furyk 15 win only SIA

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

That didn't last long Might have take a little place action if not for the drop in odds and "1/5" odds 4 places

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

72 holes ties lose @ Gamebookers
Furyk +100 over Love

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Jim Furyk to win 12/1 e.w. available generally

No surprises here. Furyk has been a selection in this event for the past two years, though little chance of getting the 30/1 available two years ago. He has won in Hawaii three times, including this event in 2001, and likes this course so much that he has a house next to the course. No surprise that he has finished in the top-10 every year since 1997 and he certainly shouldn't be out of it this year.

Retief Goosen to win 16/1 e.w. @ Tote [1/5 1-2-3-4-5]
Maybe it's the ability to spend the close season in a warm climate, but Goosen does tend to start new seasons in very good form. In 2001, he finished 2nd in two of his first strokeplay events of the year; in 2002, he finished in the top-5 in four of his first five starts, including two wins; and in 2003, he finished in the top-five in four of his first five starts. One of those was in this event and the player who finished 1st and 3rd in his last two PGA Tour events of 2003 looks very capable of catching out the other players who will be rather rusty.

Kenny Perry to finish in the top-four 7/1 @ Centrebet
Perry should certainly be rusty, but he was very impressive when finishing 3rd on his debut in this event two years ago. Despite a cold putter, he only finished one shot behind Garcia. His incredible run of form in the middle of last summer may seem a long time ago, but these odds look rather large for someone who can compete at this level and has done so on this course.

=====

Perry previously posted as 8/1 at Olympic, but they only pay three places this week.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Stanley....I think Oly is only paying out the top 3!

 

[Stanley]

Sh!t ... you're right

Not a good start to the season

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

I almost did the same thing.


Added
Weir 25 (.75ew)
Goosen 17 (.75ew)
Furyk 12 (.75ew) to go with 1.5u @ 15-1 win only

Campbell at 25 looks big as well but can only play so many. Plus I dont think he has played this course.

 

[redsfan]

Stanley

Centrebet go 7-1 top 4 - if you're quick - you may want to edit your site?

I like the new services on your site - well worth ?50 of anybody's money in my view

 

[Stanley]

Cheers redsfan

Thanks to TU's post, I had everything amended inside one hour. Don't want anyone to make the same mistake as I did :nooo:

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding 72 holes
Goose-130 over Campbell @ 5dimes
Perry - 111 over Scott @ B&W (ties lose)

IMHO putting is key on islands where you find the roughest grain in the world. Taking to vets with experiece against Scott (1st trip to islands) and Campbell who despite 1st time at Mercedes did play twice at Sony and appeared to struggle with grain ranking above 50th in putting both trips----a neat little addition to stat base Stan.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 pts unless stated):

Mike Weir to beat Chad Campbell -115 @ Five Dimes
Campbell will undoubtedly be reappearing in this event next year, but not courtesy of a win this week. His accurate play is not suited to this wide-open course and he has struggled on his two previous visits to Hawaii. This will be his debut on this course and he should struggle to beat a player as consistent as Weir and who has already competed on this course three times already.
(available generally)

Mike Weir to beat Darren Clarke -115 @ Centrebet [3 units]
Just don't see Clarke in the same class of player as Weir, or least week-in, week-out. He finished 46th and 19th on this course in the Kapalua International in 1995 and 1996 and has no other experience of Hawaiian conditions. Clarke finished 15 shots behind Weir in their last competitive event, the Target World Challenge, and a similar margin may very well be repeated this week.
(also available at Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BetInternet and Intertops)

Kenny Perry to beat Darren Clarke -115 @ Olympic [3 units]
Perry also finished ahead of Clarke in the Target World Challenge and is also tipped to repeat the feat. With an impressive 3rd place two years ago, the outright selection looks set for a decent week this week, while Clarke should be no better than mid-table.
(available generally)

Kenny Perry to beat Adam Scott -110 @ BetInternet [4.5 units]
This will be a steep learning course for the young Australian. After one impressive and one indifferent event in Australia last month, he will be making his debut in Hawaii this week. He could easily struggle on the vast and very slow greens at Kapalua and there really is no substitute for course experience. Backing the outright selection again.
(also available at BetandWin)

Fred Couples to beat Jonathan Kaye -111 @ NordicBet
At 66/1, Couples was a tempting selection for the outrights, particularly given his record on this course: 17th (1987), 5th (1992), 1st (1993), 1st (1994), 9th (1995), 2nd (1996) and 10th (1999). However, he looks a much safer bet against Kaye who has never played this course and has finished 27th, 28th, mc and mc in four attempts at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Rory Sabbatini to beat Shaun Micheel -130 @ Aces
Buoyed by partnering Tim Clark to victory in the World Cup in November, this could be one of Sabbatini's better weeks. I can't see him repeating his 2nd place finish in the 2001 event, but he will surely compete more than Micheel who has never played this course and has missed the cut in four of six attempts at the Sony Open in Hawaii.
(also available at Olympic, Pinnacle and Five Dimes)

Kirk Triplett to beat Shaun Micheel -120 @ Five Dimes
Will also side with Triplett to beat Micheel given his considerable experience in Hawaii. He has played on this course eight times and finished in the top-20 on six of those occasions. Not one to win this event, but certainly much less likely to finish last.

 

[lal2000]

Outrights (1 unit - all e.w.)

A Scott 40-1 @ Bet 365
J Huston 40-1 @ SkyBet
K Perry 25-1 @ SkyBet
R Sabbatini 66-1 @ Ladbrokes
B Tway 100-1 @ Sporting Odds
K Triplett 100-1 @ Sporting Odds

Good Luck to everyone in 2004!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding 72 holes
Maru -110 over Kaye @ 365 (ties lose)

Kaye 3 trips to islands(sony) not impressive with cuts past 2--Maru injury from last year no longer concern.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
and adding 72 holes @ Cascade
Jacobsen -120 over Stadler

 

[british bulldog]

I thought I would come and join you guys (girls) this season. First off may I congratulate you all :clap: :thumb: and also :hail to your efforts over the last few seasons.

My plays will come with no analysis as time constraints with many other sports take up enough time all ready. Also I am in the process of putting a sports betting site together as well as working for a few others. My work can be seen and other sites which includes plays of many sports (including American sports) and articles. Enough of this, lets get the plays posted.

All plays will be posted as either Win or Each Way with terms provided. All odds will be generally available from atleast 3 books when posting, so by others shopping around, profits could be increased or losses reduced.

I know Stanley keeps a running account so golf results will appear in my Community pages everytime Stanley gives an update.


FRONT RUNNERS (< 20/1)

GOOSEN ............ 16/1 1 pt E/W (1/4 1,2,3,4)
SINGH ................ 7/1 1 pt E/W (1/4 1,2,3,4)
FURYK ................ 12/1 1 pt E/W (1/4 1,2,3,4)


MIDDLE OF THE FIELD (20/1 -to- < 40/1)


LONG SHOTS (40/1 >)

HOUSTON ........... 66/1 1/2 pt E/W (1/4 1,2,3,4)
COUPLES ........... 66/1 1/2 pt E/W (1/4 1,2,3,4)

 

[hoss]

BB, Been trying to back Goosen + Huston myself - where are those prices - best I can find is 14 and 50??

Thanks in advance

hoss

 

[lostinamerica]

Retief Goosen(14/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Goosen is the player that since about September of 2003 I had designs on taking right out of the box in January of 2004. Stan has noted his propensity for contending early in the season. When he busted out and won in November at the Chrysler Championship, I was liking the fact it meant his season would be starting at the Mercedes Championships. I think his overall fabulous game is well suited to the winds, slopes and grasses at Kapalua, although last year was marked by some wild driving, less than spectacular putting, and untimely pull-hooked iron shots. I think his fairly enigmatic demeanor on the course most reminds me of Chad Campbell, although I have too often seen him lose focus or confidence after a run of adverisity, More importantly, I believe (without knowing) that some of his energy and focus was directed off the course last year with the birth of his first child, Leo, on 3/8/03. With that happy milestone behind him, and with the run up to his playing a leading role during the President's Cup in South Africa, I like the prospects for Goosen having his priorities, preparation and game well in order to launch the 2004 season in a gathering of elite players.

GL