Mercedes Championship

[sharky17]

Couple of plays for the 3rd Round:

DANIEL CHOPRA (+117) over ANGEL CABRERA

CHARLES HOWELL III (+170) over VIJAY SINGH

Good Luck Guys.

 

[JimmyTime]

3rd Round Matchups

Hoffman -105 over Austin
George McNeil +130 over Verplank

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (1pt)

Stephen Ames to beat Mike Weir +103 @ Pinnacle
Backing Ames to win the battle of the Canadians. He's been in Hawaii since 20th December with his family (playing golf, not just on holiday), doesn't have to defend a tournament lead and has remained in the top-3 in six out of seven times that he has headed into the 3rd round in 2nd or 3rd place

Stephen Ames to beat Scott Verplank -105 @ Five Dimes
A better performance from Verplank yesterday, but not enough to warrant favouritism against Ames who has been much more impressive

Brandt Snedeker to beat Jonathan Byrd -117 @ Pinnacle
Snedeker's driver face has cracked and his putter face has need to be re-squared this week and still he's 4th. With no equipment failures today he should beat Byrd who has never beaten 70 in eight attempts when 2nd/3rd after two rounds

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Jonathan Byrd -110 @ Five Dimes
Calc: "At the Merrill Lynch Shootout with Woody Austin that we won, and Tiger's deal, I just hit it great. ... I got over here. I still kept hitting it good." Calc's problem on Thursday was that it was wet; it was dry yesterday and he hit every green in regulation. Today it should be dry again

Daniel Chopra to beat Charles Howell -105 @ Five Dimes
Basically opposing Howell who is struggling with his irons and is poorly motivated when out of contention: in his last 12 events when 9-11 shots behind the leader after 2 rounds, he has improved his leaderboard position only 3 times and never shot lower than 71

 

[abc]

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Jonathan Byrd -110 @ Five Dimes
Calc: "At the Merrill Lynch Shootout with Woody Austin that we won, and Tiger's deal, I just hit it great. ... I got over here. I still kept hitting it good." Calc's problem on Thursday was that it was wet; it was dry yesterday and he hit every green in regulation. Today it should be dry again

:scared I would love to see a stat on if a guy shoots the low round of the day, then how much higher does he shoot the following day. Anyway good luck on all of your other plays... Not this one :lol: As we speak boo sinks a 20 footer to save bogey :mj07:

 

[sports student]

3rd round at 5 dimes:

Ames -105 over Verplank

 

[abc]

Looks like boo found his game :scared

 

[abc]

Really nice stretch for Sabbo..

Anyone catch that interview with Boo :mj07:

 

[abc]

Nice Shank by byrd...

Quietly Furyk and Vijay are sneaking up the board.

Sabbo could have easily birdied the last 6 holes(One of which he 3 putted from 7 feet).

Ok have a goodnight fellas..No 4th round plays, I have a rule that I can't add late night plays after ive been drinking :mj06:

 

[abc]

Gonna be close Stan with Byrd and Calc.. Mark looks hurt although he didnt on that 1 putt

 

[Stanley]

Nice 3-putt on the last hole Calc

 

[abc]

Nice 3-putt on the last hole Calc

Really bad break, he hit a great chip shot that somehow rolled out like 40 ft (even though it landed on the fringe). Either way Byrd made an easy birdie on 18. Hate going against ya, get em next time. :toast:

 

[Stanley]

A couple questions
Are the #'s derived from Elliots observation on conditions?-

No. The historical weather data is the weather data recorded/maintained at airports. As such, it is not the exact weather conditions faced on the course, but as most local airports are no more than 25 miles from the course, it is a reasonable approximation. Of the data that is available, I take 5 readings per day ... 9am, 11am, 1pm, 3pm and 5pm and in the online database, the weather data is the averages of those five daily readings. As a result of these potential deviations from actual, real-time course weather conditions , the data is only searchable in ranges in the online database. The use of daily averages and the weather data being from the local airport probably account for the differences in your more precise data than mine.

What factors are used to tabulate

I presume that you are referring to the player profiles rather than the weather database queries, but let me know if not. An information button will be put next to each category when it is complete, but here are the explanations ...

At best in hot conditions: player's average score* in last five seasons when daily average temperature is greater than 80?F vs. player's average score* in all events in last five seasons

Very good player in wet weather: player's average score* in last five seasons when rain is reported in at least three of the five daily observations (see above) vs. player's average score* in all events in last five seasons

Excellent wind player: player's average score* in last five seasons when daily average wind speed is greater than 15mph vs. player's average score* in all events in last five seasons

*"average score" is the average 'adjusted' score, not actual score (see below)

How do several of players have better scoring ave in wind than in all tourneys?

The calculations are based average of my "adjusted scores", not actual scores. So if field quality (measured using Sagarin index) is 72, the average score by all players is 74 and player A shoots 68, his "adjusted score" is 72 - 74 + 68 = 66.

This way, his actual score of 68 is more impressive if weather conditions are poor (the average score by all players will be high) and field quality is high (lower Sagarin index). This enables scores to be compared across different days (i.e. different weather conditions) and different events/Tours (i.e different field quality).

 

[abc]

Been drinking pretty heavily.. just wanted to point out that

After rd 1.. 2 guys shot 68.. they both followed it up with 72's
After rd 2 there was a 66 which was followed by a 71
and the 67's were followed up by a 68 70 and 71

I would say from my 2 years of capping the guy who goes low, hardly ever follows it up. I'm not sure why, just go back to last years 61 - 63 rounds and see what happened the next time out

 

[Whalers Rule]

Fourth round plays 5dimes and Pinnacle

Leonard +105 over Weir
Ames -105 over Verplank
Flesch +105 over Watney
Howell -105 over Calc
McNeiil -110 over Ogilvie
Also like Weekley and Choi in their respective two balls

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

No. The historical weather data is the weather data recorded/maintained at airports. As such, it is not the exact weather conditions faced on the course, but as most local airports are no more than 25 miles from the course, it is a reasonable approximation. Of the data that is available, I take 5 readings per day ... 9am, 11am, 1pm, 3pm and 5pm and in the online database, the weather data is the averages of those five daily readings. As a result of these potential deviations from actual, real-time course weather conditions , the data is only searchable in ranges in the online database. The use of daily averages and the weather data being from the local airport probably account for the differences in your more precise data than mine.



I presume that you are referring to the player profiles rather than the weather database queries, but let me know if not. An information button will be put next to each category when it is complete, but here are the explanations ...

At best in hot conditions: player's average score* in last five seasons when daily average temperature is greater than 80?F vs. player's average score* in all events in last five seasons

Very good player in wet weather: player's average score* in last five seasons when rain is reported in at least three of the five daily observations (see above) vs. player's average score* in all events in last five seasons

Excellent wind player: player's average score* in last five seasons when daily average wind speed is greater than 15mph vs. player's average score* in all events in last five seasons

*"average score" is the average 'adjusted' score, not actual score (see below)



The calculations are based average of my "adjusted scores", not actual scores. So if field quality (measured using Sagarin index) is 72, the average score by all players is 74 and player A shoots 68, his "adjusted score" is 72 - 74 + 68 = 66.

This way, his actual score of 68 is more impressive if weather conditions are poor (the average score by all players will be high) and field quality is high (lower Sagarin index). This enables scores to be compared across different days (i.e. different weather conditions) and different events/Tours (i.e different field quality).

Thanks Stan- Exactly what I wanted--my main question was how you computated the adjusted score on wind.I like your method.


My way very basic--just kept tabs of events with wind--factored out scores of players on particular day where they were aided by little wind in am.
Scored them on each individual tourney to keep other factors equal--then did consensus at end of year.
Biggest bonus is had tracked only limited amount of players and that was very time consuming--and would not have continued on up and comers--now I get entire field with at glance--thank you-again.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Historically throughout the years been tough going on Islands for most--as little goes true to form--however very modest winds today and should come down to putting these greens so will venture out on a couple both @ -110

Sport / Period: PGA Golf / Game
Line:
Jim Furyk (4th Rnd) 1/6/2008 5:10:01 PM - (EST)
-110
Opponent: Vijay Singh (4th Rnd)

Sport / Period: PGA Golf / Game
Line:
George McNeill (4th Rnd) 1/6/2008 4:00:01 PM - (EST)
-110
Opponent: Joe Ogilvie (4th Rnd)

 

[sports student]

4th round at 5 dimes:

Ames -105 over Verplank
campbell +106 over Cabrera

Ames 12-1 to win

GL everybody

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Sure am glad to see your return SS. Looking forward to your input.

 

[abc]

Gonna try this one. Small 1/2 unit bet. ( I love these late tee times..) This is the smallest wager of the week; not that confident.
Sabbotini -121 over Verplank (Fourth Round) 5 dimes

Rory hit every green yesterday and could have actually shot a lot lower. Last year he had a great final rd scoring average. Worst case scenario I start the year off 0 - 2 on Rory. :142smilie

 

[sharky17]

4th Round Matchups (@Pinnacle):

CHARLES HOWELL III (-112) over MARK CALCAVECCHIA --> I have been putting a lot of my eggs in Howell's basket this week, but I didn't like the way Calc was hobbling around near the end of Saturday night's round.

DANIEL CHOPRA (+103) over JONATHAN BYRD --> Both guys playing pretty well, but have to go with Chopra's confidence right now.

Good Luck Guys.