Mercedes Championships

[Shaker]

Hey everybody

How bad might the weather be?
If it's OK I was thinking the -110 on Singh + Garcia to hit over 30.5 GIR might be worth playing.

Last year they hit 34 in round 1, 31 in round 2, 31 in round 3 and 30 in round 4.

Hear what Dogs says but think those fears will prove unfounded ... however I know you ignore him at your peril.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Whats up my friend or mate I should say
What a welcome addition to our little crew. Nice to have you and looking forward to your input.

Was a little timid on stepping out on girs today--will have a look at new set up this evening. Don't know how much rain they got today but pretty damp already. Might be lc&p which would bode well with overs if not could get some funky breaks with mud on ball and in drizzle and wind would lean to unders--most course in on slopes and drains well --however all in all hought Mike's #'s were pretty much on the button.

 

[Shaker]

Thanks DTB.

My favourite (favorite for you guys? ) matchup this week is Calc over Lonard at -138 (FiveDimes).

Despite the prohibitive odds I had to have a pop as I make them at complete opposites of the field when considering course compatibiliy. Think everything here (bar the physical demands possibly) looks to suit Calc down to the ground but I'm sure Lonard heavily favours small greens, which suit his good iron play and don't so much punish his ropey putting. I have Lonard as playing events with greens over 6700? ft seven times in the last 2 seasons and he has finished 48th, 68th, 70th and MC * 4 ... all with similarly poor PA ranks.

 

[c20916]

I'll give it a go this year in the fourm posting mostly 18 hole matchups:

1 for today:

O'Hair -.5 ov Bohn +104 2 units

 

[jetset]

JetSet Matchups

JetSet Matchups

Slocum -25 over Petrovic
Lonard - 20 Browne
Furyk -25 Campbell
Toms -20 Campbell
Crane -10 Choi
Toms -25 Choi
Crane -10 Leonard
Purdy -25 Gamez

 

[Agent 0659]

Agent

Any specific reason you are taking Vaughn Taylor, I know Purdy came on strong. Had an inside guy on the tour tell me that he is expecting big things from Ted this year, whether or not that comes to fruition this week or in 06 is to be determined but just looking for some analysis on this one.

Good luck in your plays

LTW2

Taylor with an 8th place finish last year, and I really like his game. He was only first time-participant to finish among the top-10, Taylor 63rd in scoring while Purdy 70th and there is no cut this week. I do like Purdys golf swing though and he might just have a big year :mj14:

 

[Shaker]

Luckily my respect for DTB is such that I refrained from the GIR play yesterday. Haven't checked all the results but certainly Singh/Furyk fell short and with that wind I'd be pretty sure they all did?

Any ideas on today's GIRs or birdies DTB?
I've looked but it's tough to see an edge.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

They sure revamped the lines Shaker--cut about 3 1/2 off birdie and gir totals.
TV was misleading as most the trouble was on the front (which didn't get to see much of)--and rain had stopped when broadcast started-- evidently those holes were into the wind which would explain the short DD averages.
Weather was about same as 4th rd last year--however contours on greens are making things MUCH tougher--if greens were firm would be tougher yet.
Don't do a lot of birdies Shaker but have had one rule that has saved me money--if you like the player giving up the 1/2 stroke--best to pass in most situations--1/2 stroke is lot of weight in birdies.
Believe all totals (birdies and girs) went under yesterday--I got a couple leans on a few overs--the match you had yesterday looks decent today but Sergio's aggressive nature scares me with these contours-- as many areas now possibilty for tough pin placements.

 

[Shaker]

As far as I can tell the wind forecast is still strong so it's too much guesswork for me.

Re speed of the greens, reading the player interviews they all say how different they are. Garcia thought he hit a good long putt on one hole and it went 12 feet past!

 

[Shaker]

Also, they say the changes mean they have to borrow a lot more on swinging putts.

I see Appleby was 6th for PA yesterday yet his figure of 1.769 only marginally beat the 1.775 figure which was the average for the whole field last year. I suppose this might have been affected by the players arguably not shooting as close to the pins in these conditions but it'll be interesting all the same to see how it progresses.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

2nd rd --Have several today--like these the best
Choi +112 over Perry
Appleby +110 (-1/2) over Petterson

asking for it betting on one of the (by's)--have knack for catching them on their clunkers



01/06/06 S 01/06/06 K.J. CHOI (2ND RND) +112 KENNY PERRY (2ND RND)

Fri 1/6 102 Stuart Appleby -? +110
2:00PM (PST) 103 Carl Pettersson +? -130
* Game Note: Mercedes Championships - 2nd Round Stroke Play

 

[InSpades]

DTB,

Where do you play your golf matchups?

Thanks,

IS

 

[lay the wood2]

2-1 Yesterday and for the Year

Going with these early matchups, don't think Choi is of good form right now -- too inconsistent...

O'hair over Crane
Perry over Choi
Lonard over Petrovic

Good luck to all across the board today

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Spades Sorry for late response--just now seeing your post.

For matches the bulk will be @ 5Dimes-Pinnacle
Olympic would be 3rd.
Props will be @ Wagerweb/Hollywood -their props are identicle
-note that Wagerweb is sponsor here and foots bill each year for golf contest.

I generally note which book play is at but forgot yesterday-sorry.
Choi was 5 dimes and Appleby-Wagerweb.

 

[Shaker]

2nd rd --Have several today--like these the best
Choi +112 over Perry
Appleby +110 (-1/2) over Petterson

Good ones there DTB - but a spread bet on 13 shot winner Appleby would've seen you dancing round that golf course this morning!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Shaker I have read your write-ups and others on spread betting at least twice every year--every time I think of giving it a go I chicken out.Goes with the "can't teach old dogs new tricks" mentality I unfortunately have--just something about unknown returns or losses that doesn't bode well with my nature.
Went 2-1 on gir props yesterday--all overs
had to have Browne hit last green to give him a total of 10 along with Furyks 16--Bart and Kenny came thru easily--Toms/Leonard did not fare so well.

 

[Shaker]

Yeah, there's no need to get involved if you have plenty to occupy you. Best left alone although give me a shout if you ever want to ask anything about them, however simple.

Any opinion on the likely weather/wind for the guys today? Is weather.com likely to be correct (fcast 21 mph) in your experience or is there a better weather site for PGA?

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Don't find one any better than others Shaker. Do a consensous usually. Didn't think it was going to get that bad yesterday-- would have gladly bought back my props if I could have after I tuned in on TV.

 

[InSpades]

Spades Sorry for late response--just now seeing your post.

For matches the bulk will be @ 5Dimes-Pinnacle
Olympic would be 3rd.
Props will be @ Wagerweb/Hollywood -their props are identicle
-note that Wagerweb is sponsor here and foots bill each year for golf contest.

I generally note which book play is at but forgot yesterday-sorry.
Choi was 5 dimes and Appleby-Wagerweb.

Thanks. Good luck this year.

IS

 

[Agent 0659]

Course playing BRUTAL!!