No buys so no recap.
Had a 5-1 +$472 spot on Atlanta, but stayed off it. Why? Two reasons:
1 - I won with it on Saturday with Phil and didn't feel like pushing it.
2 - It was Sunday, and I had a profit for the week.
It's a loooong season in MLB. One money management discipline strategy calls for working in weekly windows. The week start Monday, ends Sunday, the goal being to finish the week with a profit.
Had it been a mid-week spot, or if I had a bigger profit for the week, I may have played Atlanta.
But, on a Sunday, with a small profit for the week, I banked what I had.
And Atlanta lost.
If you're winning - great, keep doing what you're doing.
If you're not winning, try working in a weekly window, see if it helps.
Updated records:
GP 7-5, +$283
BP 10-11, +$160
BP spots took an 0-3 beat yesterday, but still profitable even with a sub .500 record because it utilizes dogs.
My record: 3-2, +$106
Today:
GP has SF +105
BP has Chi WS +115
I was going to wait for the next match play (5-2, +$372) but I see SF is in the 5-W's-in-a-row spot so I'm taking a closer look at this game.
Looking at last year's charts, I see that when I decided to bank my profits and end my MLB season in August I had these spots at:
HM 23-18, -$61
RD 9-17, +$1021
HM (Home) spots were profitable until late August.
RD spots had a losing record but because they were mostly dogs it had a nice profit.
I prefer these spots when the sixth game is against the team they beat for their fifth straight win.
That isn't the case with SF today as they face NYM after beating Cleveland last game.
Unfortunately, last years log book doesn't have a record for when a team is playing the team they beat for their fifth straight win as opposed to a new opponent (I can research and find out, but it's a lot of work. I will track that stat this season.)
Another consideration if I'm taking SF today is this - the Met's Megill is 2-0 with an ERA of .000!
But his two starts came against Wash and Philly, middle of the pack offensive teams. SF is top ten in runs scored.
And, SF is in a good spot for me as GP plays are GP 7-5, +$283
What else can I look at to help me decide whether to lay my money down on SF today?
How about this - has SF been in any GP spots this year?
I grab my logbook, do a quick check, and . . . no, 0-0 (and THIS is one of the reasons I use different color ink for different plays - it makes it fast/easy to do look-backs for record checks.)
How about HM vs RD records?
NYM are 2-1 at HM, but that's negated by SF being 3-0 on the RD.
Mets HM wins came vs last place 3-6 Az.
SF's RD wins came vs second place but 4-5 Cle. No real edges there.
Since the game isn't until later today (and because I love crunching numbers) I have time to check last year's chart for that missing piece of information - What is the record of 5-W's-in-a-row teams when they faced a different opponent in their next game?
I'll be back . . .
UPDATE: Just did a full year look back at 5-W's-in-a-row, 2021.
HM 29-20
RD 17-19
This means that after I ended my season, HM spots went 6-2, RD spots went 8-2.
I don't have time to do the updated dollar amounts, but no doubt that a 6-2 HM record brought that category from -$61 to back into the plus $ side, and 8-2 on RD teams (where you often get dog odds) greatly increased the $1,021 profit already banked on the RD spots.
When playing the same team they beat for their 5th in a row, the record is:
23-15 HM, 15-12 RD
When playing a different team the record is:
6-5 HM, 2-7 RD.
Tonight's spot has SF playing a different team, on the RD, the 2-7 record noted above.
Also, SF after 5 W's was just 2-5 last year, 1-2 on the RD.
Based on LY's stats, SF is not a strong play today. But . . . if you take the thinking out of it and just play all these spots, especially RD spots, you may bank a nice profit if this year's #'s are similar to LY's.
There has already been one 5-W's-in-a-row spot this season, LAD yesterday (I missed it.)
They were high-priced at -200 but they won 9-1, so 5-in-a-row spots are 1-0, +$100 to start the season.
While I won't lay high odds in MLB I will play run lines to get a better price. And while updating LY's #'s I saw that a lot of the HM spots won by 2 or >, so I'll probably use that strategy this season. (Yes, I should have charted the record for when HM teams won by 2 or > but it didn't occur to me until I was halfway through the work.)
LY's #'s say SF is not a high % play, but, it's a new season, the overall #'s for the play are solid, and it's a GP spot, too, so . . .
Buys:
SF +105
