MLB buys for 2022

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 9-10, -$136

Got a nice W with Az yesterday.

Yesterday I wrote: "GP is now 14-19, -$373. Is this spot going to get back in black this week?
Is it time to ride a few of them?"
I was looking at this play's performance last year, and wondering if it was a fluke winning season.
I don't think it was, and had a feeling it was due to get back on a winning track.
And . . . 3-0 yesterday.

GP: 17-19, -$21
Today: TB +110, Oak +105, KC +110
Oak is 3-2 in this spot, TB is 0-1, KC is 0-0

Can't play Oak (Johnny-Come-Lately spot - they won yesterday and I didn't buy them.)

TB is 0-1 in this spot so that's not good,
AND . . . I used them in that spot and they screwed me, blowing the lead in the ninth,
AND . . . LAA has Ohtani on the mound,
AND . . . LAA is 7-2 vs lefties.
So, plenty of reasons to take a pass on that spot.

KC has lost three straight, so not liking that one either.

Looking at Az.
They're not in one of the spots I chart, but they're hot (7-2 in May), Mia is most definitely not (1-9 in May),
I have the edge in the pitching match up, and it's at a decent price.

What to do, what to do?
How about trying to buck the Johnny-Come Lately Jinx?
Det and Oak both suck, but Det sucks just a little bit more.
It's a battle of lefties today. Oak 4-4 vs lefties, is Det is 3-6. Edge to Oak.
Oak has Logue on the mound. He's 0-1 but pitched okay in his first start (5 innings, two runs.)
Det has Wentz, a rookie making is first start in the majors. Edge Oak.

And while I'm in the mood for bucking trends, let's throw caution to the wind and try and ignore my "I will not bet games that aren't from one of my spots" mantra, too.

Buys:
Az -109
Oak +108

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1, -$1
Record: 10-11, -$137

Yesterday, I ignored two norms I use in betting on any sport:
the "Johnny-Come-Lately Jinx" and the "I will not bet games that aren't from one of my spots!" rule.

What I call the "Johnny-Come Lately Jinx" is where I have a team that qualifies as a spot to play for the second day in a row, but I didn't buy the first spot and it won, so I don't want to play the second spot because I feel like I'm chasing a missed opportunity.
I have no record on this, it's just a gut feel - I don't like jumping on a team I laid off of the day before.
It's not one of the disciplines I try to follow, it's just a feeling, sort of like a superstition but not backed up with data.

On the other hand, NOT buying games that are not one of the spots I have in play that day IS a discipline.
With data to back it up, as I'll show, below.

I always recommend to bettors that they examine and dissect their own records.
Handicappers will spend hours looking at teams, pitchers, W/L records, Hm stats vs Rd stats, wind, rain, lefty vs righty, etc, etc, but most don't spend a minute looking at THEIR OWN stats.
Here's an example of why you should.
I examined my stats last night, after losing a game that was not one of my qualifying spots yesterday.
I am 10-11, -$137 this MLB season. Digging into MY OWN stats I see that of the 11 losses, 4 have been plays that were NOT one of my spots. That's 37%!

By taking time to break down my stats, I see that if I only played games that fit one of my situational spots, my record would be 10-7, and instead of being down -$137, I would be +$358.

The data backs up my discipline "Do NOT bet games that aren't spots that you track and chart."
And I'll remember that the next time I'm tempted buy something that isn't a spot I track.

GP swept all three plays for the second day in a row, and is back in black at 20-19, +$304.
Today it has OAK +105, NYY +123.
Oak is 4-2 in this spot; NYY 0-0.

GP has been doing well, but I used Oak yesterday.
This is their third straight day in this spot, they won the first two, and I don't feel like pushing it for a third.

And I won't take NYY because I'm 0-1 buying them this year, and there is no team in any sport that I hate to lose on more than the Stanks.

GP spots are rounding into form, no hurry, I'll have other spots to use between now and the week's end on Sunday.

Pass today.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 11-11, -$37.00

Yesterday morning I posted a buy on SF in the 5WR spot.
The post seems to have been lost during the upgrade.
I'd appreciate it if someone who saw that post (and/or my buy on the Celtics, also lost) posted a reply to this and let me know they saw it. Thanks.

There were no GP spots yesterday, as I mentioned in the post.
They are on a 9-0 run. Record is 22-19, +$531.00

Today I have three spots to choose from.
GP has Bos +110, Min +115
5WR has NYY -150. This spot is 5-1, +$469

I said in yesterday's post I only bought two of the nine winners in GP spots so I'm not doing a very good job there.
I expect the bankroll to reach $1,000 like it did last year so I'm going to ride all of them this weekend.

I stated from the beginning of the year that I'll play all 5WR spots. The one I have today though is at -150, so I'm trying to decide between buying the money line or the run line.
A quick check of my logbook and I see that of the 5 W's in this spot, all 5 have covered the -1' run line. So . . .


Buys:
Bos +110
Min +115
NYY -1' +102

 

[Tkj]

Good job RBD!
i tail your SF and Celtics play yesterday, ,
Continue your success and good luck sir!

 

[RBD]

Tkj,
Thanks for taking a minute to let me know you saw the posts.
Glad you played them too. Two strong spots, the 5WR spot I detailed in my MLB post today, and a rare RD spot in the NBA, (15-4 reg season and now 5-1 in the postseason after the Celtics win last night.) Might be the last time I see that play this NBA season, glad you saw the post, the record, and buy recommendation, and got on it.

Thanks again for stopping by and good luck with your play today.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-2
Record: 12-13, -$127

GP split for a small profit, got a W with Boston, Min lost in extra innings at home.
In my other game I got screwed by the Yankees, AGAIN.

Short on time, only one spot today, GP has Boston again.
Just banked with them yesterday, don't like going back to the well but it worked earlier this week with Oakland, and I said I was going to play all GP spots this weekend, so...

Buys:
Bos +103

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1, -$100
Record: 12-14, -$227

It was an OK week for me, I went from -$256 to -$227 for a small profit. (ANY week with ANY profit is a good thing in the loooooong MLB season.)
But it was also a lousy week for me as GP spots went 10-2, going from -$478 to +$442 (a swing of > $900.00) so I should have done much better.
And, as expected, I got screwed by the Stankees, AGAIN (though I managed to avoid getting F'ed by the O's too, "So I've got that going for me" as Mr. Spackler would say.)

GP: 23-22, +$442

No spots active today so I get a day off.

 

[RBD]

No plays yesterday.
Record: 12-14, -$227

GP record: 23-22, +$442

One spot active today, GP has Hou.

Buy:
Hou +105

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 13-14, -$122

Nice start to the week, hitting with Houston. A nine run second inning banked that one early.

GP: 24-22, +$547

No games today fit any of the scenarios I 'cap.
Back tomorrow.

 

[RBD]

Third day this week that nothing qualifies.
If I don't get something soon, I'm going to want to play something that is not one of my situational spots.
And you know what that means - trouble.

 

[RBD]

No plays yesterday so no buys.
Record: 13-14, -$122

GP has Sea +102 (24-22, +$547)
5RH has LAD -139 (5-2, +$91)

If I had a + balance I might look at LAD, but I'm at -$122 and they cost -$139 so no buy for me there.
When I don't like the juice I look to the run line, but I'm not laying 1' runs against Suarez who's 4-1, and the Phillies who are 6-1 in his starts.

Don't like Seattle facing the Green Monster with lefty Ray on the mound, and Mariners have lost three of their last four while Boston has won three of their last four.

I finally get a couple spots to choose from but I don't like either, and at -$122 I have to choose wisely.
Pass on the day, good luck with your play.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday, no recap.
Record: 13-14, -$122

I have two spots today, both GP (23-23, +$342)

Az +125
LAD +108

Not crazy about playing the Dodgers because I stayed off them yesterday in the 5WR spot and they won (Seattle lost though so if I played both spots it would have been a 1-1 day, break even money, nothing gained, nothing lost.)
But, in theory, when I have two GP spots I should play them both because based on history and current record the odds say I'll get a split it worse case. And since they're always at dog odds, plus money, I'll bank a little profit.
Here's how I'll play it:
The Az game goes off first, so I'll buy that one.
If it wins, I'll bank it, no play on LAD.
If it loses, I'll look at adding the LAD spot to go for the split.
IF I buy the Dodgers game I'll add it to this post.

Buys:
Az +125

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 14-14, +$3

Both posted GP spots won, 25-23 now, +$575.

Only one spot today, Atl +110, and I don't like it.
I started the week -$227, reduced the entire debt and got back to +$3. That's a swing of $230, and I'll be glad for it and shut down the week with a profit, start again on Monday in a new week.

 

[RBD]

No buys, no recap yesterday.

Good call on locking up a profit on the week and NOT taking Atl as they lost 4-3.

My record: 14-14, +$3

GP: 25-24, +$475

Today, GP has Cin +110
Cincy??!!
Yeah, sure, I'm going to bet on a team that is:
12-28 on the season
2-9 vs lefties
and has a starting pitcher who is 0-5 with an ERA of 8.65.

PASS!!!

 

[RBD]

Good move laying off Cin yesterday as they lost.

My record: 14-14, +$3

GP: 25-25, +$375

Today, four spots to choose from.

GP has Col +104
GP has dropped two straight, and so have the Rockies. Though Pit sucks at 17-24 on the season (41%) they actually have a winning record vs lefties at 8-6.
With Colorado sending lefty Freeland to the mound, and his 1-4 record, this spot is a pass for me.

5WH (5-2, +$9) has SD +115 & Min -250
5WR (6-2, +$419) has Boston +145

Let's dig deeper into all three spots.
SD is 0-0 in this spot, Min is 1-0, Bos is 0-0.

SD: Getting dog odds on a 5WH spot is rare, but SD is getting +115 due to the pitching match-up favoring Mil. But the Brewers are 6-8 vs lefties. Tempting spot.
Min: Not laying -250 obviously. Min covered the -1' run line last time in this spot and four of Detroit's last five losses have come by 2 or >, so possible play there.
Bos: I like 5WR spots, and I like playing against the WS, but I don't trust the Red Sox and I give the pitching edge to Chi in this game.

Buys:

Min -1', -120
SD +120

 

[Tkj]

3 out 4 , let keep it coming RBD,

 

[RBD]

Thanks, Tkj.
Glad you were on them, wish I rode all four.

Recap: 1-1, even $
Record: 15-15,+$3

Dropped $100 on SD, won $100 on Min.
Took the -1' run line on Min and they only scored 2 runs.
I'd guess that 99.999% of the time you lose when that happens, but Detroit hung a zero so I got lucky.

I keep saying I'm going to play ALL 5WR spots, but I talked myself off another one last night and . . . Boston put up 16 runs. That spot is now 7-2, +$564
5WH split, no $ won or lost, now 6-3, +$9
GP hit with Col, that spot is now 26-25, +$479

Every spot I 'cap has a plus balance, combined +$1,052, yet I'm at +$3 ??!!
I have to open up a little and trust the situational spots I isolate, and stop talking myself out of buying them (starting tomorrow though, I don't like today's spot.).

Today, only one spot in action. GP has Mil +112
Since I just bet AGAINST Mil yesterday and they beat me, I won't switch sides and bet ON them today. That situation (not switching sides the next day) is just one of the little quirks I have when buying MLB.
Plus, SD is 11-2 after a loss.
AND Milwaukee is sending a lefty to the mound (SD is 12-3 vs southpaws.)
Three reasons that tell me to take a pass on today's spot.

 

[RBD]

Yesterday: "Every spot I 'cap has a plus balance, combined +$1,052, yet I'm at +$3 ? I have to open up a little and trust the situational spots I isolate, and stop talking myself out of buying them."

Also yesterday: ("starting tomorrow though, I don't like today's spot, Mil +112")

Also yesterday: Final score, Mil 2, SD 1.

ARRRGGGHHH!!!
("ARRRGGGHHH" is, of course, a famous quote of Joseph of Aramathia)
(One out if ten will get that reference?)

Anyway . . .

Okay, starting TODAY, I'm going to bet ALL of the GP spots, etc, etc, etc.

Except - there are no spots active today.

ARRRGGGHHH!

 

[OtroPex]

Yesterday: "Every spot I 'cap has a plus balance, combined +$1,052, yet I'm at +$3 ? I have to open up a little and trust the situational spots I isolate, and stop talking myself out of buying them."

Also yesterday: ("starting tomorrow though, I don't like today's spot, Mil +112")

Also yesterday: Final score, Mil 2, SD 1.

ARRRGGGHHH!!!
("ARRRGGGHHH" is, of course, a famous quote of Joseph of Aramathia)
(One out if ten will get that reference?)

Anyway . . .

Okay, starting TODAY, I'm going to bet ALL of the GP spots, etc, etc, etc.

Except - there are no spots active today.

ARRRGGGHHH!

LOL, the patron saint of undertakers...

 

[Tkj]

ARRRGGGHHH!
Let’s have a spot RBD.