MLB buys for 2022

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 21-26, -$498

Didn't I just do a breakdown of my losses a few days ago, and saw that most of them came from using the run line on big money Favs??!!
Did it again last time in with San Fran and took a loss.
And deserve it.

Good thing MLB is the longest season, looks like it's going to take me some time to turn this around, IF I can turn it around.

​​​​​​I left my log book in my office so I can't do an update on records for the various plays I track, I don't think anything qualified the last day or two which is why I haven't been in with a post.

Waiting for lines to come in on two spots that may qualify for GP plays, and have 5WR spot, the Cleveland Pander Bears, getting a healthy price (+215) in their game versus the Dodgers.

I'll wait until the lines come in, then I'll post any other plays that qualify and any buys I make.

Update: no plays qualify as GP spots today.
Not buying the 5WR spot.

 

[RBD]

Record: 21-26, -$498

Good move laying off the 5WR spot yesterday as Cleveland lost. If I had a plus balance I may have taken a shot on them but I have a negative balance so I can't take a chance on 2-1 underdogs
5WR has dropped two straight and is now 9-5, +$385

One GP spot today, Az +104.
One 5WR spot today, Phil -170.

No buys.

 

[RBD]

No recap, no buys yesterday.
Record: 21-26, -$498

GP: 35-37, +$155
5WH 11-4, +$371
5WR 9-6, +215

Today, two GP spots, Phil +105, Mil +115

Buys:
Phil +105
Mil +115

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-2, -$200
Record: 21-28, -$698

I don't bet with an open-ended bankroll, I set a limit to win, and to lose.
Last year I shut down my MLB season when I hit my target of +$1,000.
And if I hit -$1000 this year I'll shut it down.
I'm at my lowest # all season at -$698, and for the first time this year GP spots have dipped below the profit line, so I'm getting no help there.

I'm going to be very choosy over the next few weeks.
I'll post spots that qualify in case anyone is interested and for record keeping, but I'll be taking most days off until I feel I can shake off this losing streak.

GP 35-39, -$45
5WH 11-4, +$371
5WR 9-6, +215

Today, GP has SF +110.

No buys for me.
Good luck with your plays . . .

 

[RBD]

Update:

GP hasn't had a play since Wednesday, and has lost 4 of last 5 to go into the red for the first time this season, 35-40, -$145
5WH is still 11-4, +$371
5WR had Bos on Sat (W at +140) Sea on Sun (L for -100); 10-7, +255

I'm at 21-28, -$698

No spots active today.

 

[RBD]

Record: 21-28, -$698

GP (35-40, -$145) has St L +105 today.
A quick scan of my log book shows only one game for St L in this spot, a W on June 1.
Tough pitching match-up today, Alcantara at 7-3, 1.95 ERA and 3-0 on the road.
He's 0-3 lifetime vs St L, but he pitched well, got no support.

If I was in the black I'd buy St L in this spot, but I'm only a few losses away from my season cutoff point, so I have to wait for something that looks a little easier.
No buys, good luck with your play today.

 

[RBD]

Laying off St L was the right move last time in, saved not only a loss, but what would have been a frustrating one.
The Cards were up 3-2, top of the ninth, had two outs, one out away from the $. They gave up two runs, blew their lead, and lost 4-3.
GP spots continue to struggle (35-41, -$245) may fade them if I get a spot I like.

One GP spot today, Az +103
No buy for me.

 

[Tkj]

I was thinking the same fade the GP spot once you post, but I kinda like Az today.
GL and HAPPY 4th .

 

[RBD]

Tkj - Happy 4th to you too.

Az won last time I had a play, GP spot is now 36-41, -$142
Not a lot of games qualifying for GP spots lately; last was that Az game on 7/1.

Hou was in the 5WH spot on 7/3; no play for me as they were priced above -200; they won.
5WH now 12-4, +$471; 5WR is 10-7, +$255

My record: 21-28, -$698

One game qualifies today, 5WH, Mia -135
I'll buy this spot.
I got -130 @ betany but that # seems rare, many players likely can't get that, -135 is more commonly available so I'll use that here.

Buys
Mia -135

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0, +$100
Record: 22-28, -$598

Since I'm in the red, a lot, I stepped back, didn't press or chase. I kept 'capping and charting but was very selective, waiting for the right spot to jump back in.
After 13 days, I took a shot with a 75% spot yesterday (5WH, 12-4) with Mia, and barely came through with a W.

For a minute there it looked like I would be writing another "What Game was that Manager Watching?" post.
I tune into the game with perfect timing: top of the 9th and I'm up 2-0.

Three outs from the $.

Alacantra has pitched a gem, 0 runs, just 2 hits. But his pitch count is at 107 so I understand why he gets yanked for a closer.
Tanner Scott comes in, and I get my first bad vibe for the inning - he's an ex-Oriole. Is he going to screw me?

The A's send Stefanik in as a pinch hitter - the guy's a rook with ZERO hits in his career. Edge to me. But . . .
Stefanik hits a scorcher down the right filed line, and I'm lucky it's only a single.

Tying run at the plate now. Scott gets Villar to whiff and I'm 2 outs from the $. But the meat of the lineup is next, Trout and Ohani.

Scott wants no part of Trout and walks him.
Go ahead run at the plate now, uh-oh, but Ohani is 0-6 vs Scott, so I got that going for me. Scott walks him, his pitches nowhere near the plate.
YANK HIM, right? Donnie Baseball brought Scott in for one purpose - to get three men out. He's now walked two straight to load the bases. YANK HIM!!! Right?
No.
Ward hits a frozen rope to center, but Sanchez makes a good catch.
Scott's given up a run on the sacrifice, 2-1 now. YANK HIM! Right?
No. Donnie leaves him in.
In my head I'm starting today's write-up/lament of a game I should have won.
When Ward sends a sharp liner to short center I see the $ disappearing but Sanchez saves my ass with a great catch.
Money in the bank.

5WH is now 13-4, 76%. Usually they're too expensive, (in the -200 range) but got one at a decent price yesterday and got a W.

No spots active today.
Good luck with your play . . .

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday

Record: 22-28, -$598

Four spots to choose from today:

GP (32-41, -$42) has the Indians +110

5WH (13-4, +$571) has Bal -125, Sea -107

5WR (10-7, +$255) has Det +160

I don't let my nemesis the O's screw me when they're getting a + $ price, today I'd have to buy them as Favs? I don't think so.

How did Det win 5 in a row? They're lucky when they win 2 in a row. There's a good reason they're getting +160 today. Pass.

Cle is on a 4 game losing streak AND their mound guy for tonight has an ERA of 7.04; Pass.

Don't much like Sea either.

Still, the 5WH spot is killing it at 76%, so if I buy both, odds are I get a split at worst case, right?
Here's what I'm going to do. Buy the early game now, After the results are in I'll make a call on the later game (bank it if it wins, go for the split if it loses?)

Once again, putting to the test my theory that when I bet ON the O's they lose, when I bet AGAINST them they win.

Buys
Balt -125

 

[RBD]

Recap: What??!! Huh??!!

 

[Tkj]

Recap: What??!! Huh??!!

YES, Believed it, trust your analysis, thanks RBD.

 

[RBD]

Tkj,
I tuned into the game late, O's down 3-1, but they had men on 1st and 3rd, no outs. Looking good for a comeback, but the inning ended 3-1. Almost turned it off in disgust, thinking Balt was going to screw me again. But I stuck with the game anyway and was glad I did.

For anyone who didn't see it, Ohtani homered, top of the ninth to give the Angels some insurance, 4-1 now.
And then it happened.
Not once, not twice, not three times but FOUR times the Angels were one strike away from a win.
But Baltimore kept hitting singles.
They scored four in the bottom of the ninth to get me a W (record now 23-28, -$498.)
​​​​​
And with that game, 5WH move to 14-4.
And Seattle won later that night, it's now 15-4, 79%, +$771.
5WR also won at some really nice odds with Detroit, that spot is now 11-7, +$415
GP lost with the Indians, 32-42, -$142.

Only one spot today, 5WH has the Dodgers, but they're -250.

One one way to look at this is I'm 2-0 for the week, +$200, so I'd really only be paying $50 to buy LA.
Another way to look at it is I'm in the red and doing okay in my battle to get back in black, and laying -250 it's not a solid strategy right now.
I don't have my charts with me but I'm pretty sure laying -1' runs to avoid paying a high price on 5WH spots is a game or two under .500, so that's not a very strong option either.

My MLB strategy is to work in weekly windows, with the goal always being to finish with any profit.
I'm at 2-0, +$200. The week ends tomorrow, so at most I'll lay $100 if I see anything strong, so worst case I will end the week with at least a hundred bucks off my deficit.
But no buys today, not at -250, and not using a spot on the run line that is under .500.

Good luck with your plays today...

 

[RBD]

Stopping by just in case anyone is feeling like taking a long shot today.
5WR has Cin, available at +250 and higher. This spot is 11-7 (61%), +$415.

Even if I had a + balance I would pass on this one for a few reasons.

First - Cin is terrible. How terrible are they? NYY have almost DOUBLE the # of wins the Reds have (61 for NY, 33 for Cincy.)

Second - the Yanks had a 3 run lead in the 9th inning last night. A walk and TWO hit-by-pitch led to bases loaded.
At 3-2, Yanks were one out away from winning when they gave up a 2 run single. They lost 4-3.
I don't expect Cincy to get gifted or lucky again tonight.

Third - Cincy has lefty Minor on the mound; 1-6, with a 6.63 ERA, and NY is 21-8 vs lefties.

Pass.

No other plays qualify tonight.

 

[RBD]

Almost regretted staying off Cincy last time in, at terrific + odds, They had the lead, 6-5 in the 8th, but the Yanks won in extra innings.

Odd season for GP spots, in previous seasons I usually get at least one almost every day, but very few games qualifying these days.

Nothing fits today.

 

[Speed]

dude...what are you smoking...yankees LOST

 

[OtroPex]

dude...what are you smoking...yankees LOST

Pretty sure he was referring to the 7/13 game

 

[RBD]

Correct Otro, thanks for the pickup.

No recap, no buys, slow week.
Record: 23-28, -$498

Two spots today, decent numbers/stats on them so I'm buying both.

GP (32-42, -$142) has WS +108
5WH (16-4, +$371) has TB -118

Don't like betting against my nemesis Baltimore, especially after I used them a week ago and they had that come from behind win in the ninth for me. But . . .

Buys:
WS +108
TB -118

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-2
Record; 23-30, -$716

From last time: "Don't like betting against my nemesis Baltimore, especially after I used them a week ago and they had that come from behind win in the ninth for me. But . . ."
And, TB, in a 16-4/80% spot, blows the lead in the 9th and goes on to lose in OT.
Not totally unexpected with the O's, I felt like a bug near a zapper, drawn in, couldn't help myself.

I have some work to do in the second half if I'm going to get back in black. Only 3 losses away from my shutdown point, too, so this is not going to be easy.

One spot today, GP (32-43, -$242) has NYY +102 in game one.
If I'm going to avoid my first losing MLB season here I don't imagine it will come from betting AGAINST the top teams in the league, like Houston, even if it means betting ON the best team, like NYY.
I'll pass on this one and wait for a better spot.