MLB buys for 2022

[RBD]

When posting, it's always good to drop in a Monty Python quote whenever you can!
Thanks for stopping by, Otro and Tkj.

Record: 15-15,+$3

I have a couple spots today.
GP (27-25, +$591) has NYY +106 and Oak +112
NYY are 1-0 in this spot, Oak 3-2

As I said, "Okay, starting TODAY, I'm going to bet ALL of the GP spots, etc, etc, etc" so that's what I'm going to do for the next few days.
AND I'm not going to dig deeper into stats that might tempt me to lay off a spot and miss out on a W (though it didn't hurt to look closer at the NYY spot and see they are 11-4 vs lefties.)


Buys:
NYY +106
Oak + 112

 

[53defense]

I’m with ya on these

“ Nudge good as a wink to a blind bat “

 

[RBD]

53D,
"Your wife, she's into sports, eh? Say no more, say no more!"

Recap: 1-1
Record: 16-16, +$9

​​​​​​+$9.00 - I'm almost in double digits!

Yanks came through with another win versus a lefty, 12-4 now vs Southpaws.
Oakland was five outs away from the money, blew the lead in the 8th.

Only one spot today, Col +108 (game 1)
It's it's an okay spot, I have stats that support a play on either side, normally I would lay off it, but I said I was going to play all of the GP spots this weekend, and the Nat's are 5-10 vs lefties, so I'll ride it.

Buys:
Col +108

 

[RBD]

Recap (from Saturday): 0-1
Record: 16-17, -$91

Update from the last few days.
Sunday I couldn't get in, GP had NYY (L @ +127) and Tor (W @ +115); no plays Monday.

Updated records for the three spots I'm using:
GP 28-27, +$497
5WH 6-3, +$9
5WR 7-2, +$564

Only one spot today, 5WH has Tor -175

Not buying a high price Fav @ -175.
The r/l is -1' +125, let's take a closer look at that.
WS are 5-5 last ten games, all five losses by 2 runs or >. So, that's in my favor if I lay the r/l.
But . . . in Toronto's 5 game W streak three of five came by just one run, only two of five were 2 or >. Not in my favor there.
Ahhh, what the hell, I'm riding it.

Buys:
Tor -1' +125

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 16-18, -$191

Posted spot gets a W, but I took an L because I bought it on the run line and Tor won by one. 5WH is now 7-3, +$109
Correction to GP record in yesterday's update. I forgot to add the 1-1 split from Sunday when I couldn't get in.
GP: 29-28, +$512

A few spots today.
GP has St L +112, SF +110
Update: Mia gm 2 +102
Mia might be an add-on on either or both games, TBD. I'll update if they are. (Update #1: Mia gm 1 does not qualify; UPDATE #2: Mia gm 2 qualifies; no buy for me)
I took a quick glance at my logbook and I see no GP spots for St L (0-0); SF is 0-1, no edges there.


5WH has NYM -220
No way I lay -220 on anyone.
This spot is similar to Toronto play yesterday. Just like Chicago was 5-5 in their last ten played with 5 losses by > one run, Wash is also 5-5 last ten games with 4 of 5 by > one run.
Mets are a solid 34-17 overall but a losing record vs lefties at 7-8.
I check my logbook and I see the r/l has covered in five of eight 5WH spots. so, though it burned me yesterday I'm buying it again today. (CORRECTION - WRONG! R/L record on these was 5-5; no edge, sorry. Luckily it won with NYM today, 6-5 now.)

Buys:
NYM -1', -120
St L +112
SF +110

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-1, +$112
Record: 18-19, -$79

Got W's with the Mets and Cards.
Good move laying off the Mia GP spot.
Took an L on SF as they came-from-ahead to blow a 5-2 lead thanks to wokester gabe kapler.
The Giants are down 2-0, top of the 6th, when they plate 5.
Starter Rodon is at 98 on his pitch count, so I'm okay with gabe going to his bullpen to hold onto the 5-2 lead.
He brings Garcia in, who gives up a lead off single. Okay, no big deal, no trouble yet, stick with Garcia.
Next guy pops it up into left field, one out.
Maton homers, now it's 5-4.
Garcia was brought in to do one job - protect the lead. He failed to do so. Easy call here - YANK HIM. Go to the pen for someone else, right?
Woke Boy leaves Garcia in.
Next guy up - base hit. NOW you yank Garcia for sure, right?
Woke Boy leaves Garcia in.
He tosses a wild pitch and now the tying run is on second.
NOW you yank him. Yes, it's in the middle of the count on a batter but I don't care. The guy didn't do the job you brought him in for, he has no control, YANK HIM!!!
No.
Schwarber homers and NOW that the three run lead is blown, gabe says, "Hey, maybe I should go to the bullpen for someone else?" and he brings in Littell who gets two easy outs.
Too Littell, too late (Sorry, I couldn't resist that one.)

Sometimes while watching a baseball game I think the manager is watching a different game than the one I'm watching.

GP went 1-2 yesterday, 5WH spot won.

No plays active today.

 

[OtroPex]

...
Woke Boy leaves Garcia in.

:lol::mj07:

 

[RBD]

Otro - thanks for stopping by.

No buys yesterday, no recap.
Record: 18-19, -$79

Only one spot today, GP (30-30, +$412) has Tex +105
Don't like it. I'll pass.

 

[RBD]

Good move passing on Texas yesterday as they blew their lead in the top of the 9th inning and went on to lose.

Only one spot today, 5WR has Houston, -179 (7-2 +$564)
​​​I don't have this spot broken down into W/L on the run line, I'll try and update that during the week when I have time.

Not laying -179, so . . .

Buys:
Hou -1', -110

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 18-20, -$189

Three spots to choose from today.
GP (30-31, +$312) has Balt +104 and Boston +101
5WH (8-3, +$271) has NYY -300

I hate to buy Baltimore, I play ON them they lose, I play AGAINST them and they win. But the general rule is: when you have two GP spots play them both, because even if you split you'll have a profit because they're always dogs.

As for the 5WH spot, I'm obviously not laying-300.
These spots on the r/l are 6-5, a very slight edge there.
Let's let's look a little deeper.
In their current five-game winning streak the Yanks have one by 2 or > in four of five.
In Detroit's last 10 games they've lost four, all four by 2 or >.
Detroit's coming off of two straight shutouts, so they're likely due to score a couple today, but I may buy this one. when I get some time this morning I want to go look at Detroit in the getaway situation (Sunday, on the road, traveling after the game. Will add it if I buy.

Update: I can't buy the Yankee spot even if I wanted to, they're already playing??!!
Who plays Sunday games at 8:30 in the morning??!!
I just bought it but it won't count here as a recommended buy, it's too expensive at -138 for a recommended buy on the run line, but mainly because I don't believe in posting live bets. (I'll explain tomorrow when I have time.)


Buys:
Balt +104
Bos +101

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1, +$1 ("I'm rich! I'm wealthy! I'm financially independent, I'm socially secure!")
(Someone will get that reference.)

Record:19-21, -$188

Got a W with Boston, got screwed as usual by the O's.
NYY won in the 5WH spot (I lost the play I would not recommend, NY-1', they won by one.)

GP 31-32, +$313
5WH 9-3, +$371 (6-6 on the r/l)
5WR 7-3, +$385

I mentioned live bets yesterday. I make them, sometimes, but I don't post them.
Why not? Volatility.
The lines move too quickly to get a bet in, and the post it, and others have a chance to get the same #.

Today, one spot, GP has Az.
I'll buy this one, a couple of reasons.

1 - D'backs have lefty Bumgarner on the mound, and the Cubbies are 5-11 vs southpaws.

2 - Sundays and Mondays are the only two days of the week where I check records (Sundays for the "get-away-day" factor, and Mondays because some teams are just like a lot of people - they don't like Mondays.) I don't give this a lot of weight, but I do factor it into my other #'s. Az is 4-2 on Mondays, Cubbies are 1-2.

3 - The Cubs suck and I'm always okay with a play AGAINST them if they're in one of my systems, and I have Az at 2-0 in GP spots.

Buys:
Az +107

 

[Tkj]

RBD, thanks for the post! But AZ don’t play the Cubbies, (cincy) I’m play with your pick anyway (Az).
Bol my friend.

 

[Tkj]

Game end at 7th and cancel, doesn’t matter anyway.
keep it up RBD.

 

[RBD]

Tkj,
Yeah, I caught my error late in the afternoon, figured I'd correct it when I stopped by this morning.
Stats and numbers were correct, just replaced Cincy with Chi in my write up for some reason.

Recap: 0-1, -$100
Record: 19-22, -$288

Lost with Az yesterday.
Difficult to win a bet when you give up 7 runs.
Impossible to win when you score 0.

GP: 31-33, +$213

GP spots have gone from a season low of -$499, to a season high of +$575, to the current +$213.
Have been under performing lately, proceed with caution until the pendulum swings back the other direction.

Three spots to choose from today.
GP has Tex +108
5WR has Bos (line n/a), record 7-3 +$385
5WH has Atlanta -230, record 9-3, +$371

Not buying GP spot for reason noted above, plus I don't like the match up (stats seem pretty evenly matched, slight edge to home team.)

I'll most likely buy Bos because 5WR spots are 7-3, but it's a tricky spot because LAA have lost TWELVE in a row, and are beyond "due."
Will update in this post if I like the line.

Atl in a great spot, but not a consideration at -230. This puts me at the "Play the run line or not decision?" These are at 6-6, no edge.
Digging deeper:
in their current 5 game W streak, Atl has won 4 of 5 by 2 or >
in their current 6 game L streak, Oak has lost 5 of 6 by 2 runs or >
I like those numbers.
Also in my favor, Oak has a lefty on the mound and Atl is 13-6 (68%) vs lefties

Buys:
Atl -1', -118

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 19-23, -$406

Used a 5WH play that won but I lost because I took the run line. Not much I can do about it, I won't lay -230 on anybody, even if I had a huge plus balance.

Didn't use Boston because LAA fired their manager yesterday and I didn't want to play AGAINST a team day one under a new boss. And . . . Bos won.

So BOTH 5W spots win, and I drop $118 on the day.
Ugh!

GP lost again, so only thing I did right yesterday was lay off that one.

At -$406 I'm at my biggest deficit of the season, and it's entirely on me, not bad luck, as all three systems I'm using have plus balances.
So then, why the negative balance?
Buying games that did not fit any of my spots, and using the run line to avoid having to pay for high $' Favs.

GP 31-34, +$113
5WH 10-3, +$471
5WR 8-3, +$485

Today . . .

GP has NYM +115
5WR has Phil -130

GP's are on a downward trend so no buy there.
I have a 5WR spot but I don't like it much.
I've had a few bad days and at times like these it's best to step back, take a deep breath, take a day off, and refresh your batteries and brain.

 

[RBD]

No buys, no recap.
Record: 19-23, -$406

No plays fit yesterday or today.
Can't get back in black if I don't get any spots to choose from.
Hopefully I'll have something tomorrow.

 

[RBD]

No games fit yesterday so no buys, no recap.
Record: 19-23, -$406

Got two today.
GP (31-35, +$13) has KC +101 and Bos +113

You know me, any excuse to play against the O's.
So . . .

Buys:
KC +101
Bos +113

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1, +$13
Record: 20-24, -$393

Screwed by the Orioles, as usual.
Saved by the Red Sox.
I'm okay with 1-1 splits when using the GP spots because they're always underdogs, so you'll always bank something, but when I'm working my way out of a deficit they're really not much help. But I'll take what I can get.

No GP spots today, one 5WR spot - Mia.

I play most of these 5WR's (9-3, +$585 on the season for this spot) but Miami is a +210 dog today, and they just won as a +240 dog yesterday. Asking them to be giant slayers two days in a row is asking a bit too much I think, I'll pass on this one and take the day off.

 

[RBD]

No games fit yesterday so no buys, no recap.
Record: 20-24, -$393

Good move laying off a spot I usually buy, 5WR spot with Mia on 6/12, as they lost 9-4.

Have two GP spots today (32-36, +$26), Cin +105 and Min +106

Buys:
Cin +105
Minn +106

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1, +$5
Record: 21-25, -$388

Another split for a profit.
By my calculations, I now only need about 77 more of these splits and I'll be back in black!

TOUGH win in Az last night.
I do my first score check and I see it's top of the ninth, 0-0. I check the box score and see Az has only two hits. I've held them to two hits and can't get an easy W??!!
But . . . no problem, Cin has men on first and second, no outs.
But . . . opportunity squandered. They fail to score and I'm in danger of losing in the bottom of the ninth.

I survive the ninth. I get a run in the top of the tenth to lead 1-0, and have a man on third, one out.
A simple fly ball to the outfield gives me an insurance run, but, no, opportunity squandered.

Bottom of the tenth, one out in and I'm two outs from the money. But . . . double, run scored. opportunity squandered.

Top 11 and I plate TWO runs. Up 3-1, I should get the W now, right? No.
Bottom 11, two outs, men on first and third. I'm only one out from the money.
Two strikes on the batter and I'm only one strike from the money. But . . . wild pitch and some other stuff, it's 3-3, OPPORTUNITY SQUANDERED!!!
And I'm thinking, "I am sooo screwed on this one."

Top 12 and I manage to score two runs again. This time I HAVE to be gold, right Jerry?
Yes. Az goes down 1,2,3 in the bottom of the inning.
A win, but a tough, frustrating one. But that's part of the fun of it, no?


GP: 33-37, +$31

Today, GP has SD +120

And I have two 5WH spots (10-3, +$471) with NYY -138 and SF (line N/A yet)
NYY 2-0 in this spot, SF 0-1
Record for run line on 5WH is 6-7, so using the run line to avoid high $ on Home Favs is not profitable. But . . . SF has won by 2 or > in 4 of their current 5 game W streak while KC has lost 4 in a row, ALL by 2 or >.
SF has a lefty on the mound and KC is 6-11 (35%) vs left-handers.

SF was the WORST 5WH team last year, but that was then, this is now?

Buys:
SF -1' (will add price when available)