Monday Service Plays 10-20-08
- Thread starter Danny Dice
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- Apr 7, 2008
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Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots - Monday October 20, 2008 8:35 pm
Pick: 3 units TOTAL: Under 48.5 (-110)
With it being tough to pick a victorious side in this match-up, we look to the total, and we already see the typical MNF Over betting pattern of the "public" at work, with the totals line rising and now at 48.5, a half point over the key totals # of 48. While we recognize that Denver (and their "hot" QB Jay Cutler) has posted some pretty impressive offensive #s earlier in the season, while their defense has been pretty generous (ranked #30 in NFL), and that's what's probably the basis for some of the "over money" on this game, we don't believe that's enough justification to bet that there will be > 48 total points scored tonight. And the fact that much of that over money is also coming from casual bettors who plan to watch the game and want their "action" on it to be on the over (because they like to see lots of scoring) obviously does not give an over play on this game any credibility, either.
While we acknowledge that NE has been an "in and out" team so far TY and has been much more difficult to handicap, both ATS and totals-wise, than was LY's high scoring group of offensive playmakers aka the "Brady bunch," we need to recognize that Pats' only high scoring effort TY was against the SF Niners, whose "matador" defense and TO prone QB have given up an average of 32 points in their last 4 games. Other than that, the Pats offense has done very little, certainly not enough to justify this high totals line.
Getting back to Denver, while we acknowledge that they have been a road over lately (6-3-1 over in last 10 roadies, covering LY and their two road games TY, both overs), we need to look at what Broncos have been doing lately as well, and that has not been engaging in high scoring "shoot outs" -- far from it, as they have gone under in their last two, with 41 points scored LW vs Jags and a scant 29 in their 16-13 win over Tampa Bay the week before. And it's not like Denver is a low scoring team at home, already having had two home shootouts TY (one for 77 points vs SD and one for 66 vs NO). But before we continue, just a word about that Jags-Denver game LW, which produced our biggest NFL payday of the year (7-0 for + 19 units with all of our official and unofficial picks for that game) -- not only "official" wins on Jags, both ATS and money line, as well as on on the full game under, but also "unofficial" wins on the following plays recommended as part of our Jags/under betting attack strategy contained in our pick write ups -- the first half under, Denver under on indiv team totals line, and both a Jags to under teaser and parlay, with our betting attack strategy for that game producing a "perfect storm" of plays which collectively went 7-0 fpr +19 units (and we invite you to go to Nite Owl's page on this site to verify that by reading our write-ups for those victorious picks). Our point here (in addition to a bit of self-promotion) is that Denver is by no means an "automatic over," like they were perceived by most to be just three weeks ago. There are two primary reasons for this --
1. their opponents realize that the best way to beat Denver is with a ball control offense that both "eats" time off the clock and limits Denver's offensive possessions (which is precisely what both Tampa and Jags did successfully, although Tampa's offense let them down, scoring only 13 in that 16-13 loss), a strategy which leads to shorter games and less scoring, and thus unders. NE's Bill Belichek, being a smart coach, is fully aware of this, even w/o his "spy cam," and will undoubtedly integrate this type of strategy into his offensive game plan.
2. A major component of Denver's high-powered offense, its receiving corps, has been hit with a rash of injuries lately, with the following key skill players officially listed as "questionable" for this game (and even if they do play, how much will their effectiveness be limited by their injuries?)-- WR Royal (ankle), who already has 30 catches TY, and TE Scheffler (groin), neither of whom played LW, and WR Stokely, who left LW's game with a concussion after a hard hit. So with many of their "guns" either on the sideline or not fully "loaded," we're not really expecting a "shootout" type performance even from the Denver offense. With that being the case, Denver's defense knows they have to "step it up" to keep their team in this game.
So based on the foregoing, we believe the best line value in this game in with the under at the current line of 48.5, which we recommend for 3 units. But it doesn't stop there, as we will have a full betting attack strategy for this game when we update our write up later today, for our subscribers. And this pick, updated with that full betting attack strategy containing at least five plays for 10> units, can be yours by purchasing our one day NFL pass, priced at just $25 for today.
One final note, primarliy a reminder for our subscribers, is that if you took our advice yesterday and teased Tampa Bay (a victory on the teased line of -3.5 or -4) last night with the under for this game, you already have a play on the under in this game at a totals line of 55 or 55.5, so you may not want to add to your "under exposure" with another play on the under at 48.5.
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots - Monday October 20, 2008 8:35 pm
Pick: 3 units TOTAL: Under 48.5 (-110)
With it being tough to pick a victorious side in this match-up, we look to the total, and we already see the typical MNF Over betting pattern of the "public" at work, with the totals line rising and now at 48.5, a half point over the key totals # of 48. While we recognize that Denver (and their "hot" QB Jay Cutler) has posted some pretty impressive offensive #s earlier in the season, while their defense has been pretty generous (ranked #30 in NFL), and that's what's probably the basis for some of the "over money" on this game, we don't believe that's enough justification to bet that there will be > 48 total points scored tonight. And the fact that much of that over money is also coming from casual bettors who plan to watch the game and want their "action" on it to be on the over (because they like to see lots of scoring) obviously does not give an over play on this game any credibility, either.
While we acknowledge that NE has been an "in and out" team so far TY and has been much more difficult to handicap, both ATS and totals-wise, than was LY's high scoring group of offensive playmakers aka the "Brady bunch," we need to recognize that Pats' only high scoring effort TY was against the SF Niners, whose "matador" defense and TO prone QB have given up an average of 32 points in their last 4 games. Other than that, the Pats offense has done very little, certainly not enough to justify this high totals line.
Getting back to Denver, while we acknowledge that they have been a road over lately (6-3-1 over in last 10 roadies, covering LY and their two road games TY, both overs), we need to look at what Broncos have been doing lately as well, and that has not been engaging in high scoring "shoot outs" -- far from it, as they have gone under in their last two, with 41 points scored LW vs Jags and a scant 29 in their 16-13 win over Tampa Bay the week before. And it's not like Denver is a low scoring team at home, already having had two home shootouts TY (one for 77 points vs SD and one for 66 vs NO). But before we continue, just a word about that Jags-Denver game LW, which produced our biggest NFL payday of the year (7-0 for + 19 units with all of our official and unofficial picks for that game) -- not only "official" wins on Jags, both ATS and money line, as well as on on the full game under, but also "unofficial" wins on the following plays recommended as part of our Jags/under betting attack strategy contained in our pick write ups -- the first half under, Denver under on indiv team totals line, and both a Jags to under teaser and parlay, with our betting attack strategy for that game producing a "perfect storm" of plays which collectively went 7-0 fpr +19 units (and we invite you to go to Nite Owl's page on this site to verify that by reading our write-ups for those victorious picks). Our point here (in addition to a bit of self-promotion) is that Denver is by no means an "automatic over," like they were perceived by most to be just three weeks ago. There are two primary reasons for this --
1. their opponents realize that the best way to beat Denver is with a ball control offense that both "eats" time off the clock and limits Denver's offensive possessions (which is precisely what both Tampa and Jags did successfully, although Tampa's offense let them down, scoring only 13 in that 16-13 loss), a strategy which leads to shorter games and less scoring, and thus unders. NE's Bill Belichek, being a smart coach, is fully aware of this, even w/o his "spy cam," and will undoubtedly integrate this type of strategy into his offensive game plan.
2. A major component of Denver's high-powered offense, its receiving corps, has been hit with a rash of injuries lately, with the following key skill players officially listed as "questionable" for this game (and even if they do play, how much will their effectiveness be limited by their injuries?)-- WR Royal (ankle), who already has 30 catches TY, and TE Scheffler (groin), neither of whom played LW, and WR Stokely, who left LW's game with a concussion after a hard hit. So with many of their "guns" either on the sideline or not fully "loaded," we're not really expecting a "shootout" type performance even from the Denver offense. With that being the case, Denver's defense knows they have to "step it up" to keep their team in this game.
So based on the foregoing, we believe the best line value in this game in with the under at the current line of 48.5, which we recommend for 3 units. But it doesn't stop there, as we will have a full betting attack strategy for this game when we update our write up later today, for our subscribers. And this pick, updated with that full betting attack strategy containing at least five plays for 10> units, can be yours by purchasing our one day NFL pass, priced at just $25 for today.
One final note, primarliy a reminder for our subscribers, is that if you took our advice yesterday and teased Tampa Bay (a victory on the teased line of -3.5 or -4) last night with the under for this game, you already have a play on the under in this game at a totals line of 55 or 55.5, so you may not want to add to your "under exposure" with another play on the under at 48.5.
- Apr 7, 2008
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SPORTS ADVISORS
Denver (4-2, 2-4 ATS) at New England (3-2, 2-3 ATS)
Two perennial AFC powers square off at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., when the Broncos take on the Patriots with both teams in need of a victory.
Both squads have lost two of their last three games, with the Patriots falling 30-10 last Sunday night in San Diego as a six-point underdog, while the Broncos were losing 24-17 to the Jaguars as a 3?-point home chalk. Denver is mired in an 0-4 ATS slide, while the Patriots have alternated spread-covers this season.
Denver is putting up 27.7 points and nearly 400 total yards per contest, but it?s been the defense that has dropped the ball for Mike Shanahan?s team, giving up 25.7 points and 394.7 yards per outing. Third-year QB Jay Cutler has put up impressive numbers through six games, with 1,693 passing yards, 12 TDs and five INTs.
Bill Belichick?s defense has given up 89 points in its last three games, including 38 to Miami the last time the Pats were in Foxborough, the result being a 38-13 loss as 12?-point favorites. And without reigning league MVP Tom Brady, New England?s offense isn?t exactly lighting up the scoreboard like last season, averaging just 17.8 points and 298 yards per game. QB Matt Cassel has been very shaky in place of Brady, averaging 182 passing ypg with three TDs and four INTs through six contests.
Denver has owned this rivalry lately, winning five of the last six meetings SU and ATS dating back to 2001, including taking the last three by at least eight points. The last time these two met was two seasons ago in New England, when the Broncos earned a 17-7 victory as 6?-point road ?dogs. Going back to 1997, the Broncos are 7-3 SU and ATS against the Pats, and the straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in those 10 clashes.
Denver is 6-20 SU and 9-16-1 ATS on the road in the Monday night spotlight, while the Patriots are 6-8 SU and 5-8-1 ATS at home.
The Broncos are on ATS slides of 7-22-1 overall, 1-5 on the highway 3-11 against teams with a winning record, 1-5 in October and 1-4-1 against AFC competition. Conversely, the Patriots are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 after a straight-up defeat and 18-5-1 ATS in their last 24 October outings, but they are on pointspread slides of 2-9 overall, 0-7 at Gillette Stadium, and 2-6 following a non-cover.
The under is 5-2 the last seven times Denver has been on Monday night, but otherwise the Broncos sport ?over? streaks of 20-6-1 overall, 7-2 on the road, 12-3 against the AFC, 7-3-1 against teams with a winning record and 10-2-1 following a straight-up loss. On the flip side, New England is on ?under? runs of 8-3-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home, 7-1-1 against the AFC and 4-1 following a non-cover.
In head-to-head action between these teams, the over is 7-3 in the last 10 battles overall, but the under has been the play in four of the last five meetings in New England.
Finally, the over is a perfect 7-0 on Monday nights this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
Denver (4-2, 2-4 ATS) at New England (3-2, 2-3 ATS)
Two perennial AFC powers square off at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., when the Broncos take on the Patriots with both teams in need of a victory.
Both squads have lost two of their last three games, with the Patriots falling 30-10 last Sunday night in San Diego as a six-point underdog, while the Broncos were losing 24-17 to the Jaguars as a 3?-point home chalk. Denver is mired in an 0-4 ATS slide, while the Patriots have alternated spread-covers this season.
Denver is putting up 27.7 points and nearly 400 total yards per contest, but it?s been the defense that has dropped the ball for Mike Shanahan?s team, giving up 25.7 points and 394.7 yards per outing. Third-year QB Jay Cutler has put up impressive numbers through six games, with 1,693 passing yards, 12 TDs and five INTs.
Bill Belichick?s defense has given up 89 points in its last three games, including 38 to Miami the last time the Pats were in Foxborough, the result being a 38-13 loss as 12?-point favorites. And without reigning league MVP Tom Brady, New England?s offense isn?t exactly lighting up the scoreboard like last season, averaging just 17.8 points and 298 yards per game. QB Matt Cassel has been very shaky in place of Brady, averaging 182 passing ypg with three TDs and four INTs through six contests.
Denver has owned this rivalry lately, winning five of the last six meetings SU and ATS dating back to 2001, including taking the last three by at least eight points. The last time these two met was two seasons ago in New England, when the Broncos earned a 17-7 victory as 6?-point road ?dogs. Going back to 1997, the Broncos are 7-3 SU and ATS against the Pats, and the straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in those 10 clashes.
Denver is 6-20 SU and 9-16-1 ATS on the road in the Monday night spotlight, while the Patriots are 6-8 SU and 5-8-1 ATS at home.
The Broncos are on ATS slides of 7-22-1 overall, 1-5 on the highway 3-11 against teams with a winning record, 1-5 in October and 1-4-1 against AFC competition. Conversely, the Patriots are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 after a straight-up defeat and 18-5-1 ATS in their last 24 October outings, but they are on pointspread slides of 2-9 overall, 0-7 at Gillette Stadium, and 2-6 following a non-cover.
The under is 5-2 the last seven times Denver has been on Monday night, but otherwise the Broncos sport ?over? streaks of 20-6-1 overall, 7-2 on the road, 12-3 against the AFC, 7-3-1 against teams with a winning record and 10-2-1 following a straight-up loss. On the flip side, New England is on ?under? runs of 8-3-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home, 7-1-1 against the AFC and 4-1 following a non-cover.
In head-to-head action between these teams, the over is 7-3 in the last 10 battles overall, but the under has been the play in four of the last five meetings in New England.
Finally, the over is a perfect 7-0 on Monday nights this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
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GINA
Monday, October 20th 8:30 p.m. est.
Denver Broncos (4-2) at New England Patriots (3-2)
The Broncos play terrible away from home, 1-5 both straight-up and against the spread in their last six games, but have been in command of the Patriots. Denver is 5-1 both straight-up and against the spread in the last six meetings and has covered the last five games in Foxborough. Go with Denver. New England has struggle with the Bronco?s in the past and now with a weakened offense since Brady?s knee injury, averaging 17.7 points per game will be in worse shape to handle the Broncos.
Denver Broncos +3
Monday, October 20th 8:30 p.m. est.
Denver Broncos (4-2) at New England Patriots (3-2)
The Broncos play terrible away from home, 1-5 both straight-up and against the spread in their last six games, but have been in command of the Patriots. Denver is 5-1 both straight-up and against the spread in the last six meetings and has covered the last five games in Foxborough. Go with Denver. New England has struggle with the Bronco?s in the past and now with a weakened offense since Brady?s knee injury, averaging 17.7 points per game will be in worse shape to handle the Broncos.
Denver Broncos +3
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Mon, 10/20/08 - 10:35 PMRocky Atkinson | NHL Money Line
double-dime bet57 COL (-125)Bodog vs 58 LOS
Analysis:
Colorado @ Los Angeles 10:35 PM EST
Play On: 3* Colorado -125
Los Angeles is 12-40 last 3 years after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game. Avalanche are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. Avalanche are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Pacific. Avalanche are 13-5 in their last 18 games following a win. Kings are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. Western Conference. Kings are 15-43 in their last 58 games following a win. Kings are 1-5 in their last 6 Monday games. Kings are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. Northwest. We'll play Colorado for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
double-dime bet57 COL (-125)Bodog vs 58 LOS
Analysis:
Colorado @ Los Angeles 10:35 PM EST
Play On: 3* Colorado -125
Los Angeles is 12-40 last 3 years after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game. Avalanche are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. Avalanche are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Pacific. Avalanche are 13-5 in their last 18 games following a win. Kings are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. Western Conference. Kings are 15-43 in their last 58 games following a win. Kings are 1-5 in their last 6 Monday games. Kings are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. Northwest. We'll play Colorado for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
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Mon, 10/20/08 - 10:35 PMNick "BookieKiller" Parsons | NHL Total
double-dime bet58 LOS / 57 COL Under 6.0 Bodog
Analysis: UNDER 6 goals in Los Angeles ? Under new coach Terry Murray, the Kings have been phenomenal on the penalty kill this season. They have not allowed a power play goal this entire season as they have killed off all 19 chances through the first four games of this season! Offensively, the Kings have scored just four power play goals this season and three of those came against Anaheim. Los Angeles beat the Ducks 6-3 in that game because Anaheim, as usual, decided to get ?penalty-happy?. The Ducks continued their trend from last season as being one of the most penalized teams in the league. The Kings took advantage and won that game in a rout. However, take a look at the Kings other two games for a ?true look? into what their offense is doing this season. Los Angeles managed a total of just one goal in their first two games this season. Then, in their most recent game, the Kings were actually down 3-1 with about 22 minutes to go in the game before rallying for two goals to send the game into overtime where they won 4-3. As you can see, the Kings tendency has been to rely on their defense and penalty killing (when needed) and so tonight?s total (at a 6) is offering some significant line value for a play on the under! The Kings offense, coupled with the fact that they?ve allowed just ten goals in four games this season, just does not justify this high of a total. Certainly the visiting Avalanche have more of a deserved reputation for playing more ?open ice? higher-scoring games but the Kings, at home, should be able to dictate the tempo in this one. Also, while it is true that the Avalanche have allowed a lot of goals this season, they have shown the ability to play ?cleaner? on defense too as they held the Oilers to just three goals in a tight 3-2 loss at Edmonton eight days ago. Also, this past week the Avs did a good job in holding a ?backs to the wall? Flyers club to just two goals in a big home win for Colorado. The point is that if the Kings lull the Avs into a low-scoring, grind-it-out type game we should not be surprised here. Couple that with a huge total posted on this game and the play here is clearly the U-N-D-E-R!
double-dime bet58 LOS / 57 COL Under 6.0 Bodog
Analysis: UNDER 6 goals in Los Angeles ? Under new coach Terry Murray, the Kings have been phenomenal on the penalty kill this season. They have not allowed a power play goal this entire season as they have killed off all 19 chances through the first four games of this season! Offensively, the Kings have scored just four power play goals this season and three of those came against Anaheim. Los Angeles beat the Ducks 6-3 in that game because Anaheim, as usual, decided to get ?penalty-happy?. The Ducks continued their trend from last season as being one of the most penalized teams in the league. The Kings took advantage and won that game in a rout. However, take a look at the Kings other two games for a ?true look? into what their offense is doing this season. Los Angeles managed a total of just one goal in their first two games this season. Then, in their most recent game, the Kings were actually down 3-1 with about 22 minutes to go in the game before rallying for two goals to send the game into overtime where they won 4-3. As you can see, the Kings tendency has been to rely on their defense and penalty killing (when needed) and so tonight?s total (at a 6) is offering some significant line value for a play on the under! The Kings offense, coupled with the fact that they?ve allowed just ten goals in four games this season, just does not justify this high of a total. Certainly the visiting Avalanche have more of a deserved reputation for playing more ?open ice? higher-scoring games but the Kings, at home, should be able to dictate the tempo in this one. Also, while it is true that the Avalanche have allowed a lot of goals this season, they have shown the ability to play ?cleaner? on defense too as they held the Oilers to just three goals in a tight 3-2 loss at Edmonton eight days ago. Also, this past week the Avs did a good job in holding a ?backs to the wall? Flyers club to just two goals in a big home win for Colorado. The point is that if the Kings lull the Avs into a low-scoring, grind-it-out type game we should not be surprised here. Couple that with a huge total posted on this game and the play here is clearly the U-N-D-E-R!
