Monday's MLB Research
IndianCowboy
Toronto vs. Baltimore
Litsh faces Liz here as Toronto hits the road off of a big win at Tampa Bay. Litsch lasted less than 3 innings against the Yankees in his last start, and before that, he gave up 6 runs in just over 5 innings, he is 1-5-2 over his last 8 starts and has struggled, do keep in mind though that the Bluejays struggle in scoring runs overall, Liz has had horrendous starts himself against Texas at home where he gave up 4 runs in less than 4 innings and at Boston where he gave up 8 runs in just over 2 innings. Liz has pitched in 7 straight overs and 9 of 10 overs, suprisingly though the public favors the under a bit more, despite Liz and Litsch both giving up their fair share of runs lately, one could expect them to bounce-back here, but I just don't see it - lean on the over here.
Minny vs. New York
I tell you what, I love watching the Twins play. They have the knack of coming back and winning ballgames which the old braves used to have and it is fun watching this team with their pitching, defense and timely hitting. Blackburn has pitched 3 straight quality starts, I don't beleive he's ever put together 4 straight quality starts, but he did pitch great at Detroit and at Boston, he also beat the Yankees earlier this year by holding them to just 1 run in a 5-1 victory, also cashing in as a +104 dog, Ponson, known as the proverbial ******* because of his crappy attitude towards others in the clubhouse, is 5-1 this year and has an ERA just under 4 remarkably. The public is backing the Yankees at a 2:1 clip here, Ponson has helped his team win their last 7 of 10 starts, and the Yankees to win their last 3, but he rarely puts together back to back wins, I actually lean on the kid here and the Twins as I just trust Blackburn more, even though the Yankees have a bit of revenge against him.
Oakland vs. Tampa Bay
I am tempted to take Oakland just on the pure dog price alone here hovering around +180 right now, granted, Tampa Bay does come off a beat down at home so they will likely be fired up in facing Eveland, keep in mind that Eveland pitched a complete game 3 hitter and gave up just 1 run when he faced TB at home last time so the Rays have revenge in that aspect as well, Eveland does come off a loss though and he has not put together back to back losses at least in his last 10 starts, and in fact, his team has not lost back to back ballgames when he has pitched all year:
7/12/2008 LAA S L 1-4 L 103
7/7/2008 SEA W 4-3 W -138
7/2/2008 @ LAA S ND 4-7 L 126
6/27/2008 SF W 4-1 W -166
6/21/2008 FLA ND 4-6 L -142
6/15/2008 @ SF W 5-3 W -118
6/10/2008 NYY L 1-3 L 112
6/3/2008 DET ND 5-4 W -115
5/29/2008 TOR L 0-12 L -123
5/21/2008 TB W 9-1 W -119
You should see a trend here, of a win, loss, win, loss, etc... That doesn't mean it carries today, it just means typically he shows up afte his team lost from his previous start. Kaz has lost back to back starts and he is looking to bounce-back after a tough loss at Cleveland and before that he lost to the Yankees despite pitching well. I actually lean on the A's here despite the Drays having revenge on young Eveland from that complete game he pitched against them back on may, a bit tempted at the A's +1.5 here as well.
Detroit vs. Kansas City
Miner makes his first start in quite some time for the Tigers tomorrow and it's on the road at KC, the public doesn't seem to mind though as they back him at 58%, he was 7-6 last year, Hochevar pitched great against Seatlte in his last start at home, but who doesn't, plus, he has a tendency to give up far too many hits despite being able to pick up some wins, this game could go either way, wouldn't be surprised to see an over as Hochevar comes off a great start, frankly a tossup game.
Texas vs. White Sox
Texas comes into this game with 51 wins, heck, just 3 less than the White Sox, Hurley has some great stats in that he gives up about a hit an inning, but overall has pitched very well for the Rangers this year, he beat Philly at home as a +113 underdog as the rangers won 5-1, he gave up 2 runs at Houston and 2 runs to Atlanta at home. Vasquez comes off a terrible start at KC, so he is on a bounce-back here, but there is no reason why he should be favored by this much, after all the Ranger offense is just as good, and the Hurley kid has pitched far better than Vasquez thus far, heck, the White sox have not faced Hurley this year as well so advanage Hurley, don't get me wrong, Vasquez is on a bounce-back here so one will be playing with fire a bit, and he has not lost back to back ballgames in over 10 games, if anything a lean on the rangers for pure value despite vasquez being on the bounce-back and a small lean on the under as well.
Cleveland vs. Angels
The Indians had a good home stand of late, but now have to hit the road where they are 17-32 on the year, Byrd is 3-10 on the year and the juice on Santana shows how bad the year has been for the Indians and Byrd, Byrd hasn't picked up a win since June 6th, the Indians have lost 9 of the last 10 games he has started, he has been giving up a ton of hits and has not put together back to back quality starts in quite some time and his last start can be considered quality for his standards this year, Santana is 11-3 this year and comes off a dominating performance at Oakland where he gave up 0 runs in 7 innings in what was a bounce-back game for him, he has at times though been having trouble putting together back to back starts, but one has to lean on the indians run-line here, i'm not a fan of the run-line but it has value here. This is likely to be a high scoring game as an 8.5 line with Byrd is fairly small. The question is, can the Indians score as the Angels should be able to get to Byrd.
Bostonvs. Seattle
Nearly 70% favor Boston here on the road off a loss, of course, I'm glad they lost considering I was on the Angels for my POD, Lester comes off a fortunate 6-5 win at home against Minny in his last start, but he is on for a bounce-back here, Wash had a great start against KC and picked up a no-decision besides pitching exceptionally well as the bullpen blew it for him late, he has pitched 7 of 9 quality starts of late and hasn't pitched a back to back over ballgame since May 25th. Heck, the guy had pitched in 7 straight unders before the last over at KC and that game truly shouldn't have gone over. I actually lean on the under here, as this should be a competitive pitching contest.
