Monday Service Plays 7/21/08

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GAMBLERS WORLD

TIP OF THE DAY

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals

A winning streak will be on the line for the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday when they battle the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium.

Righthander Seth McClung will take the mound for the Brewers to start this game. McClung is 4-4 this season with a 4.39 ERA.

It'll be Joel Pineiro toeing the rubber for the Cardinals in this contest. Righthander Pineiro is 3-4 with a 4.52 ERA so far this season.

Oddsmakers currently have the Cardinals listed as 125-moneyline favorites versus the Brewers, while the game's total is sitting at 9.

The Brewers defeated San Francisco 7-4 as a +125 underdog on Sunday. The 11 runs scored went OVER the posted over/under total (7.5).

Ryan Braun homered and had five RBI for Milwaukee, while Manny Parra allowed two runs on seven hits, while striking out nine in seven 2-3 innings.

The Cardinals defeated San Diego 9-5 as a -130 favorite on Sunday. The 14 runs scored went OVER the posted over/under total (9.5).

Aaron Miles hit a walk-off grand slam home run in the bottom of the ninth inning for St. Louis, while Troy Glaus hit a three-run home run in the win

 

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Executive

250% Yankees

 

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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

MLB Total
triple-dime bet KAN / DET Under 9.5

UNDER Royals/Tigers

The Tigers just cant solve the Royals this season. Theyre 0-6 against them and have averaged less than two runs per game! Overall, the games between Detroit and Kansas City have averaged about six runs per game and indeed there is some value here with going under the big number. Both teams are coming into this series off of some impressive offensive performances in their first series after the All Star Break. Detroit scored 25 runs in splitting their four game set with the Orioles. The Royals scored 22 runs in taking two of three from the White Sox. However, good pitching shuts down good hitting and tonights pitching match-up has the makings of a pitchers duel even though the starters involved tonight are not where youd normally think to look for a pitchers duel. Zach Miner is getting a chance to earn the #5 spot in the Tigers rotation and hes certainly earned it. Miner has been coming out of the bullpen and hes definitely been getting the job done! Hes 2-1 in his last 19 appearances with a stellar 0.68 ERA. In starting 17 games over the past three seasons Miner compiled a 7-7 record. However, sometimes a long stint in the bullpen is what rejuvenates a pitcher who wants badly to be in the starting role. This is precisely what we see with this situation with Miner and we expect him to stay hot, just like he was out of the bullpen, and mow down the Royals on Monday. As for the Kansas City pitching situation, the Royals are pretty well set with Luke Hochevar. His overall numbers this season may not appear that impressive but the right-hander has great stuff and hes grown as the season has gone on. Hochevar is finally learning to trust his stuff and he showed this once again in bouncing back from a couple of rough outings by totally dominating Seattle in his most recent start on July 11th. Hochevar is 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA against the Tigers and he already beat them at Kauffman Stadium back in May. Look for more of the same here. Hochevar has been much tougher at home than on the road and his 4-2 record at Kauffman Stadium with a 3.48 ERA is a sign of things to come. Though most wont think of a pitchers duel with these two hurlers on the mound, you can see from the above why one is quite likely! With the extra line value being offered with this big total the UNDER is the total of the month!

 

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BIG AL

Braves vs. Marlins (MLB) Monday July 21nd, 2008 7:10 ET
Pick: Money Line Braves

At 7:10pm our complimentary selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Florida Marlins. You need a computerized scorecard to keep up with the ever-changing Florida Marlins rotation. Originally, Andrew Miller was supposed to start Sunday's game against the Phils, but Miller is now to be placed on the DL, so righthander Josh Johnson, who just came back off the DL after Tommy John surgery (he is attempting less than a year recovery time - which is rare) will have his start moved up from Monday to Sunday which means 21-year-old rookie righthander Chris Volstad will get the start in this game at home against the Braves. Volstad may be 2-0 with an ERA of 0.84 so far in his Major League debut season, but those stats are most likely deceiving as nothing in Volstad's minor league numbers indicates that he is ready for a stint as a regular starter in the Majors. Last year in single A ball, Volstad was 8-9 with a 4.50 ERA and this year he has improved slightly to go 4-4 at double A ball. But it is a long way from that level to facing the likes of Chipper Jones and Mark Texeira. The Braves have had their own share of pitching injuries this season, and today's starter, righthander Jorge Campillo was doubtful for this start after fouling a ball of his foot last Sunday, but he has recovered and will make the start today, which is good news for Atlanta who have continued to struggle on the road and should benefit from having him on the mound as Campillo is one of Atlanta's best road performers with a 1.80 ERA in four starts away from Turner Field this season.

Take the Braves.

 

[tnvn1994]

Steven Budin-CEO

MONDAY'S PICK
25 DIME
NEW YORK YANKEES

PAID!

 

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Dwayne Bryant



7:05 PM ET
MLB
Milwaukee Brewers (McClung) at St. Louis Cardinals (Pineiro)
Free Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (Listed Pitchers) +107

The Brewers are a solid road dog here. They are coming off a three-game sweep of the Giants and they scored 24 runs in that sweep at San Francisco. Milwaukee has now won five of its last six on the road and they've won five of their last seven meetings with the Cards. Ryan Braun is batting .391 (18-for-46) with four home runs, five doubles and 13 RBIs in his last 11 games. He's fared even better against the Cardinals, as he has hit two home runs in each of his last two games against them and is batting .413 (31-for-75) with seven homers and 20 RBIs in 18 career games vs. St. Louis.
Milwaukee starter Seth McClung has pitched well lately, posting a 3.86 ERA in his three July starts, but he has only received three total runs of support in those games. This will be McClung's first career start against the Cardinals, but he made two relief appearances against them in April, allowing two hits in four scoreless innings.
St. Louis counters with Joel Pineiro, who has just one victory in his last 11 starts. Pineiro's home numbers (3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .323 OBP) are actually slightly worse than McClung's road numbers (3.28 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .318 OBP). Pineiro has struggled a bit in his last three starts, sporting a 5.29 ERA, 1.94 WHIP and .425 OBP.
The Brewers are 26-9 in their last 35 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and they're 11-3 in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 1-5 in Pineiro's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 1-5 in Pineiro's last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Take Milwaukee/McClung over St. Louis/Pineiro.

 

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Robert Ross

Game: Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees Jul 21 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: New York Yankees
Reason: Yanks have taken five of last seven at home from the Twins. MINNESOTA is 20-48 against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons and 13-24 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 7 or more hits/start over the last 2 seasons. Take New York.

 

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Handicapper: Slade Henning
Atlanta Braves vs. Florida Marlins (MLB) - 7:10 PM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: -108 Florida Marlins Play Title: Southcoast Sports MLB Play of the Day!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Next MLB Release will be on Tuesday at 4:00 P.M. CST!!!

#952 Florida Marlins -108

3-Units (6:10 P.M. CST)

It will be interesting to see how Florida's top pitching prospect will fair in his third appearance of the season. Chris Volstad has shown promise in one relief appearance and one start so for this season. He has allowed one earned run over 10 innings of work, holding opposing hitters to a .194 batting average. His sinking fastball got the job done in the minors, and now it seems to be working in the majors. It's still early to make a judgement for, or against him, but from the looks of things, he will have a promising career at this level. Volstad will be opposed by Atlanta's Jorge Campillo. Campillo has pitched decently on the season, but has given up 4 home runs over his last 3 games. He will be facing a Florida team that loves to hit homers. The last time he faced them he lasted just 4 innings after giving up two long balls and 4 earned runs. The Braves are hitting .210 and scoring 3.92 runs a game vs righties over their last 10 games, while Florida is hitting .257 and scoring 4.33 runs a game vs righties over their last 10. Atlanta is still one of the worst road teams in the Majors, while Florida is strong in the late innings with a solid bullpen.

Take the Florida Marlins -108 for 3-Units!



Thanks and Good Luck

Slade

Southcoast Sports

 

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wunderdogsports


Game: San Diego at Cincinnati (7:05 PM Eastern)


Pick: 3 units on Cincinnati -141 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.1)

What a difference a year makes, as this San Diego team just keeps putting a bigger number in the loss column. After riding high on a season's best 13-6 run, the Padres have fallen back to what we have known them to be this season - a poor team that just doesn?t' score, and when they do they lose anyway. Their current run is 6-23, with six-straight in the loss column. The Pads have scored five runs or more in their last three, a feat they have accomplished only twice before all season. However, both times they did, it was followed by a loss. Cincinnati enters playing very well at 12-7 over their last 19, and averaging 6.6 runs per game over their last eight. The Reds certainly have enough to get the win here.


Game: Atlanta at Florida (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Florida -111 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 4.5)

Anytime you get a chance to lay short odds playing against the Braves on the road, it is worth a long look. The Braves were humiliated at home by the lowly Nats dropping the last two of a three-game set in Atlanta. The Braves road resume is not pretty, where they have been an anemic 15-32 on the season. Florida continues to surprise just a half game out in the East, and look like a team that?s improving. What they have done is beat the bad teams at home consistently, having logged a 21-11 mark against teams with a losing record on the season at home. They are playing superb baseball right now winners of eight of their last 11 games, and we will ride them at home in this one.

Game: Atlanta at Florida (7:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Florida -1.5 runs +180 (runline) (risk 3 to win 5.4)

We indicated why Florida was a valued choice against the moneyline here, so it is hard to resist the nearly two-to-one dog role they face vs. the runline. The value is increased off the fact that the Marlins have been a momentum-based home team all season. They are 22-12 against the -1.5 runline at home when they are playing their fourth straight at home or more.

Game: Boston at Seattle (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Seattle +133 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4)

It is hard to figure out this Boston team, but why not take advantage of the perception vs. the reality? Boston is a good team, but not on the road. They have been nearly unbeatable at home producing a 36-11 mark and a winning percentage of 76.6%. They have been a horrible road team at 21-32 producing a winning percentage of 39.6%. Recently, their road woes have been even worse as they have now produced just two wins in their last 12 road games. The bottom line is at this loss rate on the road projected over 162 games, they would lose nearly 100. A team like that would never be favored on the road, especially in this range hence the value. You must also remember that this is a team that has already taken two of three at home over Boston already this season. There is just too much value here to pass this one up.

Game: Boston at Seattle (10:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Seattle +1.5 runs -131 (runline) (risk 5 to win 3.8)

Our logic against the moneyline here prevails against the runline as well, and a chance to double-dip a game that features a lot of value on the home team. Add in the fact that Boston strands a lot of base runners this season, and has scored three runs or less in three straight games. Teams in this situation have been 137-210 to the -1.5 runline, so more value on Seattle against the runline as well. Seattle has also feasted at home on the runline against teams that strand 7.5 runners a game or more such as Boston, where they are 62-37 against the runline over such teams.

 

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Handicapper: Sean Higgs
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Total: 10/103 Over Play Title: ***AL East Total of the Week***
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Going OVER here. These two teams pound each others pitching. They have gone over 12 of the last 13 and 5 of the last 6 in Camden Yards. Liz has 9.95 ERA in his last six starts. Toronto lost last three Litsch starts (0-2, 11.19). Liz has gone over in 10 of his last 11 and Litsch has gone 4-1-1 over his last 6. Blue Jays / O's as my AL East Total of the Week!

 

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Tony George

Mon, 07/21/08 - 8:10 PMTony George | MLB Total
dime bet972 KAN / 971 DET Over 9.5 BetUS
Analysis:


OVER 9.5 Kansas City / Detroit

I like the over here. Both teams are hot at the plate and KC produced some serious offense against the White Sox over the weekend and are changing up the batting order and it is working. Detroit is 7-3 with overs the last 3 games and both teams against right handers are batting .278 or higher as a team the last 10 games combined. Neither pticher is an ace here either, so we like the over and lots of offense in this one tonight in a steamy KC.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER..thanks and good luck..Tony George

 

[the duke]

KELSO

25 units Astros
5 units Marlins
4 units Cubs
3 units White Sox over

 

[the duke]

Vernon Croy

Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona D-Backs (MLB) - 9:40 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -134 Chicago Cubs

20 Units MLB Bookie Buster
Chicago Cubs

20 Units, Take Chicago ML, This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Cubs have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight. Rich Harden (5-1, 2.19 ERA) has pitched solid overall this season and he has an ERA of just 2.35 over his last 3 starts while allowing no earned runs over his last start while lasting 5.3 innings. Randy Johnson (6-7, 5.23 ERA) has struggled at home this season with an ERA of 6.43 over 9 starts and while allowing 63 hits and 11 homeruns over just 49 innings. The Cubs are hitting .285 as a team against lefty starters this season while averaging 6.2 rpg and the D-Backs are just 14-27 when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Cubs are now 24-13 in their last 37 games as a road favorite of -125 to -150 and Randy Johnson's perfect 10-0 record against the Cubs ends tonight.

 

[the duke]

STAN SHARP

NL SHOCKER BIG BET OF THE WEEK
$20.00

Stan Sharp has Won 8 of the last 9 Weeks after finishing last week 3-1. Today Stan is Betting just one game but he is betting it Big as Stan has found his NL Shocker Big Bet of the Week. Stan is 16-9 with his last 25 Plays, 20-11 with his last 31 Plays, 36-20 his last 56 and 12-5 with his last 17 Triple Dime Plays. Talk about consistency! Can you afford to miss Stan's Play today? Since Nov 2nd Stan has gone 147-101 with all his plays. Get STAN'S NL SHOCKER BIG BET OF THE WEEK now for just $20.

Cincinnati Reds

 

[the duke]

Marco D'Angelo

AL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK
$20.00

The Country's Big Play Expert is stepping out with a Big Blowout Play in the American League. Marco went into the South Point at 6 AM this morning and made his BET. For the Baseball Season Marco has netted his clients a Net Profit of 16.65 Units. Marco sees this game as a total Blowout. Get MARCO'S AL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK for just $20.

Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+115)

 

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Handicapper: Steve Merril
Oakland Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) - 7:10 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Total: 7.5/-108 Under Play Title:
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Two struggling offenses and two excellent pitching staffs should lead to a low-scoring game tonight. Despite being in playoff contention, the Athletics have unloaded two star pitchers and it appears this has deflated the team?s morale as Oakland is now 0-5 in their past five games and they have scored just 1, 3, 1, 3, and 1 run in each game for an average of just 1.8 runs per game. Tampa Bay is also struggling as they stand just 2-8 in their past ten games and they have averaged just 2.5 runs per game during that span, including scoring 2 runs or less in 6 of their past 9 games. Both offenses are likely to struggle again tonight as my pitcher performance ratings predict a solid outing for both starters this evening. Oakland?s Dana Eveland has a solid 3.49 ERA in his 19 starts this season with a 12-5-2 Under record. Eveland is averaging only 6 innings per start, but Oakland has a strong bullpen with a 3.34 ERA and 1.23 WHIP that can finish the game. Tampa Bay?s Scott Kazmir is having a fantastic season with a 3.04 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in his 14 starts with a powerful 91-31 strikeout/walk ratio and a 9-5 Under record. Kazmir has been particularly strong at home with a 1.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and a 42-19 K/BB ratio with a 5-2 Under mark. Kazmir got the win in the All-Star game on Tuesday and has five days of rest to recover and prepare for tonight?s start. Even if Kazmir is limited, the D-Rays? excellent bullpen will finish the job as they enter with a 2.25 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home this season.
Play UNDER the total.

 

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STAN SHARP

NL SHOCKER BIG BET OF THE WEEK
$20.00

Stan Sharp has Won 8 of the last 9 Weeks after finishing last week 3-1. Today Stan is Betting just one game but he is betting it Big as Stan has found his NL Shocker Big Bet of the Week. Stan is 16-9 with his last 25 Plays, 20-11 with his last 31 Plays, 36-20 his last 56 and 12-5 with his last 17 Triple Dime Plays. Talk about consistency! Can you afford to miss Stan's Play today? Since Nov 2nd Stan has gone 147-101 with all his plays. Get STAN'S NL SHOCKER BIG BET OF THE WEEK now for just $20.

Cincinnati Reds

I have it on San Diego over Cincy at another site

Mon, 07/21/08 - 7:10 PMStan Sharp | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet953 SDP (+130)SportBet vs 954 CIN
Analysis: Stan is Betting SAN DIEGO today. Stan notes that Cincinnati should be flat coming off big series with the Mets and that Cincinnati starter Homer Bailey has been getting pounded and has a ERA in 15.00 in 2 home starts. TAKE SAN DIEGO as STAN'S NL SHOCKER BIG BET OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

 

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Bob Balfe


Major League Baseball
Cardinals -120 over Brewers
Pineiro/Mcclung


Savannah Sports

2 units on Kansas City -108

 

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MLB: Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals - Royals (Minor/Hochevar) -108 | Unit Value: 2
Game Date: 7/21/2008
Note: The Tigers got their win yesterday with Mr. Ace Guy on the mound and facing the lefty and now they will travel again to play a team that has given them a lot of trouble. The Tigers might be in better position if not for an 0-6 record against the Royals. Detroit, which has been outscored 26-11 in the season series, dropped all three games at Kansas City from May 13th to May 15th. This Tiger team can score and they did at Baltimore but struggled to win 2 out of 4 due to a throwing staff that continues to be very much below par. KC is scoring a lot of runs and they are winning games. They have done so at 5-2 last 7, including taking 2 of 3 at Chicago. This bunch is not scared of the Big Bad Tiger and they certainly will not be verses a guy that they have tagged at will over his career, and one that has not been in a starting position very often. Detroit is ragging and tagging their way through the 2008 campaign and unless they can find somebody to put out fires, they are going to be Home to Motown when the playoffs begin. Minor has been impressive out of the Pen but rarely throws more than 1 inning per outing and his absense there tonight is not going to benefit the visitors. Miner has started 17 games over three seasons, going 7-7 with a 5.08 ERA. That is not deserving of an Espy and low and behold, he did not get one last night. He is also not deserving with his work verses Kansas City. Miner is 0-2 with an 8.36 ERA in eight games, two starts, against Kansas City. Both losses came in starts, as he was pounded for 10 runs and 13 hits in 4 2/3 total innings. Did I mention that these Royals can hit? Hochevar is 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA in career two games, one start, against the Tigers. He beat them at home on May 14, allowing four hits in six innings of a 2-0 victory. He is one of those guys who likes the home cooking and Luke has a 4-2 record here at this park this year with very good Innings/Hits ratios and a much better than average ERA of Under 3.5 Runs. He will be throwing at the Worst Hitting Position that Detroit has to offer, batting Under .240 on the road against righthanded pitching. There is no doubt that the Home Team has the better bullpen, there is no doubt that they are more rested, and there is no doubt that they have more guys to go to when needed. KC has beaten the Tigers 6 straight times this year. They have the advantages again tonight as they return home for some of the best BBQ in the World. I think that Smoked Tiger is on the Menu tonight.

Greg Shaker

 

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Maddux Sports
Baseball
#952 - MLB - 3 units on Florida -114
#971 - MLB - 3 units on Detroit +100
#975 - MLB - 3 units on Boston -133