Ben Burns
NFL
FALCONS (+3 or better)
Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Game Time: 12/10/2007 8:30:00 PM Prediction: Atlanta Falcons Reason: I'm taking the points with ATLANTA. I successfully played against the Saints in the Opening Night loss to the Colts, stating that I felt they would be "over-valued" against the spread this season. That has proven to be the case as they've managed to go just 4-8 ATS for the season, including a 1-6 ATS mark in their "dome" games. Most will argue that this is a bigger game for the Saints, as they are still alive for the Wild Card race. However, I expect the Falcons to be AT LEAST as hungry. In fact, this is arguably Atlanta's biggest game on the schedule. They aren't going to the playoffs and the season was a disaster before it even started. This is their chance to play spoiler against a team which hurt them last season and a chance to win one in front of a national audience, showing the world that they aren't as bad as everyone believes them to be. While this is the Falcons' "Superbowl," last week was the "Big Game" for the Saints as they were head to head vs. the Bucs. Despite getting badly outgained (466-266!), the Saints had a chance to win that game but had their hearts broken in the games final seconds. Coach Payton had this to say: "That's a disappointing loss and probably the worst job I've done as head coach since we've been here. Obviously, I regret the play call. It cost us the game." Off that devastating defeat, I don't feel this banged-up unit is in the right state of mind to be laying points on the road. Note that the Saints are a dismal 2-7 ATS since 2005 when coming off a loss vs. a division rival. The Falcons, 5-2-1 ATS their last eight December home games, are expected to go with Redman at quarterback. That should be a positive as he was impressive in relief of Harrington last week, going 16-of-24 for 172 yards and two touchdowns before giving up a late interception. Still, he moved the ball effectively and rallied the team from a 21-3 deficit to make the game competitive. The Falcons got explosive running back Jerious Norwood back last time out and he gained 94 yards on just eight carries. They also got receiver Joe Horn back and you know he'll be wanting to play well vs. his former team. Roddy White, the team's leading receiver, comes off a career game as he caught 10 passes for 146 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons had a 16-14 fourth quarter lead when these teams faced each other at New Orleans two months ago. Reggie Bush, who won't play tonight, eventually scored the winning touchdown for the Saints in that game but the Falcons still managed to cover the spread. Look for the Falcons to avenge that loss tonight, dropping the Saints to 6-14 ATS the last 20 times they were laying points. *Monday Night GOY
NBA
SUNS (-13 or better)
Game: Miami Heat vs. Phoenix Suns Game Time: 12/10/2007 9:05:00 PM Prediction: Phoenix Suns Reason: I'm laying the points with PHOENIX. I feel the situation strongly favors the Suns. Phoenix returns home, having yesterday off, with a bad taste in its mouth off an upset loss at Minnesota on Saturday. The Heat, on the other hand, finally got a win yesterday. However, they're still just 1-5 their last six games and also 1-5 when playing the second of back to back games this season. This isn't your typical back to back situation though. For starters, they're playing the Suns, a team capable of running anyone right out of the building. This is also Miami's fourth game in the past five nights. They don't make teams play five games in five nights or five games in six nights, so four in five is as gruelling as it gets. Additionally, this is Miami's sixth straight Western Conference road game. They got their token win yesterday and now the team is already thinking about getting home. The loss to Minnesota notwithstanding, the Suns are playing really well right now. They also fared very well at this time of year last season. In fact, looking back to December 1st of last season and we find them at 17-3 SU and 13-6-1 ATS in 20 December contests. The Suns have also dominated the Heat on this floor. Looking at the last three meetings here and we find that the Suns have gone 3-0 SU/ATS winning by margins of 15, 18 and most recently 28 points. I'm expecting the Suns to have the fresher legs tonight and for them to record a fourth straight double-digit blowout in this series on this floor. *Annihilator
UNDER Bucks/Kings (195 or better)
Game: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Sacramento Kings Game Time: 12/10/2007 10:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Sacramento and Milwaukee to finish UNDER the total. Off yesterday's overtime loss at Portland, I expect the Bucks to have some trouble scoring tonight. This will be the third time this season that the Bucks have played a road game after having played the previous day. The first two games both stayed below the total by a combined margin of 27 points. Overall, the UNDER is 7-3 the last 10 times that the Bucks played the second of back to back games, including 4-0 when they played on the road in that situation. The Kings saw their most recent game, at Denver, fall comfortably below the number. That game had a total of 214 and finished with 198 combined points. Prior to that, in the Kings most recent home game, they combined with the Clippers for just 184 points. That game also fell below the number which brought the UNDER to 5-2-1 when the Kings have faced a team with a losing record. The Kings will be forced to rely on their defense more than usual here. Already playing without Mike Bibby, they're also now without leading scorer Kevin Martin, who has averaged 24.5 points per game on the season. Looking at the series history and we find that the UNDER is 4-1 the last five times that the Bucks traveled to Sacramento. I'm expecting another low-scoring affair with the final combined score falling beneath the generous number. *Blue Chip
NFL
FALCONS (+3 or better)
Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Game Time: 12/10/2007 8:30:00 PM Prediction: Atlanta Falcons Reason: I'm taking the points with ATLANTA. I successfully played against the Saints in the Opening Night loss to the Colts, stating that I felt they would be "over-valued" against the spread this season. That has proven to be the case as they've managed to go just 4-8 ATS for the season, including a 1-6 ATS mark in their "dome" games. Most will argue that this is a bigger game for the Saints, as they are still alive for the Wild Card race. However, I expect the Falcons to be AT LEAST as hungry. In fact, this is arguably Atlanta's biggest game on the schedule. They aren't going to the playoffs and the season was a disaster before it even started. This is their chance to play spoiler against a team which hurt them last season and a chance to win one in front of a national audience, showing the world that they aren't as bad as everyone believes them to be. While this is the Falcons' "Superbowl," last week was the "Big Game" for the Saints as they were head to head vs. the Bucs. Despite getting badly outgained (466-266!), the Saints had a chance to win that game but had their hearts broken in the games final seconds. Coach Payton had this to say: "That's a disappointing loss and probably the worst job I've done as head coach since we've been here. Obviously, I regret the play call. It cost us the game." Off that devastating defeat, I don't feel this banged-up unit is in the right state of mind to be laying points on the road. Note that the Saints are a dismal 2-7 ATS since 2005 when coming off a loss vs. a division rival. The Falcons, 5-2-1 ATS their last eight December home games, are expected to go with Redman at quarterback. That should be a positive as he was impressive in relief of Harrington last week, going 16-of-24 for 172 yards and two touchdowns before giving up a late interception. Still, he moved the ball effectively and rallied the team from a 21-3 deficit to make the game competitive. The Falcons got explosive running back Jerious Norwood back last time out and he gained 94 yards on just eight carries. They also got receiver Joe Horn back and you know he'll be wanting to play well vs. his former team. Roddy White, the team's leading receiver, comes off a career game as he caught 10 passes for 146 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons had a 16-14 fourth quarter lead when these teams faced each other at New Orleans two months ago. Reggie Bush, who won't play tonight, eventually scored the winning touchdown for the Saints in that game but the Falcons still managed to cover the spread. Look for the Falcons to avenge that loss tonight, dropping the Saints to 6-14 ATS the last 20 times they were laying points. *Monday Night GOY
NBA
SUNS (-13 or better)
Game: Miami Heat vs. Phoenix Suns Game Time: 12/10/2007 9:05:00 PM Prediction: Phoenix Suns Reason: I'm laying the points with PHOENIX. I feel the situation strongly favors the Suns. Phoenix returns home, having yesterday off, with a bad taste in its mouth off an upset loss at Minnesota on Saturday. The Heat, on the other hand, finally got a win yesterday. However, they're still just 1-5 their last six games and also 1-5 when playing the second of back to back games this season. This isn't your typical back to back situation though. For starters, they're playing the Suns, a team capable of running anyone right out of the building. This is also Miami's fourth game in the past five nights. They don't make teams play five games in five nights or five games in six nights, so four in five is as gruelling as it gets. Additionally, this is Miami's sixth straight Western Conference road game. They got their token win yesterday and now the team is already thinking about getting home. The loss to Minnesota notwithstanding, the Suns are playing really well right now. They also fared very well at this time of year last season. In fact, looking back to December 1st of last season and we find them at 17-3 SU and 13-6-1 ATS in 20 December contests. The Suns have also dominated the Heat on this floor. Looking at the last three meetings here and we find that the Suns have gone 3-0 SU/ATS winning by margins of 15, 18 and most recently 28 points. I'm expecting the Suns to have the fresher legs tonight and for them to record a fourth straight double-digit blowout in this series on this floor. *Annihilator
UNDER Bucks/Kings (195 or better)
Game: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Sacramento Kings Game Time: 12/10/2007 10:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Sacramento and Milwaukee to finish UNDER the total. Off yesterday's overtime loss at Portland, I expect the Bucks to have some trouble scoring tonight. This will be the third time this season that the Bucks have played a road game after having played the previous day. The first two games both stayed below the total by a combined margin of 27 points. Overall, the UNDER is 7-3 the last 10 times that the Bucks played the second of back to back games, including 4-0 when they played on the road in that situation. The Kings saw their most recent game, at Denver, fall comfortably below the number. That game had a total of 214 and finished with 198 combined points. Prior to that, in the Kings most recent home game, they combined with the Clippers for just 184 points. That game also fell below the number which brought the UNDER to 5-2-1 when the Kings have faced a team with a losing record. The Kings will be forced to rely on their defense more than usual here. Already playing without Mike Bibby, they're also now without leading scorer Kevin Martin, who has averaged 24.5 points per game on the season. Looking at the series history and we find that the UNDER is 4-1 the last five times that the Bucks traveled to Sacramento. I'm expecting another low-scoring affair with the final combined score falling beneath the generous number. *Blue Chip
