Jeff Benton
Monday's winners ...
10 Dime: FALCONS (plus the points vs. Saints)
5 Dime: MAVERICKS (minus the points vs. Knicks)
Falcons
This is a difficult game to handicap for no other reason than it?s impossible to know just where the players? heads are entering tonight, as this has been an incredibly disappointing season for both squads, for different reasons.
The Falcons came into this season with low expectations after the Michael Vick controversy, not to mention the hiring of a new coach (Bobby Petrino), and they?ve lived down to those expectations with a 3-9 record, including a three-game losing skid coming into this game. On the other hand, the Saints were thought to be Super Bowl contenders following last year?s surprising season, but they?ve been maddeningly inconsistent. New Orleans started out 0-4, then climbed back to .500 with a four-game winning streak and everyone thought the Saints were back. But the team has since gone into the toilet again by losing three of its last four, including last week?s inexcusable 27-23 home loss to Tampa Bay.
So given all that, how did I arrive at the Falcons here? Two main reasons: First, I think New Orleans is a dead team after that loss to the Bucs, a game it had in the bag before a stupid play call by coach Sean Peyton late in the fourth quarter allowed Tampa back into the contest. And even though the Saints are still mathematically alive for a playoff berth, they know that reality is this is a totally lost season. And I have a hard time believing they?re going to rally tonight. Secondly, I think the Falcons, who have been embarrassed twice in nationally televised prime-time games at home ? 31-13 loss to Indy two weeks ago, 31-10 loss to the Giants on Oct. 15 ? don?t want to go down that road again. I believe they will take the field tonight more determined than ever to prove to the nation that they have pride and aren?t a bunch of quitters. Besides, a bunch of guys on this Atlanta roster are playing for jobs for next season.
A couple of other factors that point to the Falcons: QB Chris Redman was terrific in the second half last week against St. Louis, going 16-for-24 for 172 yards with two TDs and one INT. With a full week of practice with the No. 1 offense, I have to believe Redman will be even better tonight against a Saints defense that gives up 250 passing yards per game and got torched by little-known Luke McCown (29-for-37, 313 yds, 2 TDs) last week. Also, a week after the home debacle against the Giants in mid-October, the Falcons played the Saints very tough in New Orleans, losing 22-16 as a nine-point underdog, but actually finishing with a 334-310 edge in total offense, with Joey Harrington and Byron Leftwich combining to go 27 of 41 for 259 yards, two TDs and no INTs.
Lastly, this has been a rivalry dominated by the underdog, which has covered each of the last three meetings and six of the last eight. Throw in the Saints? 4-11 ATS record in their last 15 games and will be without Reggie Bush in this contest, and I?m willing to back Atlanta, which finally has the Vick saga behind it after today?s sentencing.
Please note the rating here, though, fellas ? 10 Dimes mean you DO NOT go blow your entire bankroll on this game!
Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks have lost six of their last 10 games straight-up, they?re just 3-10 against the number in their last 13, including 2-10 ATS as a favorite, and they?ve failed to cash in seven of 10 road games this season. And yet I?m laying big-time points with the Mavs tonight on the road. That should tell you what I think of the New York Knickerbockers.
To say the Knicks are a disgrace is an understatement. I mean, they just lost consecutive games to the crappy 76ers, including Saturday?s 105-77 debacle in Madison Square Garden! Including that contest, the Knicks have lost 13 of their 19 games this season, with the last seven defeats coming by double digits!
Think Dallas doesn?t have this game circled as a chance to get healthy in a hurry? You know they do. You also know that the Mavs realize they have flat-out dominated New York over the last several seasons, going 10-1 in the last 11 meetings, covering the spread in eight of those 11 contests. Their average point total during this run against the Knicks? 108.1 points per game. Granted, Dallas fell well short of that 108-point average in their last visit to the Garden 11 months ago ? but the Mavs still won 92-77, covering as an eight-point favorite.
With Saturday?s ugly loss to Philly, the Knicks are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games in the Garden, where they?re getting booed mercilessly by disgruntled Knicks fans. Well, there will be more booing tonight, because this one?s got blowout written all over it!
