NBA FRI 040309 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[Slicer]

Thought I would start the thread today with Ax presumably recovering from his bday :mj07:

Accuscore 9am:

Bobcats .7 and 179.5
Spurs 1.3 and 199.7
Celtics 9.5 and 182.5
Blazers 7.1 and 189.5
Magic 6.1 and 184.5
Jazz 15.2 and 204
Suns 16.5 and 245.5
Hornets 2.3 and 221.5
Lakers 6.5 and 201.5

 

[BillyBatts]

At quick glance, there are more than a handful of games I really like tonight, could be dangerous. One thing I want to bring up though, is the "Friday Night Lights" Factor. I will be hard pressed to take an under tonight becuase of this. It seems the last month or so, Overs seem to hit more thna unders on Friday, and especially with Home teams that are having subpar seasons, playing against a playoff caliber team. Whereas the crowd is more energized being a weekend and playing a contender.........similar to the Wizz last night although obviously not a Friday Night. So if someone who can run a query could please run this...........Teams below .500, playing at home VS a team above .500, on a Friday Night, let's say the last 4 weeks. Thanks in advance. :toast:

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Tonight is one of my fav situations: teams playing @Nuggets then coming back home on no rest, under is healthy +60% going back as much as 10 years.
This year it's 3-2 (I'm 2-1 as I didn't play under in SAC-WAS & LAC-NJN for obvious reasons), and this game might be one to qualify for a play.
I thought it might be a little different for Jazz, as they too are a high-alt team, but they are 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS and 1-5 o/u in the situation. The only game going over was the one they lost to Cavs.

team=Jazz and po:team=Nuggets and p:site=away and site=home and rest=0 and 20011030<=date


Twolves shouldn't really be a point-producing threat, the only question is how Jazz' D is going to respond.

Jazz off a divisional-away-loss and playing home on no rest: 8-3 SUATS, 3-8 o/u...BUT...their 2 latest (in late 2008) both went over.

Also of intrest, these 2 teams played a game in jan with total of 206 and Jazz as -8 fav failed to cover in a 112-107 win that went over. Boozer didn't play and Jefferson had 25 pts. Foye and Gomes had combined 38 (19 & 19) but they've been much colder vs better Ds lately. Todays total is 4 pts lower

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Teams below .500, playing at home VS a team above .500, on a Friday Night, let's say the last 4 weeks. Thanks in advance.

7-7 last month with 2 OTs, but it's been streaky...first 8 games 6-2 o/u, last 6 games 1-5 o/u

13-11 since feb

 

[BillyBatts]

7-7 last month with 2 OTs, but it's been streaky...first 8 games 6-2 o/u, last 6 games 1-5 o/u

13-11 since feb

Thank you. It seems like alot more. Could you just do ALL Friday night games the last 4 weeks?

 

[axp59]

Thought I would start the thread today with Ax presumably recovering from his bday :mj07:

Accuscore 9am:

Bobcats .7 and 179.5
Spurs 1.3 and 199.7
Celtics 9.5 and 182.5
Blazers 7.1 and 189.5
Magic 6.1 and 184.5
Jazz 15.2 and 204
Suns 16.5 and 245.5
Hornets 2.3 and 221.5
Lakers 6.5 and 201.5

Thanks for doing this Slice. Rough morning. I'm running numbers now.

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Thank you. It seems like alot more. Could you just do ALL Friday night games the last 4 weeks?

sure no prob, and I think I have an idea why you consider over to be strong option:

all friday games since 1st march: 23-18-1 o/u, the last friday over won with 6-3-1

 

[axp59]

At quick glance, there are more than a handful of games I really like tonight, could be dangerous. One thing I want to bring up though, is the "Friday Night Lights" Factor. I will be hard pressed to take an under tonight becuase of this. It seems the last month or so, Overs seem to hit more thna unders on Friday, and especially with Home teams that are having subpar seasons, playing against a playoff caliber team. Whereas the crowd is more energized being a weekend and playing a contender.........similar to the Wizz last night although obviously not a Friday Night. So if someone who can run a query could please run this...........Teams below .500, playing at home VS a team above .500, on a Friday Night, let's say the last 4 weeks. Thanks in advance. :toast:

I'm looking at a decent NOT UNDER PLAY right now.

What's everyone's read on New Orleans at Golden State?

 

[LookKaPyPy]

over or pass

 

[BillyBatts]

LookKappy. Thanks for the info. On the sub 500 home vs above 500 visitor, can you do an ats the last 4 weeks as well? Thanks.

Ax- 217 seems like alot. The highest over total the Hornets have hit all year, was 207 VS the Lakers, but that went into OT. They went over 206 a few nights later VS the Kings though.
Hornets 4-6 O/U on the year at 200+

 

[Ools]

A little help?

A little help?

curious if anything there for this -- but not skilled in running queries yet:

looking at Utah:
good team (+.600 win %), late in season (March/April), 5 straight ATS loses in a row - what do they do next?

other perameters that could be added: laying double digits in 6th game and/or 4th game in 5 nights. Just thinking there has to be something here?

Thanks

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Sorry fellas, I am going away for the weekend, leaving in 20mins...someone else will get those queries.

Think that regardless of totals for year these are "before playoffs" times, lotsa scrubs might get to play more minutes. Look at NO @SAC last time out, don't have the box-score, but it might give away some tendencies.

BOL! :mj06:

 

[axp59]

Cleveland at Orlando

1 vs. 2/3? How does this game go over 188?

 

[axp59]

Sorry fellas, I am going away for the weekend, leaving in 20mins...someone else will get those queries.

Think that regardless of totals for year these are "before playoffs" times, lotsa scrubs might get to play more minutes. Look at NO @SAC last time out, don't have the box-score, but it might give away some tendencies.

BOL! :mj06:

Have a great weekend pal

 

[axp59]

LookKappy. Thanks for the info. On the sub 500 home vs above 500 visitor, can you do an ats the last 4 weeks as well? Thanks.

Ax- 217 seems like alot. The highest over total the Hornets have hit all year, was 207 VS the Lakers, but that went into OT. They went over 206 a few nights later VS the Kings though.
Hornets 4-6 O/U on the year at 200+

Thanks...looks like a pass.

 

[BillyBatts]

Thanks look, enjoy your weekend. :toast:

AX- I was thinking the same thing. 2 things worry me. The OT factor, and the fact that in a game of this importnace, I could see LBJ having a 45+ pt night, or Howard having a monster game as well. Defensive intensity will be high, but sometimes the superstars go "unconciious" on the offensive end.

 

[axp59]

curious if anything there for this -- but not skilled in running queries yet:

looking at Utah:
good team (+.600 win %), late in season (March/April), 5 straight ATS loses in a row - what do they do next?

other perameters that could be added: laying double digits in 6th game and/or 4th game in 5 nights. Just thinking there has to be something here?

Thanks

Ools, I'll try to fill in with the SDQL stuff but I'm getting thrown off with the latter part of the year parameters. I'll keep trying.

 

[axp59]

Bill, Cleveland at Orlando is definitely the biggest game on the card. I can't rely on trending and stats alone for this one. I believe this is one for the situational capper. You're absolutely correct, superstars could go nuts in this one under those bright lights!

 

[Supaman33]

Slice,
How has accuscore been faring this week, if you are still tracking it? Thanks in advance.

 

[BillyBatts]

Ax_ maybe just look for teams losing 5 in a row ats laying dd next game?

Games Im looking at.
Miami+4 and under 183
Spurs +4 and under 200
OKC +5.5
Minny-Utah under 202
Kings+13
GSW+3 possibly POD
Houston +5.5 see above

And every other game as a non over. We're due guys.