NBA FRI 040309 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[axp59]

just noticed this thread a few days ago...i like it...its what this site is all about....everyone puttin their heads togother and sharing info.....and best of all no egos!!

well i been here a long time.....been capping many years im very old school notebooks and pen mainly a [sides only] situation guy but look at all aspects.....dont do totals so i been looking for your help there...sometimes i can post a winner....ill throw a few into the thread and maybe help out some..

anyway...what i see value in tonite is....
these 4....

char

san antone.

atl.....plus pts and moneyline

hou...plus and moneyline

gluck guys burgh..

Thank you and welcome. I'm also liking the two I've highlighted. BOL

 

[barts185]

I know you guys are working on some other queries, but if you could do one more I'd appreciate it. Sub .500 teams at home vs above .500 teams on Friday night, the last 4 weeks. Thanks. Will help me hopefully on the GSW and Hornets game.

I think this does it, but have to admit that I'm not positive

tA(W)<=0.500 and oA(W)>=0.500 and date>=20090307 and day=Friday and site=home

If that's correct, then

SU: 4-8 (-1.0)
ATS: 5-7-0 (2.7) avg line: 3.7
O/U: 5-7-0 (-0.6) avg total: 203.5


I accidentally ran one that looks okay.

Above .600 teams playing sub .500 teams on a Friday the last 4 weeks

tA(W)>=0.600 and oA(W)<=0.500 and date>=20090307 and day=Friday and site=home

SU: 8-0 (14.0)
ATS: 5-2-1 (2.3) avg line: -11.7
O/U: 6-1-1 (5.1) avg total: 195.4

away teams have done better than break-even, but not as well.
tA(W)>=0.600 and oA(W)<=0.500 and date>=20090307 and day=Friday and site=away
SU: 6-2 (2.8)
ATS: 5-3-0 (-2.4) avg line: -5.2
O/U: 3-5-0 (3.0) avg total: 202.0

 

[Ools]

Actually, it seems that teams that are at .600 or higher don't lose 5 against the spread and then are 10 digiit favorites often.


tA(W)>=0.600 and p:ats margin<0 and pp:ats margin<0 and ppp:ats margin<0 and pppp:ats margin<0 and ppppp:ats margin<0 and line>=10

and I just realized that the line part should be <=-10 for favorites

tA(W)>=0.600 and p:ats margin<0 and pp:ats margin<0 and ppp:ats margin<0 and pppp:ats margin<0 and ppppp:ats margin<0 and line<=-10

It still only has 28 occurences in the database

SU: 27-1 (13.3)
ATS: 12-16-0 (0.8) avg line: -12.5
O/U: 15-13-0 (-1.1) avg total: 197.1


has done worse this year than on average
SU: 4-0 (13.8)
ATS: 1-3-0 (1.2) avg line: -12.5
O/U: 1-3-0 (-8.8) avg total: 209.0

let's say we ignore the large point spread and substitute 4th game in 5 days with the rest of the scenario- can you query that type of thing?

 

[Slicer]

Some situations for tonight for discussion:

Mavericks- They suck on the road yet against Memphis they do pretty well 9-2 ATS (1 of those losses coming this year in their last matchup)

Out of their last 10 games only 2 have eclipsed the number set tonight (196), those games occured 02/08 and 01/05.

Dallas has motivation to win tonight to stay the hell out of the Lakers 1st round sights. They have lost all 3 games to the Lakers this year by 7 points each. While Denver currently occupies the #2 slot, Dallas has lost 3 games to Denver by 2,2,3 points so it's obvious they would rather see Denver. Of course Denver has SA nipping at their heels and Dallas has fared better against them at least winning 1 of 3 this season.

The line of 5.5 is a .5 shorter than the last meeting in Memphis. I'm thinking Dallas and Under here in this spot.

SA/Pacers Under 200

SA/Pacers played to a 180 earlier this year with a line set of 208.5.

Looking at the trends don't be fooled by matchup history, while the series is 11-2 Over L13, most of those matchups occured where lines were in the 170's back in 2005/06, 180's in 2007 and mid 190's in 2008. More recent trends>

SA are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.
Under is 8-2 in SA last 10 vs. NBA Central.
SA are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

Indiana: Under is 11-1 in IND last 12 home games.
IND are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Fri. games.
Under is 8-2 in IND last 10 overall.

As mentioned SA has motivation to secure their standing as division leaders, with Houston @ LAL tonight they can go up at least 1.5 on Houston and with NO ailing and on the end of their west coast swing against up tempo GS which might be an upset tonight they can keep clear of NO by 2.5 if they can win and NO should lose. I can see them locking down the defense tonight.

Indiana against elite level teams at home over their past 10 games (I.e Dallas, Miami and Port) scored respectively 85,92,90. The books lowering the total by 8.5 pts off their original game and knowing the publics penchant for betting Indy overs appears to be a semi trap in my eyes.

Still looking over other matchups.

 

[40seven]

:topic:
Just got done going through last night's thread.
You guys really gave me some love yesterday and that means a lot to me...THANK YOU.

On that note...whoever took the Under (of course) covered the number by 20. Go cash your ticket.

another side note...MLB...I settled with my locals yesterday and wired some $$$ to my offshore accts. Locals are not an option for me for MLB. For those just starting out in MLB this year, I strongly suggest using books with reduced juice. It's a LONG season and remember to pace yourself. I'm personally going to run my Dogs, Unders in spots and Streak systems. I know we've got a few seasoned MLB cappers in here. Maybe we can help out some of the newer guys get started.

Sweet

 

[axp59]

I LOVE the under here.

Dallas at Memphis 196

looking to lock this. Opposing views?

 

[BillyBatts]

I think this does it, but have to admit that I'm not positive

tA(W)<=0.500 and oA(W)>=0.500 and date>=20090307 and day=Friday and site=home

If that's correct, then

SU: 4-8 (-1.0)
ATS: 5-7-0 (2.7) avg line: 3.7
O/U: 5-7-0 (-0.6) avg total: 203.5


I accidentally ran one that looks okay.

Above .600 teams playing sub .500 teams on a Friday the last 4 weeks

tA(W)>=0.600 and oA(W)<=0.500 and date>=20090307 and day=Friday and site=home

SU: 8-0 (14.0)
ATS: 5-2-1 (2.3) avg line: -11.7
O/U: 6-1-1 (5.1) avg total: 195.4

away teams have done better than break-even, but not as well.
tA(W)>=0.600 and oA(W)<=0.500 and date>=20090307 and day=Friday and site=away
SU: 6-2 (2.8)
ATS: 5-3-0 (-2.4) avg line: -5.2
O/U: 3-5-0 (3.0) avg total: 202.0

Thanks for the info. Is this number with the better team at home or on the road??

 

[barts185]

let's say we ignore the large point spread and substitute 4th game in 5 days with the rest of the scenario- can you query that type of thing?

Yes, but I want to be clear that this is specifically for the traditional definition of 4 in 5 - played yesterday, played 3 days ago and played 4 days ago.

I also want to make sure you understand that I've been using this for about 1 week now, so I think what I'm doing is correct, but wouldn't be willing to bet everything on it.

tA(W)>=0.600 and p:ats margin<0 and pp:ats margin<0 and ppp:ats margin<0 and pppp:ats margin<0 and ppppp:ats margin<0 and p:rest=0 and pp:rest=1 and ppp:rest=0

SU: 4-1 (2.6)
ATS: 1-4-0 (-4.2) avg line: -6.8
O/U: 1-4-0 (-8.6) avg total: 194.8


Lastly, I want to make sure that you realize that you are now talking about something that has happened less than once a year.

 

[barts185]

Thanks for the info. Is this number with the better team at home or on the road??

at home

If the better team is on the road, it's the other part that I listed.

 

[BillyBatts]

at home

If the better team is on the road, it's the other part that I listed.

Thank you. This stat would support one game tonight, The Utah-Minny game. Can we see if Utahs defense takes a plunge on no rest or 4 games/5 nights or whatever scenario??? :toast:

 

[Mindframe913]

im locking in that dallas under too...96 % on the over......

AX why don't you use a local during MLB?

 

[BillyBatts]

Something I read in Badlands thread that was really interesting.

CLEVELAND/ORLANDO OVER 187

i think there is some value in this line, the last 4 meetings have gone under and oddsmakers have been forced to drop the total each game, all of the last 6 meetings though have finished with 187+.. granted 2 of em were right at 187. orlando 97 cleveland 95

 

[axp59]

im locking in that dallas under too...96 % on the over......

AX why don't you use a local during MLB?

They tend not to have the ML value I'm looking for. Some of mine don't even have ML numbers and try to get me to play the run lines.

 

[Ools]

Yes, but I want to be clear that this is specifically for the traditional definition of 4 in 5 - played yesterday, played 3 days ago and played 4 days ago.

I also want to make sure you understand that I've been using this for about 1 week now, so I think what I'm doing is correct, but wouldn't be willing to bet everything on it.

tA(W)>=0.600 and p:ats margin<0 and pp:ats margin<0 and ppp:ats margin<0 and pppp:ats margin<0 and ppppp:ats margin<0 and p:rest=0 and pp:rest=1 and ppp:rest=0

SU: 4-1 (2.6)
ATS: 1-4-0 (-4.2) avg line: -6.8
O/U: 1-4-0 (-8.6) avg total: 194.8


Lastly, I want to make sure that you realize that you are now talking about something that has happened less than once a year.

Interesting -- always looking for reasons to grab points -- so I'll look further at Minn here -- a few recent trends that I like:
Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.
Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Timberwolves are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Timberwolves are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater.
Timberwolves are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Do we have a live dog here?? Any other opinions?

 

[fatdan215]

BOL AX on your plays

 

[axp59]

im locking in that dallas under too...96 % on the over......

Line moving up...I'm going to wait this out and hit the under at peak value.

 

[Ools]

forgot this one:

Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater.

 

[axp59]

BOL AX on your plays

Thanks Bro. BOL to you pal

 

[axp59]

Do we have a live dog here?? Any other opinions?

I just don't like the fact that UTAH is at home on a Friday night where they'd like to maybe show up for their fans.

 

[Ools]

I just don't like the fact that UTAH is at home on a Friday night where they'd like to maybe show up for their fans.

line just jumped a point too - 13.5 now.

Here is your support, not just home games though:
Jazz are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Friday games.

i locked 1/2 units on Minn and under Dal for now -- i don't think the 13.5 will stay that high