NBA FRI 040309 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[BillyBatts]

Oools, thanks for the info, Twolves do look tempting. A few things keeping me from pulling the trigger.

"Playing the line"----- everyone knows Utah sucks on back to back and with lack of rest, but the number is this high???

Utah is DESPERATE for a "W", trying to stay in playoff position. Twolves are looking forward to the lottery, and with each Loss, thier chances of moving up gets better.
I could see the Twolves really rolling over, especially with that crowd frantic. If Utah jumps out early, I could see a really ugly 25-30 point win.

Now, is the line set that high, becuase Vegas knows that, or did they set it that high knowing most of the money is gonna come in on the "Desperate" Jazz needing to win, and setting a number too high that really isnt attainable.??

 

[Mindframe913]

Line moving up...I'm going to wait this out and hit the under at peak value.

Def feel you.

 

[granpa]

Interesting -- always looking for reasons to grab points -- so I'll look further at Minn here -- a few recent trends that I like:
Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.
Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Timberwolves are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Timberwolves are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater.
Timberwolves are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Do we have a live dog here?? Any other opinions?

Jazz have had 2 sets of 4 games in 5 nights this season, losing the 5th game straight up - @ Wash on 11/12 & @ Pho on 12/6.

 

[Ools]

intersting trends for the under in Utah/minn:

Under is 9-1 in Jazz last 10 home games.
Under is 8-1 in Jazz last 9 games as a home favorite.
Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 Friday games.
Under is 5-0 in Timberwolves last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Under is 7-1 in Timberwolves last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
Under is 4-1 in Timberwolves last 5 Friday games
Under is 13-4 in Timberwolves last 17 games as an underdog.

Ax - what # did you cap this at - 202.5 now?

 

[Mindframe913]

Something I read in Badlands thread that was really interesting.

CLEVELAND/ORLANDO OVER 187

i think there is some value in this line, the last 4 meetings have gone under and oddsmakers have been forced to drop the total each game, all of the last 6 meetings though have finished with 187+.. granted 2 of em were right at 187. orlando 97 cleveland 95

I woke up thinking over in this game for some reason too,.

 

[Ools]

Oools, thanks for the info, Twolves do look tempting. A few things keeping me from pulling the trigger.

"Playing the line"----- everyone knows Utah sucks on back to back and with lack of rest, but the number is this high???

Utah is DESPERATE for a "W", trying to stay in playoff position. Twolves are looking forward to the lottery, and with each Loss, thier chances of moving up gets better.
I could see the Twolves really rolling over, especially with that crowd frantic. If Utah jumps out early, I could see a really ugly 25-30 point win.

Now, is the line set that high, becuase Vegas knows that, or did they set it that high knowing most of the money is gonna come in on the "Desperate" Jazz needing to win, and setting a number too high that really isnt attainable.??

Looking at the schedule -- Ut plays Sunday at New Orleans (only 1 game behind in W column), then at Dal, then at San Antonio. If there is ever a case to find some extra minutes of rest (4 games in 5 days) and/or to look by a team --- this is looking like it could be tonight

 

[Griffin8s]

I woke up thinking over in this game for some reason too,.

Friday night King James and Superman fighting it out in the East you have to think Over in this game. It's going to be a show. Only problem is Cavs on a B2B but not much effort was put into that Wash game last night so maybe don't count it a B2B. Also, Cavs are going to want to come back big from that embrassment! I feel ESPN getting the highlight film ready already today for this one. Get the :0corn out!

 

[axp59]

intersting trends for the under in Utah/minn:

Under is 9-1 in Jazz last 10 home games.
Under is 8-1 in Jazz last 9 games as a home favorite.
Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 Friday games.
Under is 5-0 in Timberwolves last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Under is 7-1 in Timberwolves last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
Under is 4-1 in Timberwolves last 5 Friday games
Under is 13-4 in Timberwolves last 17 games as an underdog.

Ax - what # did you cap this at - 202.5 now?

Got this capped at 205 but I also saw these trends so it's a signal for me to pass on the total here.

 

[Ools]

The fact that Minn starting line up the other day includes Kevin Ollie and Rodney Carney...plus Foye listed as doubtful does get me a little nervous:look:

 

[axp59]

The fact that Minn starting line up the other day includes Kevin Ollie and Rodney Carney...plus Foye listed as doubtful does get me a little nervous:look:

It's like shopping for milk, bread or meat at the grocery store. The date is nearing expiration...do you take the chance? I'll pass. :142smilie

 

[VegasAce21]

ax whats up bro?! still shakin off last nights Jack effect?...likin the MempU play....btw, shit, did i miss something? which ticket went U by 20 pts???

 

[granpa]

I woke up thinking over in this game for some reason too,.

Checked Cavs games following a loss this season. Have won every game following a SU loss except 1 by an average of 17 pts while scoring an ave of 104 pts.

 

[BillyBatts]

ax whats up bro?! still shakin off last nights Jack effect?...likin the MempU play....btw, shit, did i miss something? which ticket went U by 20 pts???

You didn't hear?? They found out the Philly under last night was fixed!!! I hope you didn't throw your ticket away. All bets were refunded. Where have you been?!?!?!?

 

[VegasAce21]

ummmm, ok

 

[barts185]

Thank you. This stat would support one game tonight, The Utah-Minny game. Can we see if Utahs defense takes a plunge on no rest or 4 games/5 nights or whatever scenario??? :toast:

not sure how to run the "or whatever" scenario

This season, Utah games on no rest
team=Jazz and rest=0 and season=2008
SU: 3-15 (-7.5)
ATS: 5-13-0 (-4.9) avg line: 2.6
O/U: 11-7-0 (5.3) avg total: 203.3
Jazz 100.6
Opponent 108.1

when they are home
SU: 0-2 (-10.5)
ATS: 0-2-0 (-16.8) avg line: -6.2
O/U: 0-2-0 (-16.5) avg total: 204.0
Jazz 88.5
Opponent 99.0

Jazz have only played 4 in 5 twice this season and both were pretty early.
at home vs. PHO on 11/17 UTA 109 PHO 97
at MIN on 12/09 UTA 99 MIN 96


And I'm out for most of the rest of the day.

Good Luck,
Bart

 

[axp59]

ax whats up bro?! still shakin off last nights Jack effect?...likin the MempU play....btw, shit, did i miss something? which ticket went U by 20 pts???

man, JD, love it and hate it.

the ticket you missed was on my age bro. the line was 64. :mj07:

watch the DAL/MEM line closely. I think there's value here.

BOL

 

[BillyBatts]

Sorry Bart. I didn't have the Jazz's schedule pulled up. Didn't know whether it was 4 games in 5 days, or 5 games in 7 days, I didn't know the exact scenario. That the "whatever". The lack of rest and the amount of recent games. Thanks.

 

[Mindframe913]

Checked Cavs games following a loss this season. Have won every game following a SU loss except 1 by an average of 17 pts while scoring an ave of 104 pts.

Van Gundy been preaching defense and how to be a good playoff team they need to play great d blah blah blah...we all know its gonna be celtics cavs in the east coast finals so shhhhhhhh. lol...

But even last night with that low scoring game in washington they still some how managed to push it over. I think i turned it on with like 9 mins in the third and cavs still had 50 something pts. I bet under backers felt fucked after that one.


Im passing on this game , unless I end up taking cleveland SU and with the pts. which i might.

 

[JBrilman]

I'm looking at a decent NOT UNDER PLAY right now.

What's everyone's read on New Orleans at Golden State?

OVER!!!!!!!!:00hour :00hour :00hour

 

[axp59]

OVER!!!!!!!!:00hour :00hour :00hour

Man, weird but I'm feeling it too.