NBA FRI 040309 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)
- Thread starter Slicer
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- Mar 22, 2009
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OKC Vs Blazers
OKC Vs Blazers
OKC Vs Blazers
When the Thunder have beaten good teams (and it's happened a handful of times) it's usually been because they've rebounded decently and the other team forgot to play defense, letting them run away with the score. Or the other team has been San Antonio, whichever.
Absent either of those two things happening, this should be a win for Portland.
Keys to the Game
1. Interior dominance would be one way to safely put this game away. They're not going to intimidate you in the middle. Aldridge, Oden, even some drivers should be able to have a field day. The big guys might be able to bully people around for rebounds as well. If you take away Oklahoma City's rebounding ability you've probably won the game.
2. This Durant dude is good, but young. Go ahead and run a lot of different players and looks at him. Front him, then double-him, then push him around. Throw Batum on him, Outlaw, maybe LaMarcus. Don't let him get settled. Make him score uncomfortably. He'll get his points but if he's having to work and use clock to do so it's unlikely anyone else will ride to the rescue with enough punch to push the team over the top.
3. Test their commitment to get back on defense just like you tested Utah.
4. Remember that outside of Durant and Green, this team doesn't really like to shoot threes. You can watch the inside a little closer. Deny the drive first and worry about the bomb later, after they've proven they can hit.
5. This is another game where non-stop bench scoring would overwhelm the opponent beyond their capacity to compensate.
Final Thoughts
This is an important game for Portland. It's a division game. It also begins a road trip where two losses are likely. It would be a huge mistake for the Blazers to concentrate on Houston and San Antonio and take OKC and Memphis lightly. 1-3 would be quite the schedule dampener with only 7 games remaining total. Just come out and take care of business. It doesn't have to be pretty
OKC Vs Blazers
OKC Vs Blazers
When the Thunder have beaten good teams (and it's happened a handful of times) it's usually been because they've rebounded decently and the other team forgot to play defense, letting them run away with the score. Or the other team has been San Antonio, whichever.
Absent either of those two things happening, this should be a win for Portland.
Keys to the Game
1. Interior dominance would be one way to safely put this game away. They're not going to intimidate you in the middle. Aldridge, Oden, even some drivers should be able to have a field day. The big guys might be able to bully people around for rebounds as well. If you take away Oklahoma City's rebounding ability you've probably won the game.
2. This Durant dude is good, but young. Go ahead and run a lot of different players and looks at him. Front him, then double-him, then push him around. Throw Batum on him, Outlaw, maybe LaMarcus. Don't let him get settled. Make him score uncomfortably. He'll get his points but if he's having to work and use clock to do so it's unlikely anyone else will ride to the rescue with enough punch to push the team over the top.
3. Test their commitment to get back on defense just like you tested Utah.
4. Remember that outside of Durant and Green, this team doesn't really like to shoot threes. You can watch the inside a little closer. Deny the drive first and worry about the bomb later, after they've proven they can hit.
5. This is another game where non-stop bench scoring would overwhelm the opponent beyond their capacity to compensate.
Final Thoughts
This is an important game for Portland. It's a division game. It also begins a road trip where two losses are likely. It would be a huge mistake for the Blazers to concentrate on Houston and San Antonio and take OKC and Memphis lightly. 1-3 would be quite the schedule dampener with only 7 games remaining total. Just come out and take care of business. It doesn't have to be pretty
Orlando is a great home team and will be ready to play. Cleaveland has struggled a little on offense lately and I see Orlando winning this and covering.
Has anyone seen the battle between BBookie and Wussieman accross the street?
Wussieman is all over ORL -3 and PHO over tonight!
- Mar 21, 2009
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I dunno NEW O held them to 89 points last time. Granted it was in NEW O but now with jackson out..... and no one controls the tempo better than Chris Paul. And isn't GSW due for an under?
61 % O
39 % U
Thats a tuff call for me.
61 % O
39 % U
Thats a tuff call for me.
- Mar 21, 2009
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What's the feeling in Boston tonight there Ax? Hometown C's put a little payback to the Cats for talking trash, now facing ATL w/o KG and -6? Orl/Cavs duking it out tonight, does Boston play hard to keep looking for #2 seed?
I'm passing too MF. It was just a feeling I had and can't go with it. JBrill, you locked on this?
- Mar 22, 2009
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The Trail Blazers embark on their final extended road trip of the season beginning Friday at Oklahoma City.
The Thunder got Portland's attention with a 96-85 win at San Antonio on Tuesday night. Then, the Thunder embarrassed the Blazers 102-93 in their previous visit to Oklahoma City on Feb. 6.
"They jumped on us early, and we never were able to come back," Portland's Brandon Roy said. "It will be a challenge for us to try to bring it early against them. It's a big game for us. We're looking forward to playing them."
I think Blazers are ready for this game.
The Thunder got Portland's attention with a 96-85 win at San Antonio on Tuesday night. Then, the Thunder embarrassed the Blazers 102-93 in their previous visit to Oklahoma City on Feb. 6.
"They jumped on us early, and we never were able to come back," Portland's Brandon Roy said. "It will be a challenge for us to try to bring it early against them. It's a big game for us. We're looking forward to playing them."
I think Blazers are ready for this game.
I can tell you the mood in Boston right now is crappy. I have a few friends at the TD and it's just a crappy mood because of all the rain. I didn't get a chance to talk to anyone about how practice went in Waltham or even if they had one yesterday.
numbers...C's haven't allowed more than 94 at home on a FRI this season. Hawks are 5-9 when not scoring more than 94. A tough call for me to make but I'm laying the 4.5 chalk for my homer play. Word is that Doc has again changed the schemes since KG is out and TA is being worked back into the offense. I'm sure the game down in FL has to be on their minds and can't easily discount that.
- Mar 18, 2009
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hello
hello
hey ax happy belated b day , this place is great. 84 degrees not a cloud in site .played a couple games yesterday u 76ers game ,76ers is one of those teams that just have my # ,played u 208 utah game what a joke 86 free throws in a regulation game. we all know what that was about . anyway just wanted to say high . will prob put a small play on my cubbies tonight in the new yankee stadium . hitting the casino tonight .good luck to all
hello
hey ax happy belated b day , this place is great. 84 degrees not a cloud in site .played a couple games yesterday u 76ers game ,76ers is one of those teams that just have my # ,played u 208 utah game what a joke 86 free throws in a regulation game. we all know what that was about . anyway just wanted to say high . will prob put a small play on my cubbies tonight in the new yankee stadium . hitting the casino tonight .good luck to all
- Mar 22, 2009
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San Antonio @ Indiana
San Antonio @ Indiana
San Antonio @ Indiana
Breakdown
Point Guard - The Pacers interior defense should be very susceptible to Tony's drives to the hoop. On the other hand, Jack is the kind of physical point guard that can give Tony problems.
Off Guard - Manu may start Manuing the way Manu can get his Manu on.
Center - If this was playoff Tim, he'd abuse the rookie and the thin front line of the Paces fro 28 and 18.
Power Forward - Murphy ($10.1M) is like a better version of Bonner($2.99). He's not 3.33 times better, but he's better.
Small Forward - Granger is having a very, very good year offensively. And those kinds of guys are having good games against Finley.
Bench - Who is spurs bench? Gooden, Mason, Ime, The JV? Hmmmm. Probably still better tha TJ Ford, Rasho, and Josh McRoberts.
Coach - I think this has been known.
Intangibles - The Pacers have a very solid record at home this season and have beaten a lot of good teams already.
Winner - I think we are 50/50 at best. I think this one slips away from spurs.
Keys To The Game
Containing Granger - Wings are really hurting spurs. I don't see how this will be different. Manu, FinDog, and Mason can hang with him. Ime might be able to.
8 To Go - With 8 games to go, spurs need to start playing with playoff intensity. I haven't seen it yet. Very little, if any, desperation actually.
San Antonio @ Indiana
San Antonio @ Indiana
Breakdown
Point Guard - The Pacers interior defense should be very susceptible to Tony's drives to the hoop. On the other hand, Jack is the kind of physical point guard that can give Tony problems.
Off Guard - Manu may start Manuing the way Manu can get his Manu on.
Center - If this was playoff Tim, he'd abuse the rookie and the thin front line of the Paces fro 28 and 18.
Power Forward - Murphy ($10.1M) is like a better version of Bonner($2.99). He's not 3.33 times better, but he's better.
Small Forward - Granger is having a very, very good year offensively. And those kinds of guys are having good games against Finley.
Bench - Who is spurs bench? Gooden, Mason, Ime, The JV? Hmmmm. Probably still better tha TJ Ford, Rasho, and Josh McRoberts.
Coach - I think this has been known.
Intangibles - The Pacers have a very solid record at home this season and have beaten a lot of good teams already.
Winner - I think we are 50/50 at best. I think this one slips away from spurs.
Keys To The Game
Containing Granger - Wings are really hurting spurs. I don't see how this will be different. Manu, FinDog, and Mason can hang with him. Ime might be able to.
8 To Go - With 8 games to go, spurs need to start playing with playoff intensity. I haven't seen it yet. Very little, if any, desperation actually.
Thanks Cub. Stay safe in Mexico brother, that drug war is making a mess of things for sure.
Yes NO is a defensive team this year but the last 2 games against faster paced teams have yielding overs and with depleted line up its hard to play defense every possession. If Sac put up 221 than I think Warriors put up 230 especially if West ankle is still banged up he cant play D and will still put up his 20-25 if not 30 against the Warriors.
- Mar 22, 2009
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I agree. This might be my POD. Been doing well on sides lately, totals..not so much.
Totals :bigun:
:topic:
Anyone see the crazy shit going on in Binghampton, NY??
- Mar 18, 2009
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Pacers = live underdog from this vantage point; nothing to play for (i.e. loose) - more athletic than the aging Spurs; San Antonio heading into the playoffs w/ a whimper, not a bang - does not bode well for their chances (have been exposed by Lakers, Thunder, Rockets, etc.).
There is NOTHING that will remedy the glaring fact that this team is growing old and that their (super)star 3 cannot rely on the unproven quality of their younger personnel.
Indianapolis has been a graveyard for some of the league's better teams this season: Lakers, Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, Miami. One ought not to be surprised if San Antonio gets added as another scalp.