NBA FRI 040309 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[Mindframe913]

Def playing Pacers and Pacers under 200. GL all.

 

[Slicer]

Ax dont forget to check last night's thread we had some fun at your expense LOL :mj07:

 

[Slicer]

Slice,
How has accuscore been faring this week, if you are still tracking it? Thanks in advance.

It has sucked wind on ATS Sides, going a dismal 3-18 L3 days. Totals however have been pushing 50% L3 days and over 55% L 7 days.

Yesterday it went 1-2 on totals, previous day was like 3-5-1 and before that were like 7-2 or something along those lines.

Because of the non-importance games etc and garbage times, it trends to be more accurate in playoff type games where teams have something to play for. I think this is the case on ATS Sides as well due to blowouts etc which I doubt we'll see much of in the playoffs so I expect an increase in hit percentage once playoffs start.

As I've stated I don't use this solely as my capping style just as a precursor to "highlight" matchups and spot trends/variances.

Often I go against the system in ATS or on Overs, however Unders are still profitable by the system solely.

 

[kellyindallas]

Thanks look, enjoy your weekend. :toast:

AX- I was thinking the same thing. 2 things worry me. The OT factor, and the fact that in a game of this importnace, I could see LBJ having a 45+ pt night, or Howard having a monster game as well. Defensive intensity will be high, but sometimes the superstars go "unconciious" on the offensive end.

What is unconciious?

Unconscious?

 

[axp59]

Ax_ maybe just look for teams losing 5 in a row ats laying dd next game?

Neutral...

p:ats margin<0 and pp:ats margin<0 and ppp:ats margin<0 and pppp:ats margin<0 and ppppp:ats margin<0 and line>=10

 

[axp59]

Ax dont forget to check last night's thread we had some fun at your expense LOL :mj07:

Oh crap...I haven't gotten around to that yet...:scared

 

[BillyBatts]

What is unconciious?

Unconscious?

Are you serious? Yes I hit the "i" key twice on accident. Thank you spelling police. Are you more worried about winning money or Spell check?:mj11:

 

[barts185]

Regarding the CLE game, them losing outright really screwed up several things I was looking at for today, one of which was the under in the CLE/ORL game.

when CLE plays a team whom they beat the last meeting (so the team they are playing wants revenge)

team=Cavaliers and season=2008 and P:season=season and P:W

O/U: 13-23-2 (-5.6) avg total: 194.3

but now add that they lost their last game (add and p:L)
O/U: 2-2-0 (0.2) avg total: 194.8


Cleveland after any loss this season
team=Cavaliers and p:L and season=2008
O/U: 6-7-0 (-0.8) avg total: 190.7


Orlando when wanting revenge

team=Magic and season=2008 and P:season=season and P:L
O/U: 5-5-0 (-2.1) avg total: 197.1

since the all-star break
O/U: 2-4-0 (-7.9) avg total: 199.9

 

[BIGWave]

It has sucked wind on ATS Sides, going a dismal 3-18 L3 days. Totals however have been pushing 50% L3 days and over 55% L 7 days.

WOW!!!!!! :scared
Great fade material accuscore has become.

 

[barts185]

Ools, I'll try to fill in with the SDQL stuff but I'm getting thrown off with the latter part of the year parameters. I'll keep trying.

I think you would have to do it season by season

if you have the rest (I don't or would just give the whole line), add

and season=2008 and date>20090331
and season=2007 and date>20080331
and season=2006 and date>20070331

if you don't want playoff games included remember to include and playoffs=0

 

[BillyBatts]

I know you guys are working on some other queries, but if you could do one more I'd appreciate it. Sub .500 teams at home vs above .500 teams on Friday night, the last 4 weeks. Thanks. Will help me hopefully on the GSW and Hornets game.

 

[axp59]

Many Thanks

Many Thanks

:topic:
Just got done going through last night's thread.
You guys really gave me some love yesterday and that means a lot to me...THANK YOU.

On that note...whoever took the Under (of course) covered the number by 20. Go cash your ticket.

another side note...MLB...I settled with my locals yesterday and wired some $$$ to my offshore accts. Locals are not an option for me for MLB. For those just starting out in MLB this year, I strongly suggest using books with reduced juice. It's a LONG season and remember to pace yourself. I'm personally going to run my Dogs, Unders in spots and Streak systems. I know we've got a few seasoned MLB cappers in here. Maybe we can help out some of the newer guys get started.

 

[Slicer]

WOW!!!!!! :scared
Great fade material accuscore has become.

This is why I break them down into variance ranges to spot trends etc. There are certain ones that have been holding quite well.

When the system selects a favorite of 4.0 or better it is 1-7 ATS.

When the system selects a dog of 4.0 or better it is 7-1 ATS

And yes those above are completely different games.

Favorites of 1.0 or less are 13-19-1
Dogs of 2.1-2.9 are 15-22-1

The past 3 weeks I started tracking the Top Fav, Top Dog, Top Over and Top Under as selected by the system each day.

Top Fav is 10-10
Top Dog is 7-13
Top Over is 11-6
Top Under is 8-12

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

just noticed this thread a few days ago...i like it...its what this site is all about....everyone puttin their heads togother and sharing info.....and best of all no egos!!

well i been here a long time.....been capping many years im very old school notebooks and pen mainly a [sides only] situation guy but look at all aspects.....dont do totals so i been looking for your help there...sometimes i can post a winner....ill throw a few into the thread and maybe help out some..

anyway...what i see value in tonite is....
these 4....

char

san antone.

atl.....plus pts and moneyline

hou...plus and moneyline

gluck guys burgh..

 

[barts185]

Actually, it seems that teams that are at .600 or higher don't lose 5 against the spread and then are 10 digiit favorites often.


tA(W)>=0.600 and p:ats margin<0 and pp:ats margin<0 and ppp:ats margin<0 and pppp:ats margin<0 and ppppp:ats margin<0 and line>=10

and I just realized that the line part should be <=-10 for favorites

tA(W)>=0.600 and p:ats margin<0 and pp:ats margin<0 and ppp:ats margin<0 and pppp:ats margin<0 and ppppp:ats margin<0 and line<=-10

It still only has 28 occurences in the database

SU: 27-1 (13.3)
ATS: 12-16-0 (0.8) avg line: -12.5
O/U: 15-13-0 (-1.1) avg total: 197.1


has done worse this year than on average
SU: 4-0 (13.8)
ATS: 1-3-0 (1.2) avg line: -12.5
O/U: 1-3-0 (-8.8) avg total: 209.0

 

[axp59]

I think you would have to do it season by season

if you have the rest (I don't or would just give the whole line), add

and season=2008 and date>20090331
and season=2007 and date>20080331
and season=2006 and date>20070331

if you don't want playoff games included remember to include and playoffs=0

deleted...wrong querry

 

[axp59]

Actually, it seems that teams that are at .600 or higher don't lose 5 against the spread and then are 10 digiit favorites often.


tA(W)>=0.600 and p:ats margin<0 and pp:ats margin<0 and ppp:ats margin<0 and pppp:ats margin<0 and ppppp:ats margin<0 and line>=10

and I just realized that the line part should be <=-10 for favorites

tA(W)>=0.600 and p:ats margin<0 and pp:ats margin<0 and ppp:ats margin<0 and pppp:ats margin<0 and ppppp:ats margin<0 and line<=-10

It still only has 28 occurences in the database

SU: 27-1 (13.3)
ATS: 12-16-0 (0.8) avg line: -12.5
O/U: 15-13-0 (-1.1) avg total: 197.1


has done worse this year than on average
SU: 4-0 (13.8)
ATS: 1-3-0 (1.2) avg line: -12.5
O/U: 1-3-0 (-8.8) avg total: 209.0

my bad with the line parameter...good catch..thanks

 

[Ools]

Actually, it seems that teams that are at .600 or higher don't lose 5 against the spread and then are 10 digiit favorites often.


tA(W)>=0.600 and p:ats margin<0 and pp:ats margin<0 and ppp:ats margin<0 and pppp:ats margin<0 and ppppp:ats margin<0 and line>=10

and I just realized that the line part should be <=-10 for favorites

tA(W)>=0.600 and p:ats margin<0 and pp:ats margin<0 and ppp:ats margin<0 and pppp:ats margin<0 and ppppp:ats margin<0 and line<=-10

It still only has 28 occurences in the database

SU: 27-1 (13.3)
ATS: 12-16-0 (0.8) avg line: -12.5
O/U: 15-13-0 (-1.1) avg total: 197.1


has done worse this year than on average
SU: 4-0 (13.8)
ATS: 1-3-0 (1.2) avg line: -12.5
O/U: 1-3-0 (-8.8) avg total: 209.0

thanks, no real favorable trend unless you want to ML Utah -- but I can't even get the moneyline on my book for games lined that high

 

[axp59]

I know you guys are working on some other queries, but if you could do one more I'd appreciate it. Sub .500 teams at home vs above .500 teams on Friday night, the last 4 weeks. Thanks. Will help me hopefully on the GSW and Hornets game.

WP<50 and o:WP>50 and day=Friday and date>=20090301 and site=home

 

[Supaman33]

Thanks slice, I agree that it should not soley be relied upon, but it is nice to have another tool to add to the repertoire.