NBA FRI 040309 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[axp59]

have been warned about it .staying in real nice resort lots of security ..thanks who you looking at tonight ax

this may be it for me apart from my homer action

DAL/MEM U196

 

[axp59]

:topic:
Anyone see the crazy shit going on in Binghampton, NY??

HOLY CRAP 12 killed so far

 

[easterntimezone]

OKC Vs Blazers


When the Thunder have beaten good teams (and it's happened a handful of times) it's usually been because they've rebounded decently and the other team forgot to play defense, letting them run away with the score. Or the other team has been San Antonio, whichever.

Absent either of those two things happening, this should be a win for Portland.

Keys to the Game

1. Interior dominance would be one way to safely put this game away. They're not going to intimidate you in the middle. Aldridge, Oden, even some drivers should be able to have a field day. The big guys might be able to bully people around for rebounds as well. If you take away Oklahoma City's rebounding ability you've probably won the game.

2. This Durant dude is good, but young. Go ahead and run a lot of different players and looks at him. Front him, then double-him, then push him around. Throw Batum on him, Outlaw, maybe LaMarcus. Don't let him get settled. Make him score uncomfortably. He'll get his points but if he's having to work and use clock to do so it's unlikely anyone else will ride to the rescue with enough punch to push the team over the top.

3. Test their commitment to get back on defense just like you tested Utah.

4. Remember that outside of Durant and Green, this team doesn't really like to shoot threes. You can watch the inside a little closer. Deny the drive first and worry about the bomb later, after they've proven they can hit.

5. This is another game where non-stop bench scoring would overwhelm the opponent beyond their capacity to compensate.

Final Thoughts

This is an important game for Portland. It's a division game. It also begins a road trip where two losses are likely. It would be a huge mistake for the Blazers to concentrate on Houston and San Antonio and take OKC and Memphis lightly. 1-3 would be quite the schedule dampener with only 7 games remaining total. Just come out and take care of business. It doesn't have to be pretty

Although McMillen is likely to remind his young squad about not looking ahead, the Thunder can be a challenging opponent at home where they enjoy rabid fan support.

Portland will need to get out early from the starting gate - if Oklahoma City builds a comfortable advantage, Portland's chances of closing the gap are promising given the Thunder's inability to hold large leads - but given the Trail Blazers' rather predictable offensive sets and w/o the home court advantage of the Rose Garden, the Thunder may be able to eke one out - have been better at closing at games recently when compared to their early season collapses.

 

[Slicer]

2pm Accuscore update:

Bobcats 1.1 & 179.7
Spurs 1.6 & 196.6
Celtics 9.4 & 182.6
Mavs 8.7 & 192.9
Blazers 7.1 & 189.7
Magic 6.3 & 184.5
Jazz 14.7 & 203.3
Suns 16.3 & 245.5
Hornets 2.4 & 220.4
Lakers 6.1 & 201.5

That being said the following plays fall into some system parameters:

Lakers Over 196 (5.5 Variance 3-2) Top Over 11-6

Celtics -4.5 (4+ Favorite Variance 1-7) Top Fav 10-10

Pacers +4 and Warriors +5 (2.1-2.9 variance dogs are 15-22-1

Heat +4.5 (Variance 3.0-3.9 are 11-8) Top Dog 7-13

 

[CoFred]

Ax, are you locked in for a full unit on the Dallas Under? Quite the crappy day here in the northeast huh? Hopefully a winning ticket tonight brightens up our day.

 

[mpnyc76]

I'm looking at a decent NOT UNDER PLAY right now.

What's everyone's read on New Orleans at Golden State?

i love this over

 

[cubboy]

binghamton makes the dance and the town goes nuts.. just kidding in all honesty my prayers go out to the families.just seen the post what is going on ax you said 12 killed?

 

[mpnyc76]

Thanks...looks like a pass.

do not get talked out of your plays Ax

 

[axp59]

Ax, are you locked in for a full unit on the Dallas Under? Quite the crappy day here in the northeast huh? Hopefully a winning ticket tonight brightens up our day.

Yeah, I had to lock it in. Going to continue my bday celebration tonight at Hooters and can't wait around for this to move up a hook. Money is close on both sides of 196 but U was +105.

BOL Cor

 

[axp59]

binghamton makes the dance and the town goes nuts.. just kidding in all honesty my prayers go out to the families.just seen the post what is going on ax you said 12 killed?

yeah, guys shoots up an immigration office and has 20-30 hostages but 12 dead already.

 

[axp59]

do not get talked out of your plays Ax

Crap, you're like that guy on my shoulder...LOL you're right though...I really have a feeling on this and looks like it'll settle right at 217.5

 

[mpnyc76]

Crap, you're like that guy on my shoulder...LOL you're right though...I really have a feeling on this and looks like it'll settle right at 217.5

:mj07:
im just saying - everytime i have seen you talked out of or into a pick - it winds up biting you. you're a great capper with great instincts, don't fight them. when you post your plays right off the bat without and back and forth - those are the ones that usually win.

 

[granpa]

Any of those against ELITE teams??

Just got back from lunch. Here's all of them.
Mavs, Hawks, Twolves, Bulls, Bobcats, Hornets, Blazers, Clippers, Suns, Spurs & Heat.

 

[mpnyc76]

6 of the last 8 games bw the jazz and twolves have gone over 210 - if this line keeps dropping i may have to take the not under.
anyone have any thoughts on Char/Mia or Phx/Sac?

 

[axp59]

:mj07:
im just saying - everytime i have seen you talked out of or into a pick - it winds up biting you. you're a great capper with great instincts, don't fight them. when you post your plays right off the bat without and back and forth - those are the ones that usually win.

Thanks pal...you always keep me on the straight and narrow and it's appreciated!

 

[axp59]

6 of the last 8 games bw the jazz and twolves have gone over 210 - if this line keeps dropping i may have to take the not under.
anyone have any thoughts on Char/Mia or Phx/Sac?

even at 183, I still like the under here

that Phx/Sac number is ridiculous and I've learned my lesson. Not touching this at all.

 

[BIGWave]

im just saying - everytime i have seen you talked out of or into a pick - it winds up biting you. you're a great capper with great instincts, don't fight them. when you post your plays right off the bat without and back and forth - those are the ones that usually win.

TOTAL ly agree with you............(FRIday pun intended)!!!!!
1st instincts are the best gift any of us have.........

 

[joe_shmoe]

TOTAL ly agree with you............(FRIday pun intended)!!!!!
1st instincts are the best gift any of us have.........

Hell NO!!! I hate my instinct and find it profitable to fade my instinct. If I like a game right away, that means I should do research and find reasons to take the other side. I'm not kidding about this.

I'm sure for Ax and many others, your instincts are better, but for me, my initial lean is wack.

 

[burnetto57]

burnetto57

burnetto57

Don't know if any of u saw the Utah game LN - but - the announcers kept repeating how key Utah players were saying what a huge game this is for them - really played it up like a must win game ( on the road where Utah is 0 of L3 now and have 3 road games comming up - which they cud loose all 3 - and the fact they're likely to play Denver and Denver will have H. C Adv - 1st round). So, the statement was a valid point. Result: they were never in the game - got blown out more than score indicated and did not seem to play - like a team that felt they 'had to win'.

Point: there's something wrong with this team and there in a tough spot tonight. I think they will either destroy Minny or probably get beat by a nothing to loose Minny team.

So, that's my .02 worth - however this plays into capping this game situationally - side or O/U I don't know - but this Utah team has to be feeling really lousy about LN game.

 

[BillyBatts]

Im gonna go ahead and lock the Mavs under in as well. I really liked Golden St as a big play, but it has jumped from 3.5 to 5. Is this due to Ellis's status? I see he has been upgraded to probable. Any inout?