NBA FRI 040309 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[bostonsbetter]

LOL, yep going to SAUGUS...Only Hooters left in the area right? The one in Boston is closed. Maybe I will see you. Ray Allen shirt????I'll keep an eye out!

Man thats funny stuff... small world...

But yeah im trying to convince a friend to go but his ex is a hooters girl now so I dont know how that one will go...

Either way... GO CELTICS!!!

 

[jlippens]

I'm concerned about the Hornets game for the obvious reasons-- The Warriors without their two big scorers, NO being a generally slower team....the 217 seems like a bizarro number and therefore it seems to be trendy to take the over, but I just don't see it, even with Peja and David West back.

 

[PickNPop]

I'm concerned about the Hornets game for the obvious reasons-- The Warriors without their two big scorers, NO being a generally slower team....the 217 seems like a bizarro number and therefore it seems to be trendy to take the over, but I just don't see it, even with Peja and David West back.

Who is the other one besides Captain Jack? Maggette? They did put up a ridiculous amount the other night with Maggette limited to a first half cameo. My only concern is Ellis who hurt himself last game but should still suit up tonight. The main question is how effective will be? A poor night from him will single-handedly kill the over IMO.

 

[corndogking]

That 246 number in Phoenix is nuts.....

Am I crazy for liking Suckramento ML(+2200)? Suns are too erratic....

 

[jlippens]

The Suns aren't all that erratic. They consistently destroy bad teams. They consistently lose to good teams. That's about it.

 

[Tzlfs]

It Ain't Necessarily So

It Ain't Necessarily So

Chief, you need a better pair of goggles. You've got 5-9 ATS for the bad home teams vs. the better visitors the last four Friday nights, and 5 OVER, 9 UNDER in those games:

Season Mo Day Team site Opponent Line Tot PF PA SU ATS ats mar OU
2008-09 3 6 Charlotte h Atlanta -2 185 98 91 W W 5 O
2008-09 3 6 Toronto h Miami 1.5 205 102 108 L L -4.5 O
2008-09 3 13 Washington h Orlando 8.5 197.5 103 112 L L -0.5 O
2008-09 3 13 Charlotte h Houston 1 183.5 86 91 L L -4 U
2008-09 3 13 Milwaukee h New Orleans 5 198 86 95 L L -4 U
2008-09 3 13 Sacramento h Cleveland 11 199 123 126 L W 8 O
2008-09 3 13 Golden St. h Dallas 1.5 223 119 110 W W 10.5 O
2008-09 3 20 Oklahoma City h Utah 4 199.5 94 101 L L -3 U
2008-09 3 20 Sacramento h Boston -3.5 182.5 77 80 L L -6.5 U
2008-09 3 20 Golden St. h Philadelphia 1.5 226 109 111 L L -0.5 U
2008-09 3 27 New York h New Orleans 5 205.5 103 93 W W 15 U
2008-09 3 27 New Jersey h LA Lakers 7.5 205 95 103 L L -0.5 U
2008-09 3 20 Indiana h Dallas -1 210 92 94 L L -3 U
2008-09 3 20 New Jersey h Miami -2.5 201 96 88 W W 5.5 U

 

[Philip_Rivers]

Kings/Suns: K-Mart out

Kings/Suns: K-Mart out

Don't know if anyone wrote about this yet...but Kevin Martin is out for tonite's game vs. Suns. Without him, I don't know how the Kings can produce his 25 points per game.

Does U 245 all of sudden sound good?

http://www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/sports/kings/archives/021274.html

 

[PickNPop]

Don't know if anyone wrote about this yet...but Kevin Martin is out for tonite's game vs. Suns. Without him, I don't know how the Kings can produce his 25 points per game.

Does U 245 all of sudden sound good?

http://www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/sports/kings/archives/021274.html

I was thinking that as well, PR. It puzzles me that the total hasnt changed much, if at all...

 

[Philip_Rivers]

Well...I did some research and it actually looks like K-Mart scores below is average at the Suns. I don't know how this affects my thinking.. The guy did go off for 50 last game.

 

[Mindframe913]

:director:

I think it would be wise to just take every over from here on out in the nba...

This is a shit show.

 

[Mindframe913]

im goin to get drunkkkkkkkkkk :violin:

 

[Ace_Ace]

OKC Vs Blazers


When the Thunder have beaten good teams (and it's happened a handful of times) it's usually been because they've rebounded decently and the other team forgot to play defense, letting them run away with the score. Or the other team has been San Antonio, whichever.

Absent either of those two things happening, this should be a win for Portland.

Keys to the Game

1. Interior dominance would be one way to safely put this game away. They're not going to intimidate you in the middle. Aldridge, Oden, even some drivers should be able to have a field day. The big guys might be able to bully people around for rebounds as well. If you take away Oklahoma City's rebounding ability you've probably won the game.

2. This Durant dude is good, but young. Go ahead and run a lot of different players and looks at him. Front him, then double-him, then push him around. Throw Batum on him, Outlaw, maybe LaMarcus. Don't let him get settled. Make him score uncomfortably. He'll get his points but if he's having to work and use clock to do so it's unlikely anyone else will ride to the rescue with enough punch to push the team over the top.

3. Test their commitment to get back on defense just like you tested Utah.

4. Remember that outside of Durant and Green, this team doesn't really like to shoot threes. You can watch the inside a little closer. Deny the drive first and worry about the bomb later, after they've proven they can hit.

5. This is another game where non-stop bench scoring would overwhelm the opponent beyond their capacity to compensate.

Final Thoughts

This is an important game for Portland. It's a division game. It also begins a road trip where two losses are likely. It would be a huge mistake for the Blazers to concentrate on Houston and San Antonio and take OKC and Memphis lightly. 1-3 would be quite the schedule dampener with only 7 games remaining total. Just come out and take care of business. It doesn't have to be pretty

Portland really came to play tonight :toast:

 

[burnetto57]

burnetto57

burnetto57

Don't know if any of u saw the Utah game LN - but - the announcers kept repeating how key Utah players were saying what a huge game this is for them - really played it up like a must win game ( on the road where Utah is 0 of L3 now and have 3 road games comming up - which they cud loose all 3 - and the fact they're likely to play Denver and Denver will have H. C Adv - 1st round). So, the statement was a valid point. Result: they were never in the game - got blown out more than score indicated and did not seem to play - like a team that felt they 'had to win'.

Point: there's something wrong with this team and there in a tough spot tonight. I think they will either destroy Minny or probably get beat by a nothing to loose Minny team.

So, that's my .02 worth - however this plays into capping this game situationally - side or O/U I don't know - but this Utah team has to be feeling really lousy about LN game.

As I watch Utah game unfold - kinda think I had it pegged - but, what I really will be interested in is the potential fade factor in their N3 games all away - particularly on Sun - being their 3rd game in 4 nights and @ N.Orl. There's somethin really wrong with this team.
L few secs - whether they win or loose don't think it will change Sun's game. Will depend on who's playin for N. Orl - cause they don't seem much better.

 

[Ools]

on those 2 plus GS and I'm believing in the T-wolves keeping it respectable 2-nite for a 1/2 unit.

capped the t-wolves pretty good - learning - wish I trusted it for more than a 1/2 unit!:toast:

 

[axp59]

Can't buy a winner.

looks like the writing is on the wall this season. I'm going to have to shut this down. It seems like getting ready for MLB is cutting into my time capping NBA games or I'm rushing through the NBA to get to the baseball work I need to do before the season starts. Either way, I can't keep bleeding cash like this so going to end the regular season now and focus on baseball research for the next week or so then hit the NBA playoffs. I ended up turning a very nice profit this season.

Some of you guys already have my email but if you don't and you'd like to get a hold of me, send me a PM on the other side and will be glad to share that info with you. BOL guys! will see you for the playoffs and MLB thereafter.

 

[burnetto57]

You should have an e-mail from me AX?

 

[burnetto57]

Hey how were the girls....... I mean the wings tonight?

 

[burnetto57]

burnetto57

burnetto57

Boy , my new account with Matchbook is driving me crazy - I've never seen anything like the way they have that set up. If anyone has experience w/ this - I cud certainly use some coaching.

Also may want to keep an eye on the not Unders tonight - someone on the other side seems to thing huge % adv to going w/ non-Under rest of reg season when 2 playoff teams meet. Very small sample though.

 

[Ace_Ace]

Can't buy a winner.

looks like the writing is on the wall this season. I'm going to have to shut this down. It seems like getting ready for MLB is cutting into my time capping NBA games or I'm rushing through the NBA to get to the baseball work I need to do before the season starts. Either way, I can't keep bleeding cash like this so going to end the regular season now and focus on baseball research for the next week or so then hit the NBA playoffs. I ended up turning a very nice profit this season.

Some of you guys already have my email but if you don't and you'd like to get a hold of me, send me a PM on the other side and will be glad to share that info with you. BOL guys! will see you for the playoffs and MLB thereafter.

Come on AX . Hang in there.

It's all about motivation from teams fighting for seeds .

Don't wager but just keep a track of teams & their play. It will help in playoffs.

Stick around bro :0corn

 

[CoFred]

Ax, don't worry about it. We're not going to turn on you because of a couple bad games.

I was wondering if your method of capping was different for the playoffs. GL