NBA MON 110209 early thoughts - value hunting

[axp59]

I wonder how teams do off back to back OTs. (AX, any info?)

according to my numbers last 3 seasons:
NYK actually had a b2b OT sit last year and beat TOR by 30 at home. Problem with that is that one game was before the Allstar break and the one after.

I ran it for b2b and home dog and UTA won by 21 vs. Thunder last season.

league-wide 8-8 in this sit L3

LOL, there's absolutely nothing here to hang a bet on.

 

[axp59]

Where does MN fall on the ML scale?

Pistol

Serious positive value for MIN @ +330 and calculated at 33% chance of winning. expected value at $43.19. That's huge. Even at +8, value is $16.70 calculated at 58% to cover.

This may end up being my only play of the evening.

 

[axp59]

BillyBatts/Ax and co.....what do you boys think about the CHAR/NJ un of 177.5??
Seems to low to me? Any takes?

This is begging for the over. I think it's at 175 now. I wouldn't touch this with the bookie's money. :scared

 

[axp59]

Ax,

thanks so much. I am really learning a lot from all of you guys. posts in here. I was wondering if it is ok to ask where "across the street" is. I would send an email or pm but it is turned off. thanks in advance.

Not sure if you got your answer but we're not allowed to post links here.:nono:

SEE OH VEE EE ARE ES DOT COM

 

[axp59]

illuminati has some good info on his thread. worth a look to support or abandon your play.

 

[BillyBatts]

This is begging for the over. I think it's at 175 now. I wouldn't touch this with the bookie's money. :scared

Ya, I leaned over initially, but this one could be REAL ugly. It's begging for over bets, but its either over or nothing for me. When 2 lousy teams meet, def intensity goes out the window. Now whether they can shoot or not.......................................:shrug:

 

[kegray1]

One thing I find strange about Utah being 7.5 point favs at home over Houston this year is that last year Houston was 8.5 underdogs in one trip into Utah with Ming and Artest in the starting lineup.
Utah was -5.5 point favs at home again a few weeks after that and won by 13.

Deron Williams had 26 points and 14 assists in that one while holding Brooks to 3/8 9 points and 3 assists.
Go figure as to why the line would be lower for this one????

 

[BillyBatts]

Kegray--- I just don't see enough defense for Utah to put this scrappy Rockets team away. Hoping it goes back to 8.5 and jumping on Rockets.

Like the TWolves more as the day goes on too:mj09:

Still looking at all my intial leans

 

[axp59]

One thing I find strange about Utah being 7.5 point favs at home over Houston this year is that last year Houston was 8.5 underdogs in one trip into Utah with Ming and Artest in the starting lineup.
Utah was -5.5 point favs at home again a few weeks after that and won by 13.

Deron Williams had 26 points and 14 assists in that one while holding Brooks to 3/8 9 points and 3 assists.
Go figure as to why the line would be lower for this one????

kegray, that number does seem a little off. I can't really see a pattern from the L3 but this is a different HOU team as you've mentioned. i capped this game right at the opening -9. I do like your 1H play. A little more cushion for my taste. BOL

 

[easterntimezone]

This is begging for the over. I think it's at 175 now. I wouldn't touch this with the bookie's money. :scared

Two teams lacking in firepower - and given Brown's insistence on a methodical, deliberate offense, this very well could skirt short of 175 - no play at all and expecting a snoozefest at best.

 

[easterntimezone]

Kegray--- I just don't see enough defense for Utah to put this scrappy Rockets team away. Hoping it goes back to 8.5 and jumping on Rockets.

This ain't your grandfather's Jazz - there's still a recurring myth that they still play hard-nosed defense whereas they are more prone to engaging in a shootout - Deron Williams is first and foremost a SCORING point and the rest of the team follows suit. Do they occasionally play lockdown defense? Yes, but fewer and further b/w than one would anticipate - as in around 5 minutes at most out of a total 48. As the kids say: THE GAME DONE CHANGED. And Sloan has too.

Houston will try to push tempo and Williams and company will reciprocate.

 

[axp59]

Like the TWolves more as the day goes on too:mj09:

Games like this worries me. it's like a Halloween treat but treat games are usually earlier in the evening to lure the player into doubling up on the later games. What I could be missing is the lure and this could actually be the death-blow late night game where the books get their money back. LMAO :wall: ever since reading the excerpts from blowing the whistle, i'm full of conspiracy theories. :142smilie

 

[easterntimezone]

LMAO :wall: ever since reading the excerpts from blowing the whistle, i'm full of reality theories. :142smilie

 

[axp59]

Houston will try to push tempo and Williams and company will reciprocate.

You seeing an O opportunity here ETZ. I used my capping routine for the first time today for a test run and capped this one to go way over my 3 possession cushion. Still too early to act on it obviously but I was thinking this number is a bit low.

 

[easterntimezone]

You seeing an O opportunity here ETZ. I used my capping routine for the first time today for a test run and capped this one to go way over my 3 possession cushion. Still too early to act on it obviously but I was thinking this number is a bit low.

I'd err on that versus the U, to be honest - the perception of the Jazz as a stalwart defensive unit is as fallacious as the Lakers being a team that blows the competition out of the water each and very time (whereas the games bear out that they won't really try unless they deem the opponent to be worthy of an honest effort).

Completely off-topic, will be shipping sometime later this week Ax - been late getting around to packaging so mea culpa.

 

[axp59]

I'd err on that versus the U, to be honest - the perception of the Jazz as a stalwart defensive unit is as fallacious as the Lakers being a team that blows the competition out of the water each and very time (whereas the games bear out that they won't really try unless they deem the opponent to be worthy of an honest effort).

Completely off-topic, will be shipping sometime later this week Ax - been late getting around to packaging so mea culpa.

Thank you:mj07: LMFAO, you f'n hate those Lakers. You always seem to stick it to 'em EVERY chance you get.

Bro, take your time man. Nobody's fault. You're doing a nice thing for me!! I've also been on this new diet and this is going to be much appreciated. Many thanks brother.

 

[kegray1]

Kegray--- I just don't see enough defense for Utah to put this scrappy Rockets team away. Hoping it goes back to 8.5 and jumping on Rockets.

I think you can drop the "S" from scrappy when describing this Houston team this year. :142smilie

Trust me when I say the first two wins this year have come with smoke and mirrors. They are one of the weakest teams in the West this year. Utah will not have to defend to stop Houston. Just play typical physical Utah ball and rebound.

You have issues when 6'6" Chuck Hayes is your starting center. He may just the worst starting center in NBA history.

Add in Joe Crawford as the ref who calls it tight and the Rox are in for a beatdown.

I would advise playing Utah or nothing in this one,but that is just me.

Good luck in whatever you do.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Leans for today:

Nets @ Bobcats O175
Hornets @ Knicks O202.5
Timberwolves @ Clippers O196.5

edit: adding Bobcats -7

t:team=Nets and tp:margin<0 and tp:season=season and 10<=po:three pointers attempted and 50<=100.*po:three pointers made/po:three pointers attempted and po:season=season and 20051213<=date
BOL :scared
Joe

 

[easterntimezone]

Thank you:mj07: LMFAO, you f'n hate those Lakers. You always seem to stick it to 'em EVERY chance you get.

Just a means of reminding myself not to get roped in thinking like I USED to and end up losing on perception versus reality. Can't dispute the talent, but questionable heart at times - which supports the claim that talent can best heart/passion/spirit, especially if that's all you've got going and are lacking in serious physical ability/abilities.

I look at Kobe and then Walton, Benga, Bynum, Fisher, etc. and wonder how the supporting cast would fare if Kobe were to be lost for an entire season.

 

[BIGWave]

Thank you:mj07: LMFAO, you f'n hate those Lakers. You always seem to stick it to 'em EVERY chance you get.

Bro, take your time man. Nobody's fault. You're doing a nice thing for me!! I've also been on this new diet and this is going to be much appreciated. Many thanks brother.

Fat loss or bulking goals?????
Best of luck and success with this ax.