NBA MON 110209 early thoughts - value hunting
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
Thank you sir. I've been a lean and fit Marine my whole life. I just wanted to look good for the Marine Corps BDay. I'm at a stable fighting weight of 180. That's far from the 205 during the NBA playoff and also the time I took that karate test. I just couldn't move at that weight.
I'm waiting on one of my locals. most here know my 3 poss pref and 9 would be great but 8 is less than 3 poss. I'm not going to buy anything. I'm a loyal customer so sometimes he throws me a little something. (he never learns LOL) :mj06:
Dammit, the Bobs are now a possible play for me.:shrug:
And as for the Jazz-Rockets, I think Gray talked me off the ledge on that one. I could see that number going way over though on the total.
BOL with ur Jazz bet, I hope you're right!!
* Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
* Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games as a home favorite.
* Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
* Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
* Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games as a favorite.
* Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
* Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Under is 6-1 in Kings last 7 overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Kings last 7 vs. Western Conference.
* Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
* Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
* Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 Monday games.
Im not a big trends guy but wouldnt the numbers point to a play on the UNDER here? My first indictation was that it was high and after studying i still feel the same way. thoughts guys?
* Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games as a home favorite.
* Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
* Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
* Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games as a favorite.
* Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
* Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Under is 6-1 in Kings last 7 overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Kings last 7 vs. Western Conference.
* Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
* Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
* Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 Monday games.
Im not a big trends guy but wouldnt the numbers point to a play on the UNDER here? My first indictation was that it was high and after studying i still feel the same way. thoughts guys?
Hell, if that's all I saw, I'd be all over it too. Here's the problem with this. The sample is way too small.
More important:
The operator for probability of an occurrence across multiple events is not one of addition but multiplication. Therefore, if there is a 60% probability of an under in one situation and another 60% for another, the probability of both happening (an Under for sure) is not 120% but 36%. Thus the more probabilities thrown out there, mathematically, the lesser the chance of satisfying all instances.
Final word: Let this be one that supports or rejects your opinion but it should never be the basis for it. BOL
My $0.02 for the NFL game tonight.
Not doing anything but watching, just curious why/how some people have ATL's defense rated so poorly.
While ATL's defense isn't going to be confused with IND or DEN, I question how frogster has it dead last.
Before taking strength of schedule into account (and that would actually move them up a little), I have ATL's defense rated as follows in different categories
yards per pass 18th
yards per rush 26th
yards per play 24th
points per game 11th
yards per point 5th
overall yards given up 25th
Again, not doing anything, just wondering if I'm getting my numbers from someplace different than other people or why people think their defense is soooo bad.
In the NBA, have the following leans:
NYK, but would want more than I'm ever going to get, at least 4, probably 4.5
HOU, but wouldn't be surprised by a blowout.
NOR/NYK under.
Good Luck,
Bart
Not doing anything but watching, just curious why/how some people have ATL's defense rated so poorly.
While ATL's defense isn't going to be confused with IND or DEN, I question how frogster has it dead last.
Before taking strength of schedule into account (and that would actually move them up a little), I have ATL's defense rated as follows in different categories
yards per pass 18th
yards per rush 26th
yards per play 24th
points per game 11th
yards per point 5th
overall yards given up 25th
Again, not doing anything, just wondering if I'm getting my numbers from someplace different than other people or why people think their defense is soooo bad.
In the NBA, have the following leans:
NYK, but would want more than I'm ever going to get, at least 4, probably 4.5
HOU, but wouldn't be surprised by a blowout.
NOR/NYK under.
Good Luck,
Bart
Can't get anything better from my local so action play on MIN +8
BOL BWD
hope you get those tix!
fyi: still waiting to lock the total
Not even going to watch the game. Will have a WS viewing with the canine crew tonight. :0corn
- Mar 18, 2009
- 173
- 0
- 0
I like the Under in the Char game. If it gets to 176.5 or better, I will lock it in. A whopping 164 pts scored in regulation vs a supposedly fast paced NYK team.
In the 12 quarters (regulation) the bobs have played this season, they (bobs and opponents) have scored over 45 points on 2 occasions. They have yet to score 50 or more.
I like the game to be slow paced with at least one quarter falling below 40 pts.
In the 12 quarters (regulation) the bobs have played this season, they (bobs and opponents) have scored over 45 points on 2 occasions. They have yet to score 50 or more.
I like the game to be slow paced with at least one quarter falling below 40 pts.
Plays
Plays
Taking under 8.5 in WS--see a 3-1 game
Have a strong lean on Falcons and under, just trying to figure out which one I like better. Think we're getting extra value with ATL because of thier terrible showing against Dal and NE, but those games WERE OUTDOORS!! Thier lack of size on D and team spped in better in a done on turf.
NBA Plays locking in
Charlotte -7
Knicks-Hornets UNDER 202.5
TWolves+8
Good luck tonight fellas:toast:
Plays
Taking under 8.5 in WS--see a 3-1 game
Have a strong lean on Falcons and under, just trying to figure out which one I like better. Think we're getting extra value with ATL because of thier terrible showing against Dal and NE, but those games WERE OUTDOORS!! Thier lack of size on D and team spped in better in a done on turf.
NBA Plays locking in
Charlotte -7
Knicks-Hornets UNDER 202.5
TWolves+8
Good luck tonight fellas:toast:
