NBA Monday 051909-early thoughts-value hunting (Playoffs)

[Slicer]

Figured I would start the thread since I'm up early today:

Accuscore:

Lakers by 7.3 and 211.1


MLB: Rangers POD

I'm taking the Lakers -6.5, BOL to everyone.

 

[ImNext1000]

i see what u saying slicer, im leaning on the under myself ......i might just get me some wings and a 6 pack and enjoy the first game, dont know how these 2 teams are going to play

i might do something for the 2nd half

BOL :mj06:

 

[axp59]

i see what u saying slicer, im leaning on the under myself ......i might just get me some wings and a 6 pack and enjoy the first game, dont know how these 2 teams are going to play

i might do something for the 2nd half

BOL :mj06:

I'm thinking the the total is also off here. While I still think the DEN side is the stronger play, I may also play the under here. BOL

 

[Eagle123]

I'm thinking the the total is also off here. While I still think the DEN side is the stronger play, I may also play the under here. BOL

Wait for you confimation Ax

 

[Griffin8s]

214.5 aeems pretty high to me for this game. Think I will ride the under with you Ax.:00hour And to be honest I like taking the points here, but may sit and wait for the next game.

 

[grindstone]

Is anybody taking a stab at Denver for the Series????

 

[joe_shmoe]

As soon as my book posts that 1Q total, I will pounce on the under. It should comes out at 54 and I don't think the 1st Q reaches the 50's.

 

[ari]

I really have no idea about the total for this game - the Under does seem to be the consensus call at MadJack and I am happy to tail away for a small wager. But I am a bit surprised to see most on the Nugs. Granted, they have looked really good in the playoffs - but their competition has not been good (maybe the same could be said about the Rockets with no Yao - but man they looked better without him when Artest was playing team ball against LA). There is no way that even the arrogant Lakers take this game one lightly. I am leaning on LA and getting ready to lock it in at -6 at 5dimes (one of the last books that have not started to move it due to the expected LA $ money coming in today). As always - I look forward to feedback - I got killed Sunday, a tad gun shy, and I hate betting with scared $.....

 

[barts185]

Seems like I'm going against the grain on this one.

I have no play in game 1, but am playing Lakers in the series.

Just curious - what would you have made the price in this series if the Lakers played Denver in the first round?

If you agree that the Lakers would have been a bigger favorite for the series, what happened in the first 2 rounds to change your mind?

DEN beat NOR who had bascially given up on the season and were happy to have made the playoffs and had a hurt Tyson Chandler.

DEN beat DAL who had Josh Howard hurt early on.

With an ineffective Josh Howard on the inside, should DAL have scored more or less?

They scored more. DEN gave up 100.9 points per game in the regular season. They only allowed DAL an average of 97.8 points in their 4 meetings.

They gave up an average of 106.8 to DAL during the second round.

DEN had a great stretch run. Against BAD teams. They played 5 playoff teams in that 14-3 stretch at the end of the season. They went 3-2 against the playoff teams. They beat UTA at home (UTA's road record against playoff teams - BAD). They beat NOR. They beat DAL who was without Howard or Kidd. They lost by 14 to LAL and 28 to POR.

The Lakers have basically shown up when they needed to show up. I think they will take DEN seriously and will show up.

Lakers are 1-6 ATS after a win in the playoffs, so as I said, I have no play on game 1, but really would like to hear something as reasons for liking DEN.

Good Luck,
Bart

 

[grindstone]

Here are some public#'s



LAL/Denv

Spread
LAL 54%
DEN 46%


Total
62% Over
38% Under

Bet # 18559

62% on the over and Vegas drops the line 1/2 point. The under might be a good play I'll keep watching.

Denver has been a great story. They are an exciting team to watch and have gotten better each game after having a mid to late season slump. It seems that they are peaking at the right time of year.Let's not forget who they have played so far. A very poor New Orleans team. Without Chris Paul they wouldn't of even of gotten 20 wins this year.Was NOrl really a team to worry about???

Now lets look at Dallas a team that could exchange scoring with anybody but also can give up a ton of points. Not a typical Carlisle team to be frank. It was a solid series for them to show that they can play both tempos. Chauncey is a very good reader of tempo. He pushed quite a bit more in that series bbecause the opportunities were there. They are not a great defensive team but they play hard and hustled. I expect the Nuggets to keep the tempo more down for this series. I will be definitely looking atthe unders at Staples center. I also expect LA to feel much more free here and for there offense to start clicking again on a consistent basis. Denver hasn't really been pushed yet. This is going to be a bit different for them. I really think LA comes out and sets the tone in Game One. We'll see pretty quickly whether or not Denver has a chance in this series.


All opinions welcomed boys.

 

[mpnyc76]

things very quiet on the night of the western finals. Nugs rust, lakers pound the ball inside, under, under, under

 

[grindstone]

I'm thinking the the total is also off here. While I still think the DEN side is the stronger play, I may also play the under here. BOL

Any tickets in your hands AX, would love to see you at the window tonight Sir or are you still :00x32

 

[mpnyc76]

Any tickets in your hands AX, would love to see you at the window tonight Sir or are you still :00x32

i think this is as much as we're going to get. Nugs and under look like the plays. fwiw - i agree with total but not the side.

 

[axp59]

Here's my NBA card tonight. Equal unit plays...1/2 each. Close to the end and time to protect profits. No need to show off how big your balls are, just how big your wallet is.

[501] DEN GM1 +6?-110

[502] TOTAL u214-110 (DEN GM1 vrs LAKERS GM1)

BOL everyone :toast:

 

[t20boss]

Here's my NBA card tonight. Equal unit plays...1/2 each. Close to the end and time to protect profits. No need to show off how big your balls are, just how big your wallet is.

[501] DEN GM1 +6?-110

[502] TOTAL u214-110 (DEN GM1 vrs LAKERS GM1)

BOL everyone :toast:

Couldn't agree w/you more, pal. Glad we're on the same side for this one. BOL ...

 

[ShivaShante]

This Lakers team is VERY sketchy IMHO! I think they proved that against the Yao-less Rockets. They try to turn it on and off whenever they want (which leads to all the backdoor covers and "rigged" discussions).

I see a hunger in this Nugget team, sorta like the way the Celtics looked last year, or the way the Lakers USED to look, or the way the Pistons used to look with C. Billups at the point during their championship runs. I think his leadership could be the biggest intangible in this series.:director:

LA may have more overall talent, but I think that Nuggets have to toughness and height to bang inside and plenty of shooters to keep all games close. I don't see them getting blown out in any of the games. LA doesn't have that "killer" instinct (except for Kobe) to put teams away.:nono:

I'm taking a shot with Denver for the series +210 and for the this game +7 (bought), and the under 214 for the same reason as most others here!:0corn

GLTA!!!:toast:

 

[axp59]

Boss, like the sound of that coming from Laker country. Maybe some 2H action tonight? BOL bud. I'm kidda liking JoeS action on 1Q and 1H. I got that fvckin itch right now. I'm gonna save that pocket change for my first NASCAR wager this weekend.

 

[axp59]

This Lakers team is VERY sketchy IMHO! I think they proved that against the Yao-less Rockets. They try to turn it on and off whenever they want (which leads to all the backdoor covers and "rigged" discussions).

I see a hunger in this Nugget team, sorta like the way the Celtics looked last year, or the way the Lakers USED to look, or the way the Pistons used to look with C. Billups at the point during their championship runs. I think his leadership could be the biggest intangible in this series.:director:

LA may have more overall talent, but I think that Nuggets have to toughness and height to bang inside and plenty of shooters to keep all games close. I don't see them getting blown out in any of the games. LA doesn't have that "killer" instinct (except for Kobe) to put teams away.:nono:

I'm taking a shot with Denver for the series +210 and for the this game +7 (bought), and the under 214 for the same reason as most others here!:0corn

GLTA!!!:toast:

Exactly! With what I've been reading and hearing the last few days, doubt has crept in for sure but I have to remind myself of the games. I watched both teams in the playoffs. I know what I was looking for. I watched the games as a capper cause I could give two fvcks about these teams. I don't know if I've just completely lost it because I don't see the LAL team that everyone is talking about. Let's see how the Lakers play a team with a real #1 who also happens to be their leader. If I lose this action tonight, I'll chase this all the way back to Mile High, get my money back and then some.

 

[t20boss]

Wow, neck-car - That's one I hadn't wagered on before. I do follow J Gordon and his fine-ass wife. How do you cap those races ?

Same here, been playing junkie action in MLB, 3-4 team parlays - always including sure things like games that Roy Halladay pitches, or the like. Been doing pretty good with it for the most part. How 'bout you ?

Agree - will check back for sure at halftime tonight for possible 2H action w/ya...

 

[Truckin']

Here's my NBA card tonight. Equal unit plays...1/2 each. Close to the end and time to protect profits. No need to show off how big your balls are, just how big your wallet is.

[501] DEN GM1 +6?-110

[502] TOTAL u214-110 (DEN GM1 vrs LAKERS GM1)

BOL everyone :toast:

BOL

Looking forward to a great series
It should be a slugfest :box2: