This guy is a Lakers Insider.........he knows them really well & this is his opinion.
For starters, you can read some of my thoughts on this series in my series preview for Ball Don't Lie. By now, you've heard me point out that while the Lakers still have a ways to go, they have undeniably improved significantly since the first round. So what I want to focus on right now is what I touched on briefly at BDL:
I?m also not convinced that Denver matches up well with L.A. They don?t do the things that cause the Lakers to struggle ? in fact, their game tends to feed into what the Lakers want to do. And it all starts with running.
Denver loves to run. The thing is, so do the Lakers. And it?s not just because they score easy baskets or tire the other team out ? those are the typical, clich? reasons for being a fast-paced team. For the Lakers, it?s more than that. Against the Lakers, your best shot is to take Kobe?s teammates out of the game and make him beat you by himself. And believe me, he can definitely do that ? but at least there?s a chance that his shots don?t go down. But if the entire team gets involved and gets rolling, there?s just no stopping the Lakers.
The Lakers are also much easier to beat if you can convince them not to play defense. And here?s the thing about this squad: Unlike most, it is their offense that creates their defense. When things are clicking offensively, the entire team gets involved and active on defense.
When teams let the Lakers run, it creates easy opportunities across the board, gets all players involved, and generally increases the energy and involvement of the entire team. Most importantly, it fuels them defensively ? and when the role players are contributing and the team is playing defense, this team is virtually impossible to beat.
Of course, the matchups seem to favor Los Angeles, as well. Most glaringly, Houston had what no one in the league has: two premier perimeter defenders that can make life hard for Kobe. Denver doesn?t even have one. Meanwhile, Carmelo Anthony has struggled against the Lakers, and while it?s not something I?m willing to bet my life savings on, it shouldn?t be overlooked. Nene, also, has struggled against Bynum, and Pau Gasol has a clear length advantage over Kenyon Martin. Really, the only matchup I see strongly favoring the Nuggets is the point guard, and I?m intrigued to see how Shannon Brown does defending him ? he?s got the size, strength, and speed, and he?s a very good defender. But will Phil Jackosn play him?
I can't emphasize enough how well the running game plays into the Lakers hands. Usually, when pace is mentioned it is because one team prefers to play slow, and the other fast, which means that whoever can control the pace can control the game. In this case, both teams like to play fast, but it's not the pace of the game itself that really matters here. It's the effect of playing at a high pace.
There are three ways to beat the Lakers, and your best shot is to try and cause all three things to happen.
Get them to play disinterested, low-intensity basketball. When they're not fully engaged, playing with intensity, their defense goes out the window and their offense becomes an endless barrage of jumpshots. But if the Lakers are engaged, playing with intensity, you've got problems.
Convince them not to play defense. You'll still have to deal with their offense, but if they're playing great defense, they're virtually unbeatable. Get them to skip the defensive effort, and you've got a shot.
Take the "rest of the team" out of the game. Kobe Bryant is incredible, and he can beat you all by himself ? but that becomes harder agianst good teams in the playoffs, and this team's strength is in its depth of talent. If the role players and bench mob are involved, hitting shots and creating plays, then you're screwed, because when they play like that, they can beat you without Kobe. Add Kobe to that mix, and it's game over.
It's not always possible to do all of the above. For that matter, it's not always possible to do any of the above. Much of it depends on the Lakers ? did they come to play? Are they running the offense, giving the effort on defense? If so, there may not be much you can do. But what you can do is do the things that make it more likely for the Lakers to take themselves out of the game ? and, conversely, not do the things that get them into it.
Unfortunately for the Nuggets, running is the number one thing that gets the Lakers into the game. It often involves Kobe passing, other players making great plays, and role players finishing. Most of all, it builds energy. And as some have pointed out here at SS&R, the Lakers' defense is fueled by their offense (as opposed to most other teams, which are the other way around).
Getting easy offense on the run builds energy, fuels the defense, and gets the entire team involved and engaged. All of the things the Lakers' opponents don't want to happen.
Let's talk more about Kobe. Houston had not one, but two first class perimeter defenders that could make life difficult for Kobe. How did that go for them? He averaged 27.4 points per game while shooting .453 from the field and .344 from distance, along with 5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 2 steals, and only 1.57 turnovers. We've seen him better, but he didn't exactly struggle.
Now consider that the Nuggets don't even have one perimeter defender that can make Kobe's life difficult, and this prediction is easy. The WCF should be Kobe's best series to date, and his easiest. And what if, as I've suggested, the rest of the team is involved, playing with energy and intesity, getting out on the break and hitting shots? Then you've got even less room to throw extra help at Bryant ? meaning he's going to have a field day.
The big men are really the X-Factors here. Nene tends to struggle against Bynum, but aside from a couple good showings, Bynum hasn't been himself lately. Kenyon Martin and Chris "Birdman" Andersen might be able to play physical enough defense to bother Pau Gasol, but if Gasol can respond with some mental toughness and resiliency, he's got the length and agility to get the best of that matchup. On the other end of the court, the Nuggets' front line isn't exactly an offensive force in the paint. If Gasol and Bynum are active on defense, their length and quickness will be a nightmare for the Nuggets' bigs.
Still, all of this depends on which Gasol and Bynum show up. If they pull a disappearing act, the Nuggets play with high energy and will take advantage of them. But if they come to play, the matchup is theirs to exploit.
At the point guard, I'm hoping to see more of Shannon Brown. Billups is one of the best at that position, and knows how to win in the playoffs. I like Fisher in this series more than in the last one, because it's not about quick guard penetration. Chauncey can get into the paint when he wants, but his strengths are his size and strength, and his ability to hit the 3-ball. Fisher's size and strength will help him against Billups, but more significantly, Shannon "UPS" Brown also has the required size and strength, and he's also got something Fisher has lost: speed and lateral quickness. I'm not at all confident in Phil Jackson's point guard rotations, but I'm really hoping Brown gets a real chance at guarding Billups.
Again, though, this matchup may actually depend on the Lakers' bigs. Lakers fans remember that Chauncey has beat us in the past, and some may not be that confident in Fisher's ability to defend him. But that's misplaced blame from the 2004 Finals. Billups had his way not because Fisher couldn't keep up, but because Shaq wouldn't defend the pick and roll. His own words, to Baron Davis at the end of last season:
"The Lakers' weakness was pick-and-roll defense, so we were going to make them stop that," [Billups] says. "It didn't matter who was guarding me; my job was to pick-and-roll Shaq. Every series has its own version of that. And if we have to run it every time, we run it every time."
If the Lakers' bigs don't help on the pick and roll, Laker fans may be in for a dreadfully familiar sight. But if Gasol and Bynum play the pick and roll the way they did in Game 7 against Houston, Fisher and Brown should be able to handle him on the perimeter, and we'll be off to a good start defensively.
Carmelo Anthony is the matchup that puzzles me. He has really struggled against the Lakers ? even with the likes of Luke Walton guarding him. On the one hand, I don't feel at all confident predicting that such a trend will continue. On the other, it's almost too hard to ignore. Look for the Lakers to continue what they've been doing against him ? if they can take him out of the game, the Nuggets will be hard pressed to keep up with our Lakers.
It comes down to the same old things: Energy and effort, defensive intensity, and the matchups of the bigs and smalls.
Overall, I think the Nuggets are a better team than the Rockets, but I don't think they matchup well with the Lakers. Their game isn't designed to take the Lakers out of their game; quite the opposite. And if the Lakers can play their game, and do so with energy and passion, I really do believe they're nearly impossible to beat.
Lakers in 7.
