NBA Playoffs
- Thread starter DZ
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What an ending last night! You could definitely argue that we got screwed in not winning -2.5 or that we got real lucky to win at all. Ultimately I'm surprised the Rockets have hung in as well as they have.
Really not sure where I'm leaning tonight yet so I'm looking forward to your thoughts.
opcorn2
Really not sure where I'm leaning tonight yet so I'm looking forward to your thoughts.
opcorn2Playing this now before it goes down further...
CLE/ATL UNDER 196.5 x2
CLE/ATL 1Q UNDER 50 (-115) x4
I plan to look for some in-game value on the under, but in case we don't see it early on, I'm playing the 1st quarter under slightly larger than the full game. I also lean strongly to the Hawks on the side. I'm less concerned about Carroll's injury than I am Irving's from line move perspective as Irving being out will carry more weight in the number going up further, while news of Carroll's injury came out shortly after game 1 and that should already be factored into the line. Yes, Carroll is critical to the success of this Hawks team and no Mike Scott or Sefolosha makes this team particularly shallow at a position that is critical from a defensive perspective in matching up with the best player in the NBA, but I believe we will see a resilient Hawks team tonight, with or without Carroll. Good teams, especially those that play a more team-oriented style of basketball, seem to have a habit of stepping up in their first game without their best player and Carroll has been the Hawks best player in the playoffs. Coach Budz is an excellent coach who will find a way to adjust with the available personnel and he probably realizes that their best chance to win is to slow down and control the pace of game tonight. Their chief concern should be to keep LeBron from getting out ahead in transition and converting easy baskets at the rim or kicking it out to Shump/JR/'Dova for transition 3's. To do that, ATL will need to play strong and coordinated team defense, take possessions deep into the shot clock and quickly get back on missed shots. This is a well-coached and disciplined team that will give max effort, one that you can feel confident in betting on even with their best player missing. We missed the chance to get the Hawks at -2 or better, but I think there's a good chance that will resurface before game time for those looking to make a bet on the side before tip. Regardless, the best value will most likely be found during in-game wagering. Expect the public to take the Cavs plus the points as we get closer to game time and if/when Carroll is officially ruled out, that should push the line down further. Hopefully, they make Kyrie a game-time call so if he is declared out, we see maximum value on the Hawks 30-45 minutes before tip.
GLTA
:toast:
CLE/ATL UNDER 196.5 x2
CLE/ATL 1Q UNDER 50 (-115) x4
I plan to look for some in-game value on the under, but in case we don't see it early on, I'm playing the 1st quarter under slightly larger than the full game. I also lean strongly to the Hawks on the side. I'm less concerned about Carroll's injury than I am Irving's from line move perspective as Irving being out will carry more weight in the number going up further, while news of Carroll's injury came out shortly after game 1 and that should already be factored into the line. Yes, Carroll is critical to the success of this Hawks team and no Mike Scott or Sefolosha makes this team particularly shallow at a position that is critical from a defensive perspective in matching up with the best player in the NBA, but I believe we will see a resilient Hawks team tonight, with or without Carroll. Good teams, especially those that play a more team-oriented style of basketball, seem to have a habit of stepping up in their first game without their best player and Carroll has been the Hawks best player in the playoffs. Coach Budz is an excellent coach who will find a way to adjust with the available personnel and he probably realizes that their best chance to win is to slow down and control the pace of game tonight. Their chief concern should be to keep LeBron from getting out ahead in transition and converting easy baskets at the rim or kicking it out to Shump/JR/'Dova for transition 3's. To do that, ATL will need to play strong and coordinated team defense, take possessions deep into the shot clock and quickly get back on missed shots. This is a well-coached and disciplined team that will give max effort, one that you can feel confident in betting on even with their best player missing. We missed the chance to get the Hawks at -2 or better, but I think there's a good chance that will resurface before game time for those looking to make a bet on the side before tip. Regardless, the best value will most likely be found during in-game wagering. Expect the public to take the Cavs plus the points as we get closer to game time and if/when Carroll is officially ruled out, that should push the line down further. Hopefully, they make Kyrie a game-time call so if he is declared out, we see maximum value on the Hawks 30-45 minutes before tip.
GLTA
:toast:
What an ending last night! You could definitely argue that we got screwed in not winning -2.5 or that we got real lucky to win at all. Ultimately I'm surprised the Rockets have hung in as well as they have.
Really not sure where I'm leaning tonight yet so I'm looking forward to your thoughts.
Yea, it felt like we got screwed a little bit on the 2.5 when Barnes missed the layup with 8 seconds left, but at the same time, I felt lucky that GS even got that win. Overall, with the team total under in the 2nd half it turned out okay. I wish I had jumped on the in-game under when I saw it at 227 and 223 a couple of times, but I won't complain about ending up in the black on any night, no matter how modest profit.
BOL to you tonight.
Gonna take a shot with this prop. Seems to me like the health of both Kyrie and Carroll impact scoring opportunities for Teague. Somebody is going to have to step up big for the Hawks tonight...
Jeff Teague OVER 17.5 Points -160 x2
Jeff Teague OVER 17.5 Points -160 x2
CLE/ATL UNER 96 2H x5
Looking at Hawks 2H line but 3.5 just seems a little greedy from the books, doesn't it? At 3 I would have bit, but I don't like +1.5 for the game. May go with a little bit of it then see what I can get with in-game. Maybe there's a 3 out there I can still get for the 2H.
Looking at Hawks 2H line but 3.5 just seems a little greedy from the books, doesn't it? At 3 I would have bit, but I don't like +1.5 for the game. May go with a little bit of it then see what I can get with in-game. Maybe there's a 3 out there I can still get for the 2H.
Deezy, nice hit on Golden State last night with the vast majority seemingly on the Rockets. I honestly thought it was going to play out about like it did, and it's real nice to get that rare easy win.
Thoughts on tonight's game three? I'm leaning Hawks plus the points early but am liable to change my mind or lay off altogether. I've been killing it these last couple days (jinx) and wish I'd been posting my plays. 9 just seems like a ton even with the plethora of banged up Hawks. I just don't think home court is an enormous deal anymore in these playoffs outside of Golden State, so I don't see what warrants this big of a swing in lines between the games in Atlanta and this first game in Cleveland. Also wonder if the NBA wants to extend at least one of these series a bit given how anticlimactic this round has been... Could we see a lot of calls go the Hawks way tonight even on the road?
And is there any chance they win outright? I know it seems like a real long shot but +380 (what I'm seeing right now) is a big number. I have the third leg of a three team parlay open (first two are wins) and I'm debating whether/how to fill the final spot. I believe I've read that gambling theory in this situation states that I should consider playing a big ML since I stand to lose so little and win so much, but I also don't want to "ruin" a winning parlay... could easily argue the other way and say take the Cleveland ML and essentially just cash a little more than I would have made from a two-teamer. Anyway I'm rambling. Thoughts? Decent amount of time before tip here to contemplate. Best of luck whatever you do.
:toast:
Thoughts on tonight's game three? I'm leaning Hawks plus the points early but am liable to change my mind or lay off altogether. I've been killing it these last couple days (jinx) and wish I'd been posting my plays. 9 just seems like a ton even with the plethora of banged up Hawks. I just don't think home court is an enormous deal anymore in these playoffs outside of Golden State, so I don't see what warrants this big of a swing in lines between the games in Atlanta and this first game in Cleveland. Also wonder if the NBA wants to extend at least one of these series a bit given how anticlimactic this round has been... Could we see a lot of calls go the Hawks way tonight even on the road?
And is there any chance they win outright? I know it seems like a real long shot but +380 (what I'm seeing right now) is a big number. I have the third leg of a three team parlay open (first two are wins) and I'm debating whether/how to fill the final spot. I believe I've read that gambling theory in this situation states that I should consider playing a big ML since I stand to lose so little and win so much, but I also don't want to "ruin" a winning parlay... could easily argue the other way and say take the Cleveland ML and essentially just cash a little more than I would have made from a two-teamer. Anyway I'm rambling. Thoughts? Decent amount of time before tip here to contemplate. Best of luck whatever you do.
:toast:
Thad,
Sorry, not much time to post thoughts today... didn't even find time to check back in on the total before tip so I could grab a piece of the over. I really liked the 1H over, but missed it. Anyway, I agree with your thoughts and do think the Hawks have a chance to win today, probably better than the odds reflect. I think there's a decent chance they take one of these two in CLE. This team has played so well together all season and is too well-coached to get swept even after a couple injuries.
BOL to you. Glad to hear you've been running well recently. :toast:
I'm doing well this week thanks in large part to those fellas over in the golf forum.
Thanks again Deezy. Was on the same sides as you, plus the Hawks 1H and team total over so I won a bunch last night, but really would have cashed in if they had they pulled that out straight up. Just can't believe they blew a 5 point lead with about a minute in regulation, and that Teague doesn't go to the hoop on that final play (though he still could have easily made that look). So it goes though. Have a couple parlays still left to fill. Let me know what you think today if/when you get some time.
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Hey Thad, not too much in the way of thoughts on tonight's game...
I feel pretty good about the Rockets coming out strong to start, so I'm going pretty large on them in the 1st quarter. Getting five for the game seemed a bit high to me for a team playing with their backs against the wall at home, so I grabbed a little bit there. The Rockets have shown us before that can play with some pride, like in Houston for game 5 of the Clippers series when they were seemingly down on the mat and barely had a pulse after getting blown out in LA to go down 1-3. They were home dogs there as well, with a spread of around 2-3 points, in addition to being dogs at home in game 7. I'm not as confident in the full game, just because I'm just not sure how this group will respond if they get down by a double digit margin in the 2nd half. I'm sticking with the notion that the big comeback in game 6 in LA was an aberration, but at least they were playing that first quarter out with the thought in the back of their minds that if they could pull it out they'd have a game 7 at home. The idea of flying back to Oakland for a game 5 may not seem as appealing when they also have to understand that no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in an NBA playoff series. At the same time, this team did come back from being down 1-3 in the previous series and then the 19 point comeback in LA the next game so you have to think they have a little fight in them, but GS may just overwhelm them over the course of 48 minutes. I wouldn't use the +5 as a closeout for a parlay, but I know most books won't let you use 1Q lines in parlays, so if I was looking to fill an open slot of a parlay I'd use the 1H line or ML, depending on how you see it paying out. I thought about the ML for either the game or half, but at +175 and +140 respectively, I didn't feel that the value was there. It's clear that the books have taken a stance on the Houston ML. If one were leaning the other way in this one, a strong argument could be made that the best value can be found on GSW in the -180 neighborhood.
No 2Q total or 1H team total on GS for me today. I didn't like how the 2Q played out in the last two games as the home team struggled to score in both stanzas. If we see a high scoring 1st quarter or half and GSW is threatening to pull away, you can be sure that I'll be playing on the under either in-game or at the half.
BOL with whatever you decide to go with
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Thanks Deezy. Actually ended up rolling with the Dubs tonight. Just think they come to play and want to close this out. Agree with Houston maybe coming out strong early so laying off the first half bets. More to come later or in game if I have time.
