NBA Playoffs
- Thread starter DZ
- Start date
Well, Cavs come through with the 2Q cover for me. It's a pattern that's shown up throughout the playoffs and in the last few few weeks of the season (excluding games where they were playing for nothing, like those b2b games against BOS right before the playoffs).
Cavs leading, looking like they are going to close out the series here in CHI tonight. Not so fast, though. This team is struggling. Kyrie reinjures his knee (probable to come back) and was already not playing at anywhere close to 100%. LeBron comes up clutching at his back after getting tied up with Hinrich right before the jump ball. Thompson has his shoulder wrapped up with ice whenever he's sitting on the bench, though he's playing well. The only other guy playing well right now is Shumpert (my used-to-be favorite Knick). JR does not look like he's got his head in the game tonight and LeBron isn't playing as aggressively as he needs to be for them to win. This lead has been buoyed by 2nd quarter hot shooting from three for the Cavs and poor shooting from the Bulls, including some missed shots from close range... that should even out over the course of the 2nd half. I'm not especially interested in the 2nd half total because I'm already invested at a nice number in-game, plus the pre-game total of 193, which I feel will still hit. This game will be a tale of two halves, IMO.
Cavs leading, looking like they are going to close out the series here in CHI tonight. Not so fast, though. This team is struggling. Kyrie reinjures his knee (probable to come back) and was already not playing at anywhere close to 100%. LeBron comes up clutching at his back after getting tied up with Hinrich right before the jump ball. Thompson has his shoulder wrapped up with ice whenever he's sitting on the bench, though he's playing well. The only other guy playing well right now is Shumpert (my used-to-be favorite Knick). JR does not look like he's got his head in the game tonight and LeBron isn't playing as aggressively as he needs to be for them to win. This lead has been buoyed by 2nd quarter hot shooting from three for the Cavs and poor shooting from the Bulls, including some missed shots from close range... that should even out over the course of the 2nd half. I'm not especially interested in the 2nd half total because I'm already invested at a nice number in-game, plus the pre-game total of 193, which I feel will still hit. This game will be a tale of two halves, IMO.
I'm looking at it. The numbers are just so damn high. I may consider just paying the Clips -2 for the 2nd quarter and going small or laying off the 2Q and 2H totals. The bookmakers have really caught up and I'm seeing 55.5 for the 2Q, which is causing me pause. I'm already heavily invested in the Clips ML, but not sure posting it here will do anyone any good.
:0074
Both teams not shooting well but CAVS still up by 15... don't see CHI winning tonight, but you could hit your -5 second half
Had +600 but it dropped while hitting submit. Bulls haven't made up much ground so far but I'm just fine with that because I get a nice price on the ML. LeBron is racking up the fouls... 4 now. Kyrie is doubtful to return now. LeBron is still taking I'll-advised jumpers while dellavedova is making floaters off the backboard. All fine with me. Bulls get back into the game soon. They're missing the easy shots but the pace of the game in the 2nd half suits their style of play better. The under is looking a whole lot better now too.
Maybe the Bulls starters should actually be playing in the 4th of a do or die game. That's why the NBA is so lame. All prima donnas. Rose and Gasol should be going all out to win you have all off season to rest. Your bet should have been a good one at that price. Sucks.
I have to admit that I didn't anticipate Dellavedova shooting like Rey Allen from three and Brooks not bothering to guard him. This is a pretty pathetic showing by the Bulls in a must win spot. Every close range shot is rimming out. Have to say I thought that'd even out. Rose warming up on the bike now so that's not good. I guess this was just a bad call by me but it seems like everything is going the Cavs way...50/50 calls, fouls down low, Bulls shots rolling off the rim. Maybe the Bulls show they have some pride here down the stretch. Otherwise, I'm really shocked by this result.
There is no way it gets even remotely close even with an effort at this point. I knew Cavs would take it, but I figured you had the second half line down... it is shocking
As I typed that in the span of 20 seconds, Shumpert hits an impossible turnaround shot from behind the backboard, then Gasol misses a shot that rolls around the rim twice and Dellavedova drops in another floater that was actually partially blocked :lol:
Oh well, you can't beat that shit I guess.
Oh well, you can't beat that shit I guess.
Well the first game went to shit except for the total. Let's go with this for the late game...
LAC -2 2Q (-115) x4
HOU/LAC OVER 55 2Q (-115) x2
LAC ML -420 x10 :scared
That last one is for the faint of heart but I'm confident they close it out tonight.
LAC -2 2Q (-115) x4
HOU/LAC OVER 55 2Q (-115) x2
LAC ML -420 x10 :scared
That last one is for the faint of heart but I'm confident they close it out tonight.
i'm with you, but I wonder if we let the Live ML play go and see if we can get a better price?
Yea I'm looking for that too but I have lower limits on the book I have with live betting.
Well, last night sucked to say the least. I honestly shut off the game after CP3 put the Clips up by 19 on a driving end-to-end layup with a few minutes left in the 3rd, so I was shocked to say the least when I woke this morning to see the box score. After going back and looking at the play-by-play, I guess that was actually the turning point in the game for the Rockets, because after that, they outscored the Clippers 49-18 the rest of the way. I don't really want to rehash what happened. It was an epic collapse, the kind you see once in a decade, maybe. I read this today, which really puts in perspective just how unlikely the comeback was:
"In their history -- one that dates to San Diego in 1967 and features legendary players such as Calvin Murphy, Clyde Drexler, Hakeem Olajuwon and hundreds more on their roster -- the Rockets had never won a playoff game when trailing by 10 points entering the fourth quarter (0-49)." - Calvin Watkins, ESPN Staff Writer
Anyway, when you lose like that, I think that taking a player's mindset can be beneficial when continuing to handicapping the rest of the playoffs - it's just one night. Yes, it was two big losses (both very surprising), but you've got to put it out of your mind and move on. I've taken my lumps (-70 units the last three nights) and lost my entire bankroll (and then some) that I've built up in the Playoffs. Just have to forget it. Thankfully, I've done well enough in bases and pucks recently to offset some of the losses in hoops. On to the next round of games and I'm sorry for anyone who followed over the past few days.
Starting with this for tonight:
GSW/MEM UNDER 194 x3
Every game has gone under in this series, so far, with the first 3 games finishing at 187, 187 & 188 and the last two dipping to 185 and 176. It looks to be following the typical pattern of games playing to a lower total the playoff series goes deeper and teams continue to make the necessary defensive adjustments. The average total score of the two games in Memphis was 186.5 and I think that would be a fair line for this game, so this looks to me like were getting about 7 points of value on the total. Also working in favor of the under is tonight's game is being played on the court of the team that prefers to play a lower scoring grind-it-out style and that same team has their best defensive player returning in Tony Allen, who has guarded Klay Thompson very well in this series (I did well playing over his scoring and 3pt totals in the game Tony sat out). I'll be looking to get more down on the under should the game start out at a fast pace and we see some value better than 194. I also lean to the Grizzlies on the side and ML, but would only consider stepping in with a play if I can get 6 or better before tip. The prudent thing to do would be to wait until the game starts to watch and see how Kerr decides to handle the defensive rotations while Tony Allen is on the floor because that played a big role in changing the tide for GS defensively (see posts #157 & #153 of this thread for more on that) and helped kick-start their offense in Memphis in game 4. In summary, I will be following the in-running action for value on the under and a possible play on Memphis. I'm also looking for a plus-number on the Wizards in-game, but won't be holding my breath as this looks like another closely-contested game in which the score should remain tight most, if not all of the way. Rooting for my futures on the Wiz to stay alive and damn you Horford for tipping in that ball at the buzzer in game 5.
"In their history -- one that dates to San Diego in 1967 and features legendary players such as Calvin Murphy, Clyde Drexler, Hakeem Olajuwon and hundreds more on their roster -- the Rockets had never won a playoff game when trailing by 10 points entering the fourth quarter (0-49)." - Calvin Watkins, ESPN Staff Writer
Anyway, when you lose like that, I think that taking a player's mindset can be beneficial when continuing to handicapping the rest of the playoffs - it's just one night. Yes, it was two big losses (both very surprising), but you've got to put it out of your mind and move on. I've taken my lumps (-70 units the last three nights) and lost my entire bankroll (and then some) that I've built up in the Playoffs. Just have to forget it. Thankfully, I've done well enough in bases and pucks recently to offset some of the losses in hoops. On to the next round of games and I'm sorry for anyone who followed over the past few days.
Starting with this for tonight:
GSW/MEM UNDER 194 x3
Every game has gone under in this series, so far, with the first 3 games finishing at 187, 187 & 188 and the last two dipping to 185 and 176. It looks to be following the typical pattern of games playing to a lower total the playoff series goes deeper and teams continue to make the necessary defensive adjustments. The average total score of the two games in Memphis was 186.5 and I think that would be a fair line for this game, so this looks to me like were getting about 7 points of value on the total. Also working in favor of the under is tonight's game is being played on the court of the team that prefers to play a lower scoring grind-it-out style and that same team has their best defensive player returning in Tony Allen, who has guarded Klay Thompson very well in this series (I did well playing over his scoring and 3pt totals in the game Tony sat out). I'll be looking to get more down on the under should the game start out at a fast pace and we see some value better than 194. I also lean to the Grizzlies on the side and ML, but would only consider stepping in with a play if I can get 6 or better before tip. The prudent thing to do would be to wait until the game starts to watch and see how Kerr decides to handle the defensive rotations while Tony Allen is on the floor because that played a big role in changing the tide for GS defensively (see posts #157 & #153 of this thread for more on that) and helped kick-start their offense in Memphis in game 4. In summary, I will be following the in-running action for value on the under and a possible play on Memphis. I'm also looking for a plus-number on the Wizards in-game, but won't be holding my breath as this looks like another closely-contested game in which the score should remain tight most, if not all of the way. Rooting for my futures on the Wiz to stay alive and damn you Horford for tipping in that ball at the buzzer in game 5.
